AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research from last week 47/2011

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 28, 2011

Here is the new research published last week. I’m not including everything that was published but just some papers that got my attention. Those who follow my Facebook page (and/or Twitter) have already seen most of these, as I post these there as soon as they are published. Here, I’ll just put them out in one batch. Sometimes I might also point out to some other news as well, but the new research will be the focus here. Here’s the archive for the news of previous weeks. By the way, if this sort of thing interests you, be sure to check out A Few Things Illconsidered, they have a weekly posting containing lots of links to new research and other climate related news.

Springer free access campaign

Springer once again has a campaign where some journals are free access to everyone until December 31. Included to the campaign are Springer’s climate science journals Climatic Change and Climate Dynamics. Some other interesting journals on related issues are also included.

Climate change also has an effect to California beach boys and girls

Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches – Pendleton et al. (2011) “Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand.” Linwood Pendleton, Philip King, Craig Mohn, D. G. Webster, Ryan Vaughn and Peter N. Adams, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0309-0.

Sea level rise brings increased coastal flooding to California threatening lot of people and property

Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise – Heberger et al. (2011) “California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise.” Matthew Heberger, Heather Cooley, Pablo Herrera, Peter H. Gleick and Eli Moore, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0308-1.

Precisely dated European climate record 120–60 ka from speleothems

NALPS: a precisely dated European climate record 120–60 ka – Boch et al. (2011) “Accurate and precise chronologies are essential in understanding the rapid and recurrent climate variations of the Last Glacial – known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events – found in the Greenland ice cores and other climate archives. The existing chronological uncertainties during the Last Glacial, however, are still large. Radiometric age data and stable isotopic signals from speleothems are promising to improve the absolute chronology. We present a record of several precisely dated stalagmites from caves located at the northern rim of the Alps (NALPS), a region that favours comparison with the climate in Greenland. The record covers most of the interval from 120 to 60 ka at an average temporal resolution of 2 to 22 yr and 2σ-age uncertainties of ca. 200 to 500 yr. The rapid and large oxygen isotope shifts of 1 to 4.5‰ occurred within decades to centuries and strongly mimic the Greenland D-O pattern. Compared to the updated Greenland ice-core timescale (GICC05modelext) the NALPS record confirms the timing of rapid warming and cooling transitions between 118 and 106 ka, but suggests younger ages for D-O events between 106 and 60 ka. As an exception, the timing of the rapid transitions into and out of the stadial following GI 22 is earlier in NALPS than in the Greenland ice-core timescale. In addition, there is a discrepancy in the duration of this stadial between the ice-core and the stalagmite chronology (ca. 2900 vs. 3650 yr). The short-lived D-O events 18 and 18.1 are not recorded in NALPS, provoking questions with regard to the nature and the regional expression of these events. NALPS resolves recurrent short-lived climate changes within the cold Greenland stadial and warm interstadial successions, i.e. abrupt warming events preceding GI 21 and 23 (precursor-type events) and at the end of GI 21 and 25 (rebound-type events), as well as intermittent cooling events during GI 22 and 24. Such superimposed events have not yet been documented outside Greenland.” Boch, R., Cheng, H., Spötl, C., Edwards, R. L., Wang, X., and Häuselmann, Ph., Clim. Past, 7, 1247-1259, doi:10.5194/cp-7-1247-2011, 2011. [Full text]

More accurate forest radiative transfer models by improving pine shoot albedo estimates

A note on upscaling coniferous needle spectra to shoot spectral albedo – Rautiainen et al. (2011) “Mutual shading of needles in coniferous shoots and small-scale variations in needle area density both within and between shoots violate conventional assumptions used in the definition of the elementary volume in radiative transfer models. In this paper, we test the hypothesis if it is possible to scale needle spectral albedo up to shoot spectral albedo using only one structural parameter: the spherically averaged shoot silhouette to total area ratio (STAR). To test the hypothesis, we measured both structural and spectral properties of ten Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) shoots and their needles. Our results indicate that it is possible to upscale from needle to shoot spectral albedo using STAR. The upscaling model performed best in the VIS and SWIR regions, and for shoots with high STAR values. As STAR is linearly related to photon recollision probability, it is also possible to apply the upscaling model as integral part of radiative transfer models.” Miina Rautiainen, Matti Mõttus, Lucia Yáñez-Rausell, Lucie Homolová, Zbyněk Malenovský, Michael E. Schaepman, Remote Sensing of Environment, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.10.019.

North American boreal forests seem to be browning

Browning boreal forests of western North America – Verbyla (2011) Abstract page contains the whole article without abstract – here’s first paragraph: “The GIMMS NDVI dataset has been widely used to document a ‘browning trend’ in North American boreal forests (Goetz et al 2005, Bunn et al 2007, Beck and Goetz 2011). However, there has been speculation (Alcaraz-Segura et al 2010) that this trend may be an artifact due to processing algorithms rather than an actual decline in vegetation activity. This conclusion was based primarily on the fact that GIMMS NDVI did not capture NDVI recovery within most burned areas in boreal Canada, while another dataset consistently showed post-fire increasing NDVI. I believe that the results of Alcaraz-Segura et al (2010) were due simply to different pixel sizes of the two datasets (64 km2 versus 1 km2 pixels). Similar results have been obtained from tundra areas greening in Alaska, with the results simply due to these pixel size differences (Stow et al 2007). Furthermore, recent studies have documented boreal browning trends based on NDVI from other sensors. Beck and Goetz (2011) have shown the boreal browning trend derived from a different sensor (MODIS) to be very similar to the boreal browning trend derived from the GIMMS NDVI dataset for the circumpolar boreal region. Parent and Verbyla (2010) found similar declining NDVI patterns based on NDVI from Landsat sensors and GIMMS NDVI in boreal Alaska. Zhang et al (2008) found a similar ‘browning trend’ in boreal North America based on a production efficiency model using an integrated AVHRR and MODIS dataset.” David Verbyla 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041003 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/041003. [Full text]

Most recent warm event of Atlantic water is anomalous

Interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and adjacent seas – Carton et al. (2011) “Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950–2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multiyear warm events where temperature anomalies at 100 m depth exceed 0.4°C, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3–4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989–July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for 4 years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.” Carton, J. A., G. A. Chepurin, J. Reagan, and S. Häkkinen (2011), J. Geophys. Res., 116, C11035, doi:10.1029/2011JC007102.

Mediterranean brown trout might become almost extinct by 2100

Global warming threatens the persistence of Mediterranean brown trout – Almodóvar et al. (2011) “Current climate change exacerbates the environmental restrictions on temperate species inhabiting low latitude edges of their geographical ranges. We examined how temperature variations due to current and future climate change are likely to affect populations’ persistence of stream-dwelling brown trout Salmo trutta at the vulnerable southern periphery of its range. Analysis of 33 years of air temperature data (1975-2007) by time-series models indicated a significant upward trend and a pronounced shift in air temperature around 1986-1987. This warming is associated with an ongoing population decline of brown trout, most likely caused by a loss of suitable thermal habitat in lower latitudes since the 1980s. Population decrease may not be attributed to physical habitat modification or angler pressure, since carrying capacity remained stable and populations were not overexploited. We developed regional temperature models, which predicted that unsuitable thermal habitat for brown trout increased by 93% when comparing climate conditions between 1975-1986 and 1993-2004. Predictions from climate envelope models showed that current climate change may be rendering unsuitable 12% of suitable thermal habitat each decade, resulting in an overall population decrease in the lower reaches of around 6% per year. Furthermore, brown trout catches markedly decreased 20% per year. Projections of thermal habitat loss under the ecologically friendly B2 SRES scenario showed that brown trout may lose half of their current suitable habitat within the study area by 2040 and become almost extinct by 2100. In parallel to the upstream movement of brown trout thermal habitat, warm water species are increasing their relative abundance in salmonid waters. Empirical evidence was provided of how current climate change threatens some of the most healthy native brown trout populations in Southern Europe and how forthcoming climate change is expected to further decrease the conservation status of the species.” Ana Almodóvar, Graciela G. Nicola, Daniel Ayllón, Benigno Elvira, Global Change Biology, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02608.x.

Analysis of Argo network

How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data? – von Schuckmann & Le Traon (2011) “Argo deployments began in the year 2000 and by November 2007, the array reached its initial goal of 3000 floats operating worldwide. In this study, Argo temperature and salinity measurements during the period 2005 to 2010 are used to estimate Global Ocean Indicators (GOIs) such as global ocean heat content (GOHC), global ocean freshwater content (GOFC) and global steric sea level (GSSL). We developed a method based on a simple box averaging scheme using a weighted mean. Uncertainties due to data processing methods and choice of climatology are estimated. This method is easy to implement and run and can be used to set up a routine monitoring of the global ocean. Over the six year time period, trends of GOHC and GSSL are 0.54 ± 0.1 W m−2 and 0.75 ± 0.15 mm yr−1, respectively. The trend of GOFC is barely significant. Results show that there is significant interannual variability at global scale, especially for GOFC. Annual mean GOIs from the today’s Argo sampling can be derived with an accuracy of ±0.11 cm for GSSL, ±0.22 × 108 J m−2 for GOHC, and ±700 km3 for GOFC. Long-term trends (15 yr) of GOIs based on the complete Argo sampling for the upper 1500 m depth can be estimated with an accuracy of ±0.04 mm yr−1 for GSSL, ±0.02 W m−2 for GOHC and ±20 km3 yr−1 for GOFC – under the assumption that no systematic errors remain in the observing system.” von Schuckmann, K. and Le Traon, P.-Y.: How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data?, Ocean Sci., 7, 783-791, doi:10.5194/os-7-783-2011, 2011. [Full text]

Melt season is getting longer in Svalbard

Estimation of trends in extreme melt-season duration at Svalbard – Kvamstø et al. (2011) “A time series of monthly mean surface temperatures taken at Svalbard airport, Spitzbergen, for the period 1912–2010 was examined for changes in melt-season length. The annual melt-season length was constructed from daily temperature estimates based on the monthly data using smoothing splines. We argue that the changes in annual melt-season length are linked to variability in regional sea surface temperatures, the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A regression model for the melt-season length with these three parameters as predictors, explained about 40% of the observed variance. The annual mean melt season for the period from 1912 to 2010 was estimated to be 108 days, and the linear trend was 0.17 days/year. The risk of having positive extremes in the melt season increased with increasing Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the regional sea surface temperatures. On the basis of our study of past observations, the 100-year return length of the melt season at Svalbard was predicted to change from the current 95% confidence interval of 131 (108, 138) days to 175 (109, 242) days with 1 °C warming of both regional sea surface temperature and the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature.” Nils Gunnar Kvamstø, Dag Johan Steinskog, David B. Stephenson, Dag Bjarne Tjøstheim, International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3395.


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