AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research – March 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 7, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during March 2014. There are 162 papers, which makes it about 5.2 papers per day.


Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

Intensified warming of the Arctic: Causes and impacts on middle latitudes

Comparison of land skin temperature from a land model, remote sensing, and in-situ measurement

Trends in air temperature in the United Kingdom using gridded data series from 1910 to 2011

Changes in the frequency of extreme temperature records for Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Global and regional variability in marine surface temperatures

Modeling sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Sea surface temperature and salinity seasonal changes in the western Solomon and Bismarck Seas

A statistical analysis of sea temperature data

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate

Trends in the daily and extreme temperatures in the Qiantang River basin, China

Variability of temperature extremes in the Yellow River basin during 1961–2011

Trends in Extreme United States Temperatures

Influence of solar variability on the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere from 2002 to 2014

The relative importance of climate change and shrub encroachment on nocturnal warming in the southwestern United States

Urban surface temperature behaviour and heat island effect in a tropical planned city

Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperatures at Shijiazhuang, North China

Trajectory sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy (open access)

Historical and future learning about climate Sensitivity

Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake

Solar Absorption over Europe from collocated surface and satellite observations

Aerosol effects on convective clouds in Nordic background air (open access)

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice (open access)

Response of surface air temperature to small-scale land clearing across latitudes (open access)

Where does the optically detectable aerosol in the European Arctic come from? (open access)

Interannual Variability of The Earth’s Spectral Solar Reflectance From Measurements And Simulations

Forcings and feedbacks in the GeoMIP ensemble for a reduction in solar irradiance and increase in CO2

Influence of cloud phase composition on climate feedbacks

Time-scale and state dependence of the carbon-cycle feedback to climate

The viscosity effect on marine particle flux – a climate relevant negative feedback mechanism

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming (open access)

Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models (open access)

Stable isotopic compositions of precipitation in China (open access)

How Will Orographic Precipitation Respond to Surface Warming?

Precipitation response to La Niña and global warming in the Indo-Pacific

Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming (open access)

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale (open access)

Projections of climate change impacts on floods and droughts in Germany

Iberian extreme precipitation 1855/1856: an analysis from early instrumental observations and documentary sources

Global warming and 21st century drying

Robust spring drying in the Southwestern US and seasonal migration of wet/dry patterns in a warmer climate

Attribution of extreme weather to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

At what time of day do daily extreme near-surface wind speeds occur?

Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States (open access)

Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe

Sharp rise in hurricane and cyclone count during the last century

A Reanalysis of the 1931 to 1943 Atlantic Hurricane Database

Toward a record of Central Pacific El Niño events since 1880

A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Niño

ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP5 Models

The influence of different El Niño types on global average temperature

On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO

The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4

Eastward shift of Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO

Further observational evidence of Hadley cell widening in the Southern Hemisphere

Can sparse proxy data constrain the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation? (open access)

The Atlantic Overturning Circulation: More evidence of variability and links to climate (open access)

Wind-forced interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking (open access)

HFC-43-10mee atmospheric abundances and global emission estimates

Newly detected ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere

Uncertainty analysis of projections of ozone-depleting substances (open access)

Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width

Observed Changes in False Springs over the Contiguous United States

On the counter-radiation of the atmosphere (open access, Ångström, 1916, now available in English)

Atmospheric thermal radiation – from historical measurements to investigations of the Earth’s greenhouse effect

Theoretical Aspects of Variability and Predictability in Weather and Climate Systems (open access)

High predictability of the winter Euro–Atlantic climate from cryospheric variability

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Estimation of the mean depth of boreal lakes for use in numerical weather prediction and climate modelling (open access)


Weighing the importance of surface forcing on sea ice—A September 2007 modeling study

Glacier retreat and lakes in Cordillera Vilcanota, northern central Andes, Peru (open access)

Sea ice mass balance observations from the North Pole Environmental Observatory

Significant groundwater contribution to Antarctic ice streams hydrologic budget

Reconstructing lake ice cover in subarctic lakes using a diatom-based inference model

Poleward ocean heat transports, sea ice processes and Arctic sea ice variability

Progressive increase in number and volume of ice-marginal lakes on the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Use of scenarios and strategic planning to explore an uncertain future in Greenland

Variability and Trends in Anticyclonic Circulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet, 1948-2013

Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions

Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback (open access)

Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950

Disappearing semi-permanent snow in the High Arctic and its consequences

Recent retreat of major outlet glaciers on Novaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic, influenced by fjord geometry and sea-ice conditions

Modelling of Kealey Ice Rise, Antarctica, reveals stable ice-flow conditions in East Ellsworth Land over millennia

Geometric and oceanographic controls on melting beneath Pine Island Glacier

Effects of sea surface warming on marine plankton

Elevated carbon dioxide and ozone alter productivity and ecosystem carbon content in northern temperate forests

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production (open access)

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change

Dieback of the boreal forest induced by heat and drought stress may proceed more rapidly than anticipated

Thermally tolerant corals have limited capacity to acclimatize to future warming

Illuminating geographical patterns in species’ range shifts

Effect of climate change on soil organic carbon in Inner Mongolia

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology

The effects of coral bleaching on settlement preferences and growth of juvenile butterflyfishes

Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

The relative importance of climate and vegetation properties on patterns of North American breeding bird species richness (open access)

Changes in first flowering dates and flowering duration of 232 plant species on the island of Guernsey

Impact of sea-Level rise on coastal wetlands

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change (open access)

Contemporary evolution of an invasive grass in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 at a Mojave Desert FACE site (open access)

Response of benthic foraminifera to ocean acidification in their natural sediment environment: a long-term culturing experiment (open access)

Climate change may have little effect on global risk of potato late blight

The Arctic freshwater cycle during a naturally and an anthropogenically induced warm climate

Calcium carbonate dissolution in the upper 1000 m of the eastern North Atlantic

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise

Managing shoreline retreat: a US perspective

The impact of heat waves on children’s health: a systematic review

Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise (open access)

Effect of Asian dust storms on mortality in three Asian cities

Synoptic warming trends across the US Midwest and implications to human health

Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria

Ozone weekend effects in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan area, China (open access)

Effect of climate change on corrosion rates of structures in Australia

Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures (open access)

Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects

Two methods to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Mexican agricultural sector


Organic carbon stocks and sequestration rates of forest soils in Germany

Do grasslands act as a perpetual sink for carbon?

Temperature and peat type control CO2 and CH4 production in Alaskan permafrost peats

North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions (open access)

Increasing carbon inventory of the intermediate layers of the Arctic Ocean

How deep is deep enough? Ocean iron fertilization and carbon sequestration in the Southern Ocean

Implications for C mitigation policy under the threats of a substantial permafrost methane release

Global annual methane emission rate derived from its current atmospheric mixing ratio and estimated lifetime (open access)

Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through strategic management of highway pavement roughness (open access)

Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030 (open access)

Slower ozone production in Houston, Texas following emission reductions (open access)

The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets (open access)

Roles of transport and chemistry processes in global ozone change on interannual and multi-decadal time scales

Post-Fukushima Japan: The continuing nuclear controversy

The energy and CO2 emissions impact of renewable energy development in China

Effects of offshore wind farms on marine wildlife—a generalized impact assessment (open access)

Sustainability of forest bioenergy in Europe: land-use-related carbon dioxide emissions of forest harvest residues

Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

The climatic effects of modifying cirrus clouds in a climate engineering framework

Do individuals care about fairness in burden sharing for climate change mitigation?

Is there a place for culture in life cycle sustainability assessment?

Public microblogging on climate change: One year of Twitter worldwide

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty

Funding public adaptation to climate-related disasters. Estimates for a global fund

Coral reef sustainability through adaptation: glimmer of hope or persistent mirage?

Biochar as a global change adaptation: predicting biochar impacts on crop productivity and soil quality

What drives national adaptation? A global assessment (open access)


Weakening of the East Asian Summer Monsoon at 1000-1100 AD within the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium

Direct evidence of central European forest refugia during the last glacial period

Positive vegetation–climate feedback during early Eocene (open access)

Selective extinction of Triassic marine reptiles during long-term sea-level changes illuminated by seawater strontium isotopes

Climate change at the end of the Old Kingdom in Egypt around 4200 BP

Signals of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age from southwestern Madhya Pradesh (India)

An assessment of growth ring identification in subtropical forests from northwestern Argentina

Linking two centuries of tree growth and glacier dynamics with climate changes in Kamchatka

Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea


Use of coal in the Bronze Age in China

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Papers on GHG emissions from bioenergy related land-use

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 10, 2014

This is a list of papers on GHG emissions from bioenergy related land-use. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

Damaged forests provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change – Lamers et al. (2014) “British Columbia (BC) forests are estimated to have become a net carbon source in recent years due to tree death and decay caused primarily by mountain pine beetle (MPB) and related post-harvest slash burning practices. BC forest biomass has also become a major source of wood pellets, exported primarily for bioenergy to Europe, although the sustainability and net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy in general are the subject of current debate. We simulated the temporal carbon balance of BC wood pellets against different reference scenarios for forests affected by MPB in the interior BC timber harvesting area using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We evaluated the carbon dynamics for different insect-mortality levels, at the stand- and landscape level, taking into account carbon storage in the ecosystem, wood products and fossil fuel displacement. Our results indicate that current harvesting practices, in which slash is burnt and only sawdust used for pellet production, require between 20–25 years for beetle-impacted pine and 37–39 years for spruce-dominated systems to reach pre-harvest carbon levels (i.e. break-even) at the stand-level. Using pellets made from logging slash to replace coal creates immediate net carbon benefits to the atmosphere of 17–21 tonnes C ha−1, shortening these break-even times by 9–20 years and resulting in an instant carbon break-even level on stands most severely impacted by the beetle. Harvesting pine dominated sites for timber while using slash for bioenergy was also found to be more carbon beneficial than a protection reference scenario on both stand- and landscape level. However, harvesting stands exclusively for bioenergy resulted in a net carbon source unless the system contained a high proportion of dead trees (>85%). Systems with higher proportions of living trees provide a greater climate change mitigation if used for long lived wood products.” Lamers, P., Junginger, M., Dymond, C. C. and Faaij, A. (2014), Damaged forests provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change. GCB Bioenergy, 6: 44–60. doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12055. [Full text]

Sequester or substitute—Consequences of increased production of wood based energy on the carbon balance in Finland – Kallio et al. (2013) “Forests play an important role in mitigating climate change. Forests can sequester carbon from the atmosphere and provide biomass, which can be used to substitute for fossil fuels or energy-intensive materials. International climate policies favor the use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels rather than using forests as carbon sink. We examine the trade off between sequestering carbon in forests and substituting wood for fossil fuels in Finland. For Finland to meet its EU targets for the use of renewable energy by 2020, a considerable increase in the use of wood for energy is necessary. We compare scenarios in which the wood energy targets are fully or partially met to a reference case where policies favoring wood based energy production are removed. Three models are used to project fossil fuel substitution and changes in forest carbon sinks in the scenarios through 2035. Finnish forests are a growing carbon sink in all scenarios. However, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be higher in the medium term if Finland achieves its current wood energy targets than if the use of energy wood stagnates or decreases. The volume of GHG emissions avoided by replacing coal, peat and fossil diesel with wood is outweighed by the loss in carbon sequestered in forests due to increased biomass removals. Therefore, the current wood energy targets seem excessive and harmful to the climate. In particular, biodiesel production has a significant, negative impact on net emissions in the period considered. However, we did not consider risks such as forest fires, wind damage and diseases, which might weaken the sequestration policy. The potential albedo impacts of harvesting the forests were not considered either.” A.M.I. Kallio, O. Salminen, R. Sievänen, Journal of Forest Economics, Volume 19, Issue 4, December 2013, Pages 402–415,

Effects of stump extraction on the carbon sequestration in Norway spruce forest ecosystems under varying thinning regimes with implications for fossil fuel substitution – Alam et al. (2013) “The overall aim of this work was to assess the effects of stump and root extraction on the long-term carbon sequestration and average carbon storage in the integrated production of energy biomass and stemwood (pulpwood and sawlogs) under different thinning options (unthinned, current thinning and 30% increased thinning thresholds from current thresholds). The growth and development of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) stands on a fertile site (Oxalis-myrtillus) in central Finland (Joensuu region: 62˚39΄N, 29˚37΄E) was simulated for two consecutive rotation periods (80 + 80 years/160 years). Stemwood and energy biomass production, carbon sequestration, and average storage and emission dynamics related to the entire production process of biomass were assessed. The assessment was done by employing a life cycle assessment tool, which combines simulation outputs from an ecosystem model and the related technosystem emissions. It was found that stump and root harvesting constituted 21–36% of the total biomass production (energy biomass and stemwood) depending on the thinning regimes and rotation period. No considerable effect was found in stemwood production when stump and root extraction was compared to the regime in which stumps and roots were left at the site. Stump and root extraction did not affect carbon sequestration on the following rotation and, in fact, an increase in forest growth was found for the unthinned and 30% increased thresholds compared to the first rotation. The results also showed that if current thinning threshold is increased, win-win situations are possible, especially when climate change mitigation is the main concern. The substitution of coal with energy biomass is possible without reducing carbon storage in the forest ecosystem. The utilization of energy biomass, including stumps and roots, instead of coal could reduce up to 33% of emissions over two rotation periods depending on the thinning regimes. Even if stumps and roots were excluded, a maximum of 19% carbon emissions could be reduced by using only logging residues.” Alam, A., Kellomäki, S., Kilpeläinen, A. and Strandman, H. (2013), Effects of stump extraction on the carbon sequestration in Norway spruce forest ecosystems under varying thinning regimes with implications for fossil fuel substitution. GCB Bioenergy, 5: 445–458. doi: 10.1111/gcbb.12010.

The ‘debt’ is in the detail: A synthesis of recent temporal forest carbon analyses on woody biomass for energy – Lamers & Junginger (2013) “The temporal imbalance between the release and sequestration of forest carbon has raised a fundamental concern about the climate mitigation potential of forest biomass for energy. The potential carbon debt caused by harvest and the resulting time spans needed to reach pre-harvest carbon levels (payback) or those of a reference case (parity) have become important parameters for climate and bioenergy policy developments. The present range of analyses however varies in assumptions, regional scopes, and conclusions. Comparing these modeling efforts, we reveal that they apply different principle modeling frameworks while results are largely affected by the same parameters. The size of the carbon debt is mostly determined by the type and amount of biomass harvested and whether land-use change emissions need to be accounted for. Payback times are mainly determined by plant growth rates, i.e. the forest biome, tree species, site productivity and management. Parity times are primarily influenced by the choice and construction of the reference scenario and fossil carbon displacement efficiencies. Using small residual biomass (harvesting/processing), deadwood from highly insect-infected sites, or new plantations on highly productive or marginal land offers (almost) immediate net carbon benefits. Their eventual climate mitigation potential however is determined by the effectiveness of the fossil fuel displacement. We deem it therefore unsuitable to define political guidance by feedstock alone. Current global wood pellet production is predominantly residue based. Production increases based on low-grade stemwood are expected in regions with a downturn in the local wood product sector, highlighting the importance of accounting for regional forest carbon trends.” Lamers, P. and Junginger, M. (2013), The ‘debt’ is in the detail: A synthesis of recent temporal forest carbon analyses on woody biomass for energy. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref., 7: 373–385. doi: 10.1002/bbb.1407.

Carbon dioxide emissions from wood fuels in Sweden 1980–2100 – Wibe (2012) “It is often assumed that wood fuels are carbon neutral. This is approximately true in the very long run since the emissions from burning wood fuels are compensated by the uptake from new trees. But it is not true in the short- and the medium term due to a number of factors. This problem is analyzed in detail in this paper, where the net carbon (dioxide) effect of using wood residues in Sweden 1980–2100 is calculated. Two important implications of the program for using wood fuels are considered: (i) the decrease of carbon stored in logging residues due to a faster transformation to carbon dioxide and (ii) delayed growth of new forest generations when logging residues are removed from the forest and used as fuel. The effects of both these factors are calculated (and projected) for the period 1980–2100. The main result is that wood fuels (in the form of wood residues) emits about 60% of the carbon dioxide that would have been emitted if the corresponding amount of energy would, have been produced by oil. One policy implication of this is that emissions from wood fuels should not, as is now the practice, be ignored and by definition equaled to zero, in national and international statistics of green house gas emissions.” Sören Wibe, Journal of Forest Economics, Volume 18, Issue 2, April 2012, Pages 123–130,

Net atmospheric impacts of forest bioenergy production and utilization in Finnish boreal conditions – Kilpeläinen et al. (2012) “The net CO2 exchange of forests was investigated to study net atmospheric impact of forest bioenergy production (BP) and utilization in Finnish boreal conditions. Net CO2 exchange was simulated with a life cycle assessment tool over a 90-year period and over the whole Finland based on National Forest Inventory data. The difference in the net exchanges between the traditional timber production (TP) and BP regime was considered the net atmospheric impact of forest bioenergy utilization. According to the results, forests became net sources of CO2 after about 20 years of simulation, and the net exchange was higher in the BP regime than in the TP regime until the middle of the simulation period. From 2040 onwards, the net exchange started to decrease in both regimes and became higher in the TP regime, excluding the last decade of the simulation. The shift of forests to becoming a CO2 source reflected the decrease in CO2 sequestration due to the increasing share of recently harvested and seedling stands that are acting as sources of CO2, and an increase of emissions from degradation of wood products. When expressed in terms of radiative forcing, the net atmospheric impact was on average 19% less for bioenergy compared with that for coal energy over the whole simulation period. The results show the importance of time dependence when considering dynamic forest ecosystems in BP and climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the results emphasize the dualistic role and possibilities of forest management in controlling the build and release of carbon into and from the stocks and in controlling the rate of the build speed, i.e. growth. This information is needed in identifying the capability and possibilities of ecosystems to produce biomass for energy, alongside other products and ecosystem services (e.g. pulp wood and timber), and simultaneously to mitigate climate change.” Kilpeläinen, A., Kellomäki, S. and Strandman, H. (2012), Net atmospheric impacts of forest bioenergy production and utilization in Finnish boreal conditions. GCB Bioenergy, 4: 811–817. doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2012.01161.x.

Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel – Zanchi et al. (2012) “Under the current accounting systems, emissions produced when biomass is burnt for energy are accounted as zero, resulting in what is referred to as the ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption. However, if current harvest levels are increased to produce more bioenergy, carbon that would have been stored in the biosphere might be instead released in the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comparative approach that considers emissions under alternative energy supply options. This approach shows that the emission benefits of bioenergy compared to use of fossil fuel are time-dependent. It emerges that the assumption that bioenergy always results in zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to use of fossil fuels can be misleading, particularly in the context of short-to-medium term goals. While it is clear that all sources of woody bioenergy from sustainably managed forests will produce emission reductions in the long term, different woody biomass sources have various impacts in the short-medium term. The study shows that the use of forest residues that are easily decomposable can produce GHG benefits compared to use of fossil fuels from the beginning of their use and that biomass from dedicated plantations established on marginal land can be carbon neutral from the beginning of its use. However, the risk of short-to-medium term negative impacts is high when additional fellings are extracted to produce bioenergy and the proportion of felled biomass used for bioenergy is low, or when land with high C stocks is converted to low productivity bioenergy plantations. The method used in the study provides an instrument to identify the time-dependent pattern of emission reductions for alternative bioenergy sources. In this way, decision makers can evaluate which bioenergy options are most beneficial for meeting short-term GHG emission reduction goals and which ones are more appropriate for medium to longer term objectives.” Zanchi, G., Pena, N. and Bird, N. (2012), Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel. GCB Bioenergy, 4: 761–772. doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01149.x.

Harvesting in boreal forests and the biofuel carbon debt – Holtsmark (2012) “Owing to the extensive critique of food-crop-based biofuels, attention has turned toward second-generation wood-based biofuels. A question is therefore whether timber taken from the vast boreal forests on an increasing scale should serve as a source of wood-based biofuels and whether this will be effective climate policy. In a typical boreal forest, it takes 70–120 years before a stand of trees is mature. When this time lag and the dynamics of boreal forests more generally are taken into account, it follows that a high level of harvest means that the carbon stock in the forest stabilizes at a lower level. Therefore, wood harvesting is not a carbon-neutral activity. Through model simulations, it is estimated that an increased harvest of a boreal forest will create a biofuel carbon debt that takes 190–340 years to repay. The length of the payback time is sensitive to the type of fossil fuels that wood energy replaces.” Bjart Holtsmark, Climatic Change, May 2012, Volume 112, Issue 2, pp 415-428, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0222-6. [Full text]

Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon – Don et al. (2012) “Bioenergy from crops is expected to make a considerable contribution to climate change mitigation. However, bioenergy is not necessarily carbon neutral because emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 during crop production may reduce or completely counterbalance CO2 savings of the substituted fossil fuels. These greenhouse gases (GHGs) need to be included into the carbon footprint calculation of different bioenergy crops under a range of soil conditions and management practices. This review compiles existing knowledge on agronomic and environmental constraints and GHG balances of the major European bioenergy crops, although it focuses on dedicated perennial crops such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice species. Such second-generation crops account for only 3% of the current European bioenergy production, but field data suggest they emit 40% to >99% less N2O than conventional annual crops. This is a result of lower fertilizer requirements as well as a higher N-use efficiency, due to effective N-recycling. Perennial energy crops have the potential to sequester additional carbon in soil biomass if established on former cropland (0.44 Mg soil C ha−1 yr−1 for poplar and willow and 0.66 Mg soil C ha−1 yr−1 for Miscanthus). However, there was no positive or even negative effects on the C balance if energy crops are established on former grassland. Increased bioenergy production may also result in direct and indirect land-use changes with potential high C losses when native vegetation is converted to annual crops. Although dedicated perennial energy crops have a high potential to improve the GHG balance of bioenergy production, several agronomic and economic constraints still have to be overcome.” Don, A., Osborne, B., Hastings, A., Skiba, U., Carter, M. S., Drewer, J., Flessa, H., Freibauer, A., Hyvönen, N., Jones, M. B., Lanigan, G. J., Mander, Ü., Monti, A., Djomo, S. N., Valentine, J., Walter, K., Zegada-Lizarazu, W. and Zenone, T. (2012), Land-use change to bioenergy production in Europe: implications for the greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon. GCB Bioenergy, 4: 372–391. doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2011.01116.x.

Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use – Pingoud et al. (2012) “A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWPbio and GWPbiouse, are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.” Kim Pingoud, Tommi Ekholm, Ilkka Savolainen, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, April 2012, Volume 17, Issue 4, pp 369-386, DOI: 10.1007/s11027-011-9331-9.

Forest Bioenergy or Forest Carbon? Assessing Trade-Offs in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation with Wood-Based Fuels – McKechnie et al. (2011) “The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16−38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.” Jon McKechnie, Steve Colombo, Jiaxin Chen, Warren Mabee, and Heather L. MacLean, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (2), pp 789–795, DOI: 10.1021/es1024004. [Full text]

Paying for forest carbon or stimulating fuelwood demand? Insights from the French Forest Sector Model – Lecocq et al. (2011) “As European countries move towards steeper cuts in greenhouse gases emissions, questions are mounting, in the forest sector, about the best balance between policies that favor carbon sequestration in biomass, and policies that favor fossil-fuel substitution, with potentially conflicting implications for forest management. We provide insights on this debate by comparing the environmental and economic implications for the French forest sector of a “stock” policy (payment for sequestration in situ), a “substitution” policy (subsidy to fuelwood consumption), and a combination thereof – all calibrated on the same price of carbon. To do so, we use the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM), which combines a dynamic model of French timber resource and a dynamic partial-equilibrium model of the French forest sector. Simulations over the 2010–2020 period show that the stock policy is the only one that performs better than business-as-usual in terms of carbon. In the substitution policy, cumulative substitution benefits are not sufficient to offset carbon losses in standing forests over this biologically short, but politically relevant period of time. And the combination policy does not perform better. However, the stock policy has negative impacts on consumers welfare, its costs are increasing over time as carbon is accumulated, and it raises political economy questions about the negotiability of the reference against which excess carbon is measured.” Franck Lecocq, Sylvain Caurla, Philippe Delacote, Ahmed Barkaouia, Alexandre Sauquet, Journal of Forest Economics, Volume 17, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 157–168,

Agricultural crop-based biofuels – resource efficiency and environmental performance including direct land use changes – Börjesson & Tufvesson (2011) “This paper analyses biofuels from agricultural crops in northern Europe regarding area and energy efficiency, greenhouse gases and eutrophication. The overall findings are that direct land use changes have a significant impact on GHG balances and eutrophication for all biofuels, the choice of calculation methods when by-products are included affecting the performance of food crop-based biofuels considerably, and the technical design of production systems may in specific cases be of major importance. The presented results are essential knowledge for the development of certification systems. Indirect land use changes are recognised but not included due to current scientific and methodological deficiencies.” Pål Börjesson, Linda M. Tufvesson, Journal of Cleaner Production, Volume 19, Issues 2–3, January–February 2011, Pages 108–120,

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues – Repo et al. (2011) “Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem-only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average-sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO2 eq. MWh−1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO2 eq. MWh−1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land-use-related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO2 emission into the atmosphere.” Repo, A., Tuomi, M. and Liski, J. (2011), Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues. GCB Bioenergy, 3: 107–115. doi: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2010.01065.x.

From the global efforts on certification of bioenergy towards an integrated approach based on sustainable land use planning – van Dam et al. (2010) “This paper presents an overview of 67 ongoing certification initiatives to safeguard the sustainability of bioenergy. Most recent initiatives are focused on the sustainability of liquid biofuels. Content-wise, most of these initiatives have mainly included environmental principles. Despite serious concerns in various parts of the world on the socio-economic impacts of bioenergy production, these are generally not included in existing bioenergy initiatives. At the same time, the overview shows a strong proliferation of standards. The overview shows that certification has the potential to influence direct, local impacts related to environmental and social effects of direct bioenergy production. Key recommendations to come to an efficient certification system include the need for further harmonization, availability of reliable data and linking indicators on a micro, meso and macro levels. Considering the multiple spatial scales, certification should be combined with additional measurements and tools on a regional, national and international level. The role of bioenergy production on indirect land use change (ILUC) is still very uncertain and current initiatives have rarely captured impacts from ILUC in their standards. Addressing unwanted LUC requires first of all sustainable land use production and good governance, regardless of the end-use of the product. It is therefore recommended to extend measures to mitigate impacts from LUC to other lands and feedstock.” J. van Dam, M. Junginger, A.P.C. Faaij, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 14, Issue 9, December 2010, Pages 2445–2472,

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated – Plevin et al. (2010) “The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions induced by increased biofuel consumption are highly uncertain: individual estimates vary from each other and each has a wide intrinsic error band. Using a reduced-form model, we estimated that the bounding range for emissions from indirect land-use change (ILUC) from US corn ethanol expansion was 10 to 340 g CO2 MJ−1. Considering various probability distributions to model parameters, the broadest 95% central interval, i.e., between the 2.5 and 97.5%ile values, ranged from 21 to 142 g CO2e MJ−1. ILUC emissions from US corn ethanol expansion thus range from small, but not negligible, to several times greater than the life cycle emissions of gasoline. The ILUC emissions estimates of 30 g CO2 MJ−1 for the California Air Resources Board and 34 g CO2e MJ−1 by USEPA (for 2022) are at the low end of the plausible range. The lack of data and understanding (epistemic uncertainty) prevents convergence of judgment on a central value for ILUC emissions. The complexity of the global system being modeled suggests that this range is unlikely to narrow substantially in the near future. Fuel policies that require narrow bounds around point estimates of life cycle GHG emissions are thus incompatible with current and anticipated modeling capabilities. Alternative policies that address the risks associated with uncertainty are more likely to achieve GHG reductions.” Richard J. Plevin, Michael O’Hare, Andrew D. Jones, Margaret S. Torn, and Holly K. Gibbs, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2010, 44 (21), pp 8015–8021, DOI: 10.1021/es101946t. [Full text]

Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-Mediated Responses – Hertel et al. (2010) “Releases of greenhouse gases (GHG) from indirect land-use change triggered by crop-based biofuels have taken center stage in the debate over the role of biofuels in climate policy and energy security. This article analyzes these releases for maize ethanol produced in the United States. Factoring market-mediated responses and by-product use into our analysis reduces cropland conversion by 72% from the land used for the ethanol feedstock. Consequently, the associated GHG release estimated in our framework is 800 grams of carbon dioxide per megajoule (MJ); 27 grams per MJ per year, over 30 years of ethanol production, or roughly a quarter of the only other published estimate of releases attributable to changes in indirect land use. Nonetheless, 800 grams are enough to cancel out the benefits that corn ethanol has on global warming, thereby limiting its potential contribution in the context of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard.” Thomas W. Hertel , Alla A. Golub , Andrew D. Jones , Michael O’Hare , Richard J. Plevin and Daniel M. Kammen, BioScience 60(3):223-231. 2010, doi: [Full text]

Direct and indirect land-use competition issues for energy crops and their sustainable production – an overview – Fritsche et al. (2010) “Biofuel production from energy crops is land-use intensive. Land-use change (LUC) associated with bioenergy cropping impacts on the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, both directly and indirectly. Land-use conversion can also impact on biodiversity. The current state of quantifying GHG emissions relating to direct and indirect land-use change (iLUC) from biomass produced for liquid biofuels or bioenergy is reviewed. Several options for reducing iLUC are discussed, and recommendations made for considering LUC in bioenergy and biofuel policies. Land used for energy cropping is subject to competing demands for conventional agriculture and forest production, as well as for nature protection and conservation. Biomass to be used for bioenergy and biofuels should therefore be produced primarily from excess farm and forest residues or from land not required for food and fiber production. The overall efficiency of biomass production, conversion, and use should be increased where possible in order to further reduce land competition and the related direct and iLUC risks. This review of several varying approaches to iLUC substantiates that, in principle, GHG emissions can be quantified and reductions implemented by appropriate policies. Such approaches can (and should) be refined and substantiated using better data on direct LUC trends from global monitoring, and be further improved by adding more accurate estimates of future trade patterns where appropriate. This brief discussion of current policies and options to reduce iLUC has identified a variety of approaches and options so that a quantified iLUC factor could be translated into practical regulations – both mandatory and voluntary – with few restrictions. Depending on the future development of energy cropping systems and yield improvements, sustainable bioenergy production could make a significant contribution to the future global energy demand.” Fritsche, U. R., Sims, R. E. H. and Monti, A. (2010), Direct and indirect land-use competition issues for energy crops and their sustainable production – an overview. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref., 4: 692–704. doi: 10.1002/bbb.258. [Full text]

Proper accounting for time increases crop-based biofuels’ greenhouse gas deficit versus petroleum – O’Hare et al. (2009) “The global warming intensities of crop-based biofuels and fossil fuels differ not only in amount but also in their discharge patterns over time. Early discharges, for example, from market-mediated land use change, will have created more global warming by any time in the future than later discharges, owing to the slow decay of atmospheric CO2. A spreadsheet model of this process, BTIME, captures this important time pattern effect using the Bern CO2 decay model to allow fuels to be compared for policy decisions on the basis of their real warming effects with a variety of user-supplied parameter values. The model also allows economic discounting of climate effects extended far into the future. Compared to approaches that simply sum greenhouse gas emissions over time, recognizing the physics of atmospheric CO2 decay significantly increases the deficit relative to fossil fuel of any biofuel causing land use change.” M O’Hare et al 2009 Environ. Res. Lett. 4 024001 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024001. [Full text]

Set-asides can be better climate investment than corn ethanol – Piñeiro et al. (2009)

Although various studies have shown that corn ethanol reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuel use, many of these studies fail to include how land-use history affects the net carbon balance through changes in soil carbon content. We evaluated the effectiveness and economic value of corn and cellulosic ethanol production for reducing net GHG emissions when produced on lands with different land-use histories, comparing these strategies with reductions achieved by set-aside programs such as the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Depending on prior land use, our analysis shows that C releases from the soil after planting corn for ethanol may in some cases completely offset C gains attributed to biofuel generation for at least 50 years. More surprisingly, based on our comprehensive analysis of 142 soil studies, soil C sequestered by setting aside former agricultural land was greater than the C credits generated by planting corn for ethanol on the same land for 40 years and had equal or greater economic net present value. Once commercially available, cellulosic ethanol produced in set-aside grasslands should provide the most efficient tool for GHG reduction of any scenario we examined. Our results suggest that conversion of CRP lands or other set-aside programs to corn ethanol production should not be encouraged through greenhouse gas policies.” Gervasio Piñeiro, Esteban G. Jobbágy, Justin Baker, Brian C. Murray, and Robert B. Jackson 2009. Set-asides can be better climate investment than corn ethanol. Ecological Applications 19:277–282. [Full text]

Biofuel Plantations on Forested Lands: Double Jeopardy for Biodiversity and Climate – Danielsen et al. (2009) “The growing demand for biofuels is promoting the expansion of a number of agricultural commodities, including oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Oil-palm plantations cover over 13 million ha, primarily in Southeast Asia, where they have directly or indirectly replaced tropical rainforest. We explored the impact of the spread of oil-palm plantations on greenhouse gas emission and biodiversity. We assessed changes in carbon stocks with changing land use and compared this with the amount of fossil-fuel carbon emission avoided through its replacement by biofuel carbon. We estimated it would take between 75 and 93 years for the carbon emissions saved through use of biofuel to compensate for the carbon lost through forest conversion, depending on how the forest was cleared. If the original habitat was peatland, carbon balance would take more than 600 years. Conversely, planting oil palms on degraded grassland would lead to a net removal of carbon within 10 years. These estimates have associated uncertainty, but their magnitude and relative proportions seem credible. We carried out a meta-analysis of published faunal studies that compared forest with oil palm. We found that plantations supported species-poor communities containing few forest species. Because no published data on flora were available, we present results from our sampling of plants in oil palm and forest plots in Indonesia. Although the species richness of pteridophytes was higher in plantations, they held few forest species. Trees, lianas, epiphytic orchids, and indigenous palms were wholly absent from oil-palm plantations. The majority of individual plants and animals in oil-palm plantations belonged to a small number of generalist species of low conservation concern. As countries strive to meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions under one international agreement (Kyoto Protocol), they may not only fail to meet their obligations under another (Convention on Biological Diversity) but may actually hasten global climate change. Reducing deforestation is likely to represent a more effective climate-change mitigation strategy than converting forest for biofuel production, and it may help nations meet their international commitments to reduce biodiversity loss.” Danielsen, F., Beukema, H., Burgess, N. D., Parish, F., Brühl, C. A., Donald, P. F., Murdiyarso, D., Phalan, B., Reijnders, L., Struebig, M. and Fitzherbert, E. B. (2009), Biofuel Plantations on Forested Lands: Double Jeopardy for Biodiversity and Climate. Conservation Biology, 23: 348–358. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01096.x. [Full text]

Carbon payback times for crop-based biofuel expansion in the tropics: the effects of changing yield and technology – Gibbs et al. (2008) “Biofuels from land-rich tropical countries may help displace foreign petroleum imports for many industrialized nations, providing a possible solution to the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. But concern is mounting that crop-based biofuels will increase net greenhouse gas emissions if feedstocks are produced by expanding agricultural lands. Here we quantify the ‘carbon payback time’ for a range of biofuel crop expansion pathways in the tropics. We use a new, geographically detailed database of crop locations and yields, along with updated vegetation and soil biomass estimates, to provide carbon payback estimates that are more regionally specific than those in previous studies. Using this cropland database, we also estimate carbon payback times under different scenarios of future crop yields, biofuel technologies, and petroleum sources. Under current conditions, the expansion of biofuels into productive tropical ecosystems will always lead to net carbon emissions for decades to centuries, while expanding into degraded or already cultivated land will provide almost immediate carbon savings. Future crop yield improvements and technology advances, coupled with unconventional petroleum supplies, will increase biofuel carbon offsets, but clearing carbon-rich land still requires several decades or more for carbon payback. No foreseeable changes in agricultural or energy technology will be able to achieve meaningful carbon benefits if crop-based biofuels are produced at the expense of tropical forests.” Holly K Gibbs et al 2008 Environ. Res. Lett. 3 034001 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034001. [Full text]

Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt – Fargione et al. (2008) “Increasing energy use, climate change, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels make switching to low-carbon fuels a high priority. Biofuels are a potential low-carbon energy source, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on how they are produced. Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food crop–based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a “biofuel carbon debt” by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions that these biofuels would provide by displacing fossil fuels. In contrast, biofuels made from waste biomass or from biomass grown on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands planted with perennials incur little or no carbon debt and can offer immediate and sustained GHG advantages.” Joseph Fargione, Jason Hill, David Tilman, Stephen Polasky, Peter Hawthorne, Science 29 February 2008: Vol. 319 no. 5867 pp. 1235-1238, DOI: 10.1126/science.1152747. [Full text]

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change – Searchinger et al. (2008) “Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.” Timothy Searchinger, Ralph Heimlich, R. A. Houghton, Fengxia Dong, Amani Elobeid, Jacinto Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Dermot Hayes, Tun-Hsiang Yu, Science 29 February 2008: Vol. 319 no. 5867 pp. 1238-1240, DOI: 10.1126/science.1151861. [Full text]

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation | 1 Comment »

Your paperlist suggestions

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 6, 2014

Years ago I had a thread where I asked for paperlist suggestions. It’s time to do another round. Go ahead and suggest climate-related subjects on which you would like to have a list of scientific papers. I don’t promise to do all or any of them, and I also don’t promise to do them quickly, but your suggestions do have a good chance to go high in my to-do list.

Posted in General | 4 Comments »

New research – February 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 4, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during February 2014. There are 155 papers, which makes it about 5.5 papers per day.


CMIP5 multi-model hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus

Record occurrence and record values in daily and monthly temperatures

Causes of past and future Arctic stratospheric temperature trends (open access)

A Lagrangian Investigation of Hot and Cold Temperature Extremes in Europe

Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For U.S. Climate Divisions

Surface and tropospheric temperature trends in Armenia

Temporal and spatial variation of 10-day mean air temperature in Northwestern China

Temperature trends under climate change in the source region of the Yellow River, China

Homogenization via pairwise comparisons with application to Argentinean temperature series

Competing roles of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols in Indian Ocean SST during the 20th century

Decadal variability of heat content in the South China Sea (open access)

European degree-day climatologies and trends for the period 1951–2011

Model simulation and projection of European heat waves in present-day and future climates

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

Attribution of temperature and precipitation changes to greenhouse gases in northwest Iran

Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in presence of natural climate variability

Statistical Significance of Climate Sensitivity Predictors Obtained by Data Mining

Impact of AMOC on ocean heat storage and transient climate change

Is AMOC more predictable than North Atlantic heat content?

Comparison of surface albedo feedback in climate models and observations (open access)

Uncertainty of concentration-terrestrial carbon feedback in Earth system models

On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the sun’s movement

The controversial early brightening in the first half of 20th century: measurements in Madrid

China’s dimming and brightening: evidence, causes and hydrological implications (open access)

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a data set covering years 1600–present (open access)

Global survey of instantaneous linkages between cloud vertical structure and large-scale climate

Decrease in cloud cover over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since 1600

Extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns (open access)

Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Trends in precipitation extremes and return levels in Hawaiian Islands under a changing climate

North Sea storminess from a novel storm surge record since AD 1843

Projected changes in hailstorms during the 21st century over the UK

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States (open access)

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding

Tropical cyclones in enhanced resolution CMIP5 experiments

A 66-year tropical cyclone record for south-east Africa: temporal trends in a global context

Climatic Change special issue: A new scenario framework for climate change research (open access)

Airborne high spatial and moderate spectral resolution imaging of methane (open access)

Special Workshop on Climatic Effects of Ozone Depletion in the Southern Hemisphere (open access)

Evolution of Total Atmospheric Ozone from 1900 to 2100 Estimated with Statistical Models

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: the role of stratospheric composition changes

Pollution trends over Europe constrain global aerosol forcing as simulated by climate models

Brown Carbon in the Continental Troposphere

Understanding and attributing the Euro-Russian summer blocking signatures

Extreme temperature events in Central Europe related to high pressure blocking situations (open access)

The varied impacts of El Niño – Southern Oscillation on Pacific island climates

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate

Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012 (open access)

The implication of radiative forcing and feedback for meridional energy transport

Effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of Ross Sea in 21st century

Tropical origin of the severe European winter of 1962/63

Equatorward shift of the South Asian high in response to anthropogenic forcing

Robust response of the East Asian monsoon rainband to solar variability

Performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region

Multi-decadal global cooling and ozone loss following regional nuclear conflict (open access)

Modeling the impacts of a man-made lake on the meteorological conditions of the surrounding areas

Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models


Greenland Ice Sheet melt from MODIS and associated atmospheric variability (open access)

77% increase of ice discharge since 1973 from Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Export and circulation of ice cavity water in Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica

Contribution of snow and glacier melt to discharge for highly glacierised catchments in Norway (open access)

Modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice thickness

Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss

Cyclone impact on sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean (open access)

The role of the mean state of Arctic sea ice on near-surface temperature trends

Sea-ice extent and its trend provide limited metrics of model performance (open access)

Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model (open access)

Summer Arctic sea ice albedo in CMIP5 models (open access)

Autumn Eurasian snow depth, autumn Arctic sea ice cover and East Asian winter monsoon

Spatial variations in snow cover and seasonally frozen ground over N China and Mongolia, 1988-2010

Snowfall time-series reconstruction in Italy over the last 300 years

New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?

Response of ice cover on shallow lakes of N Slope of Alaska to climate conditions (open access)

Local spring warming drives earlier river-ice breakup in a large Arctic delta (Mackenzie River)

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity (open access)

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Heterogeneity of impacts of high CO2 on the North Western European Shelf (open access)

Tree mortality in response to climate change induced drought across Beijing, China

The imprint of climate within Northern Hemisphere trees

Effects of forest age on albedo in boreal forests

Phenology as a strategy for carbon optimality: a global model (open access)

Spring leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in a temperate maple forest

A 170-year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Increasing altitudinal gradient of spring vegetation phenology on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Landward migration potential of Mangroves in response to sea level rise (open access)

Climate change has confounding impact on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the SW USA

Estimation of environmental suitability for malaria vector development in Portugal

A continental (N America) risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Larvae of the coral eating crown-of-thorns starfish in warmer-high CO2 ocean

Global warming will reshuffle areas of high prevalence of three avian blood parasite genera

Food resources and vegetation structure mediate climatic effects on species richness of birds

Albedo-induced radiative forcing from mountain pine beetle outbreaks in forests (open access)

Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species (open access)

Net terrestrial CO2 exchange over China during 2001-2010

Predicting ecosystem carbon balance in a warming Arctic

A Growing Oceanic Carbon Uptake: Results from an inversion study of surface pCO2 data

Influence of the oceanic cool skin layer on global air–sea CO2 flux estimates

Air–sea CO2 flux in the Pacific Ocean for the period 1990–2009 (open access)

Evidence for a differential sea level rise between hemispheres over the 20th century

On the ability of global sea level reconstructions to determine trends and variability

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function sea-level reconstruction (open access)

Exploring local (California Current) adaptation and the ocean acidification seascape (open access)

Response of ocean acidification to gradual increase and decrease of atmospheric CO2 (open access)

Climate change drives coherent trends in physics and oxygen content in North American lakes

Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale (open access)

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate in southeast Tasmania

Fire weather and large fire potential in the northern Sierra Nevada

Radiative effect of August 2010 Russian wildfires (open access)

Long-term groundwater variations in Northwest India from satellite gravity measurements

Climate change generally increases water stress in USA (open access)

High-mortality days during winter season: comparing meteorological conditions across 5 US cities

Climate-driven variability of water scarcity in food production potential (open access)

The impacts of long-term and year-to-year temperature change on corn yield in China

Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences

Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda

Impact of climate change on human-wildlife-ecosystem interactions in Trans-Himalaya region of Nepal


Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research

Quantifying the climate impacts of albedo changes due to biofuel production (open access)

Germany’s regional and local climate response to arable land bioenergy production

Perceptions of time in relation to climate change

Analysis of Ultimate Fossil Fuel Reserves and Associated CO2 Emissions in IPCC Scenarios

The future role of agriculture and land use change for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

Geothermal Energy for Northern Canada: Is it Economical?

Carbon Footprint Taxes

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

The feasibility of a European-wide integrated CO2 transport network

Nitrous oxide emissions 1999 to 2009 from a global atmospheric inversion (open access)

Modern economies are not following a sustainable energy consumption path

The potential of microblogs for the study of public perceptions of climate change

Japan’s energy conundrum: Post-Fukushima scenarios from a life cycle perspective

Cold and warm spells and their impact on energy consumption in urban areas

Blame avoidance and problem denial in climate change policy-making

Stratospheric ozone response to sulfate geoengineering

Examining politics and practice in urban climate change experiments

Well-to-wheel analysis on greenhouse gas emission and energy use with natural gas in Korea

Changing consumption choices has high greenhouse gas reduction potential

The politics of climate change in the UK

Autonomous adaptation to climate change has already begun in agricultural region of N Europe

Communicating adaptation to climate change

From climate research to climate compatible development in the Netherlands

Global look at climate adaptation actions financed through the Global Environment Facility


Can sea ice albedo uncertainty reconcile data-model discord for Pliocene and 20th/21st centuries?

Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010

Interdependence of the growth of the NH ice sheets during the last glaciation (open access)

Little Ice Age on the Tibetan Plateau and its bordering mountains

Climate as a driver of ecological community change across the Anthropocene boundary

Hysteresis of Glaciations in the Permo-Carboniferous

High-resolution 1500-year chironomid stratigraphy from a southwestern Greenland lake

Middle- to late-Holocene storminess in Brittany (NW France)

Characterizing atmospheric circulation signals in Greenland ice cores

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5 (open access)

The impact of climate-vegetation interactions on the onset of the Antarctic ice sheet


A glossary for biometeorology (open access)

Posted in Climate science | 1 Comment »

Papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 18, 2014

This is a list of papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation. List also contains some papers that discuss next glaciation more generally. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle – Herrero et al. (2013) “The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO2 pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO2 values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.” Carmen Herrero, Antonio García-Olivares, Josep L. Pelegrí, Climatic Change, December 2013, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1012-0.

Determining the natural length of the current interglacial – Tzedakis et al. (2012) “No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv (ref. 1). Indeed, model experiments suggest that in the current orbital configuration—which is characterized by a weak minimum in summer insolation—glacial inception would require CO2 concentrations below preindustrial levels of 280 ppmv (refs 2, 3, 4). However, the precise CO2 threshold4, 5, 6 as well as the timing of the hypothetical next glaciation7 remain unclear. Past interglacials can be used to draw analogies with the present, provided their duration is known. Here we propose that the minimum age of a glacial inception is constrained by the onset of bipolar-seesaw climate variability, which requires ice-sheets large enough to produce iceberg discharges that disrupt the ocean circulation. We identify the bipolar seesaw in ice-core and North Atlantic marine records by the appearance of a distinct phasing of interhemispheric climate and hydrographic changes and ice-rafted debris. The glacial inception during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 19c, a close analogue for the present interglacial, occurred near the summer insolation minimum, suggesting that the interglacial was not prolonged by subdued radiative forcing7. Assuming that ice growth mainly responds to insolation and CO2 forcing, this analogy suggests that the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5 ppmv.” P. C. Tzedakis, J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven & L. C. Skinner, Nature Geoscience 5, 138–141(2012), doi:10.1038/ngeo1358. [Full text]

How can a glacial inception be predicted? – Crucifix (2011) “The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that present levels of northern summer incoming solar radiation are close to those that, in the past, preceded a glacial inception phenomenon, associated with declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. However, experiments with various numerical models of glacial cycles show that next glacial inception may still be delayed by several tens of thousands of years, even with the assumption of a decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the Holocene. Furthermore, as we show here, conceptual models designed to capture the gross dynamics of the climate system as a whole suggest also that small disturbances may sometimes cause substantial delays in glacial events, causing a fair level of unpredictability on ice age dynamics. This suggests the need for a validated mathematical description of climate system dynamics that allows us to quantify uncertainties on predictions. Here, it is proposed to organise our knowledge about the physics and dynamics of glacial cycles through a Bayesian inference network. Constraints on the physics and dynamics of climate can be encapsulated into a stochastic dynamical system. These constraints include, in particular, estimates of the sensitivity of the components of climate to external forcings, inferred from plans of experiments with large simulators of the atmosphere, oceans and ice sheets. On the other hand, palaeoclimate observations are accounted for through a process of parameter calibration. We discuss promises and challenges raised by this programme.” Michel Crucifix, The Holocene August 2011 vol. 21 no. 5 831-842, doi: 10.1177/0959683610394883. [Full text]

The impact of insolation, greenhouse gas forcing and ocean circulation changes on glacial inception – Vettoretti & Peltier (2011) “In this study we employ the NCAR CCSM3 coupled model to investigate the onset of high northern latitude perennial snow cover. Two periods of Earth’s insolation history, that of the pre-industrial period and that of 116 ka before present (BP), are used as benchmarks in an investigation of the influences of interglacial greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and insolation upon the occurrence of permanent summer snow cover. An additional two experiments at 10 ka and 51 ka into the future (AP) using a typical interglacial GHG level are used to investigate the length of the current interglacial. Results from this set of multicentury sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relative importance of forcings due to insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gases at the millennial scale, and of Atlantic ocean overturning strength (AMOC) at the century scale. We find that while areas of perennial snow cover are sensitive to GHG concentrations, they are much more sensitive to the contemporaneous insolation regime. The goodness of fit of the climatology of the control model to the modern observed climatology is found to influence the modeling results. While there is a strong correlation between AMOC decadal variability and high latitude surface temperature in our control climates, we find little change in AMOC strength during our simulations of 116 ka BP climate nor do we find significant correlation between high latitude snow accumulation and the AMOC. Both the 10 ka AP and 51 ka AP future simulations produce inception events which are much stronger than that of the equivalent pre-industrial simulation. The simulation of inception at 10 ka into the future suggests a maximum duration of the current interglacial of approximately 20 ka in the absence of modern anthropogenic forcing.” G. Vettoretti, W.R. Peltier, The Holocene August 2011 vol. 21 no. 5 803-817, doi: 10.1177/0959683610394885.

A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation – Archer & Ganopolski (2005) “The initiation of northern hemisphere ice sheets in the last 800 kyr appears to be closely controlled by minima in summer insolation forcing at 65°N. Beginning from an initial typical interglacial pCO2 of 280 ppm, the CLIMBER-2 model initiates an ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere when insolation drops 0.7 σ (standard deviation) or 15 W/m2 below the mean. This same value is required to explain the history of climate using an orbitally driven conceptual model based on insolation and ice volume thresholds (Paillard, 1998). When the initial baseline pCO2 is raised in CLIMBER-2, a deeper minimum in summertime insolation is required to nucleate an ice sheet. Carbon cycle models indicate that ∼25% of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, and ∼7% will remain beyond one hundred thousand years (Archer, 2005). We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500,000 years, until after not one but two 400 kyr cycle eccentricity minima. The duration and intensity of the projected interglacial period are longer than have been seen in the last 2.6 million years.” David Archer, Andrey Ganopolski, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, Volume 6, Issue 5, May 2005, DOI: 10.1029/2004GC000891. [Full text]

The Earth’s Climate in the Next Hundred Thousand years (100 kyr) – Berger et al. (2003) “One of the most striking features of the Quaternary paleoclimate records remains the so-called 100-kyr cycle which is undoubtedly linked to the future of our climate. Such a 100-kyr cycle is indeed characterised by long glacial periods followed by a short-interglacial (∼10–15 kyr long). As we are now in an interglacial, the Holocene, the previous one (the Eemian, which corresponds quite well to Marine Isotope Stage 5e, peaking at ∼125 kyr before present, BP) was assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. In addition, as the Holocene is 10 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were naturally inclined to predict that we are quite close to the next ice age. Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones. It is suggested here that this is related to the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. As this is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle of eccentricity, the best and closest analogue for such a forcing is definitely Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11), some 400 kyr ago, not MIS-5e. Because the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere also plays an important role in shaping long-term climatic variations – especially its phase with respect to insolation – a detailed reconstruction of this previous interglacial from deep sea and ice records is urgently needed. Such a study is particularly important in the context of the already exceptional present-day CO2 concentrations (unprecedented over the past million years) and, even more so, because of even larger values predicted to occur during the 21st century due to human activities.” A. Berger, M. F. Loutre, M. Crucifix, Surveys in Geophysics, March 2003, Volume 24, Issue 2, pp 117-138. [Full text]

An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? – Berger & Loutre (2002) “Today’s comparatively warm climate has been the exception more than the rule during the last 500,000 years or more. If recent warm periods (or interglacials) are a guide, then we may soon slip into another glacial period. But Berger and Loutre argue in their Perspective that with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun.” A. Berger, M. F. Loutre, Science 23 August 2002: Vol. 297 no. 5585 pp. 1287-1288, DOI: 10.1126/science.1076120. [Full text]

Future Climatic Changes: Are We Entering an Exceptionally Long Interglacial? – Loutre & Berger (2000) “Various experiments have been conducted using the Louvain-la-Neuve two-dimensional Northern Hemisphere climate model (LLN 2-D NH) to simulate climate for the next 130 kyr into the future. Simulations start with values representing the present-day Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, using different scenarios for future CO2 concentrations. The sensitivity of the model to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, and to possible impacts of human activities, has also been tested. Most of the natural scenarios indicate that: (i) the climate is likely to experience a longlasting (∼50 kyr) interglacial; (ii) the next glacial maximum is expected to be most intense at around 100 kyr after present (AP), with a likely interstadial at ∼60 kyr AP; and (iii) after 100 kyr AP continental ice rapidly melts, leading to an ice volume minimum 20 kyr later. However, the amplitude and, to a lesser extent, the timing of future climatic changes depend on the CO2 scenario and on the initial conditions related to the assumed present-day ice volume. According to our modelling experiments, man’s activities over the next centuries may significantly affect the ice-sheet’s behaviour for approximately the next 50 kyr. Finally, the existence of thresholds in CO2 and insolation, earlier shown to be significant for the past, is confirmed to be also important for the future.” M. F. Loutre, A. Berger, Climatic Change, July 2000, Volume 46, Issue 1-2, pp 61-90, DOI 10.1023/A:1005559827189. [Full text]

The end of the present interglacial: how and when? – Broecker (1998) “Despite the large decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation during the last 8000 years, neither sea level nor polar temperatures have as yet undergone any significant downturn. This behavior is consistent with the prediction by Kukla and Matthews (1972) that the Holocene interglacial will terminate suddenly with a jump to another of the climate system’s modes of operation. This is what happened at the end of the last period of peak interglaciation. However, complicating the situation is evidence that ice sheet growth during the transition from marine stage 5e to 5d preceded the shut down of the Atlantic’s conveyor circulation which is thought to have brought Europe’s Eemian to a close. If so, then in the natural course of events, the end of the present interglaciation awaits the onset of icecap growth. However, it must be kept in mind that the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases may alter the natural course of events. In particular, the warming and wetting of the planet will gradually reduce the density of surface waters in the regions where deep waters form. As this reduction is not likely to be symmetrical between the northern Atlantic and the margin of the Antarctic continent, the current near balance between deep water production in the north and south may be disrupted causing an abrupt reorganization of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation. Based on the paleoclimatic record, such a reorganization would have had a profound impact on the planet’s climate.” Broecker, W.S., Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 17, Number 8, 1 August 1998 , pp. 689-694(6), DOI: [Full text]

Summer solstice solar radiation, the 100 kyr Ice Age cycle, and the next Ice Age – Ledley (1995) “Modeling studies suggest that the summer solstice solar radiation is more important than the caloric half-year solar radiation in producing glacial/interglacial cycles because it is more representative of the energy available to melt ice during the short melt season. Here it is shown that the correlation between the summer solstice solar radiation and the rate of change of the oxygen isotope record is generally greater than that between the caloric half-year radiation and the rate of change of the oxygen isotope record. These results also suggest that the sawtoothed nature of the 100 kyr cycle may be produced by periods of relatively slow changes in ice volume, punctuated by periods of rapid growth that are initiated at times of extremely low summer solstice radiation; and that it is unlikely that an ice age will begin in the next 70 kyr.” Tamara Shapiro Ledley, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 22, Issue 20, pages 2745–2748, 15 October 1995, DOI: 10.1029/95GL03027.

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO2 on the dynamics of climate: Implications for ice age cycles – Saltzman et al. (1993) “A dynamical model, developed to account for the observed major variations of global ice mass and atmospheric CO2 during the late Cenozoic, is used to provide a quantitative demonstration of the possibility that the anthropogenically-forced increase of atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a long period of time (perhaps by tectonic forcing), could displace the climatic system from an unstable regime of oscillating ice ages into a more stable regime representative of the pre-Pleistocene. This stable regime is characterized by orbitally-forced oscillations that are of much weaker amplitude than prevailed during the Pleistocene.” Barry Saltzman, Kirk A. Maasch, Mikhail Ya. Verbitsky, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 20, Issue 11, pages 1051–1054, 7 June 1993, DOI: 10.1029/93GL01015.

Quaternary Research special issue: The end of the present interglacial – several authors, 24 papers (1972) Only abstracts are available for individual papers. Quaternary Research, Volume 2, Issue 3, Pages 261-445 (November 1972).

Posted in Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – January 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 3, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during January 2014. There are 174 papers, which makes it about 5.6 papers per day.


Man-made warming in Indian Ocean during 1958–2004 (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of atmospheric teleconnections and solar variability on atmospheric temperatures in NH ABSTRACT

Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models (open access) ABSTRACT

Effect of data homogenization on estimate of temperature trend, Huairou, Beijing (open access) ABSTRACT

Spatiotemporal characterization of land surface temperature in Mount Kilimanjaro ABSTRACT

Parallel decadal variability of water temperatures for N and S Hemisphere Intermediate Water Masses ABSTRACT

Equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient observations ABSTRACT

Earth’s Energy Imbalance ABSTRACT

Quantifying contributions of climate feedbacks to tropospheric warming in the NCAR CCSM3.0 ABSTRACT

Characterizing the Climate Feedback Pattern in the NCAR CCSM3-SOM Using Hourly Data ABSTRACT

Asymmetry & uncertainties in climate–vegetation feedback over range of CO2 forcings (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of vegetation changes on temperature changes across the Eastern China (open access) ABSTRACT

Interactive ozone induces a negative feedback in CO2 driven climate change simulations ABSTRACT

Stratocumulus cloud feedback in southeastern pacific – models vs. observations ABSTRACT

The responses of cloudiness to the direct radiative effect of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols ABSTRACT

Global distribution of cloud water ABSTRACT

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder version 6 cloud products (open access) ABSTRACT

Effect of cloudiness on long-term variability in air temperature in Krakow (open access) ABSTRACT

Detecting super-thin clouds with polarized sunlight ABSTRACT

Oceanic heat delivery via Kangerlugssuaq Fjord to the south-east Greenland ice sheet ABSTRACT

Urbanization effect on trends of extreme temperature indices over mainland China ABSTRACT

Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes ABSTRACT

Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China ABSTRACT

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961–2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Variations of surface temperature and rainfall in Vietnam from 1971 to 2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland ABSTRACT

The rainfall regime in Lisbon in the last 150 years ABSTRACT

Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation indices over India using PRECIS ABSTRACT

Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010 ABSTRACT

A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979–2011 (open access) ABSTRACT

Cause of severe droughts in Southwest China during 1951–2010 ABSTRACT

Did climate change induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought? ABSTRACT

Why did the 2011-12 La Niña cause a severe drought in the Brazilian Northeast? ABSTRACT

Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes ABSTRACT

Frost-free season lengthening and its potential cause in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2010 ABSTRACT

Temporal change of climate zones in China in the context of climate warming ABSTRACT

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate ABSTRACT

Future change of global monsoon (open access) ABSTRACT

Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST data set, version 2, part 1: Sea ice concentrations ABSTRACT

Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic ABSTRACT

Awareness of both type I and II errors in climate science and assessment ABSTRACT

Terrestrial satellite records for climate studies: how long is long enough? ABSTRACT

Various aerosol types and minor gases in Arctic and Antarctic atmospheres ABSTRACT

On the consistency between global and regional methane emissions (open access) ABSTRACT

Two hundred fifty years of aerosols and climate: the end of the age of aerosols (open access) ABSTRACT

How active International Society of Biometeorology is in climate change research (open access) ABSTRACT

Antarctic ozone variability inside polar vortex estimated from balloon measurements (open access) ABSTRACT

Stratospheric ozone trends and variability as seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012 (open access) ABSTRACT

Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery ABSTRACT

Response of the ozone column over Europe to the 2011 Arctic ozone depletion event ABSTRACT

The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions ABSTRACT

Soil temperatures beneath snow-free skin-surface using thermal observations from satellites ABSTRACT

Mending Milankovitch’s theory: obliquity amplification by surface feedbacks (open access) ABSTRACT

ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable? ABSTRACT

Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking ABSTRACT


The relationship between climate forcing and impact (open access) ABSTRACT

An Improved Mass Budget for the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Impact of climate sensitivity and polar amplification on projections of Greenland Ice Sheet loss ABSTRACT

Persistent flow acceleration within the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Explaining the presence of perennial liquid water bodies in the firn of the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Complex network of channels beneath an Antarctic ice shelf ABSTRACT

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Glacier area loss in Northern Eurasia (open access) ABSTRACT

Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003–2009 (open access) ABSTRACT

The climate memory of an Arctic polythermal glacier ABSTRACT

Recent changes in freezing level heights in High Asia and their impact on glacier changes ABSTRACT

Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods (open access) ABSTRACT

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs ABSTRACT

Multiyear sea ice thermal regimes and oceanic heat flux in the Arctic Ocean ABSTRACT

Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (open access) ABSTRACT

A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011) for the European Alps (open access) ABSTRACT

Central European tree phenology (1946-2010) confirm the recent extension of growing seasons ABSTRACT

Olive tree phenology and climate variations in the Mediterranean area over the last two decades ABSTRACT

Forest ecosystem changes from annual methane source to sink depending on late summer water balance ABSTRACT

Increased topsoil carbon stock across China’s forests ABSTRACT

Forest biomass carbon sinks in East Asia ABSTRACT

Change in tropical forest cover of Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Terrestrial carbon sink observed from space (open access) ABSTRACT

Predicting changes in temperate forest budburst using continental-scale observations and models ABSTRACT

Impact of climate change and human activities on alpine grassland over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ABSTRACT

Big eucalypts grow more slowly in a warm climate ABSTRACT

Do climatic conditions affect host and parasite phenotypes differentially? ABSTRACT

Ecological responses of plant species and communities to climate warming ABSTRACT

Increased spring freezing vulnerability for alpine shrubs under early snowmelt ABSTRACT

Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China ABSTRACT

Remotely sensed trends in the phenology of northern high latitude terrestrial vegetation ABSTRACT

Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests ABSTRACT

Trends in Finnish forest moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change ABSTRACT

Faster growth in warmer winters for large trees in a Mediterranean-climate ecosystem ABSTRACT

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change from five pine insect pests ABSTRACT

Phenological change in British butterflies since the late-19th century ABSTRACT

Forest cover reduces thermally suitable habitats for a high-elevation lizard ABSTRACT

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa ABSTRACT

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx ABSTRACT

Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change ABSTRACT

Warming drives a seasonal shift in timing of host-parasite dynamics and affecting disease risk ABSTRACT

Predicting plant invasions under climate change ABSTRACT

Changing Climate and the Altitudinal Range of Avian Malaria in the Hawaiian Islands ABSTRACT

Effects of landscape fragmentation and climate on Lyme disease incidence in NE United States ABSTRACT

Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change ABSTRACT

Montane forest root growth and soil organic layer depth may have stabilized Cenozoic global change ABSTRACT

Larger biodiversity in tropical forests increases their carbon sink ABSTRACT

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Potential climatic refugia in semi-arid, temperate mountains (Sierra Nevada, California, USA) ABSTRACT

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching ABSTRACT

Do successive climate extremes weaken the resistance of plant communities? (open access) ABSTRACT

Photosynthetic activity buffers ocean acidification in seagrass meadows (open access) ABSTRACT

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters (open access) ABSTRACT

Regional variability of acidification in the Arctic: a sea of contrasts (open access) ABSTRACT

Biogeochemical context impacts seawater pH changes from atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition ABSTRACT

Natural variability and anthropogenic change in equatorial Pacific surface ocean pCO2 and pH ABSTRACT

Observed small spatial scale and seasonal variability of CO2 in Southern Ocean (open access) ABSTRACT

The iron budget in ocean surface waters in the 20th and 21st centuries (open access) ABSTRACT

A curious local surface salinity maximum in the northwestern tropical Atlantic ABSTRACT

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast from the late 20th century ABSTRACT

Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ABSTRACT

Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: predicting the AMOC regime shifts ABSTRACT

Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multi-model CMIP5 simulations ABSTRACT

Arctic Ocean basin liquid freshwater storage trend 1992 – 2012 ABSTRACT

Is flooding in Toronto a concern? ABSTRACT

Comparison of different evaporation estimates over the African continent (open access) ABSTRACT

Energy input is primary controller of methane bubbling in subarctic lakes ABSTRACT

Climate change risks to US infrastructure (open access) ABSTRACT

Historical evidence for climate driven migrations in Portuguese fishing community ABSTRACT

Climate change as a challenge to modern ways of thinking and being ABSTRACT

On climate variability and civil war in Asia (open access) ABSTRACT

Implications of changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia ABSTRACT

Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa ABSTRACT

Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Living on climate-changed country: health and well-being in Remote Australian Communities ABSTRACT


Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic Sea-Ice? (open access) ABSTRACT

Will geoengineering be able to stop Arctic sea ice and snow from melting? ABSTRACT

Religion and climate change: varieties in viewpoints and practices ABSTRACT

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments ABSTRACT

Full greenhouse gas budget of Africa: synthesis, uncertainties, and vulnerabilities (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency (OA) ABSTRACT

Considering local adaptation increases willingness to mitigate ABSTRACT

Historical responsibility for climate change: science and the science–policy interface ABSTRACT

Contribution of lawn mowing to atmospheric aerosol levels in American suburbs (open access) ABSTRACT

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform climate change risk analysis ABSTRACT

Most people in UK see cold events as pointing towards the reality of climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Local surface temperature change due to expansion of oil palm plantation in Indonesia ABSTRACT

Well permeability estimation and CO2 leakage rates ABSTRACT

Reduced emissions from U.S. power plants due to switch from coal to natural gas (open access) ABSTRACT

Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering (open access) ABSTRACT

Overview of the potential of microalgae for CO2 sequestration ABSTRACT

Efficiency of carbon sequestration by added reactive nitrogen in ocean fertilisation ABSTRACT

Shifting discourses of climate change in India ABSTRACT

Well permeability estimation and CO2 leakage rates ABSTRACT

Public engagement with climate change: the role of human values (open access) ABSTRACT

Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions ABSTRACT

The dynamics of oil consumption and economic growth in Malaysia ABSTRACT

Lightning discharges produced by wind turbines ABSTRACT

The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration Policies for Climate Change Mitigation ABSTRACT

Variations in wind-energy regime of Taklimakan Desert, central Asia, over last 700 years ABSTRACT

National contributions to observed global warming (open access) ABSTRACT

Can we modify stratospheric water vapor by deliberate cloud seeding ABSTRACT

The regional climate impact of a realistic future deforestation scenario in the Congo Basin ABSTRACT


Climatic potential of Islamic chronicles in Iberia: Extreme droughts (AD 711–1010) ABSTRACT

New tools for the reconstruction of Pleistocene Antarctic sea ice ABSTRACT

Swiss tree-rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times ABSTRACT

A 0.6-Million Year Record of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the Tropics ABSTRACT

Past 1200 years surface air temperature reconstruction with tree rings for Gulf of Alaska ABSTRACT

70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550–1980 in N Scandinavia ABSTRACT

Ephemeral formation of perennial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean during the middle Eocene ABSTRACT

Evidence of the solar Gleissberg cycle in the nitrate concentration in polar ice ABSTRACT

Atlantic overturning responses to obliquity and precession over the last 3 Myr ABSTRACT

Late Pliocene lakes and soils: global data set for analysis of climate feedbacks in warmer world (OA) ABSTRACT

CO2 forcing and Intertropical Convergence Zone influence on W Pacific warm pool climate, past 400 ka ABSTRACT

Sedimentological and taphonomic evidence for drought-induced die-offs at Permo-Triassic boundary ABSTRACT

Delayed hydrological response to Greenland cooling at the onset of Younger Dryas in western Europe ABSTRACT

Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations (open access) ABSTRACT

Muted change in Atlantic overturning circulation over some glacial-aged Heinrich events ABSTRACT

Posted in Climate science | 1 Comment »

New research from late 2013

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 10, 2014

In March I published a batch of early 2013 papers on climate related issues. In September I gave newly published papers in 5 separate posts:

Part 1. Reality of climate change (temperature, other climate parameters, climate extremes, future projections).
Part 2. Impacts of climate change (cryosphere, oceans, mankind, ecosystems, other issues).
Part 3. Mitigation and adaptation (greenhouse gases, mankind reaction, energy, technologies and products, adaptation, general mitigation).
Part 4. Past climate changes.
Part 5. Other papers (feedbacks and forcings, general climate science, other issues).

In this post I give you a selection of new papers (489 of them) from late 2013. Total number of papers in the research stream for the year 2013 is 1434. Here are the late 2013 papers:

Changes in significant and maximum wave heights in the Norwegian Sea

The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves

Continued warming likely has negative impact on crop production in Koshi River basin of Nepal (OA)

Predicting the future from the vulnerability of corals and reef fishes to multiple stressors

A Top-Down Regional Assessment of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Europe

Evolution of meteorological drought characteristics in Vietnam during the 1961–2007 period

Agroclimatic conditions in china under projected climate change

A dissection of the surface temperature biases in the Community Earth System Model

Estimating winter trends in climatic variables in the Chic-Chocs Mountains, Canada

Spatial and temporal variations of regional high temperature events in China

Topo-climatic microrefugia explain persistence of rare endemic plant in Alps during last 21000yr

Permafrost carbon vulnerability in upper reach of Heihe River basin, northwestern China

Future climate warming increases Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance variability

Detection and correction of inhomogeneities in Greek climate temperature series

Simulated radiative forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus (open access)

Future Arctic climate changes: adaptation and mitigation timescales

Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity? A Southern Hemisphere perspective

Climate change and elevational range shifts: evidence from dung beetles in two European mountain ranges

Are North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Anomalies Westward Propagating?

Polar bear conservation jeopardised by manipulation of scientific and trade data

Warming temperatures and smaller body sizes: synchronous changes in growth of North Sea fishes

Increase of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-twenty-first century

Toward a consistent reanalysis of the climate system (open access)

Influence of the western North Atlantic and the Barents Sea on European winter climate

Rebuilding coral reefs: does active reef restoration lead to sustainable reefs?

Estimating low-frequency variability and trends in atmospheric temperature using ERA-Interim

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

Change in the odds of warm years and seasons due to anthropogenic influence on the climate

External forcing of the early 20th century Arctic warming (open access)

Contribution of future agricultural trends in US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of CO2 emission on temperature rise

Possibly ice free summers in Arctic Ocean during the Early Holocene Insolation Maximum

Human caused shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s (open access)

Response of atmospheric CO2 to the abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago

Future ocean acidification in the Canada Basin and surrounding Arctic Ocean

Sea Ice-Atmosphere Feedback over the Barents Sea

Nitrogen and phosphorous limitations significantly reduce future allowable CO2 emissions

Sea level in ocean reanalyses and tide gauges

Radiative forcing at high concentrations of well mixed greenhouse gases

Decreasing growth rates possible for Asian tropical trees as a result of global warming

Can variable pH and low oxygen moderate ocean acidification outcomes for mussel larvae?

A spatial climatology of North Atlantic hurricane intensity change

Global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding (open access)

Climate change response in Europe: what’s the reality?

The relationship between air temperature fluctuation and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Tibet

Less Reliable Water Availability in the 21st Century Climate Projections (open access)

Rapid response of atmospheric black carbon to anthropogenic sources: observational evidence

Warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake

Tracing anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers (open access)

A Signal of Persistent Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice

Diverse Coral Communities in Naturally Acidified Waters of a Western Pacific Reef

Sea level rise and its coastal impacts (open access)

Infrastructure and climate change in permafrost landscapes in Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska

New satellite temperature analysis shows stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in lower

Climate change impacts on sea–air fluxes of CO2 in three Arctic seas (open access)

Hurricane winds over the North Atlantic: spatial analysis and sensitivity to ocean temperature

Evaluation of drought and wetness episodes in a cold region (Northeast China) since 1898

Policy support, social capital, and farmers’ adaptation to drought in China

Material and social factors limit children’s ability to save energy

Arctic Ocean sea ice snow depth evaluation and bias sensitivity in CCSM (open access)

Climatic factors controlling plant sensitivity to warming

Severe cloud contamination of MODIS Land Surface Temperatures over an Arctic ice cap, Svalbard

Radiative forcing of quadrupling CO2

Earth’s climate may remain safe for at least another 1.5 billion years

Direct measurements show no evidence of Gulf Stream slow-down

Woody biomass energy potential in 2050

Too early nuclear phase-out primarily benefits fossil energy instead of renewable energy

Decadal prediction skill in the GEOS-5 forecast system

Scandinavian floods: from past observations to future trends

Climate and air quality trade-offs in altering ship fuel sulfur content (open access)

Global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

Isotropic Thaw Subsidence in Undisturbed Permafrost Landscapes

Quantifying the global carbon cycle response to volcanic stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing

Stratospheric climate engineering stabilizing global temperatures and possible side effects

Global sea level rise is accelerating

10-year record of supraglacial lake evolution and rapid drainage in West Greenland (open access)

US biofuels subsidies likely increased carbon emissions from 1981 to 2011

“Nuclear energy sounded wonderful 40 years ago”: UK citizen views on CCS

Detection of urbanization signals in extreme winter min temperature changes over Northern China

Change in geographical distribution of global climate types in the context of climate warming

Atlantic-Pacific seesaw and its role in outgassing CO2 during Heinrich events

Natural and anthropogenic factors cause increased ocean acidification in California Undercurrent

Effects of upwelling increase on ocean acidification in the California and Canary Current Systems

New Estimate of the China Temperature Anomaly Series and Uncertainty Assessment in 1900-2006

Trends in Summer Extreme Temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula using Non-Urban Station Data

Gradualist best practice in wind power policy

Global budget and radiative forcing of black carbon aerosol

Scenarios of technology adoption towards low-carbon cities

Climate, not forestry, controls long-term organic carbon fluxes in a large boreal watershed

Surface warming patterns drive tropical rainfall pattern responses to CO2 forcing on all timescales

Climate change and health in Earth’s future (open access)

The difficult, the dangerous & the catastrophic: Managing the spectrum of climate risks (open access)

Multi-decadal regional sea level shifts in the Pacific over 1958-2008

Variability of winter wheat phenology in response to weather and climate variability in China

Carbon balance impacts of land use changes related to Malaysian palm oil-derived biodiesel

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle

Two papers of today’s new research batch were from AGU’s new journal Earth’s Future

Significant rate of increase in sea-level rise since 19th century in U.S. mid-Atlantic coast (OA)

An international comparative analysis of public acceptance of nuclear energy

Climatology and trends of wind speed in the Beaufort/Chukchi Sea coastal region from 1979 to 2009

AMSU-A only atmospheric temperature records from the lower troposphere to the top of stratosphere

Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways (open access)

Influence of model biases on projected future changes in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence

The cost of nuclear electricity: France after Fukushima

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models (open access)

Consistent Trends in a Modified Climate Extremes Index in the U.S.A., Europe and Australia

CO2 equivalences for short-lived climate forcers

Trends in Great Plains low-level jet and precipitation changes in relation to recent droughts

Climate variability interacts with climate change in making plant migration more difficult

The Palaeoanthropocene – the beginnings of anthropogenic environmental change

Hypogean carabid beetles as indicators of global warming? (open access)

Demarketing fear: Bring the nuclear issue back to rational discourse

The Antarctic sea ice response to the ozone hole in climate models

Land use makes bio-based ethanol bad choice compared to fossil-based ethanol

Hurricane Katrina of 1900: less damage than in 2005 – future Katrina: more damage

Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions

Changes in extreme wet events in Southwestern China in 1960–2011

The global distribution of mineral dust and its impacts on the climate system: A review

Residents’ attitudes to proposed wind farms in the West Coast region of South Africa

Using phenology to assess urban heat islands in tropical and temperate regions

Serbian climate generally tended to become warmer in the last 61 years

Framing geoengineering as a response to dangerous climate change

Variability of freshwater content, heat content and seasonal ice melt in Arctic Ocean (open access)

Does environmental regulation affect energy efficiency in China’s thermal power generation?

Opportunities and challenges of linking climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction

Snow variability in the Swiss Alps 1864–2009

Ocean acidification from 1997 to 2011 in the subarctic western North Pacific Ocean (open access)

Stable atmospheric methane in 2000s: key-role of emissions from natural wetlands (open access)

Greenland surface albedo changes in July 1981–2012 from satellite observations (open access)

Mongolian pines in Hulun Buir steppe, China, respond to climate in adjustment to local water supply

Using event stratigraphy to map the Anthropocene

Changes in the spatial structure of strong and moderate El Niño events under global warming

Climate factors driving wine production in the Portuguese Minho region

Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China

Elemental carbon measurements in European Arctic snow packs

Bioprecipitation: a feedback cycle linking Earth history, ecosystem dynamics and land use

Projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Venomous snakes and climate change: ophidism as a dynamic problem

Influence of cloud-radiative forcing on tropical cyclone structure

Adaptation of crop production to climate change by crop substitution

Polar synchronization and the synchronized climatic history of Greenland and Antarctica

A fertile peatland forest does not constitute a major greenhouse gas sink (open access)

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown cooled the subtropical ocean (open access)

Duration of the South America summer monsoon is increasing

Adapting to climate change in South East Queensland, Australia (open access)

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis: a critical review

Cars as rain gauges with windshield wipers or optical sensors as measurement devices (open access)

Response of the ocean natural carbon storage to projected 21st century climate change

Projected Tasman Sea extremes in sea surface temperature through the 21st Century

Global stratospheric ozone climatology (open access)

Recent variability of the tropical tropopause inversion layer

World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951–2010

Thermal optima of equatorial reef fishes are close to current temperatures

Energy balance in a warm world without the ocean conveyor belt and sea ice

Long-lived greenhouse gases as control knob that governs the global surface temperature

Frost flower aerosol effects on Arctic wintertime longwave cloud radiative forcing

Utilization of waste coral for biodiesel production

Increasing temperatures reduce activity patterns of large commercially important coral reef fish

Chronic nutrient enrichment increases prevalence and severity of coral disease and bleaching

+ to – shift in growth response to warming coincides with clearcut harvesting in U.S. red spruce forest

Daily min and max temperatures & diurnal temp. range in Lithuania, Latvia & Estonia in 1951–2010

Patterns in CH4 and CO2 concentrations across boreal rivers

Temperature trends in the mid latitude summer mesosphere

Summer melt regulates winter glacier flow speeds throughout Alaska

The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000–2013 on global mean temperature trends

The deep permafrost carbon pool of the Yedoma region in Siberia and Alaska

Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300

Ebullition and storm-induced methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf

Warming early Mars with CO2 and H2

Estimating global ocean heat content changes in the upper 1800 m since 1950

How fast are the tropics expanding?

Trends and variability of temperature extremes in the tropical Western Pacific

Habitat traits & food availability determine response of marine invertebrates to ocean acidification

Drastic reduction in habitats for alpine vegetation in Pyrenees due to climate change

Projected climate regime shift under future global warming

Glaciers and ice caps: Vulnerable water resources in a warming climate

Climate change alters ecological strategies of soil bacteria

Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change

Adaptation of Iranian farmers to climate variability and change

A 2 million year glacial chronology of the Hatherton Glacier, Antarctica

Estimating tropical cyclone damages under climate change in the Southern Hemisphere

Decadal warming of coastal China Seas and coupling with winter monsoon and currents

Model support for forcing of the 8.2 ka event by meltwater from the Hudson Bay ice dome

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

Revisit to atmospheric oscillations over global oceans

The spatiotemporal pattern of the Majiayao cultural evolution and its relation to climate change

How do weather characteristics change in a warming climate?

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

Intercomparison between observed and simulated variability in global ocean heat content

Changes in weather conditions caused Antarctic sea ice record extent in 2012

Implications of sea-level rise and extreme events around Europe: coastal energy infrastructure

Predicting the sensitivity of butterfly phenology to temperature over the past century

A short history of ocean acidification science in the 20th century: a chemist’s view (open access)

Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change

Climatic Change special issue: Geoengineering Research and its Limitations (mostly open access)

Satellite-based estimates of Antarctic surface meltwater fluxes

Agroforestry solutions to address food security and climate change challenges in Africa

Was there a ‘4.2 ka event’ in Great Britain and Ireland?

Using atmospheric reanalyses to evaluate the warming structure in the Arctic (open access)

Tradeoffs between global warming and day length on start of carbon uptake period (open access)

Estimates of the Southern Ocean General Circulation Improved by Animal-Borne Instruments

Wave climate and trends for the Gulf of Mexico: A 30 year wave hindcast

Rainfall variations in south-eastern Australia part 1: Part 2:

Methodology in qualitative climate change research published in Global Environmental Change since 2000

Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia

Ground-penetrating radar measurements of 64 Austrian glaciers between 1995 and 2010

High-resolution glacial and deglacial record of atmospheric methane (open access)

IPCC “very likely” statement is robust under different characterizations of internal variability

Modeling obliquity and CO2 effects on Southern Hemisphere climate during the past 408 ka

Trend in Arctic sea ice is clearly evident in time series of reflected shortwave radiation

Arctic Ocean glacial history

The influence of political ideology on trust in science (open access)

Land use change emissions from oil palm expansion in Pará, Brazil (open access)

Economic and health benefits of the co-reduction of air pollutants and greenhouse gases

Recent extreme light sea ice years in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (open access)

Opportunities and applications of dendrochronology in Africa

Palaeo-CO2 variation trends and the Cretaceous greenhouse climate

Accelerating carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere (open access)

Weather, Climate, and the Economy: Explaining Risk Perceptions of Global Warming, 2001-2010

Poleward shift and change of frontal activity in the Southern Hemisphere over the last 40 years

Fail-safe solar radiation management geoengineering

Global Sea Level Trend during 1993-2012

Climate impact potential of utilizing forest residues for bioenergy in Norway

Global and Planetary Change special issue: Water in Central Asia – Perspectives under global change

Emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases over Asian regions during 2000–2008 (open access)

Tropical biases in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses

Continued slowing of the Ross Ice Shelf and thickening of West Antarctic ice streams

Effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change (open access)

Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries

The influence of tropical cyclones on heatwaves in Southeastern Australia

Uncertainty in Annual Rankings from NOAA’s Global Temperature Time Series

Break-up of the Larsen B Ice Shelf Triggered by Chain-Reaction Drainage of Supraglacial Lakes

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends

Communication strategies for earning trust in climate change debates

Subglacial lakes and meltwater pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (open access)

Nitrogen deposition: how important is it for global terrestrial carbon uptake? (open access)

Middle to late Miocene stepwise climate cooling

Characterization of double diffusive convection steps and heat budget in the deep Arctic Ocean

Statistically derived contributions of human influences to 20th-century temperature changes

Impacts of global change on southern African water resources systems

Are sustainable cities “happy” cities? In a new study, answer is yes

From projected species distribution to food-web structure under climate change

Statistical analysis of the temperature records for the Northern Territory of Australia

The role of sea ice in the temperature-precipitation feedback of glacial cycles

Increase of storm related loss events can be expected within the next decades in Germany

Meteorologists’ views about global warming: A survey of AMS professional members (open access)

Clouds in Weather and Climate: What Do We Know and What Do We Still Need to Know? (open access)

Intrusion of warm surface water beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

Himalayan ice core CH4 record: possible hints at preindustrial latitudinal gradient (open access)

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Impact of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway and potential strategies for adaptation

The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development

A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea-surface temperature

Robust increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming (open access)

Arctic Ocean circulation patterns revealed by GRACE

Sudden deep gas eruption nearby Rome’s airport of Fiumicino

Climatology of tornadic activity over Greece based on historical records

Projected effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5: unmasking global warming? (open access)

Ocean acidification in the three oceans surrounding northern North America

Solar & cosmic ray contribution to 20th century warming is less than 10% (open access)

North–south asymmetry in modeled phytoplankton community response to climate change

The long-term variability of atmospheric ozone from 50-yr observations in Poland (open access)

Decadal windstorm activity in the North Atlantic-European sector (open access)

A brief history of ice core science over the last 50 yr (open access)

Arctic Sea Ice Conditions in Spring 2009 – 2013 Prior to Melt (open access)

Negative effects of ocean acidification on two crustose coralline species

Climate variability recurrent mode effect on winter/summer extreme temperatures over N America

Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS “Oldest-Ice” ice core (open access)

Lagged Response to 11-year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

Asymmetric effect of beliefs about global warming on perceptions of local climate in the U.S.

The extent of permafrost in China during the local Last Glacial Maximum

More signs of stratospheric ozone recovery (open access)

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over N Atlantic & Europe under recent and future climate

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries

Solar cookers in developing countries—What is their key to success?

Retrieving cloud albedo and fraction from surface-based SW radiation measurements (open access)

Improved assessment of gross and net primary productivity of Canada’s landmass

Potential impact of changes in lower stratospheric water vapour on stratospheric temperatures

Lessons from 1G biofuels and implications for sustainability appraisal of 2G biofuels

Biological proxies recorded in a Belukha ice core, Russian Altai (open access)

High levels of ultraviolet radiation observed below the 2011 Arctic ozone hole (open access)

A note on the stability indicator of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Quantifying CO2 savings from wind power

Home energy management system benefits do not always outweigh their environmental costs

Global energy security under different climate policies, GDP growth rates and fossil resources

Calcification responses of symbiotic and aposymbiotic corals to ocean acidification (open access)

A trend analysis of the 1930-2010 extreme heat events in the continental U.S.

Climate change and water security: challenges for adaptive water management

Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events since 1981 and meteorological causes

Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time

Towards a diagnostic approach to climate adaptation for fisheries

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

Intense atmospheric pollution modifies weather in eastern China (open access)

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

From silk to satellite: half a century of ocean colour anomalies in the Northeast Atlantic

Comparison of NCEP/NCAR & ERA-40 total cloud cover with surface observations over Tibetan Plateau

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution

Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass for two management scenarios in Russia (open access)

Female farmers in Nevada hold more accurate knowledge about climate change than males

No effect on diurnal temperature range from cosmic rays (open access)

Satellite altimetry, Argo, and operational oceanography: 3 revolutions in oceanography (open access)

Tree rings as biosensor to detect leakage of subsurface fossil CO2

Quantifying global climate feedbacks, responses and forcing under abrupt and gradual CO2 forcing

Evidence for cosmic ray modulation in temperature records S Atlantic (open access)

How temperature, precipitation and stand age control biomass carbon density of global mature forests

Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity (open access)

Past millennial solar forcing magnitude (open access)

Climate feedback efficiency and synergy (open access)

How does climate sensitivity vary with the magnitude of climate forcing?

Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation (open access + video abstract)

A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change (open access)

Evidence for multiple stressor interactions and effects on coral reefs

Estimation of extreme sea levels over the Eastern Continental Shelf of North America

How much climate change can pastoral livelihoods tolerate?

Loss and damage from climate change: local–level evidence from nine vulnerable countries

Of solar collectors, wind power, and car sharing: successful cases of grassroots innovations

A fresh look at livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

Widespread sea-water freshening off the Adélie Land Coast, Antarctica, from 1994 to 2012

On the misinterpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP5 models

Assessing the vulnerability of wind energy to climate change and extreme events

Recent cold season warming unprecedented in European Alps in last 1000 yr, cause = GHG forcing

Climate change in the Tibetan Plateau Three Rivers Source Region: 1960–2009

Global streamflow and thermal habitats of freshwater fishes under climate change

Global atmospheric carbon budget (open access)

Review of perceptions and use of weather and climate information in agricultural decision making

Economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and social cost of CO2

The Fatter the Tail, the Fatter the Climate Agreement

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States

Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697 to 2011

Global changes in dryland vegetation dynamics (1988–2008) (open access)

Climate Influences on Meningitis Incidence in Northwest Nigeria

An Observationally Based Constraint on the Water-Vapor Feedback

International trade undermines national emission reduction targets: New evidence from air pollution

Changes in surface shortwave solar irradiance from 1993 to 2011 at Thessaloniki (Greece)

Sea-level change during last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA – currently most rapid period of SLR

Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia

New Eurasian Arctic ice core: unprecedented early 20th century warming, no pronounced MCA or LIA (OA)

Estimating Global Black Carbon Emissions (open access)

Multi-decadal degradation and persistence of permafrost in NW Canada (open access)

Uncertainty Estimates of the EOF-derived North Atlantic Oscillation

New zealand 20th century sea level rise

Unprecedented recent summer warmth in Arctic Canada

What is climate change scepticism? Mixed methods study of the UK public

Geometric dependency of Tibetan lakes on glacial runoff (open access)

Coral reefs have no long-term refugia from the effects of both acidification and bleaching

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation

IPCC CMIP5 simulations compared to observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 (open access)

Climate change hotspots over South America

Interpreting observed northern hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations

Autumn warming reduces the CO2 sink of a black spruce forest in interior Alaska

Climate change and visual imagery

Can temperature extremes in China be calculated from reanalysis?

Alleviating barriers to urban climate change adaptation through international cooperation

Increases in disturbance and reductions in habitat size interact to suppress predator body size

The geography of global urban greenhouse gas emissions: an exploratory analysis

Using ice-flow models to evaluate potential sites of million year-old ice in Antarctica (full access)

Storm track shifts under climate change: what can be learned from large-scale dry dynamics

Observation errors in early historical upper-air observations

Preindustrial Human Impacts on Global and Regional Environment

New assessment supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US

Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say? (open access)

Limited oil resources induce the use of dirty bioenergy

Not all sponges will thrive in a high-CO2 ocean

End-Permian mass extinction rate of CO2 addition was likely small compared with modern situation

Microhabitats reduce animal’s exposure to climate extremes

Future CH4 emissions from W Siberia permafrost might be less than previously estimated (open access)

Changes in the Arctic Ocean CO2 sink

Biochar effect to albedo reduces the benefits from avoided CO2 emissions (open access)

Positive feedback between cloudiness and the Siberian High (open access)

Mixed-phase clouds cause climate model biases in Arctic wintertime temperature inversions

Plant responses to elevated temperatures (open access)

Air–sea exchanges of CO2 in the world’s coastal seas (open access)

Rainfall and temperature estimation for a data sparse region (open access)

Causes of Greenland temperature variability over the past 4000 yr (open access)

Will wind&solar come to rescue of looming capacity gap from nuclear phase-out or slow CCS start-up?

Quaternary Science Reviews has special issue on past sea ice reconstructions

Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate (open access)

Link between Antarctic ozone depletion and summer warming over southern Africa

Economic vulnerability to Peak Oil

Climate change and Australia

Effects of missing values on the calculation of monthly temperature indices

Climate science in climate security scenarios

A global analysis of the impact of drought on net primary productivity (open access)

Detecting and responding to climate change (open access)

Interactive impacts of global dimming and warming on wheat yield and water use in China

A vital link: water and vegetation in the Anthropocene (open access)

Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence (open access)

Last Interview with Professor Edward Lorenz? (open access)

Why could ice ages be unpredictable? (open access)

Global warming enhances sulphide stress in a key seagrass species (NW Mediterranean)

Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment (open access)

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

Subsurface release and transport of dissolved C in discontinuous permafrost region (open access)

Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal (open access)

Chinese Himalayas have been warming during 1971-2007

Extreme rain events have become more common over Europe

Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships’ logbooks (1685–2008)

Philippines have been wetting during wet season and drying during dry season

Activity restriction and the mechanistic basis for extinctions under climate warming

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios

Uncertainty of AMSU-A temperature trends in relationship with clouds and precipitation over ocean

Rapid rise in Effective Sea-Level in southwest Bangladesh: Its causes and contemporary rates

Compensation of hemispheric albedo asymmetries by shifts of the ITCZ and tropical clouds

Evidence from ice shelves for channelized meltwater flow beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Elevation-induced climate change as dominant factor in late Miocene C4 plant expansion in Himalaya

Greenhouse gas-related predictability of regional climate model trends in the Mediterranean area

Conservative Protestantism and skepticism of scientists studying climate change

Generation of a time-consistent land surface temperature product from MODIS data

Re-greening Sahel: 30 years of remote sensing data and field observations

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

N Atlantic SST anomalies and cold N European weather events of winter 2009/10 and December 2010

Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective (open access)

Hydrological Impact of Geoengineering by solar radiation management

Pan-Arctic land–atmosphere CH4 and CO2 fluxes in response to climate change over 21st century (OA)

N Atlantic summer storm track variability: mechanisms & impacts on European climate (open access)

Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts

NIMBYism revisited: public acceptance of wind energy in the United States

Beating a dead horse: no evidence for cosmic ray-climate connection in new study

More rain is projected for East Asia during 21st century

The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies

Community composition has greater impact on marine phytoplankton functioning than acidification

Interactions between CO2, climate, weathering, and Antarctic ice sheet in the earliest Oligocene

Global glacier changes: assessment of committed mass losses and sampling uncertainties (open access)

Public perception of climate change in China: results from the questionnaire survey

Evaluating the Tropical Forest Carbon Sink

Intensification of decadal sea level variability in western tropical Pacific in recent decades

Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS (open access)

Climate change has great impacts on glaciers and glacier lakes on the central Tibetan Plateau

The response of calcifying plankton to climate change in the Pliocene (open access)

Narratives Can Motivate Environmental Action: The Whiskey Creek Ocean Acidification Story

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea (open access)

Impact of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on forest albedo and radiative forcing

Irukandji jellyfish polyps exhibit tolerance to interacting climate change stressors

Global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability pre-1979 (OA)

Response of methane hydrate beneath seabed offshore Svalbard to ocean warming during next 300 yr

Pace of warming following an abrupt increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (open access)

Forecast of Icing Events at a Wind Farm in Sweden

Cloud radiative forcing of the diurnal cycle climate of the Canadian Prairies

Reasons for inconsistencies between modeled and observed temperatures in tropical troposphere

The Impact of Climate Change on Food Production in the United Kingdom

Hurricane wind risk in Louisiana

Economic growth and sustainable development possible while reducing GHG emissions (open access)

Climate change, temperature rise, and heat-related mortality in the Greater Beirut Area

Observational and model estimates of cloud amount feedback over the Indian and Pacific Oceans

Satellite-based reconstruction of the tropical oceanic clear sky outgoing longwave radiation

Combined inequality in wealth and risk leads to disaster in the climate change game

Climate change and road freight safety: a multidisciplinary exploration

The effect of aerosols on long wave radiation and global warming

Ocean-glint scattered sunlight as diagnostic tool for satellite remote sensing of GHGs (open access)

Effective lifetime of CO2 decreases as its atmospheric concentration increases (open access)

Multi-decadal ENSO amplitude variability in a 1000-year simulation

Pine Island glacier ice shelf melt distributed at kilometre scales (open access)

Covariation of NH summertime CO2 with surface temperature in boreal regions (open access)

Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe (open access)

Assessment of the climate preparedness of 30 urban areas in the UK

Recent, very rapid retreat of a temperate glacier in SE Iceland (open access)

Explanation for difference between 20th and 21st century land–sea warming ratio in climate models

Mutualism fails when climate response differs between interacting species

Assessing suitability of apple cultivation under climate change in mountain regions of west Nepal

Eight years of forest-floor CO2 exchange in a boreal black spruce forest

New Antarctic ice sheet mass balance estimate is less negative than previous GRACE estimates (OA)

Variability and predictability of Northeast China climate during 1948–2012

Productivity of rainfed wheat as affected by climate change scenario in NE Punjab, India

On the nature of barriers to climate change adaptation

Glacier area in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru decreased by 25% from 1987 to 2010

Increasing glacier equilibrium-line altitude in the western Alps from 1984 to 2010 (open access)

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

Effect of rate of change, variability, & extreme events on pace of adaptation to changing climate

Scatter of mass changes estimates at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica (open access)

Evidence of meltwater retention within the Greenland ice sheet (open access)

Spatial and seasonal variations in evapotranspiration over Canada’s landmass (open access)

There is not much empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming (open access)

Adapting to climate change: assessing the vulnerability of ecosystem services in Europe

Assessment of thermal bioclimate and tourism climate potential for central Europe (Luxembourg)

Climate change impact on countrywide water balance in Bolivia

Response of diatoms and silicoflagellates to climate change and warming in the California Current

Global Analysis of Erosion of Sandy Beaches and Sea-level Rise

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Moose reacts to high summer temperatures by utilising thermal shelters in boreal forests

Growth rate and climate responses of Pinus pinea in Italian coastal stands over the last century

On the subarctic North Atlantic cooling due to global warming

Delayed Southern Hemisphere climate change induced by stratospheric ozone recovery

Time-varying biases in U.S. total cloud cover data

A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

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IPCC AR5 references – WG1 Chapter 3, Observations: Ocean

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 12, 2013

IPCC reports have extensive reference lists but unfortunately they don’t include direct links to papers. Below are the references in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 3, observations: oceans, with links to abstract pages and full texts where available.

Abeysirigunawardena, D. S., and I. J. Walker, 2008: Sea Level Responses to Climatic Variability and Change in Northern British Columbia. Atmosphere-Ocean, 46, 277-296.

Ablain, M., A. Cazenave, S. Guinehut, and G. Valladeau, 2009: A new assessment of global mean sea level from altimeters highlights a reduction of global slope from 2005 to 2008 in agreement with in-situ measurements. Ocean Sciences, 5, 193 – 201. [FULL TEXT]

Alory, G., S. Wijffels, and G. Meyers, 2007: Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02606.

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IPCC AR5 references – WG1 Chapter 2, observations: atmosphere and surface

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 19, 2013

IPCC reports have extensive reference lists but unfortunately they don’t include direct links to papers. Below are the references in IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 2, observations: atmosphere and surface references with links to abstract pages and full texts where available. The reference list of chapter 2 is very much in draft state – there are lot (and I do mean lot) of errors and missing information in the entries. I informed IPCC about some errors I found at early stage of going though this list, but they answered that it’s just a draft and didn’t seem very interested. I hope they correct it for the final version because it will be embarrasment otherwise. It seems that almost every other entry has some kind of mistake (badly spelled title, incomplete citation,…).

Another curious feature of this reference list is that here and there there are references to EGU discussion papers. They are not peer-reviewed papers, but papers currently under peer-review. It’s not very good idea to use them as references in IPCC reports because the papers in questions might have been rejected and then IPCC report would have non-peer-reviewed references. However, all of the discussion papers referenced here turned out to have final accepted papers, so they were in luck this time.

Abakumova, G. M., E. V. Gorbarenko, E. I. Nezval, and O. A. Shilovtseva, 2008: Fifty years of actinometrical measurements in Moscow. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 29, 2629-2665.

Adam, J. C., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2008: Application of new precipitation and reconstructed streamflow products to streamflow trend attribution in northern Eurasia. Journal of Climate, 21, 1807-1828. [FULL TEXT]

Adler, R. F., G. J. Gu, and G. J. Huffman, 2012: Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51, 84-99.

Adler, R. F., et al., 2003: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 1147-1167. [FULL TEXT]

Aguilar, E., et al., 2009: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in western central Africa, Guinea Conakry, and Zimbabwe, 1955-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114. [FULL TEXT]

Alexander, L. V., P. Uotila, and N. Nicholls, 2009: Influence of sea surface temperature variability on global temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114.

Alexander, L. V., X. L. L. Wang, H. Wan, and B. Trewin, 2011: Significant decline in storminess over southeast Australia since the late 19th century. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61, 23-30. [FULL TEXT]

Alexander, L. V., et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.  Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R., and T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004. Journal of Climate, 19, 5816-5842. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R., S. Tett, and L. Alexander, 2009: Fluctuations in autumn-winter severe storms over the British Isles: 1920 to present. Int. J. Climatology, 29, 357-371. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R. P., 2009: Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations. Journal of Climate, 22, 3127-3145. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R. P., and A. Slingo, 2002: Can current climate model forcings explain the spatial and temporal signatures of decadal OLR variations? Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 1141. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R. P., and B. J. Soden, 2008: Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes. Science, 321, 1481-1484. [FULL TEXT]

Allan, R. P., B. J. Soden, V. O. John, W. Ingram, and P. Good, 2010: Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 5. [FULL TEXT]

Allen, R. J., and S. C. Sherwood, 2007: Utility of radiosonde wind data in representing climatological variations of tropospheric temperature and baroclinicity in the western tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate, 20, 5229-5243. [FULL TEXT]

——, 2008: Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds. Nature Geoscience, 1, 399-403. [FULL TEXT]

Alpert, P., and P. Kishcha, 2008: Quantification of the effect of urbanization on solar dimming. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08801. [FULL TEXT]

Alpert, P., P. Kishcha, Y. J. Kaufman, and R. Schwarzbard, 2005: Global dimming or local dimming?: Effect of urbanization on sunlight availability. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17802. [FULL TEXT]

Andrade, C., S. Leite, and J. Santos, 2012: Temperature extremes in Europe: overview of their driving atmospheric patterns. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12, 1671-1691. [FULL TEXT]

Andronova, N., J. E. Penner, and T. Wong, 2009: Observed and modeled evolution of the tropical mean radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere since 1985. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 114, -. [FULL TEXT]

Angell, J. K., 2006: Changes in the 300-mb North Circumpolar Vortex, 1963-2001. Journal of Climate, 19, 2984-2994. [FULL TEXT]

Anthes, R. A., 2011: Exploring Earth’s atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 4, 1077-1103. [FULL TEXT]

Anthes, R. A., et al., 2008: The COSMOC/FORMOSAT-3 – Mission early results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 313-+. [FULL TEXT]

Archer, C. L., and K. Caldeira, 2008a: Reply to comment by Courtenay Strong and Robert E. Davis on “Historical trends in the jet streams”. Geophysical Research Letters, 35.

——, 2008b: Historical trends in the jet streams. Geophysical Research Letters, 35. [FULL TEXT]

Arndt, D. S., M. O. Baringer, and M. R. Johnson, 2010: STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2009. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, S1-+. [FULL TEXT]

Arnold, T., et al., 2013: Nitrogen trifluoride global emissions estimated from updated atmospheric measurements. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 2029-2034. [FULL TEXT]

Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Y. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Nino Modoki and its possible teleconnection. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 112. [FULL TEXT 25MB]

Asmi, A., et al., 2013: Aerosol decadal trends – Part 2: In-situ aerosol particle number concentrations at GAW and ACTRIS stations. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 895-916. [FULL TEXT]

Atlas, R., R. Hoffman, J. Ardizzone, S. Leidner, J. Jusem, D. Smith, and D. Gombos, 2011: A CROSS-CALIBRATED MULTIPLATFORM OCEAN SURFACE WIND VELOCITY PRODUCT FOR METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANOGRAPHIC APPLICATIONS. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 157-+. [FULL TEXT]

Augustine, J. A., and E. G. Dutton, 2013: Variability of the surface radiation budget over United States from 1996 through 2011 from high-quality measurements. J. Geophys. Res., doi:doi:10.1029/2012JD018551.

Aydin, M., et al., 2011: Recent decreases in fossil-fuel emissions of ethane and methane derived from firn air. Nature, 476, 198-201. [FULL TEXT]

Ballester, J., F. Giorgi, and X. Rodo, 2010: Changes in European temperature extremes can be predicted from changes in PDF central statistics. Climatic Change, 98, 277-284. [FULL TEXT]

Baringer, M. O., D. S. Arndt, and M. R. Johnson, 2010: STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2009. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, S1-+. [FULL TEXT] [NOTE! This seems to be double entry to Arndt et al.]

Barmpadimos, I., J. Keller, D. Oderbolz, C. Hueglin, and A. S. H. Prevot, 2012: One decade of parallel fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10-PM2.5) particulate matter measurements in Europe: trends and variability. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 3189-3203. [FULL TEXT]

Barnston, A. G., and R. E. Livezey, 1987: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Monthly Weather Review, 115, 1083-1126. [FULL TEXT]

Barring, L., and K. Fortuniak, 2009: Multi-indices analysis of southern Scandinavian storminess 1780-2005 and links to interdecadal variations in the NW Europe-North Sea region. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 373-384. [FULL TEXT]

Barriopedro, D., E. M. Fischer, J. Luterbacher, R. Trigo, and R. Garcia-Herrera, 2011: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe. Science, 332, 220-224. [FULL TEXT]

Barrucand, M., M. Rusticucci, and W. Vargas, 2008: Temperature extremes in the south of South America in relation to Atlantic Ocean surface temperature and Southern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 113. [FULL TEXT]

Barton, N. P., and A. W. Ellis, 2009: Variability in wintertime position and strength of the North Pacific jet stream as represented by re-analysis data. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 851-862. [FULL TEXT]

Becker, A., et al., 2013: A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present. Earth System Science Data, 5, 71-99. [FULL TEXT]

Beig, G., and V. Singh, 2007: Trends in tropical tropospheric column ozone from satellite data and MOZART model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17801.

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Bender, F. A. M., V. Ramanathan, and G. Tselioudis, 2012: Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983-2008: observational support for a poleward shift. Climate Dynamics, 38, 2037-2053. [FULL TEXT]

Bengtsson, L., and K. I. Hodges, 2011: On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Climate Dynamics, 36, 419-430. [FULL TEXT]

Beniston, M., 2004: The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 31. [FULL TEXT]

Beniston, M., 2009: Decadal-scale changes in the tails of probability distribution functions of climate variables in Switzerland. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1362-1368. [FULL TEXT]

Bennartz, R., J. Fan, J. Rausch, L. Leung, and A. Heidinger, 2011: Pollution from China increases cloud droplet number, suppresses rain over the East China Sea. Geophysical Research Letters, 38. [FULL TEXT]

Berrisford, P., et al., 2011: Atmospheric conservation properties in ERA-Interim. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, 1381-1399.

Berry, D., and E. Kent, 2011: Air-Sea fluxes from ICOADS: the construction of a new gridded dataset with uncertainty estimates. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 987-1001. [FULL TEXT]

Berry, D. I., and E. C. Kent, 2009: A NEW AIR-SEA INTERACTION GRIDDED DATASET FROM ICOADS WITH UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 645-+. [FULL TEXT]

Berthet, C., J. Dessens, and J. Sanchez, 2011: Regional and yearly variations of hail frequency and intensity in France. Atmospheric Research, 100, 391-400.

Birner, T., 2010: Recent widening of the tropical belt from global tropopause statistics: Sensitivities. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. [FULL TEXT]

Bitz, C. M., and Q. Fu, 2008: Arctic warming aloft is data set dependent. Nature, 455, E3-E4.

Black, E., and R. Sutton, 2007: The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003. Climate Dynamics, 28, 53-66.

Blunden, J., D. S. Arndt, and M. O. Baringer, 2011: State of the Climate in 2010. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, S17-+. [FULL TEXT]

Bohm, R., P. D. Jones, J. Hiebl, D. Frank, M. Brunetti, and M. Maugeri, 2010: The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperature series 1760-2007. Climatic Change, 101, 41-67. [FULL TEXT]

Bonfils, C., P. B. Duffy, B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, D. B. Lobell, T. J. Phillips, and C. Doutriaux, 2008: Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Climatic Change, 87, S43-S55. [FULL TEXT]

Bonisch, H., A. Engel, J. Curtius, T. Birner, and P. Hoor, 2009: Quantifying transport into the lowermost stratosphere using simultaneous in-situ measurements of SF6 and CO2. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 5905-5919. [FULL TEXT]

Bosilovich, M. G., F. R. Robertson, and J. Chen, 2011: Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA. J. Climate, doi:doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4175.1, in press.

Bourassa, M. A., S. T. Gille, D. L. Jackson, J. B. Roberts, and G. A. Wick, 2010: Ocean Winds and Turbulent Air-Sea Fluxes Inferred From Remote Sensing. Oceanography, 23, 36-51.

Bousquet, P., 2011: Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 27603-27630. [FULL TEXT]

Brogniez, H., R. Roca, and L. Picon, 2009: Study of the Free Tropospheric Humidity Interannual Variability Using Meteosat Data and an Advection-Condensation Transport Model. Journal of Climate, 22, 6773-6787. [FULL TEXT]

Bronnimann, S., 2009: Early twentieth-century warming. Nature Geoscience, 2, 735-736.

Bronnimann, S., et al., 2009: Variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices for the northern hemisphere during the past 100 years. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, 379-396. [FULL TEXT]

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Brooks, H., 2012: Severe thunderstorms and climate change.

Brooks, H. E., and N. Dotzek, 2008: The spatial distribution of severe convective storms and an analysis of their secular changes. Climate Extremes and Society, H. F. Diaz, and R. J. Murnane, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 35-53.

Brown, S. J., J. Caesar, and C. A. T. Ferro, 2008: Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 113.  [FULL TEXT]

Brunet, M., et al., 2011: The minimization of the screen bias from ancient Western Mediterranean air temperature records: an exploratory statistical analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 1879-1895.  [FULL TEXT]

Bunge, L., and A. J. Clarke, 2009: A Verified Estimation of the El Nino Index Nino-3.4 since 1877. Journal of Climate, 22, 3979-3992. [FULL TEXT]

Burn, D. H., and N. M. Hesch, 2007: Trends in evaporation for the Canadian prairies. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 61-73.

Caesar, J., L. Alexander, and R. Vose, 2006: Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 111. [FULL TEXT]

Caesar, J., et al., 2011: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Indo-Pacific region from 1971 to 2005. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 791-801. [FULL TEXT]

Cai, W., and P. van Rensch, 2012: The 2011 southeast Queensland extreme summer rainfall: A confirmation of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase? Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L08702.

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Callaghan, J., and S. B. Power, 2011: Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making land-fall
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Casey, K. S., T. B. Brandon, P. Cornillon, and R. Evans, 2010: The Past, Present and Future of the AVHRR Pathfinder SST Program. Oceanography from Space: Revisited, V. Barale, J. F. R. Gower, and L. Alberotanza, Eds., Springer.

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Chambers, L., and G. Griffiths, 2008: The changing nature of temperature extremes in Australia and New Zealand. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 57, 13-35.

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Chapman, W. L., and J. E. Walsh, 2007: A synthesis of Antarctic temperatures. Journal of Climate, 20, 4096-4117. [FULL TEXT]

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Chiacchio, M., and M. Wild, 2010: Influence of NAO and clouds on long-term seasonal variations of surface solar radiation in Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115, D00d22. [FULL TEXT]

Choi, G., et al., 2009: Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1906-1925. [FULL TEXT]

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——, 2009: Discontinuity Issues with Radiosonde and Satellite Temperatures in the Australian Region 1979-2006. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 26, 508-522. [FULL TEXT]

Christy, J. R., W. B. Norris, and R. T. McNider, 2009: Surface Temperature Variations in East Africa and Possible Causes. Journal of Climate, 22, 3342-3356. [FULL TEXT]

Christy, J. R., R. W. Spencer, and W. B. Norris, 2011: The role of remote sensing in monitoring global bulk tropospheric temperatures. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 32, 671-685.

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——, 2007b: Atmospheric blocking: space-time links to the NAO and PNA. Climate Dynamics, 29, 713-725. [FULL TEXT]

Cutforth, H. W., and D. Judiesch, 2007: Long-term changes to incoming solar energy on the Canadian Prairie. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 145, 167-175.

Dai, A., 2006: Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humidity. Journal of Climate, 19, 3589-3606. [FULL TEXT]

Dai, A., 2011a: Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900-2008. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116. [FULL TEXT]

——, 2012: The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923–2010. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1446-5, 1-14. [FULL TEXT]

Dai, A., 2013: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change, 3, 52-58. [FULL TEXT]

Dai, A., T. T. Qian, K. E. Trenberth, and J. D. Milliman, 2009: Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004. Journal of Climate, 22, 2773-2792. [FULL TEXT]

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Dai, A. G., J. H. Wang, P. W. Thorne, D. E. Parker, L. Haimberger, and X. L. L. Wang, 2011: A New Approach to Homogenize Daily Radiosonde Humidity Data. Journal of Climate, 24, 965-991.

Das, L., J. D. Annan, J. C. Hargreaves, and S. Emori, 2011: Centennial scale warming over Japan: are the rural stations really rural? Atmospheric Science Letters, doi:10.1002/asl.350. [FULL TEXT]

Davidson, E., 2009: The contribution of manure and fertilizer nitrogen to atmospheric nitrous oxide since 1860. Nature Geoscience, 2, 659-662.

Davini, P., C. Cagnazzo, S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra, 2012: Bidimensional Diagnostics, Variability, and Trends of Northern Hemisphere Blocking. Journal of Climate, 25, 6496-6509.

Davis, S. M., and K. H. Rosenlof, 2011: A multi-diagnostic intercomparison of tropical width time series using reanalyses and satellite observations. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-1111-00127.00121.

De Laat, A. T. J., and A. N. Maurellis, 2006: Evidence for influence of anthropogenic surface processes on lower tropospheric and surface temperature trends. International Journal of Climatology, 26, 897-913. [FULL TEXT]

de Meij, A., A. Pozzer, and J. Lelieveld, 2012: Trend analysis in aerosol optical depths and pollutant emission estimates between 2000 and 2009. Atmospheric Environment, 51, 75-85. [FULL TEXT]

De Smedt, I., T. Stavrakou, J. F. Müller, R. J. van der A, and M. Van Roozendael, 2010: Trend detection in satellite observations of formaldehyde tropospheric columns. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L18808.

Dee, D. P., E. Kallen, A. J. Simmons, and L. Haimberger, 2011a: Comments on “Reanalyses Suitable for Characterizing Long-Term Trends”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 65-70. [FULL TEXT]

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DeGaetano, A. T., 2009: Time-Dependent Changes in Extreme-Precipitation Return-Period Amounts in the Continental United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 48, 2086-2099. [FULL TEXT]

Delgado, J. M., H. Apel, and B. Merz, 2010: Flood trends and variability in the Mekong river. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 407-418. [FULL TEXT]

Della-Marta, P. M., M. R. Haylock, J. Luterbacher, and H. Wanner, 2007a: Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 112. [FULL TEXT]

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Thank you!

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 1, 2013

In the social media, I’m not the most responsive guy. People follow me, retweet me, blogroll me, and so on, but I rarely react. It’s not because I don’t care, but I just don’t have time to follow all the things that are going on.

This post is for you who have complemented me or shared my links in internet forums, liked or shared my links in Facebook, favorited or retweeted me in Twitter, included me into the blogroll of your excellent blog, or printed one of my paperlists and shoved it to the throat of their denier-friend:

Thank you. I don’t say this enough (or at all), but I do appreciate your actions to redistribute the science I have decided to include to my channels.

In Twitter, I mostly stay quiet because I want to keep my account strictly to “business” (it’s not really business as I don’t get paid for this) and I don’t want to bother people with too many chatty tweets. Almost every day there are several people who favorite and retweet my tweets in the Twitter. Thank you for that.

In Facebook, AGW observer page is somewhat quieter. But also there the likes and shares are precious, because it gives more “air-time” to the science.

And that is what I really want to show – the science. Real heroes here are the scientists. I’m just a paracite who feeds on their work. Please follow every social media account of climate scientists, climate journals and climate institutions. And show an extended middle finger to those entities that try to show climate science community in bad light.

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