AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New climate papers, part 1 – reality of climate change

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 23, 2013

In March I published a batch of early 2013 papers on climate related issues. It’s time to give another update. Since March, there has been lot of new papers, so I’ll divide them to 5 posts. There are 734 papers altogether, so these posts should keep you busy for a while:

Part 1. Reality of climate change (temperature, other climate parameters, climate extremes, future projections).
Part 2. Impacts of climate change (cryosphere, oceans, mankind, ecosystems, other issues).
Part 3. Mitigation and adaptation (greenhouse gases, mankind reaction, energy, technologies and products, adaptation, general mitigation).
Part 4. Past climate changes.
Part 5. Other papers (feedbacks and forcings, general climate science, other issues).

Part 1 contains papers that deal with reality of climate change in the climate system (albeit in a quite broad sense). There are 145 papers in part 1. Subsections are temperature (58 papers), other climate parameters (30 papers), climate extremes (41 papers), and future projections (16 papers; this section also includes some model development papers).

See About New research from last week series for some information of my new research stream (the post discusses weekly posts which I don’t do anymore, but the parts about what papers get included are valid also currently).


Decadal evolution of ocean thermal anomalies in the North Atlantic

Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions (open access + video abstract)

Climate change: changing means and changing extremes

Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming

Temperature trends & water vapor and ozone in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for OHC estimates and climate change

Climate change trend in China, warming since 1960s, accelerating since 1980s

General increase in soil temperatures in Büyük Menderes Basin, Turkey

Urbanization impact on temperature change in China with emphasis on land cover change and human activity

Comparing historical and modern methods of sea surface temperature measurement – Part 1 (open access)

Comparing historical and modern methods of sea surface temperature measurement – Part 2 (open access)

Crowdsourcing urban air temperatures from smartphone battery temperatures

Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013

U.S. station temperature trends: significant cooling in SE and significant warming elsewhere

Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models

Climate of Macaronesia is warming faster than global climate

Increasing temperature trend through last century cannot be explained by long-range memory

Trend detection in surface air temperature in Ontario & Quebec finds significant positive trends

Transient 21st century changes in daily-scale temperature extremes in the United States

Greenland Sea surface temperature change and accompanying changes in northern hemispheric climate

Changes in Temperature Records and Extremes: Are They Statistically Significant?

Large gaps in the monthly temperature observations for Uganda

Anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of extreme temperature changes

Remarkable and highly significant increase in very warm nights during 1986–2008 in Arabian Peninsula

Ed Hawkins & Phil Jones: On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar (open access)

The effects of urbanization on temperature trends in northwestern China

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico

Climate variability analysis of winter temperatures in the central Mediterranean since 1500 AD

Vertical amplification of warming in tropical troposphere is exaggerated in models

Rise in air temperature in Saudi Arabia is not likely due to urbanization changes

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century

Urban heat islands and heat waves interact to create larger effect than their sum

Temperature extremes (hot and cold) in Saudi Arabia have increased significantly

On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies (open access)

Temporal and spatial patterns of modern climatic warming: case study of Northern Eurasia

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London’s temperatures

Variability of daily and monthly observed near-surface temperatures in Uganda 1960–2008

Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus

Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific

Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures

Spatial and temporal patterns of the recent warming of the Amazon forest

Remotely induced warming of Antarctic Bottom Water in the eastern Weddell gyre

Global warming + urbanization = hot nights in the future of Sydney

Development of global hourly 0.5-degree land surface air temperature datasets

Warming in Europe is accelerating compared to the warming over the global land masses

Upper-air temperature trends above Switzerland 1959-2011

U.S. Climate Reference Network after one decade of operations

Observed warming in Atlantic Ocean is consistent with climate model simulations

Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years

Exceptionally hot summers in Central and Eastern Europe are more frequent today (open access)

Revisiting the Controversial Issue of Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends

Long-range memory in Earth’s surface temperature

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia

Rate of warming at Summit, Greenland, has been six times the global average

Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures

Estimation of the Absolute Surface Air Temperature of the Earth

Origin of temperature difference between the hemispheres in present-day climate

Low and high altitude warming rates similar during 20th century in French Alps


The atmospheric energy constraint on global-mean precipitation change

Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from CMIP5 models

Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution (open access)

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.

Significant rainfall decreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in Mediterranean

Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?

Wind speed trends over Turkey from 1975 to 2006

European isotherms move northwards by up to 15 km per year

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/99

Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall

Tropical belt has widened during last few decades

West African Sahel experienced a drying trend over the 20th century

Climate change regional review: Russia

The nexus between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation across Europe

Enhanced future variability during India’s rainy season

Long-term changes in global precipitation during past 3 decades

Variability in the width of the tropics and the annular modes

The Artic oscillation, Climate change and the effects on precipitation in Israel

Consistency of 20th century sea level pressure trends as simulated by a coupled and uncoupled GCM

How do weather characteristics change in a warming climate?

The changing rainy season climatology of mid-Ghana

Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal

Role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of Major Stratospheric Warmings

Trend and variability of China’s summer precipitation during 1955–2008

All midlatitude jets are projected to migrate poleward with climate change

Summer-like atmospheric conditions have appeared earlier and ended later since 1948

Temporal change of climate zones in China in the context of climate warming

Record-breaking summer of 2012 in Greenland (open access)

Spatial and temporal changes in aridity index in northwest China: 1960 to 2010

Interannual variability and expected regional climate change over North America


Changes in weather and climate extremes: phenomenology and empirical approaches

Typhoon season rain extremes in Taiwan over last 60 years: longer droughts, more intense rain

Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onset

Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium

Impact of ocean warm layer thickness on intensity of hurricane Katrina in regional coupled model

Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in NW Pacific Ocean (open access)

No significant long-term trends are found for tropical cyclone sizes in a new study

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia

Has land cover change influenced recent precipitation extremes in the Amazon?

Variability of winter storminess in the eastern United States during the 20th century

Apparently 2012 Great Plains Drought was not caused by global warming

Arctic amplification might not slow down planetary waves after all

Arctic sea-ice reduction and extreme climate events over the Mediterranean region

Sounding-derived parameters associated with tornado occurrence in Poland and universal tornadic index

Influence of atmospheric and sea surface temperature on the size of Hurricane Catarina

Arctic warming and your weather: public belief in the connection

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and implications for winter flooding in Britain (open access)

CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States

Severe and extreme droughts have become more serious since late 1990s for all of China

What caused the winter drought in Western Nepal during recent years? Mankind among other factors

Urban Heat Island of North-Central Texas Region and its Relation to 2011 Severe Texas Drought

Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency globally by 9% when CO2 is doubled

Large increase in extreme rainfall is projected over northern parts of central United States

Longer dry spells are projected for Burkina Faso with changing climate (open access)

Arctic sea ice decrease affects wind patterns which affects winter weather in Europe and East Asia

Great Plains 2012 drought could plausibly have arisen from atmospheric noise alone

European dry spell regimes (1951-2000): Clustering process and time trends

Global changes in propagation of stationary waves in a warming scenario

Climate change and extreme weather in the USA

Regional frequency analysis and spatial pattern characterization of Dry Spells in Iran

Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends

A framework for global river flood risk assessments (open access)

Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (open access)

Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China, 1960–2011

Fewer hurricanes but increasing number of violent storms are projected by 2100 to Mediterranean region

US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters

Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought

AO 2010 winter to summer polarity reversal and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather (open access)

Number of warm-core cyclones is expected to decrease over Mediterranean region

A scPDSI-based global dataset of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009

Summer heat waves have increased over western Turkey between 1965 and 2006


Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections due to carbon cycle feedbacks

On predicting climate under climate change (open access)

Trapped between two tails: trading off scientific uncertainties via climate targets (open access)

CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America

Impact of potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

Can Top of Atmosphere Radiation Measurements Constrain Climate Predictions?

Physical constraints for temperature biases in climate models

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

Simulation of present and future climate of Saudi Arabia with regional climate model (open access);jsessionid=DA5E24909D3558B699BC06B09130C5E4.d01t03

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

Peninsular Florida is projected to dry in the future climate

Intermediate complexity Earth models simulate 20th century trends reasonably well (open access)

How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa?

Decadal prediction of interannual tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature

Reliability of regional climate model trends (open access)

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates

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