Has global warming stopped?

For a long time there has been claims about global warming having stopped, and that there hasn’t been warming in N years or since year X. Current fashion is to claim that there hasn’t been any warming in 16 years. All of this is of course irrelevant to the anthropogenic global warming, which according to Easterling & Wehner (2009) “can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer‐term warming”.

Standard time-period of significance to climate is 30 years. Below global surface temperature anomalies are presented as running 30-year mean.

Do you see any signs of global warming stopping?

Climate skeptic claims prebunked by Keeling

If you have followed discussions about global warming, you probably have seen claims that because atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is measured on the top of a volcano (actually on the side – the measurement station is at the elevation of 3400m while the top of the mountain is at the elevation of over 4100m), and that volcanos emit carbon dioxide, the carbon dioxide measurements cannot be trusted.  Thus the argument concludes that we don’t know if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is rising or not. Here we take a look at what Charles David Keeling (1928 – 2005) wrote long ago.

As many of you probably know, Keeling was the one who arranged atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements starting in the 1950s, that resulted in the famous Keeling Curve, which describes the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide as measured in Hawaii, on top of a volcano called Mauna Loa. The measurement site was selected, because Hawaii is located in the middle of an ocean and far away from disturbing carbon dioxide sources. Also, the elevation of the location of the station ensures that measured air masses are representative of large areas. However, as the Keeling Curve is famous and is drawn from the measurements that originate at a site that has volcanic vents nearby, it is quite natural that there are claims made that the presence of the volcano somehow invalidates all our knowledge of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Many readers of course know that it isn’t so, but here we look at what Keeling wrote about the issue in 1960. It turns out he had already debunked the claims, even before those claims were made.

In 1960, Keeling published the paper The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere (full text freely available in the linked abstract page). In this paper he discussed results from carbon dioxide measurements during a few years of observtions. Early in the paper he says:

“Three gas analysers, as described by SMITH (1953), equipped with strip chart recorders, have been employed to measure the concentration of carbon dioxide continuously at stations in Antarctica, Hawaii, and California.”

So already from the beginning of Keeling’s measurements there were other measurement stations besides Mauna Loa. End of story? Well, pretty much so for those claims, but anyway, let’s take a look at what other things Keeling has to say on the subject.

Despite the reality, what if Mauna Loa was the only atmospheric carbon dioxide measuring station as those claims suggest? Would carbon dioxide measurements be suspect because of that? Keeling discusses this too. Keeling notes that there was local contamination in all of the measurement stations. In the Antarctica station there was some combustion of fuel near the station:

“It could be readily spotted from the significant fluctuations in the otherwise steady trace of the recorder pen and was eliminated from consideration in the initial reading of the charts.”

In Mauna Loa, there also was some extra variability in the measurement record:

“This is attributed to release of carbon dioxide by nearby volcanic vents; combustion on the island associated with agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities; and lower concentration of carbon dioxide in the air transported to the station by upslope winds.”

It seems that Keeling was well aware that “Mauna Loa is a volcano”. He also identified some other sources of contamination. Not only was Keeling aware of the situation, he also knew how to correct it:

“The values reported here are averages of data for periods of downslope winds or strong lateral winds when the concentration remained nearly constant for several hours or more.”

At a California measurement station there was an interesting situation. The measured carbon dioxide concentration was found to be highly variable:

“Highest concentrations occur during light winds from the north, from the direction of Los Angeles; lowest concentrations when the wind is from the west or southwest and of moderate force or greater.”

Highest concentrations when winds were blowing from a large city? Why is that? Could it be that there is carbon dioxide coming from human actions?

Keeling then proceeds to discuss seasonal variation which he finds in the Northern Hemisphere but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Based on carbon-13 measurements, he concludes that the seasonal variation found in the Northern Hemisphere is from the activity of land plants. He also notes that timing of maximum and minimum concentrations match the timing of the land vegetation activity in the Northern Hemisphere. Keeling explains the absence of seasonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere by the smaller area of vegetation in the Southern Hemisphere.

Getting back to the claims of CO2 record contamination, Keeling then discusses the interannual trends in carbon dioxide concentration:

“Where data extend beyond one year, averages for the second year are higher than for the first year. At the South Pole, where the longest record exists, the concentration has increased at the rate of about 1.3 p.p.m. per year.”

Note that Keeling reported the first clear increase in carbon dioxide concentration from the South Pole, not from Mauna Loa.

So, already back in 1960, Keeling knew that Mauna Loa was a volcano. He also knew how to correct the problems that the volcano caused for carbon dioxide measurements. He also knew that the volcanic problems wouldn’t matter anyway because there were other measurement stations that were nowhere near any volcanos, and those stations show the same thing as Mauna Loa station – atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is rising.

Short and long term water vapor feedback

There’s a lot of discussion on water vapor feedback in different media. Relating to this discussion, I’d like to note an interesting paper which seems to have gone largely unnoticed (also in scientific literature). The paper in question is “An Elicitation of the Dynamic Nature of Water Vapor Feedback in Climate Change Using a 1D Model” by Hallegatte et al. (2006).

Hallegatte et al. are studying the different response times of feedback processes and how they affect the overall water vapor feedback. They say:

Another difficulty in the interpretation of feedback processes arises from the speed of the different responses. Some processes participating in the feedback mechanism may be fast, others may be very slow. This problem is usually avoided by analyzing only the new equilibrium reached by the system after a perturbation has been applied. This current practice might, however, ignore important dynamical components of the response, especially when the forcing is varying.

They study this question with a simple 1D model for atmospheric water vapor. The simplicity of the model of course introduces some uncertainties (they can’t model the dynamic changes for example in Hadley circulation and convection is accounted for only indirectly).

The result of their analysis is shown in the following graph, which shows the evolution of water vapor feedback after a step change in the forcing (doubling of carbon dioxide concentration):

Feedback factor having value below 1 represents negative water vapor feedback. As we can see from the graph, the end result is strongly positive water vapor feedback after 10 years. However, especially noteworthy feature is the apparently negative short-term feedback. It seems that water vapor feedback turns positive only after 2-3 years.

Hallegatte et al. explain this fast negative feedback like this:

The fast pole corresponds to the lowering of latent heat flux due to rainfall decrease, which comes from the rising temperature (corresponding to a decrease in RH). This mechanism constitutes one path of the WV feedback: any transient trajectory showing an increase in atmospheric absolute humidity requires an imbalance between precipitation and evaporation, and hence necessitates an increase in atmospheric latent energy content compared with the equilibrium state. In consequence, the WV feedback process should involve a rapid atmospheric cooling, as formalized in our model, with a time response of about a few weeks.

They also study how the water vapor feedback works for more realistic change in the forcing instead of step change. In this case, the fast negative feedback is hardly detectable, but it only reduces the initial warming a bit.

Their conclusion:

In our model, the WV feedback is found to have a positive static gain of 36%, and a characteristic time longer than 4 yr, making the WV feedback fully active only in response to perturbations that last at least 10 yr.

It seems that based on this study, studying water vapor feedback in the context of anthropogenic global warming should be done in decadal time scales.

Reference: Hallegatte, Stéphane, Alain Lahellec, Jean-Yves Grandpeix, 2006: An Elicitation of the Dynamic Nature of Water Vapor Feedback in Climate Change Using a 1D Model. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1878–1894. [abstract, full text]

See also: On quick feedback determinations

Cosmic ray contribution to global warming negligible

There has been claims that cosmic rays could have contributed significantly to global warming. According to a new study that is not the case. Instead, during the last 50 years, cosmic rays seemed to have caused warming of about 0.002°C – a negligible amount compared to observed warming.

Cosmic rays have been claimed to be a significant source for the formation of cloud condensation nuclei and through that they have been claimed to affect Earth’s climate significantly. There has been many studies debunking these claims and currently it seems that the possible effect of cosmic rays on the climate is small. It is however likely that there are some mechanisms by which cosmic rays do affect cloud formation at least a little. For example, recently a correlation was found in Europe between diurnal temperature range (difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures) and strong cosmic ray flux changes (Forbush decreases and ground level enhancements).

A new study by Erlykin et al. evaluates the effects of cosmic rays to cloud cover. The paper discusses previous cosmic ray research, and performs some new analysis. They use cloud cover measurements of International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). There has been criticisms of ISCCP data, but the researchers believe that ISCCP problems do not affect their results.

Evidence of cosmic ray effects

Solar activity changes during the sunspot cycle and that affects Earth’s temperature. According to Erlykin et al. the change in temperature then affects the height of low clouds. The change of height makes some of the low clouds migrate to medium cloud region. This would then cause a decrease in low cloud amount. This would also be a candidate for the origin of the correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud cover (because solar activity changes are known to affect also cosmic ray flux). When analysing cloud cover changes it would make sense to look at the changes in both the low and medium clouds. When both low and medium clouds are included to the correlation analysis, the correlation with cosmic ray flux is poor.

Forbush decreases (few percent decrease in cosmic ray flux that lasts few days) have been claimed to cause cloud cover changes. However, the observed correlations between cloud cover changes and cosmic ray flux during a few Forbush decreases could have been coincidental. Additionally, delay between the changes in cosmic ray flux and in cloud cover seems to have been too long for a physical cause. Some of the strongest Forbush decreases have also been associated with strong changes in solar activity, which also places more clouds over the cosmic ray hypothesis.

Nevertheless there are some evidence relating to Forbush decreases that suggests some kind of effect in cloud cover. The strongest effect seems to lie in the stratosphere, but there is also some evidence for an effect in troposphere. It is unclear if these effects are due to cosmic rays or solar activity.

For cosmic ray flux ground level enhancements there also is some evidence of cloud effects. The strongest effect seems to occur in the poles which might suggest genuine cosmic ray involvement. Erlykin et al. estimate a global effect of about 1 % to cloud cover during ground level enhancements.

In a recent analysis it was found out that in mid-latitudes rapid changes in cloud cover are associated with changes in cosmic ray flux and in surface temperature. Strong reaction here only occurs during the rapid cloud cover changes which are rare events, so the total effect of cosmic rays still seems to be small. Here too it is unclear if the observed effects are due to cosmic rays or simultaneous changes in solar activity.

In the case of these rapid changes, the rate of change in clouds and in cosmic rays have been different which speaks against the cosmic ray origin. On the other hand, linking these cloud changes to solar activity is also problematic, because most of the UV radiation stops in the stratosphere and therefore would not be able to cause changes to most of the cloud cover. It is possible that the explanation for cloud changes is found in surface temperature changes caused by solar activity changes.

There is lot of evidence from polar regions on stratospheric cosmic ray effects, which usually are related to solar flares. It seems that cosmic rays have an effect on stratospheric aerosols, ozone, wind, temperature, pressure and ionisation. There are also some evidence of possible effect on stratospheric clouds during Forbush decreases and other cosmic ray flux changes, but the size of the possible effect is unclear.

Correlation between cosmic ray flux and cloud cover

Analysis of cloud cover correlation between cosmic rays and UV radiation reveals that correlation is significant only in these cases: low cloud cover with cosmic rays (positive correlation) and with UV radiation (negative), medium cloud cover with UV radiation (positive), and high cloud cover with cosmic rays (negative). For the case of UV radiation, the different sign for the correlation with low and medium cloud cover might be explainable by part of low cloud cover changing to medium cloud cover when surface temperature changes. For cosmic rays, the negative correlation with high cloud cover is not what would be expected from ionization mechanism.

The correlation of cosmic rays with low cloud cover is the correlation that has been claimed to cause the global warming. However, the spatial distribution of the correlation does not fit to the expectations from cosmic ray origin. Correlation is strong in mid-latitudes, but weak in the poles and in the equator. Mid-latitude correlation is about 8 times higher than the correlation in equator and in poles. This distribution of correlation results a possible effect to global cloud cover which is smaller than 1%.

According to Erlykin et al. the cosmic ray flux has decreased about 0.6% in last 50 years. Assuming 1% effect of the cosmic rays to cloud cover, this would cause a change of 0.002°C in global surface temperature. This is negligible compared to the observed global warming in last 50 years. In conclusion, while cosmic rays do seem to have some minor effects to different things in the atmosphere, they do not seem to have anything to do with global warming.

Source: A.D. Erlykin, B.A. Laken and A.W. Wolfendale, Cosmic ray effects on cloud cover and their relevance to climate change, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2011.03.001. [abstract]

Papers on sea level in small island countries

This is a list of papers on sea level changes in small island countries such as Maldives. Emphasis is on the sea level observations, not its consequences. There are plenty of papers dealing with vulnerability of the island countries but so far only couple of such papers are included here. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

UPDATE (November 17, 2011): Merrifield (2011) and Becker et al. (2012) added.

Sea level variations at tropical Pacific islands since 1950 – Becker et al. (2012) “The western tropical Pacific is usually considered as one of the most vulnerable regions of the world under present-day and future global warming. It is often reported that some islands of the region already suffer significant sea level rise. To clarify the latter concern, in the present study we estimate sea level rise and variability since 1950 in the western tropical Pacific region (20°S–15°N; 120°E–135°W). We estimate the total rate of sea level change at selected individual islands, as a result of climate variability and change, plus vertical ground motion where available. For that purpose, we reconstruct a global sea level field from 1950 to 2009, combining long (over 1950–2009) good quality tide gauge records with 50-year-long (1958–2007) gridded sea surface heights from the Ocean General Circulation Model DRAKKAR. The results confirm that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a strong modulating effect on the interannual sea level variability of the western tropical Pacific, with lower/higher-than-average sea level during El Niño/La Niña events, of the order of ± 20–30 cm. Besides this sub-decadal ENSO signature, sea level of the studied region also shows low-frequency (multi decadal) variability which superimposes to, thus in some areas amplifies current global mean sea level rise due to ocean warming and land ice loss. We use GPS precise positioning records whenever possible to estimate the vertical ground motion component that is locally superimposed to the climate-related sea level components. Superposition of global mean sea level rise, low-frequency regional variability and vertical ground motion shows that some islands of the region suffered significant ‘total’ sea level rise (i.e., that felt by the population) during the past 60 years. This is especially the case for the Funafuti Island (Tuvalu) where the “total” rate of rise is found to be about 3 times larger than the global mean sea level rise over 1950–2009.” M. Becker, B. Meyssignac, C. Letetrel, W. Llovel, A. Cazenave, T. Delcroix, Global and Planetary Change, Volumes 80-81, January 2012, Pages 85-98, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.004.

A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s – Merrifield (2011) “Pacific Ocean sea surface height trends from satellite altimeter observations for 1993–2009 are examined in the context of longer tide gauge records and wind stress patterns. The dominant regional trends are high rates in the western tropical Pacific and minimal to negative rates in the eastern Pacific, particularly off North America. Interannual sea level variations associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation events do not account for these trends. In the western tropical Pacific, tide gauge records indicate that the recent high rates represent a significant trend increase in the early 1990s relative to the preceding 40 years. This sea level trend shift in the western Pacific corresponds to an intensification of the easterly trade winds across the tropical Pacific. The wind change appears to be distinct from climate variations centered in the North Pacific, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the eastern Pacific, tide gauge records exhibit higher-amplitude decadal fluctuations than in the western tropical Pacific, and the recent negative sea level trends are indistinguishable from these fluctuations. The shifts in trade wind strength and western Pacific sea level rate resemble changes in dominant global modes of outgoing longwave radiation and sea surface temperature. It is speculated that the western Pacific sea level response indicates a general strengthening of the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific since the early 1990s that has developed in concert with recent warming trends.” Merrifield, Mark A., 2011: A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s. J. Climate, 24, 4126–4138, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1. [Full text]

Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate – Han et al. (2010) “Global sea level has risen during the past decades as a result of thermal expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater addition from melting continental ice. However, sea-level rise is not globally uniform. Regional sea levels can be affected by changes in atmospheric or oceanic circulation. As long-term observational records are scarce, regional changes in sea level in the Indian Ocean are poorly constrained. Yet estimates of future sea-level changes are essential for effective risk assessment. Here we combine in situ and satellite observations of Indian Ocean sea level with climate-model simulations, to identify a distinct spatial pattern of sea-level rise since the 1960s. We find that sea level has decreased substantially in the south tropical Indian Ocean whereas it has increased elsewhere. This pattern is driven by changing surface winds associated with a combined invigoration of the Indian Ocean Hadley and Walker cells, patterns of atmospheric overturning circulation in the north–south and east–west direction, respectively, which is partly attributable to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. We conclude that—if ongoing anthropogenic warming dominates natural variability—the pattern we detected is likely to persist and to increase the environmental stress on some coasts and islands in the Indian Ocean.” Weiqing Han, Gerald A. Meehl, Balaji Rajagopalan, John T. Fasullo, Aixue Hu, Jialin Lin, William G. Large, Jih-wang Wang, Xiao-Wei Quan, Laurie L. Trenary, Alan Wallcraft, Toshiaki Shinoda & Stephen Yeager, Nature Geoscience 3, 546 – 550 (2010), doi:10.1038/ngeo901. [Full text]

Wind Effects on Past and Future Regional Sea Level Trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific – Timmermann et al. (2010) “Global sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines worldwide. At present the global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr⁻¹ with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea level trends varies greatly spatially, attaining values of up to 10 mm yr⁻¹ in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, the study shows that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind regimes. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of 10 state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over the next century, wind-induced redistributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea level rise. Wind-related changes in near-surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands, and French Polynesia oppose—but cannot cancel—the regional signal of global mean sea level rise.” Timmermann, Axel, Shayne McGregor, Fei-Fei Jin, 2010, J. Climate, 23, 4429–4437, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3519.1.

The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific – Webb & Kench (2010) “Low-lying atoll islands are widely perceived to erode in response to measured and future sea-level rise. Using historical aerial photography and satellite images this study presents the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 atoll islands in the central Pacific over a 19 to 61 yr period. This period of analysis corresponds with instrumental records that show a rate of sea-level rise of 2.0 mm yr⁻¹ in the Pacific. Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis. Largest decadal rates of increase in island area range between 0.1 to 5.6 ha. Only 14% of study islands exhibited a net reduction in island area. Despite small net changes in area, islands exhibited larger gross changes. This was expressed as changes in the planform configuration and position of islands on reef platforms. Modes of island change included: ocean shoreline displacement toward the lagoon; lagoon shoreline progradation; and, extension of the ends of elongate islands. Collectively these adjustments represent net lagoonward migration of islands in 65% of cases. Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea-level rise in the central Pacific. First, islands are geomorphologically persistent features on atoll reef platforms and can increase in island area despite sea-level change. Second, islands are dynamic landforms that undergo a range of physical adjustments in responses to changing boundary conditions, of which sea level is just one factor. Third, erosion of island shorelines must be reconsidered in the context of physical adjustments of the entire island shoreline as erosion may be balanced by progradation on other sectors of shorelines. Results indicate that the style and magnitude of geomorphic change will vary between islands. Therefore, island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.” Arthur P. Webb and Paul S. Kench, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 72, Issue 3, June 2010, Pages 234-246, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.05.003. [Full text]

Submerged reef terraces of the Maldives (Indian Ocean) – Fürstenau et al. (2009) “There is limited knowledge about the record of sea-level rise from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until the onset of Holocene reef growth in the Maldives archipelago. Multibeam data show that atoll slopes between 130 and 55 mbsl (meters below sea level) are characterized by a step-like morphology. In parts, these terraces show a raised rim and a crenate geometry. Atoll margin features can be interpreted as successive reef-growth and -drowning stages, which are attributable to changes in the rate of sea-level rise. These changes can tentatively be correlated to known records of global sea-level change since the LGM. In addition to terraces between 97 and 55 mbsl, which can be associated with the initiation of meltwater pulses MWP-1A and -1B, several reef-drowning stages between 94 and 68 mbsl are proposed. As the Maldives can be considered a tectonically stable, far-field site, the submerged reef terraces inferred from the first multibeam dataset for this region likely represent a valuable archive for global deglacial sea-level history in the Indian Ocean.” Jörn Fürstenau, Sebastian Lindhorst, Christian Betzler and Christian Hübscher, Geo-Marine Letters, Volume 30, Number 5, 511-515, DOI: 10.1007/s00367-009-0174-2.

Late Quaternary reef growth and sea level in the Maldives (Indian Ocean) – Gischler et al. (2008) “Based on rotary drilling and radiometric and U-series dating, we present the first comprehensive data on Holocene reef anatomy and sea-level rise as well as nature and age of underlying Pleistocene limestone in the Maldives. Holocene reefs in Rasdhoo Atoll, central Maldives, are composed of four facies including (1) robust-branching coral facies, (2) coralline algal facies, (3) domal coral facies, and (4) detrital sand and rubble facies. Branching coral and coralline algal facies predominate the marginal reefs and domal corals and detrital facies preferentially occur in a lagoon reef. In addition, microbialite crusts are found in lower core sections of marginal reefs. Microbialites formed during the early Holocene in reef cavities. Holocene reef thickness ranges from 14.5 m to > 22 m. Reef growth started as early as 8.5 kyr BP. Marginal reefs accreted in the keep-up mode with rates of > 15 m/kyr. Rate of sea-level rise significantly slowed down from 7–6 kyr BP and subsequently gradually rose with rates < 1 m/kyr. The lagoon reef accreted in the catch-up mode with rates of around 4 m/kyr. Even though no indications of a higher than present sea level were found during this study, it is not entirely clear from the data whether the sea gradually rose to or exceeded present level in the late Holocene. Submarine cementation in Holocene reefs studied is rather weak, presumably as a consequence of high accretion-rates, i.e., short time available for consolidation. Pleistocene coral grainstone was encountered in one core at 14.5 m below present level and three U-series dates indicate deposition during marine isotope stage 5e ca. 135 kyr BP.” Eberhard Gischler, J. Harold Hudson and Andrzej Pisera, Marine Geology, Volume 250, Issues 1-2, 21 April 2008, Pages 104-113, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2008.01.004.

Reef-island topography and the vulnerability of atolls to sea-level rise – Woodroffe (2008) “Low-lying reef islands on the rim of atolls are perceived as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise. Three effects are inferred: erosion of the shoreline, inundation of low-lying areas, and saline intrusion into the freshwater lens. Regional reconstruction of sea-level trends, supplementing the short observational instrumental record, indicates that monthly mean sea level is rising in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. This paper reviews the morphology and substrate characteristics of reef islands on Indo-Pacific atolls, and summarises their topography. On most atolls across this region, there is an oceanward ridge built by waves to a height of around 3 m above MSL; in a few cases these are topped by wind-blown dunes. The prominence of these ridges, together with radiocarbon dating and multi-temporal studies of shoreline position, indicate net accretion rather than long-term erosion on most of these oceanward shores. Less prominent lagoonward ridges occur, but their morphology and continuity are atoll-specific, being a function of the processes operating in each lagoon. Low-lying central areas are a feature of many islands, often locally excavated for production of taro. These lower-lying areas are already subject to inundation, which seems certain to increase as the sea rises. Tropical storms play an important role in the geomorphology of reef islands in those regions where they are experienced. Topographical differences, as well as features such as emergence of the reef flat and the stability of the substrate, mean that islands differ in terms of their susceptibility to sea-level rise. Further assessment of variations in shoreline vulnerability based on topography and substrate could form the basis for enhancing the natural resilience of these islands.” Colin D. Woodroffe, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 62, Issues 1-2, May 2008, Pages 77-96, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.11.001. [Full text]

Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands – Church et al. (2006) “Historical and projected sea-levels for islands in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans are a subject of considerable interest and some controversy. The large variability (e.g. El Niño) signals and the shortness of many of the individual tide-gauge records contribute to uncertainty of historical rates of sea-level rise. Here, we determine rates of sea-level rise from tide gauges in the region. We also examine sea-level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter and from a reconstruction of sea level in order to put the sparse (in space and time) tide-gauge data into context. For 1993 to 2001, all the data show large rates of sea-level rise over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean (approaching 30 mm yr⁻¹) and sea-level falls in the eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean (approaching − 10 mm yr⁻¹). Over the region 40°S to 40°N, 30°E to 120°W, the average rise is about 4 mm yr⁻¹. For 1950 to 2001, the average sea-level rise (relative to land) from the six longest tide-gauge records is 1.4 mm yr⁻¹. After correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment and atmospheric pressure effects, this rate is 2.0 mm yr⁻¹, close to estimates of the global average and regional average rate of rise. The long tide-gauge records in the equatorial Pacific indicate that the variance of monthly averaged sea-level after 1970 is about twice that before 1970. We find no evidence for the fall in sea level at the Maldives as postulated by Mörner et al. (2004). Our best estimate of relative sea-level rise at Funafuti, Tuvalu is 2 ± 1 mm yr⁻¹ over the period 1950 to 2001. The analysis clearly indicates that sea-level in this region is rising. We expect that the continued and increasing rate of sea-level rise and any resulting increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme sea-level events will cause serious problems for the inhabitants of some of these islands during the 21st century.” John A. Church, Neil J. White, and John R. Hunter, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 53, Issue 3, September 2006, Pages 155-168, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.04.001. [Full text]

Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands? – Woodworth (2005) “The Maldive Islands are often used as case studies within research into the impacts of potential future sea level change. Therefore, if such studies are to be realistic, it is important that the past and future variations of sea level in the islands are understood as well as possible. That objective led a fieldwork team to the Maldives, and resulted in a conclusion that sea level in the islands fell by approximately 30 cm during the past few decades. In the present paper, the suggestion of such a fall has been examined from meteorological and oceanographic perspectives and found to be implausible. A number of met-ocean data sets and regional climate indices have been examined, at least one of which would have been expected to reflect a large sea level fall, without any supporting evidence being found. In particular, a suggestion that an increase in evaporation could have caused the fall has been demonstrated to be incorrect. Without any real evidence for a hitherto-unrecognised process which could lead to a sea level change as significant as that proposed by the fieldwork team, one concludes that a rise in sea level of approximately half a metre during the 21st century, as suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, remains the most reliable scenario to employ in future studies of the islands.” Philip L. Woodworth, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 49, Issues 1-2, November 2005, Pages 1-18, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.04.001.

Late Quaternary sea-level highstands in the central and eastern Indian Ocean: A review – Woodroffe (2005) “The relative sea-level history of several atolls in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, including the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Chagos Archipelago, and the Maldives–Laccadive Archipelagoes, has been debated for over a century but takes on a particular significance in the face of anticipated climate change. For each of these central and eastern Indian Ocean atolls Pleistocene limestone is encountered at depths of 6–20 m below sea level. On the Cocos (Keeling) Islands this has been dated to Last Interglacial age. Conglomerate platform underlies the reef islands on Cocos within which a sequence of fossil microatolls of massive and branching Porites records a gradual fall of sea level relative to the atoll. In the Maldives, the significance of outcrops of ‘reef rock’ has been vigorously debated without resolving sea-level history. Although in situ Heliopora occurs on the reef flat of Addu Atoll, dated at around 2700 radiocarbon yrs BP, other evidence for higher sea level remains poorly constrained. Conglomerates of a similar age have been described from the Chagos Archipelago, but it has not been unequivocally demonstrated that they formed under conditions of relatively higher sea level. In contrast to reefs further west in the Indian Ocean, each of these atolls has living microatolls of massive Porites that have been constrained in their upward growth by sea level. Interpretation of the upper surface of two such specimens from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands indicates broad fluctuations in the sea surface over the past century; similar microatolls are described from the Maldives implying little change in sea level over recent years. Regardless of minor past fluctuations, most reef islands in the Maldives are particularly low-lying and appear vulnerable to inundation, and extracting a more detailed sea-level history remains an important challenge.” Colin D. Woodroffe, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 49, Issues 1-2, November 2005, Pages 121-138, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.06.002.

Holocene sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific – Woodroffe & Horton (2005) “Holocene sea-level reconstructions exist from many locations in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite being a large geographical region, the nature of Holocene sea-level change is broadly similar in all locations. Differences do exist, however, in the timing and magnitude of the Mid-Holocene High Stand (MHHS) and the nature of late Holocene sea level fall across the region. When the Indo-Pacific is subdivided into smaller regions, these discrepancies do not disappear, and in some cases the discrepancies are large within a single coastline. It is clear from this analysis that the fundamental criteria to produce accurate local relative sea-level curves are hardly ever met. There are serious problems associated with the correct interpretation of sea-level indicators and their relationship to mean sea level, and with the quality of age determinations. A consistent methodology throughout the Indo-Pacific for the analysis of sea level data is lacking. Future sea-level analysis from far field locations must involve the application of a consistent methodology in order to allow meaningful comparison between studies. This should help to resolve the ongoing debate about the magnitude and timing of the Mid-Holocene High Stand, and the nature of late Holocene sea-level fall across the region.” S. A. Woodroffe and B. P. Horton, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Volume 25, Issue 1, April 2005, Pages 29-43, doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2004.01.009.

New perspectives for the future of the Maldives – Mörner et al. (2004) “Novel prospects for the Maldives do not include a condemnation to future flooding. The people of the Maldives have, in the past, survived a higher sea level of about 50–60 cm. The present trend lack signs of a sea level rise. On the contrary, there is firm morphological evidence of a significant sea level fall in the last 30 years. This sea level fall is likely to be the effect of increased evaporation and an intensification of the NE-monsoon over the central Indian Ocean.” Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, and Göran Possnert, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 40, Issues 1-2, January 2004, Pages 177-182, doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00108-5. [Full text]

Coral microatolls and 20th century sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean – Smithers & Woodroffe (2001) “Coral microatolls are discoid intertidal corals that are limited in their upward growth by subaerial exposure during low tides. Microatoll upper surface morphology preserves a filtered record of changes in the height of living coral (HLC), the upper limit to which corals can grow, and by proxy a historical record of former constraining water levels. Chronologies for these variations in HLC were established in this study using annual skeletal density bands revealed when skeletal slices were X-radiographed, supplemented by annual fluorescent bands visible when samples were illuminated with ultra-violet light. The upper surface morphologies of two large microatolls from separate reef-flat sites on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands are well correlated and indicate that the upper limit to coral growth has fluctuated by more than 5 cm since the early 1900s. The upper surfaces of these microatolls also indicate that there has been little net rise in sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean during the 20th century. Microatoll surface morphology suggests that average rates of sea-level rise in the eastern Indian Ocean over this period were less than 0.35 mm yr−1, a rate considerably lower than the rate of average global sea-level change determined from aggregated tide-gauge data. The broad surface undulations do not appear to correlate directly with either El Niño-Southern Oscillation events or occurrence of the Indian Ocean dipole mode of ocean-atmosphere circulation. Microatolls provide a simple and effective method for extrapolating broad variations in sea level beyond the tide-gauge record in remote mid-oceanic settings.” Scott G. Smithers and Colin D. Woodroffe, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 191, Issues 1-2, 30 August 2001, Pages 173-184, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(01)00417-4.

Illuminating Sea-Level Fall around AD 1220–1510 (730-440 cal yr BP) in the Pacific Islands: Implications for Environmental Change and Cultural Transformation – Nunn (2000) “This paper focuses on the climatic transition between the Little Climatic Optimum (approximately AD 750–1300 or 1200-650 cal yr BP) and the Little Ice Age (approximately AD 1300–1800 or 650-150 cal yr BP) in the Pacific Islands. This transition was marked by rapid temperature and sea-level fall, and perhaps by sharply-increased precipitation associated with an increase in El Nino frequency. Examples from throughout the Pacific Islands demonstrate the possible and/or likely effects of sea-level fall at this time on inland horticulture through water-table fall; on coral reefs and lagoons through the emergence of reef surfaces and the consequent reduction of nearshore water circulation; on the emergence of reef islets and the conversion of tidal inlets to brackish lakes. The effects of such changes on human lifestyles are explored.” Patrick D. Nunn, New Zealand Geographer, Volume 56, Issue 1, pages 46–54, April 2000, DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-7939.2000.tb00559.x.

Holocene Sea-Level Record on Funafuti and Potential Impact of Global Warming on Central Pacific Atolls – Dickinson (1999) “Geomorphic features inherited from the mid-Holocene glacio-hydro-isostatic sea-level highstand that affected the central Pacific region influence the susceptibility of atoll islets to potentially enhanced wave erosion associated with rise in sea level from global warming. Shoreline morphology on multiple islets of Funafuti atoll in central Tuvalu reflects a relative mid-Holocene sea-level highstand 2.2–2.4 m above modern sea level. Typical islets are composed of unconsolidated post-mid-Holocene sediment resting disconformably on cemented coral rubble formed beneath now-emergent mid-Holocene reef flats. Exposed remnants of the lithified islet foundations serve as resistant buttresses protecting the flanks of atoll islets from wave attack. Islets lacking cemented mid-Holocene deposits as part of their internal structure are migratory sand cays with unstable shorelines. Any future sea-level rise ≥0.75 m, bringing high tide above the elevation of mid-Holocene low tide, might trigger enhanced wave erosion of stable atoll islets by overtopping the indurated mid-Holocene reef platforms. As analogous threshold relations are inferred for other central Pacific atolls, the risk of future inundation of island nations cannot be evaluated solely in terms of expected sea-level rise with respect to gross islet elevations.” William R. Dickinson, Quaternary Research, Volume 51, Issue 2, March 1999, Pages 124-132, doi:10.1006/qres.1998.2029.

Submarine topography of Maldivian atolls suggests a sea level of 130 metres below present at the last glacial maximum – Anderson (1998) “This present study reports the results of an echo sounding survey around four Maldivian atolls which suggests that local sea level was reduced to about 130 m below current levels during the last glacial maximum. At that time present-day atolls would have been exposed as large, steeply clifted islands.” R. C. Anderson, Coral Reefs, Volume 17, Number 4, 339-341, DOI: 10.1007/s003380050135.

Morphology and evolution of reef islands in the Maldives – Woodroffe (1992). From Mörner et al. (2004): “More recently, Woodroffe (1992) presented the first sea level curve for the Maldives. He claimed that the islands were predominantly formed by catch-up coral reef growth.” Woodroffe, C.D., 1992, Proc. 7th Int. Coral Reef Symp., Gaum 2, 1217– 1226.

Microatolls and recent sea level change on coral atolls – Woodroffe & McLean (1990) “MICROATOLLS are colonies of corals, commonly Porties, which are dead on top but living around their perimeter, and are found in intertidal environments on coral atolls. They can grow to several metres in diameter. Their upward growth is constrained by sea level through prolonged exposure at the lowest spring tides, and their dead upper surfaces have been limited by past sea levels. They act as natural recorders of sea level, which is of particular significance for coral atolls thought to be susceptible to inundation and erosion if sea level rises in response to global warming. X-radiographs of vertical slices through microatolls from the Maldives and Cocos (Keeling) Islands (Indian Ocean) and Kiribati (Pacific Ocean) record sea-level fluctuations over the past few decades. There is a high degree of reproducibility between adjacent corals, although on Cocos we noted geographical variation in the pattern of change around the atoll. The majority of microatolls sampled on these atolls record a slight fall in sea level over the past ten years.” Colin Woodroffe & Roger McLean, Nature 344, 531 – 534 (05 April 1990); doi:10.1038/344531a0.

Sea level rise: Some implications for Tuvalu – Lewis (1989) “Much current evidence suggests that global temperatures are slowly increasing. It is believed that this increase will be associated with a sea level rise. Tuvalu, approximately 1000 km north of Fiji in the South Pacific Ocean, is one of six countries, all of them island states, that could face total destruction when sea levels rise. If sea level rises occur anywhere near the extreme projections that have been made, we can write these nations off the map. (Pernetta, 1988). This paper examines possible implications to the people of Tuvalu.” James Lewis, The Environmentalist, Volume 9, Number 4, 269-275, DOI: 10.1007/BF02241827.

Back in 1991: “Response to Skeptics of Global Warming”

About 20 years ago, William Kellogg wrote an article called “Response to Skeptics of Global Warming” which was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in April, 1991 (full text here). Let us see what were the issues then and what was Kellogg’s response.

Introduction

By 1991, the attention towards the anthropogenic global warming had increased considerably. Kellogg descibes how the greenhouse theory had been well accepted long time ago. The theory also had been tested by observations and observations also showed that the concentration of greenhouse gases were increasing in the atmosphere.

First controversial topic Kellogg mentions is this:

First, there is good justification for the view that there are just too many interacting factors involved in the extraordinarily complex system that determines our climate, and that we can never hope to understand all those interactions.

This is the familiar issue about the climate sensitivity and its uncertainties. The skeptic view that arises from this, as Kellogg describes it, is that no action should be made before the uncertainties about climate sensitivity have been reduced.

Second controversy:

A second motivation for resisting the temptation to take such action is the notion, being advanced in some quarters with considerable vehemence, that a global warming will be beneficial to the world as a whole, and we should do nothing to slow it down.

I quite like the phrase ‘resisting the temptation to take action’. Kellogg also notes the role of the media:

In the past year or two the media have reported the statements of a small cadre of scientists who disagree with the conclusions of the majority of those who are doing research on the climate system.

I’m resisting the temptation to ask after each quote here if they sound familiar. With these introductory themes Kellogg starts to address the skeptic arguments:

Let us take a critical look at what the skeptics, or “environmental naysayers”, are saying. We will not try to deal with every one of the points raised by them, but the following will discuss the more interesting and widely quoted ones.

So it seems that Kellogg pioneered the field John Cook is now mastering. The part about the “naysayers” has to do with Kellogg having just quoted a comment by Senator Tim Wirth.

The arguments and the response

Kellogg first addresses the argument about the uncertainty in climate sensitivity:

Yet the five or so most advanced climate models, developed over a period of many years by top notch teams, have all come to essentially the same conclusion: The global average surface temperature would probably rise by about 2 to 5 K if the greenhouse gas concentration were maintained at double the pre-Industrial Revolution level, which for carbon dioxide was 270 to 280 parts per million (ppmv).

However, Kellogg also points out that the models have problems in their resolution and other problems, but also that modelers recognize those issues.

The question of the recent surface temperatures in 1991 was stated as: “Why have we not already seen the greenhouse warming”? Kellogg says that the answer to the question is not clear but that there has been a warming trend in the past 100 years but that there are natural variability and other factors that can contribute to the warming. Kellogg then points out that the warming from greenhouse gases is a global phenomenon and should therefore show up in global temperature – and it does (and did in 1991). By that time, the global temperature record had just been complemented with sea surface temperatures, so there were newly acquired confidence to the record. Let us take another “sound familiar?” quote:

[Global average temperature] rose quite fast from 1900 to 1940, then more or less leveled off until 1970, and since then the decade of the 1980s has witnessed five record breaking years…

Then about the skeptic view:

…some still express doubts that there has already been a long-term warming due to the greenhouse effect (Barnett and Schlesinger 1987; Seitz et al. 1990; Lindzen 1990; Ellsaesser 1990; Reifsnyder 1989). It is not significant, they sometimes say.

Kellogg then performs a statistical test on the global average temperature during the 20th century and concludes that the signal has a over 98 % probability to be real. But he also points out that due to natural variability and other factors the attribution of the warming to the greenhouse effect is problematic. He concludes on this issue:

So some of the more cautious policy makers who are listening to our debate can, at least for the time being, cite the IPCC report and argue that they have another ten years or so to wait before remedial action will be justified by “unequivocal” evidence.

The next issue is the United States temperature record. In 1991, the situation was that there were some papers showing that lower 48 states of United States had not warmed in last hundred years. Kellogg describes the media take on the issue:

The press has published this finding as evidence against the conclusion that the world had become warmer. What they often fail to add was that the U.S. (lower 48) occupies less than 5% of the area of the globe, so what happens in the U.S. can hardly be considered to apply to the world as a whole.

Kellogg the points out that it is actually only the eastern part of the United States that had experienced cooling. He also adds that the effect of urban heat island complicates things further so that there actually should be even more cooling showing in the United States temperature record. To this he says:

However, even if this bias exists at urban climate observing stations on land in other parts of the world, it can hardly have an influence on the COADS marine temperature record. Thus, the combined global surface temperature record, shown in Fig. 1, must be accurate enough to demonstrate a real warming trend, and the urban heat island effect on the land stations is considered to have less than a 0.05 K effect on the average (Folland et al. 1990).

Kellogg then addresses a claim by Lindzen that global warming has not begun because North Atlantic has been cooling slightly during about 50 years before 1991. Kellogg says this is just another regional result and that land areas have warmed faster which is no surprise because in ocean temperature there are other factors than radiation balance slowing the ocean warming. Kellogg the explains some model results relevant to the explanation of this ocean cooling.

Next claim to be addressed is the claim that satellite records show that there’s no warming. There had been a NASA report describing 10 years of satellite data which showed no clear trends. There had been some claims that this means there’s no global warming. Kellogg explains why this is not so:

The point is simply that one cannot demonstrate a 100-year trend by looking at a 10-year segment of the record, particularly when there is so much natural fluctuation in the record.

That is not all, there’s another problem with satellite records:

The oxygen emission measured by the satellite instrument actually comes from a region of the atmosphere extending from near the ground up to the tropopause, and it may sometimes include part of the lower stratosphere. … Thus, the temperature of a very deep portion of the atmosphere is being sampled, and the upper part of this layer is expected theoretically to show a cooling trend rather than warming. This fact suggests that such microwave observations may not be suitable for monitoring the year-to-year progression of the greenhouse effect, during which the warming should occur mainly in the lower part of the troposphere.

To the claim that the observed warming trend is due to sun, Kellogg says that while you can explain some of the fluctuations in climate records by solar and volcanic activity the explanation of longer term trends with them is problematic:

However, no long-term trend is evidenced unless the progressively important greenhouse effect is also introduced as a third-forcing function (Hansen et al. 1981; Gilliland 1982).

Kellogg then discusses some detailed issues regarding the solar forcing.

Next issue is the negative feedbacks in the climate system. Apparently, there had been some claims that there might be some strong negative feedbacks which are not included in the climate models. That would then lower the climate sensitivity. Lindzen’s iris hypothesis is mentioned specifically. Kellogg makes some objections to the hypothesis including some observations showing that water vapor in the troposphere has increased which is against Lindzen’s hypothesis. Kellogg concludes:

It thus appears that the critics of currently accepted assessments of climate change are going to have to continue their search for some powerful and credible (but hitherto overlooked) negative feedback mechanism that will greatly reduce the apparent sensitivity of the earth’s climate system to an increase of the greenhouse gases.

The cloudiness problem is discussed next. The clouds are a strong factor in climate and their modelling is difficult because of several factors including the coarse resolution of the models. Kellogg points out some observations:

Over the past 30 years the tropics have gotten warmer, especially over the oceans (Flohn and Kapala 1989), and in this period high clouds in the tropics (Ci and Cb) have increased, while lower and middle clouds (Cu and St) have decreased (London et al. 1991). Both of these trends in cloudiness contribute to a positive feedback, or warming.

Kellogg then describes some model results on cloudiness. There is a big spread in their results, so it seems that models need to be improved relating to the clouds, but observational evidence seems to be pointing to positive rather than negative feedback.

Then Kellogg moves on to the claim that climate change will be beneficial. This was of course rather controversial subject back then (and still is to some extent) so Kellogg points out that the majority of climate scientists see the climate change effects to be non-beneficial on the whole.

Looking back on Kellogg’s article now makes me think that it could very well have been written this year on some of its parts. Science has moved ahead on many issues discussed. Many of them were non-issues already in 1991, as Kellogg shows. Yet you see all of the claims discussed here presented even today, unchanged.

References

Kellogg, William W., 1991: Response to Skeptics of Global Warming. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72, 499–511. [abstract, full text]

Papers on media and climate change

This is a list of papers on the media and climate change. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

UPDATE (February 2, 2011): “Additional papers” section added including lot of papers. Thanks to Alon for providing a huge list of papers, see the comment section.

Self-censorship and science: a geographical review of media coverage of climate tipping points – Antilla (2010) “Public perception of global climate change is strongly influenced by media constructions of scientific knowledge. This paper explores recent scientific findings and the press coverage thereof and is based on a content analysis of two years of global reporting on climate related positive feedback mechanisms (climate system responses to global warming which lead to further warming). Results indicate that non-US news organizations, especially in the UK, are at the forefront of the discourse on climate feedback loops. Poor US press coverage on such climate thresholds might be understood not only as self-censorship, but as a “false negative” error.” Liisa Antilla, Public Understanding of Science March 2010 vol. 19 no. 2 240-256, doi: 10.1177/0963662508094099. [Full text]

Media, Politics and Climate Change: Towards a New Research Agenda – Anderson (2009) “Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, and the media have been demonstrated to play a key role in shaping public perceptions and policy agendas. Journalists are faced with multiple challenges in covering this complex field. This article provides an overview of existing research on the media framing of climate change, highlighting major research themes and assessing future potential research developments. It argues that analysis of the reporting of climate science must be placed in the wider context of the growing concentration and globalization of news media ownership, and an increasingly ‘promotional culture’, highlighted by the rapid rise of the public relations industry in recent years and claims-makers who employ increasingly sophisticated media strategies. Future research will need to examine in-depth the targeting of media by a range of actors, as well as unravel complex information flows across countries as media increasingly converge.” [Full text]

Global warming—global responsibility? Media frames of collective action and scientific certainty – Olausson (2009) “The increasing interconnectedness of the world that characterizes the process of globalization compels us to interlink local, national, and transnational phenomena, such as environmental risks, in both journalistic and academic discourse. Among environmental risks of global scope climate change is probably the one receiving the most attention at present, not least in the media. Globalization notwithstanding, national media are still dominated by a national logic in the presentation of news, and tensions arise between this media logic and the transnational character of environmental risks that call for a collective responsibility transcending the borders of the nation-states. This article presents results from studies of the construction of global climate change in three Swedish newspapers. It discusses the media’s attribution of responsibility for collective action along an axis ranging from local to national to transnational, and highlights the media’s reluctance to display any kind of scientific uncertainty that would undermine the demand for collective action. The results underline the media’s responsiveness to the political setting in which they operate and the growing relevance of the transnational political realm of Europe for the construction of news frames on global climate change in European national media.” [Full text]

Ideological cultures and media discourses on scientific knowledge: re-reading news on climate change – Carvalho (2007) “Focusing on the representation of climate change in the British “quality press,” this article argues that the discursive (re)construction of scientific claims in the media is strongly entangled with ideological standpoints. Understood here as a set of ideas and values that legitimate a program of action vis-à-vis a given social and political order, ideology works as a powerful selection device in deciding what is scientific news, i.e. what the relevant “facts” are, and who are the authorized “agents of definition” of science matters. The representation of scientific knowledge has important implications for evaluating political programs and assessing the responsibility of both governments and the public in addressing climate change.” Anabela Carvalho, Public Understanding of Science April 2007 vol. 16 no. 2 223-243, doi: 10.1177/0963662506066775. [Full text]

Flogging a dead norm? Newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006 – Boykoff (2007) “The journalistic norm of ‘balanced’ reporting (giving roughly equal coverage to both sides in any significant dispute) is recognised as both useful and problematic in communicating emerging scientific consensus on human attribution for global climate change. Analysis of the practice of this norm in United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) newspaper coverage of climate science between 2003 and 2006 shows a significant divergence from scientific consensus in the US in 2003–4, followed by a decline in 2005–6, but no major divergence in UK reporting. These findings inform ongoing considerations about the spatially-differentiated media terms and conditions through which current and future climate policy is negotiated and implemented.” [Full text]

From convergence to contention: United States mass media representations of anthropogenic climate change science – Boykoff (2007) “This article focuses on connected factors that contribute to United States (US) media reporting on anthropogenic climate change science. It analyses US newspapers and television news from 1995 to 2006 as well as semi-structured interviews with climate scientists and environmental journalists. Through analyses of power and scale, the paper brings together issues of framing in journalism to questions of certainty/uncertainty in climate science. The paper examines how and why US media have represented conflict and contentions, despite an emergent consensus view regarding anthropogenic climate science.” Maxwell T Boykoff, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, Volume 32, Issue 4, pages 477–489, October 2007, DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-5661.2007.00270.x. [Full text]

A Tale of Two Fears: Exploring Media Depictions of Nuclear Power and Global Warming – Palfreman (2006) “Advanced technologies like nuclear power and looming environmental threats such as global climate change present major policy challenge for modern cultures. Public policy about such crucial and complex issues depends on public attitudes, which, in turn, tend to be strongly affected by mass media coverage. How “well” has the mass media portrayed these two evolving risk stories? Employing perspectives from both journalism and social science, this article will first review the history of mass media coverage of each topic, then analyze their differences.” Jon Palfreman, Review of Policy Research, Volume 23, Issue 1, pages 23–43, January 2006, DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-1338.2006.00184.x.

Climate of scepticism: US newspaper coverage of the science of climate change – Antilla (2005) “This two-part study integrates a quantitative review of one year of US newspaper coverage of climate science with a qualitative, comparative analysis of media-created themes and frames using a social constructivist approach. In addition to an examination of newspaper articles, this paper includes a reflexive comparison with attendant wire stories and scientific texts. Special attention is given to articles constructed with and framed by rhetoric emphasising uncertainty, controversy, and climate scepticism.” Liisa Antilla, Global Environmental Change Part A, Volume 15, Issue 4, December 2005, Pages 338-352, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.003. [Full text]

Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in U.K. Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985-2003 – Carvalho & Burgess (2005) “This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985-2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985-1990, 1991-1996, 1997-2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.” Carvalho, Anabela; Burgess, Jacquelin, Risk Analysis, Volume 25, Number 6, December 2005 , pp. 1457-1469(13), DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00692.x. [Full text]

Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press – Boykoff & Boykoff (2004) “This paper demonstrates that US prestige-press coverage of global warming from 1988 to 2002 has contributed to a significant divergence of popular discourse from scientific discourse. This failed discursive translation results from an accumulation of tactical media responses and practices guided by widely accepted journalistic norms. Through content analysis of US prestige press—meaning the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal—this paper focuses on the norm of balanced reporting, and shows that the prestige press’s adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming and resultant action.” Maxwell T. Boykoff and Jules M. Boykoff, Global Environmental Change Part A, Volume 14, Issue 2, July 2004, Pages 125-136, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001. [Full text]

Testing Public (Un)Certainty of Science Media Representations of Global Warming – Corbett & Dufree (2004) “This exploratory study examines whether readers’assessments of the certainty of scientific findings depend on characteristics of news stories. An experimental design tested whether adding controversy and/or context to a news story about global warming influenced readers’ perceptions of its certainty. Respondents (N = 209) were randomly assigned to read one treatment and answer a questionnaire. Overall, there was a significant difference in readers’assessment of the certainty of global warming across treatments (F = 12.59, p = .00). The context treatment produced the highest level of certainty about global warming and differed significantly from the control treatment (with neither context nor controversy) and from the controversy treatment. Control and controversy treatments resulted in the lowest levels of certainty. There was an interaction effect between treatment and environmental ideology upon certainty (F = 1.64, p = .03) and a correlation between environmental ideology and prior certainty about global warming (r = .35, p = .01), suggesting that those with proenvironmental ideology were less swayed by the treatments.” Julia B. Corbett and Jessica L. Durfee, Science Communication December 2004 vol. 26 no. 2 129-151, doi: 10.1177/1075547004270234. [Full text]

Media’s social construction of environmental issues: focus on global warming – a comparative study – Dispensa & Brulle (2003) “Global warming has been a well recognized environmental issue in the United States for the past ten years, even though scientists had identified it as a potential problem years before in 1896. We find debate about the issue in the United States media coverage while controversy among the majority of scientists is rare. The role that media plays in constructing the norms and ideas in society is researched to understand how they socially construct global warming and other environmental issues. To identify if the U.S. Media presents a biased view of global warming, the following are discussed (1) the theoretical perspective of media and the environment; (2) scientific overview and history of global warming; (3) media coverage of global warming, and (4) research findings from the content analysis of three countries’ newspaper articles and two international scientific journals produced in 2000 with comparison of these countries economies, industries, and environments. In conclusion, our research demonstrates that the U.S. with differing industries, predominantly dominated by the fossil fuel industry, in comparison to New Zealand and Finland has a significant impact on the media coverage of global warming. The U.S’s media states that global warming is controversial and theoretical, yet the other two countries portray the story that is commonly found in the international scientific journals. Therefore, media, acting as one driving force, is providing citizens with piecemeal information that is necessary to assess the social, environmental and political conditions of the country and world.” Jaclyn Marisa Dispensa, Robert J. Brulle, 2003, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, Vol. 23 Iss: 10, pp.74 – 105. [Full text]

How Science Contributes to Environmental Reporting in British Newspapers: A Case Study of the Reporting of Global Warming and Climate Change – Taylor & Nathan (2002) “This article examines the role of science in environmental reporting in a number of British newspapers. The findings indicated that in reporting about global warming and climate change, the views of scientists were used to give legitimacy to the content of articles. However, in both the tabloids and broadsheets, there was little evidence provided, in the form of data, to substantiate the claims being made. Furthermore, uncertainties about global warming were not explored effectively. Newspaper reports tended to focus on the potential consequences of global warming, but made little attempt to address the suspected causes that would inevitably involve criticism of highly consumptive lifestyles in the west.” Neil Taylor and Subhashni Nathan, The Environmentalist, Volume 22, Number 4, 325-331, DOI: 10.1023/A:1020762813548.

Heat and hot air: influence of local temperature on journalists’ coverage of global warming – Shanahan & Good (2000) “This study examines relationships between local temperature in two cities (New York and Washington, D.C.) and coverage of global climate change in their local newspapers (the Times and the Post). The results show that there are some relationships between local temperature and frequency of attention to climate issues, such that journalists are more likely to discuss climate during unusually warm periods. However, support for the hypotheses was only partial; the Post did not show confirming relationships. The discussion focuses on implications for public understanding of climate change.” James Shanahan, Jennifer Good, Public Understanding of Science July 2000 vol. 9 no. 3 285-295, doi: 10.1088/0963-6625/9/3/305.

Telling Stories About Global Climate Change – McComas & Shanahan (1999) “A theory of cyclical patterns in media coverage of environmental issues must account for more than intrinsic qualities of the issues themselves: Narrative factors must be considered. A content analysis of The New York Times and The Washington Post stories from 1980 to 1995 shows how media construct narratives about global warming and how these narratives may influence attention cycles. Empirically, the frequency of newspaper coverage shows cyclical attention to global warming. The content analysis further reveals that implied danger and consequences of global warming gain more prominence on the upswing of newspaper attention, whereas controversy among scientists receives greater attention in the maintenance phase. The economics of dealing with global warming also receive greater attention during the maintenance and downside of the attention cycle. The discussion offers a narrative explanation and suggests the outcome of the “master story” of global climate change may discourage future attention to global warming.” Katherine McComas, James Shanahan, Communication Research February 1999 vol. 26 no. 1 30-57, doi: 10.1177/009365099026001003.

Global Environmental Change in the News: 1987-90 vs 1992-6 – Mazur (1998) “Hazards to the global environment, including climate change, ozone depletion, rainforest destruction, & species extinction, became important problems on the US agenda of risks after extensive media coverage, 1987-1990, & were subsequently taken up by other nations, at least until news coverage fell after 199O. Shown here is why these particular hazards, which had all been recognized by experts for years, suddenly became important news stories, & why they failed to attract much media attention during the period 1992-1996, a time when global warming & other problems intensified, & the White House was occupied by an administration ostensibly sympathetic to environmental concerns.” Mazur, A., International Sociology. Vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 457-472. 1998.

Additional papers

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NODC ocean heat content

For some years there has been claims that oceans have cooled after 2003. There has been some flaws identified from the measuring equipment. It has been shown that those flaws caused the original appearance of cooling so the latest scientific research doesn’t seem to give support to the claims of cooling in recent years. The widely used Argo-network is under corrections currently and the situation should be more clear in near future. However, the claims of cooling still continue. I’ll take a brief look at the issue.

The cooling that went away

By now this is quite well known story, so I’ll descibe it just briefly. In 2006, Lyman et al. reported that they had found cooling from the world’s oceans after 2003. This of course generated claims among climate change deniers that global warming has stopped even though the authors of the study didn’t thought so. In 2007, Josh Willis, one of the authors of the original study found out that the cooling they had found didn’t seem to be real. There were problems with some Argo floats and expendable bathythermographs (XBT’s) which both were causing an apparent cooling effect to the data. When the bad Argo floats were excluded and XBT-problem was corrected for, the cooling was no more. [whole story here]

There is also a study from von Schuckmann et al. (2009) suggesting that oceans have actually warmed after 2003 (or 2004 as the current round of claims seem to be). More references on ocean temperatures and on this ocean heat content problem are given in the end of this article.

NODC – the go to place for recent claims

Despite the situation described above, the claims of ocean cooling continue. In some online discussions and blogs I have seen NOAA’s National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) being used as the source showing that oceans have cooled after 2003 or 2004. As it’s NOAA website, it has authority and therefore seems to be credible reference for backing up the claims. I’m not going to argue that NODC is not credible resource but I’m going to show why it’s not currently the best place to study the issue.

The data in NODC is from their world ocean database, and it is described here. The chapter 6.6 there discusses data problems. Let’s see what it says about the problem Willis identified:

A large number of SOLO floats with FSI CTD packages deployed in the Atlantic Ocean between 2003 and 2006 were found to have a pressure offset problem due to a software error. This error caused pressures to be paired with the temperature measurements from the next lower level, creating the illusion of a cooling ocean. Once the problem was found, a list of such floats was compiled. An effort was made to correct the problem, successful in some floats, not in others. All data from all these problem floats are included in WOD09.

(Bolding mine.) So, this problem causes apparent cooling and the data from problem floats is included. Another problem is also described there:

More recently, in early 2009, a problem with the Druck pressure sensor has been found (J. Willis and D. Roemmich, minutes of 10th meeting of International Argo Steering Team). This problem causes pressure sensor drift after deployment. Deployment of new floats was halted temporarily, until the pressure sensor design could be altered. Already deployed APEX floats are being monitored closely for sensor drift. The full extent of this problem is not yet apparent.

It seems that there are even more problematic Argo floats included in the NODC data. For this one it is not clear to which direction the drift effects.

So clearly, for the last few years the NODC data might not be the most trustworthy. For Argo data, it is best to consult Argo website. There is a section called “>”Advice on Pressure Biases in the Argo Data Set” (UPDATE: direct linking to the page doesn’t seem to work but it can be found through “Argo Information Centre” – additionally, here’s an alternative link from “Argo data management” website giving the same text) that says:

A part of the global Argo data are subject to biases in reported pressures. These biases are usually less than 5db, but occasionally can be larger (> 20db). These bias errors are being steadily removed by the reprocessing of historical Argo data. We expect that by the end of 2010 these errors will be removed from the global Argo data set in both the delayed-mode and real-time data.

So, it seems that we’ll find out more about the ocean temperatures of last few years in next year when they have finished the corrections. NODC will undoubtedly update their data too then. Meanwhile I expect to see lot more claims about oceans cooling after this year or that year, and I doubt it will end even if they would publish corrected Argo dataset showing warming from 2003.

References

Lyman, J. M., J. K. Willis, and G. C. Johnson (2006), Recent cooling of the upper ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18604, doi:10.1029/2006GL027033. [abstract, full text]

von Schuckmann, K., F. Gaillard, and P.-Y. Le Traon (2009), Global hydrographic variability patterns during 2003–2008, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C09007, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237. [abstract, full text]

Additional information

- More information on ocean heat content problems after 2003 (see especially Willis et al., 2008 and Levitus et al., 2009) and ocean temperatures in general can be found from my list of papers on ocean temperature.
- Does ocean cooling prove global warming has ended? – John Cook, Skeptical Science
- Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don’t beat around the bush, Roger – gpwayne, Skeptical Science

Papers on oil companies and climate change

This is a list of papers on the oil companies and climate change. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

The oxymoron of ‘sustainable oil production’: the case of the Norwegian oil industry – Ihlen (2009) “Many oil companies have adopted the concept of sustainable development and claim that their production is sustainable. This might seem odd given that the oil industry depletes a non-renewable resource and that oil production also contributes to climate change. This paper analyses how the industry attempts to resolve this paradox, using the Norwegian oil industry as a case study. It is demonstrated how four rhetorical operations are used. By employing the topic of definition, the industry argues that it is sustainable because it (1) strives to cut its emissions and (2) manages oil resources with a long-term perspective until such time as technology will provide solutions. The industry then uses the topic of comparison to (3) discredit other energy sources as ‘unrealistic’ options and (4) compare the production in Norway with more polluting oil production elsewhere. Understanding this type of rhetoric is crucial for validating or criticizing the sustainability claims of the industry.”

Oil Companies and Climate Change: Inconsistencies between Strategy Formulation and Implementation? – Sæverud & Skjærseth (2007) “This article examines major oil companies in terms of climate strategies and their implementation. More specifıcally, it takes a critical look at Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil, and the relationship between rhetoric and action regarding investments in climate-friendly activities. Empirical evidence indicates a generally high degree of consistency between what these companies say and what they do, but interesting differences are also found: ExxonMobil has done somewhat more than its climate strategy formulations would suggest; Shell has done somewhat less; whereas BP’s activities are mainly in line with its statements. Factors at three levels contribute to explaining these differences: (1) the company level, 2) the political framework conditions in the various regions where the companies operate, 3) international climate cooperation. The fındings and explanations, although restricted to the three oil companies with regard to climate change, provide insight into the relationship between corporate strategies and implementation more generally. They offer understanding and analytical categories for assessing how well and why such multinational entities put into practice stated objectives.” [Full text]

Strategic Responses to Global Climate Change: Conflicting Pressures on Multinationals in the Oil Industry – Levy & Kolk (2002) “MNCs are increasingly facing global environmental issues demanding coordinated market and non-market strategic responses. The home country institutional context and individual company histories can create divergent pressures on strategy for MNCs based in different countries; however, the location of MNCs in global industries and their participation in ‘global issues arenas’ create issue-level fields within which strategic convergence might also be expected. This paper analyzes the responses of oil MNCs to climate change and finds that local context influenced initial corporate reactions, but that convergent pressures predominate as the issue matures.” [Full text]

The oil industry and climate change: strategies and ethical dilemmas – van den Hove et al. (2002) “This paper explores the different climate change strategies chosen by three major multinational oil corporations: ExxonMobil, TotalFinaElf and BP Amoco. They are referred to, as the `fight against emission constraints,’ `wait and see,’ and `proactive’ strategies, respectively. The justifications given to support these strategies are identified. They cover the business, scientific, political, economic, technological and social dimensions. In a business ethics framework, the issue of climate change brings forth an ethical dilemma for the oil industry, in the form of a tension between profits and CO₂ emissions. The strategies are analysed as three attitudes towards this dilemma: (i) placing priority on the business consequences while weakening the perception that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change; (ii) avoiding responsibility; and (iii) placing priority on the need for a modification of the business process while limiting the negative effect in terms of business consequences. In conclusion, we propose that beyond the ethical issues proper to climate change itself, additional ethical issues are raised if society at large is instrumentalised by an industry in its search for profit. Publicly gauging and valorising the ethical commitment of a corporation appear as ways of inducing more collaborative and proactive attitudes by business actors.”

Winds of Change: Corporate Strategy, Climate change and Oil Multinationals – Kolk & Levy (2001) “Behind pessimistic expectations regarding the future of an international climate treaty, substantial changes can be observed in company positions. Multinationals in the oil and car industries are increasingly moving toward support for the Kyoto Protocol, and take measures to address climate change. This article analyses developments in the oil industry over the past few years, observing considerable shifts in corporate climate strategies. It compares British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, Texaco and ExxonMobil, of which currently only the latter strongly opposes a climate treaty. BP and Shell have moved decisively toward supporting emission reductions and investing in renewable energy, while Texaco has begun to move in a similar direction. Divergent behaviour can be explained in terms of company-specific factors, particularly corporate histories of profitability and location, market assessments, degrees of centralization and the presence of climate scientists. Ongoing stakeholder pressures, which focus on ‘first-mover’ BP, are evaluated.” [Full text]

Climate Change and the Oil Industry: Common Problems, Different Strategies – Skjærseth & Skodvin (2001) “This analysis shows that there are striking differences in the ways European-based and US-based oil companies have responded to the climate issue—here represented by the Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Exxon Mobil—and that one major source of explanation for this difference is found in the national political contexts of the companies’ home-base countries. The importance of political context implies that the conditions for changing oil companies’ climate strategies are likely to be located in the political context rather than in the companies themselves.” [Full text]

Beauty and the beast? BP’s and Exxon’s positions on global climate change – Rowlands (2000) “The author attempts first to determine whether there are significant differences among the major oil companies’ positions on global climate change, and second to discover the reasons behind any differences found. The investigation focuses upon Exxon and BP Amoco—two of the world’s largest oil companies. The differences between the two, with regard to their attitudes and actions on global climate change, are striking: whereas Exxon is continuing to act as one might initially expect (resisting proactive policies on climate change), BP Amoco appears more willing to contemplate a world that uses less oil. Attempts to explain these differences focus upon the companies’ respective interests, their management structures, and their nationalities. It appears that all factors are important, at least to some degree. The paper concludes with a discussion of research limitations and suggestions.”

Closely related

Papers on AGW denialism.

Go to Hot Topic and…

…give your support to John Abraham.

I think Monckton is going for the good old there’s-no-such-thing-as-bad-publicity…