AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New climate papers, part 1 – reality of climate change

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 23, 2013

In March I published a batch of early 2013 papers on climate related issues. It’s time to give another update. Since March, there has been lot of new papers, so I’ll divide them to 5 posts. There are 734 papers altogether, so these posts should keep you busy for a while:

Part 1. Reality of climate change (temperature, other climate parameters, climate extremes, future projections).
Part 2. Impacts of climate change (cryosphere, oceans, mankind, ecosystems, other issues).
Part 3. Mitigation and adaptation (greenhouse gases, mankind reaction, energy, technologies and products, adaptation, general mitigation).
Part 4. Past climate changes.
Part 5. Other papers (feedbacks and forcings, general climate science, other issues).

Part 1 contains papers that deal with reality of climate change in the climate system (albeit in a quite broad sense). There are 145 papers in part 1. Subsections are temperature (58 papers), other climate parameters (30 papers), climate extremes (41 papers), and future projections (16 papers; this section also includes some model development papers).

See About New research from last week series for some information of my new research stream (the post discusses weekly posts which I don’t do anymore, but the parts about what papers get included are valid also currently).

TEMPERATURE

Decadal evolution of ocean thermal anomalies in the North Atlantic http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00234.1

Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions (open access + video abstract) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034031

Climate change: changing means and changing extremes http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0888-z

Upper tropospheric warming intensifies sea surface warming http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1928-0

Temperature trends & water vapor and ozone in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50772/abstract

Review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for OHC estimates and climate change http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rog.20022/abstract

Climate change trend in China, warming since 1960s, accelerating since 1980s http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0785-5

General increase in soil temperatures in Büyük Menderes Basin, Turkey http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/met.1421/abstract

Urbanization impact on temperature change in China with emphasis on land cover change and human activity http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00698.1

Comparing historical and modern methods of sea surface temperature measurement – Part 1 (open access) http://www.ocean-sci.net/9/683/2013/os-9-683-2013.html

Comparing historical and modern methods of sea surface temperature measurement – Part 2 (open access) http://www.ocean-sci.net/9/695/2013/os-9-695-2013.html

Crowdsourcing urban air temperatures from smartphone battery temperatures http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50786/abstract

Anthropogenic contributions to Australia’s record summer temperatures of 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/abstract

U.S. station temperature trends: significant cooling in SE and significant warming elsewhere http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50551/abstract

Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00032.1

Climate of Macaronesia is warming faster than global climate http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3710/abstract

Increasing temperature trend through last century cannot be explained by long-range memory http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50399/abstract

Trend detection in surface air temperature in Ontario & Quebec finds significant positive trends http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513001907

Transient 21st century changes in daily-scale temperature extremes in the United States http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1829-2

Greenland Sea surface temperature change and accompanying changes in northern hemispheric climate http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00435.1

Changes in Temperature Records and Extremes: Are They Statistically Significant? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00814.1

Large gaps in the monthly temperature observations for Uganda http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-012.1

Anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of extreme temperature changes http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1

Remarkable and highly significant increase in very warm nights during 1986–2008 in Arabian Peninsula http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3772/abstract

Ed Hawkins & Phil Jones: On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar (open access) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178/abstract

The effects of urbanization on temperature trends in northwestern China http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0944-7

Analysis and modeling of extreme temperatures in several cities in northwestern Mexico http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0933-x

Climate variability analysis of winter temperatures in the central Mediterranean since 1500 AD http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0945-6

Vertical amplification of warming in tropical troposphere is exaggerated in models http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50646/abstract

Rise in air temperature in Saudi Arabia is not likely due to urbanization changes http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0796-2

Evidence for two abrupt warming events of SST in the last century http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0935-8

Urban heat islands and heat waves interact to create larger effect than their sum http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-02.1

Temperature extremes (hot and cold) in Saudi Arabia have increased significantly http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3722/abstract

On the scaling effect in global surface air temperature anomalies (open access) http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/5243/2013/acp-13-5243-2013.html

Temporal and spatial patterns of modern climatic warming: case study of Northern Eurasia http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0697-4

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London’s temperatures http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2144/abstract

Variability of daily and monthly observed near-surface temperatures in Uganda 1960–2008 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3686/abstract

Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50541/abstract

Temperature change on the Antarctic Peninsula linked to the tropical Pacific http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00729.1

Decadal Variations in the Global Atmospheric Land Temperatures http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50458/abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of the recent warming of the Amazon forest http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50456/abstract

Remotely induced warming of Antarctic Bottom Water in the eastern Weddell gyre http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50526/abstract

Global warming + urbanization = hot nights in the future of Sydney http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1789-6

Development of global hourly 0.5-degree land surface air temperature datasets http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00682.1

Warming in Europe is accelerating compared to the warming over the global land masses http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50444/abstract

Upper-air temperature trends above Switzerland 1959-2011 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50438/abstract

U.S. Climate Reference Network after one decade of operations http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00170.1

Observed warming in Atlantic Ocean is consistent with climate model simulations http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50503/abstract

Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/04/23/0959683613483618.abstract

Exceptionally hot summers in Central and Eastern Europe are more frequent today (open access) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-012-0757-0

Revisiting the Controversial Issue of Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50465/abstract

Long-range memory in Earth’s surface temperature http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50399/abstract

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-012-0558-2

Rate of warming at Summit, Greenland, has been six times the global average http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50456/abstract

Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50425/abstract

Estimation of the Absolute Surface Air Temperature of the Earth http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50359/abstract

Origin of temperature difference between the hemispheres in present-day climate http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00636.1

Low and high altitude warming rates similar during 20th century in French Alps http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50401/abstract

OTHER CLIMATE PARAMETERS

The atmospheric energy constraint on global-mean precipitation change http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00163.1

Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from CMIP5 models http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50940/abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution (open access) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034029

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50816/abstract

Significant rainfall decreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in Mediterranean http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-013-0521-8

Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50923/abstract

Wind speed trends over Turkey from 1975 to 2006 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3810/abstract

European isotherms move northwards by up to 15 km per year http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3804/abstract

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/99 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50798/abstract

Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1870-1

Tropical belt has widened during last few decades http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50610/abstract

West African Sahel experienced a drying trend over the 20th century http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3740/abstract

Climate change regional review: Russia http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.236/abstract

The nexus between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation across Europe http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50636/abstract

Enhanced future variability during India’s rainy season http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50583/abstract

Long-term changes in global precipitation during past 3 decades http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1443-8

Variability in the width of the tropics and the annular modes http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL054165/abstract

The Artic oscillation, Climate change and the effects on precipitation in Israel http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513001282

Consistency of 20th century sea level pressure trends as simulated by a coupled and uncoupled GCM http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50545/abstract

How do weather characteristics change in a warming climate? http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1795-8

The changing rainy season climatology of mid-Ghana http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-012-0736-5

Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809512003274

Role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of Major Stratospheric Warmings http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50477/abstract

Trend and variability of China’s summer precipitation during 1955–2008 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3705/abstract

All midlatitude jets are projected to migrate poleward with climate change http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1

Summer-like atmospheric conditions have appeared earlier and ended later since 1948 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3700/abstract

Temporal change of climate zones in China in the context of climate warming http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-013-0887-z

Record-breaking summer of 2012 in Greenland (open access) http://www.the-cryosphere.net/7/615/2013/tc-7-615-2013.html

Spatial and temporal changes in aridity index in northwest China: 1960 to 2010 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-012-0734-7

Interannual variability and expected regional climate change over North America http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1717-9

CLIMATE EXTREMES

Changes in weather and climate extremes: phenomenology and empirical approaches http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0914-1

Typhoon season rain extremes in Taiwan over last 60 years: longer droughts, more intense rain http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.464/abstract

Multi-model seasonal forecasting of global drought onset http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50949/abstract

Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1

Impact of ocean warm layer thickness on intensity of hurricane Katrina in regional coupled model http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00703-013-0275-3

Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in NW Pacific Ocean (open access) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50548/abstract

No significant long-term trends are found for tropical cyclone sizes in a new study http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00096.1

Simulation of rainfall anomalies leading to the 2005 drought in Amazonia http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1919-1

Has land cover change influenced recent precipitation extremes in the Amazon? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00369.1

Variability of winter storminess in the eastern United States during the 20th century http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00561.1

Apparently 2012 Great Plains Drought was not caused by global warming http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00055.1

Arctic amplification might not slow down planetary waves after all http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50880/abstract

Arctic sea-ice reduction and extreme climate events over the Mediterranean region http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00697.1

Sounding-derived parameters associated with tornado occurrence in Poland and universal tornadic index http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513002081

Influence of atmospheric and sea surface temperature on the size of Hurricane Catarina http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2232/abstract

Arctic warming and your weather: public belief in the connection http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3796/abstract

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and implications for winter flooding in Britain (open access) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010

CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00172.1

Severe and extreme droughts have become more serious since late 1990s for all of China http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3701/abstract

What caused the winter drought in Western Nepal during recent years? Mankind among other factors http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00800.1

Urban Heat Island of North-Central Texas Region and its Relation to 2011 Severe Texas Drought http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0195.1

Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in frequency globally by 9% when CO2 is doubled http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00749.1

Large increase in extreme rainfall is projected over northern parts of central United States http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.440/abstract

Longer dry spells are projected for Burkina Faso with changing climate (open access) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1837-2

Arctic sea ice decrease affects wind patterns which affects winter weather in Europe and East Asia http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00046.1

Great Plains 2012 drought could plausibly have arisen from atmospheric noise alone http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50657/abstract

European dry spell regimes (1951-2000): Clustering process and time trends http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809513001762

Global changes in propagation of stationary waves in a warming scenario http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2151/abstract

Climate change and extreme weather in the USA http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-013-0132-1

Regional frequency analysis and spatial pattern characterization of Dry Spells in Iran http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3726/abstract

Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0659-2

A framework for global river flood risk assessments (open access) http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1871/2013/hess-17-1871-2013.html

Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (open access) http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/5163/2013/acp-13-5163-2013.html

Changes in extreme precipitation over Northeast China, 1960–2011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618213000554

Fewer hurricanes but increasing number of violent storms are projected by 2100 to Mediterranean region http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50475/abstract

US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-013-0566-5

Evapotranspiration amplifies European summer drought http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50495/abstract

AO 2010 winter to summer polarity reversal and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather (open access) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1386-0

Number of warm-core cyclones is expected to decrease over Mediterranean region http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1723-y

A scPDSI-based global dataset of dry and wet spells for 1901-2009 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50355/abstract

Summer heat waves have increased over western Turkey between 1965 and 2006 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-012-0704-0

FUTURE PROJECTIONS, MODEL DEVELOPMENT

Uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections due to carbon cycle feedbacks http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1

On predicting climate under climate change (open access) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034021

Trapped between two tails: trading off scientific uncertainties via climate targets (open access) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034019

CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00209.1

Impact of potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50806/abstract

Can Top of Atmosphere Radiation Measurements Constrain Climate Predictions? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00596.1

Physical constraints for temperature biases in climate models http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50737/abstract

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-012-0381-7

Simulation of present and future climate of Saudi Arabia with regional climate model (open access) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3721/abstract;jsessionid=DA5E24909D3558B699BC06B09130C5E4.d01t03

Probabilistic projections of transient climate change http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1647-y

Peninsular Florida is projected to dry in the future climate http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-013-0477-8

Intermediate complexity Earth models simulate 20th century trends reasonably well (open access) http://www.clim-past.net/9/1111/2013/cp-9-1111-2013.html

How well are daily intense rainfall events captured by current climate models over Africa? http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1796-7

Decadal prediction of interannual tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50469/abstract

Reliability of regional climate model trends (open access) http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014055

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-1725-9

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