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Archive for February, 2014

Papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 18, 2014

This is a list of papers on anthropogenic global warming and next glaciation. List also contains some papers that discuss next glaciation more generally. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

Impact of anthropogenic CO2 on the next glacial cycle – Herrero et al. (2013) “The model of Paillard and Parrenin (Earth Planet Sci Lett 227(3–4):263–271, 2004) has been recently optimized for the last eight glacial cycles, leading to two different relaxation models with model-data correlations between 0.8 and 0.9 (García-Olivares and Herrero (Clim Dyn 1–25, 2012b)). These two models are here used to predict the effect of an anthropogenic CO2 pulse on the evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources (URR), with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. The next 20 kyr will have an abnormally high greenhouse effect which, according to the CO2 values, will lengthen the present interglacial by some 25 to 33 kyr. This is because the perturbation of the current interglacial will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf, causing that the relative maximum of boreal insolation found 65 kyr after present (AP) will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation.” Carmen Herrero, Antonio García-Olivares, Josep L. Pelegrí, Climatic Change, December 2013, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1012-0.

Determining the natural length of the current interglacial – Tzedakis et al. (2012) “No glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv (ref. 1). Indeed, model experiments suggest that in the current orbital configuration—which is characterized by a weak minimum in summer insolation—glacial inception would require CO2 concentrations below preindustrial levels of 280 ppmv (refs 2, 3, 4). However, the precise CO2 threshold4, 5, 6 as well as the timing of the hypothetical next glaciation7 remain unclear. Past interglacials can be used to draw analogies with the present, provided their duration is known. Here we propose that the minimum age of a glacial inception is constrained by the onset of bipolar-seesaw climate variability, which requires ice-sheets large enough to produce iceberg discharges that disrupt the ocean circulation. We identify the bipolar seesaw in ice-core and North Atlantic marine records by the appearance of a distinct phasing of interhemispheric climate and hydrographic changes and ice-rafted debris. The glacial inception during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 19c, a close analogue for the present interglacial, occurred near the summer insolation minimum, suggesting that the interglacial was not prolonged by subdued radiative forcing7. Assuming that ice growth mainly responds to insolation and CO2 forcing, this analogy suggests that the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240±5 ppmv.” P. C. Tzedakis, J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven & L. C. Skinner, Nature Geoscience 5, 138–141(2012), doi:10.1038/ngeo1358. [Full text]

How can a glacial inception be predicted? – Crucifix (2011) “The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that present levels of northern summer incoming solar radiation are close to those that, in the past, preceded a glacial inception phenomenon, associated with declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. However, experiments with various numerical models of glacial cycles show that next glacial inception may still be delayed by several tens of thousands of years, even with the assumption of a decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the Holocene. Furthermore, as we show here, conceptual models designed to capture the gross dynamics of the climate system as a whole suggest also that small disturbances may sometimes cause substantial delays in glacial events, causing a fair level of unpredictability on ice age dynamics. This suggests the need for a validated mathematical description of climate system dynamics that allows us to quantify uncertainties on predictions. Here, it is proposed to organise our knowledge about the physics and dynamics of glacial cycles through a Bayesian inference network. Constraints on the physics and dynamics of climate can be encapsulated into a stochastic dynamical system. These constraints include, in particular, estimates of the sensitivity of the components of climate to external forcings, inferred from plans of experiments with large simulators of the atmosphere, oceans and ice sheets. On the other hand, palaeoclimate observations are accounted for through a process of parameter calibration. We discuss promises and challenges raised by this programme.” Michel Crucifix, The Holocene August 2011 vol. 21 no. 5 831-842, doi: 10.1177/0959683610394883. [Full text]

The impact of insolation, greenhouse gas forcing and ocean circulation changes on glacial inception – Vettoretti & Peltier (2011) “In this study we employ the NCAR CCSM3 coupled model to investigate the onset of high northern latitude perennial snow cover. Two periods of Earth’s insolation history, that of the pre-industrial period and that of 116 ka before present (BP), are used as benchmarks in an investigation of the influences of interglacial greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and insolation upon the occurrence of permanent summer snow cover. An additional two experiments at 10 ka and 51 ka into the future (AP) using a typical interglacial GHG level are used to investigate the length of the current interglacial. Results from this set of multicentury sensitivity experiments demonstrate the relative importance of forcings due to insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gases at the millennial scale, and of Atlantic ocean overturning strength (AMOC) at the century scale. We find that while areas of perennial snow cover are sensitive to GHG concentrations, they are much more sensitive to the contemporaneous insolation regime. The goodness of fit of the climatology of the control model to the modern observed climatology is found to influence the modeling results. While there is a strong correlation between AMOC decadal variability and high latitude surface temperature in our control climates, we find little change in AMOC strength during our simulations of 116 ka BP climate nor do we find significant correlation between high latitude snow accumulation and the AMOC. Both the 10 ka AP and 51 ka AP future simulations produce inception events which are much stronger than that of the equivalent pre-industrial simulation. The simulation of inception at 10 ka into the future suggests a maximum duration of the current interglacial of approximately 20 ka in the absence of modern anthropogenic forcing.” G. Vettoretti, W.R. Peltier, The Holocene August 2011 vol. 21 no. 5 803-817, doi: 10.1177/0959683610394885.

A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation – Archer & Ganopolski (2005) “The initiation of northern hemisphere ice sheets in the last 800 kyr appears to be closely controlled by minima in summer insolation forcing at 65°N. Beginning from an initial typical interglacial pCO2 of 280 ppm, the CLIMBER-2 model initiates an ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere when insolation drops 0.7 σ (standard deviation) or 15 W/m2 below the mean. This same value is required to explain the history of climate using an orbitally driven conceptual model based on insolation and ice volume thresholds (Paillard, 1998). When the initial baseline pCO2 is raised in CLIMBER-2, a deeper minimum in summertime insolation is required to nucleate an ice sheet. Carbon cycle models indicate that ∼25% of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years, and ∼7% will remain beyond one hundred thousand years (Archer, 2005). We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500,000 years, until after not one but two 400 kyr cycle eccentricity minima. The duration and intensity of the projected interglacial period are longer than have been seen in the last 2.6 million years.” David Archer, Andrey Ganopolski, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, Volume 6, Issue 5, May 2005, DOI: 10.1029/2004GC000891. [Full text]

The Earth’s Climate in the Next Hundred Thousand years (100 kyr) – Berger et al. (2003) “One of the most striking features of the Quaternary paleoclimate records remains the so-called 100-kyr cycle which is undoubtedly linked to the future of our climate. Such a 100-kyr cycle is indeed characterised by long glacial periods followed by a short-interglacial (∼10–15 kyr long). As we are now in an interglacial, the Holocene, the previous one (the Eemian, which corresponds quite well to Marine Isotope Stage 5e, peaking at ∼125 kyr before present, BP) was assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. In addition, as the Holocene is 10 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were naturally inclined to predict that we are quite close to the next ice age. Simulations using the 2-D climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve show, however, that the current interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous ones. It is suggested here that this is related to the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. As this is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle of eccentricity, the best and closest analogue for such a forcing is definitely Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11), some 400 kyr ago, not MIS-5e. Because the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere also plays an important role in shaping long-term climatic variations – especially its phase with respect to insolation – a detailed reconstruction of this previous interglacial from deep sea and ice records is urgently needed. Such a study is particularly important in the context of the already exceptional present-day CO2 concentrations (unprecedented over the past million years) and, even more so, because of even larger values predicted to occur during the 21st century due to human activities.” A. Berger, M. F. Loutre, M. Crucifix, Surveys in Geophysics, March 2003, Volume 24, Issue 2, pp 117-138. [Full text]

An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? – Berger & Loutre (2002) “Today’s comparatively warm climate has been the exception more than the rule during the last 500,000 years or more. If recent warm periods (or interglacials) are a guide, then we may soon slip into another glacial period. But Berger and Loutre argue in their Perspective that with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun.” A. Berger, M. F. Loutre, Science 23 August 2002: Vol. 297 no. 5585 pp. 1287-1288, DOI: 10.1126/science.1076120. [Full text]

Future Climatic Changes: Are We Entering an Exceptionally Long Interglacial? – Loutre & Berger (2000) “Various experiments have been conducted using the Louvain-la-Neuve two-dimensional Northern Hemisphere climate model (LLN 2-D NH) to simulate climate for the next 130 kyr into the future. Simulations start with values representing the present-day Northern Hemisphere ice sheet, using different scenarios for future CO2 concentrations. The sensitivity of the model to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, and to possible impacts of human activities, has also been tested. Most of the natural scenarios indicate that: (i) the climate is likely to experience a longlasting (∼50 kyr) interglacial; (ii) the next glacial maximum is expected to be most intense at around 100 kyr after present (AP), with a likely interstadial at ∼60 kyr AP; and (iii) after 100 kyr AP continental ice rapidly melts, leading to an ice volume minimum 20 kyr later. However, the amplitude and, to a lesser extent, the timing of future climatic changes depend on the CO2 scenario and on the initial conditions related to the assumed present-day ice volume. According to our modelling experiments, man’s activities over the next centuries may significantly affect the ice-sheet’s behaviour for approximately the next 50 kyr. Finally, the existence of thresholds in CO2 and insolation, earlier shown to be significant for the past, is confirmed to be also important for the future.” M. F. Loutre, A. Berger, Climatic Change, July 2000, Volume 46, Issue 1-2, pp 61-90, DOI 10.1023/A:1005559827189. [Full text]

The end of the present interglacial: how and when? – Broecker (1998) “Despite the large decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation during the last 8000 years, neither sea level nor polar temperatures have as yet undergone any significant downturn. This behavior is consistent with the prediction by Kukla and Matthews (1972) that the Holocene interglacial will terminate suddenly with a jump to another of the climate system’s modes of operation. This is what happened at the end of the last period of peak interglaciation. However, complicating the situation is evidence that ice sheet growth during the transition from marine stage 5e to 5d preceded the shut down of the Atlantic’s conveyor circulation which is thought to have brought Europe’s Eemian to a close. If so, then in the natural course of events, the end of the present interglaciation awaits the onset of icecap growth. However, it must be kept in mind that the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases may alter the natural course of events. In particular, the warming and wetting of the planet will gradually reduce the density of surface waters in the regions where deep waters form. As this reduction is not likely to be symmetrical between the northern Atlantic and the margin of the Antarctic continent, the current near balance between deep water production in the north and south may be disrupted causing an abrupt reorganization of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation. Based on the paleoclimatic record, such a reorganization would have had a profound impact on the planet’s climate.” Broecker, W.S., Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 17, Number 8, 1 August 1998 , pp. 689-694(6), DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00037-7. [Full text]

Summer solstice solar radiation, the 100 kyr Ice Age cycle, and the next Ice Age – Ledley (1995) “Modeling studies suggest that the summer solstice solar radiation is more important than the caloric half-year solar radiation in producing glacial/interglacial cycles because it is more representative of the energy available to melt ice during the short melt season. Here it is shown that the correlation between the summer solstice solar radiation and the rate of change of the oxygen isotope record is generally greater than that between the caloric half-year radiation and the rate of change of the oxygen isotope record. These results also suggest that the sawtoothed nature of the 100 kyr cycle may be produced by periods of relatively slow changes in ice volume, punctuated by periods of rapid growth that are initiated at times of extremely low summer solstice radiation; and that it is unlikely that an ice age will begin in the next 70 kyr.” Tamara Shapiro Ledley, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 22, Issue 20, pages 2745–2748, 15 October 1995, DOI: 10.1029/95GL03027.

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO2 on the dynamics of climate: Implications for ice age cycles – Saltzman et al. (1993) “A dynamical model, developed to account for the observed major variations of global ice mass and atmospheric CO2 during the late Cenozoic, is used to provide a quantitative demonstration of the possibility that the anthropogenically-forced increase of atmospheric CO2, if maintained over a long period of time (perhaps by tectonic forcing), could displace the climatic system from an unstable regime of oscillating ice ages into a more stable regime representative of the pre-Pleistocene. This stable regime is characterized by orbitally-forced oscillations that are of much weaker amplitude than prevailed during the Pleistocene.” Barry Saltzman, Kirk A. Maasch, Mikhail Ya. Verbitsky, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 20, Issue 11, pages 1051–1054, 7 June 1993, DOI: 10.1029/93GL01015.

Quaternary Research special issue: The end of the present interglacial – several authors, 24 papers (1972) Only abstracts are available for individual papers. Quaternary Research, Volume 2, Issue 3, Pages 261-445 (November 1972).

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New research – January 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 3, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during January 2014. There are 174 papers, which makes it about 5.6 papers per day.

CLIMATE SCIENCE

Man-made warming in Indian Ocean during 1958–2004 (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of atmospheric teleconnections and solar variability on atmospheric temperatures in NH ABSTRACT

Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models (open access) ABSTRACT

Effect of data homogenization on estimate of temperature trend, Huairou, Beijing (open access) ABSTRACT

Spatiotemporal characterization of land surface temperature in Mount Kilimanjaro ABSTRACT

Parallel decadal variability of water temperatures for N and S Hemisphere Intermediate Water Masses ABSTRACT

Equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient observations ABSTRACT

Earth’s Energy Imbalance ABSTRACT

Quantifying contributions of climate feedbacks to tropospheric warming in the NCAR CCSM3.0 ABSTRACT

Characterizing the Climate Feedback Pattern in the NCAR CCSM3-SOM Using Hourly Data ABSTRACT

Asymmetry & uncertainties in climate–vegetation feedback over range of CO2 forcings (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of vegetation changes on temperature changes across the Eastern China (open access) ABSTRACT

Interactive ozone induces a negative feedback in CO2 driven climate change simulations ABSTRACT

Stratocumulus cloud feedback in southeastern pacific – models vs. observations ABSTRACT

The responses of cloudiness to the direct radiative effect of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols ABSTRACT

Global distribution of cloud water ABSTRACT

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder version 6 cloud products (open access) ABSTRACT

Effect of cloudiness on long-term variability in air temperature in Krakow (open access) ABSTRACT

Detecting super-thin clouds with polarized sunlight ABSTRACT

Oceanic heat delivery via Kangerlugssuaq Fjord to the south-east Greenland ice sheet ABSTRACT

Urbanization effect on trends of extreme temperature indices over mainland China ABSTRACT

Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes ABSTRACT

Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China ABSTRACT

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961–2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Variations of surface temperature and rainfall in Vietnam from 1971 to 2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland ABSTRACT

The rainfall regime in Lisbon in the last 150 years ABSTRACT

Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation indices over India using PRECIS ABSTRACT

Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010 ABSTRACT

A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979–2011 (open access) ABSTRACT

Cause of severe droughts in Southwest China during 1951–2010 ABSTRACT

Did climate change induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought? ABSTRACT

Why did the 2011-12 La Niña cause a severe drought in the Brazilian Northeast? ABSTRACT

Trends and variability of seasonal weather regimes ABSTRACT

Frost-free season lengthening and its potential cause in the Tibetan Plateau from 1960 to 2010 ABSTRACT

Temporal change of climate zones in China in the context of climate warming ABSTRACT

Influence of Antarctic ice sheet lowering on the Southern Hemisphere climate ABSTRACT

Future change of global monsoon (open access) ABSTRACT

Met Office Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST data set, version 2, part 1: Sea ice concentrations ABSTRACT

Evaluation of seven different atmospheric reanalysis products in the Arctic ABSTRACT

Awareness of both type I and II errors in climate science and assessment ABSTRACT

Terrestrial satellite records for climate studies: how long is long enough? ABSTRACT

Various aerosol types and minor gases in Arctic and Antarctic atmospheres ABSTRACT

On the consistency between global and regional methane emissions (open access) ABSTRACT

Two hundred fifty years of aerosols and climate: the end of the age of aerosols (open access) ABSTRACT

How active International Society of Biometeorology is in climate change research (open access) ABSTRACT

Antarctic ozone variability inside polar vortex estimated from balloon measurements (open access) ABSTRACT

Stratospheric ozone trends and variability as seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012 (open access) ABSTRACT

Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery ABSTRACT

Response of the ozone column over Europe to the 2011 Arctic ozone depletion event ABSTRACT

The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions ABSTRACT

Soil temperatures beneath snow-free skin-surface using thermal observations from satellites ABSTRACT

Mending Milankovitch’s theory: obliquity amplification by surface feedbacks (open access) ABSTRACT

ENSO modulation: Is it decadally predictable? ABSTRACT

Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking ABSTRACT

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

The relationship between climate forcing and impact (open access) ABSTRACT

An Improved Mass Budget for the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Impact of climate sensitivity and polar amplification on projections of Greenland Ice Sheet loss ABSTRACT

Persistent flow acceleration within the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Explaining the presence of perennial liquid water bodies in the firn of the Greenland Ice Sheet ABSTRACT

Complex network of channels beneath an Antarctic ice shelf ABSTRACT

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Glacier area loss in Northern Eurasia (open access) ABSTRACT

Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003–2009 (open access) ABSTRACT

The climate memory of an Arctic polythermal glacier ABSTRACT

Recent changes in freezing level heights in High Asia and their impact on glacier changes ABSTRACT

Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods (open access) ABSTRACT

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs ABSTRACT

Multiyear sea ice thermal regimes and oceanic heat flux in the Arctic Ocean ABSTRACT

Arctic sea ice and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (open access) ABSTRACT

A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985–2011) for the European Alps (open access) ABSTRACT

Central European tree phenology (1946-2010) confirm the recent extension of growing seasons ABSTRACT

Olive tree phenology and climate variations in the Mediterranean area over the last two decades ABSTRACT

Forest ecosystem changes from annual methane source to sink depending on late summer water balance ABSTRACT

Increased topsoil carbon stock across China’s forests ABSTRACT

Forest biomass carbon sinks in East Asia ABSTRACT

Change in tropical forest cover of Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2010 (open access) ABSTRACT

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Terrestrial carbon sink observed from space (open access) ABSTRACT

Predicting changes in temperate forest budburst using continental-scale observations and models ABSTRACT

Impact of climate change and human activities on alpine grassland over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ABSTRACT

Big eucalypts grow more slowly in a warm climate ABSTRACT

Do climatic conditions affect host and parasite phenotypes differentially? ABSTRACT

Ecological responses of plant species and communities to climate warming ABSTRACT

Increased spring freezing vulnerability for alpine shrubs under early snowmelt ABSTRACT

Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China ABSTRACT

Remotely sensed trends in the phenology of northern high latitude terrestrial vegetation ABSTRACT

Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests ABSTRACT

Trends in Finnish forest moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change ABSTRACT

Faster growth in warmer winters for large trees in a Mediterranean-climate ecosystem ABSTRACT

Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change from five pine insect pests ABSTRACT

Phenological change in British butterflies since the late-19th century ABSTRACT

Forest cover reduces thermally suitable habitats for a high-elevation lizard ABSTRACT

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa ABSTRACT

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx ABSTRACT

Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change ABSTRACT

Warming drives a seasonal shift in timing of host-parasite dynamics and affecting disease risk ABSTRACT

Predicting plant invasions under climate change ABSTRACT

Changing Climate and the Altitudinal Range of Avian Malaria in the Hawaiian Islands ABSTRACT

Effects of landscape fragmentation and climate on Lyme disease incidence in NE United States ABSTRACT

Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change ABSTRACT

Montane forest root growth and soil organic layer depth may have stabilized Cenozoic global change ABSTRACT

Larger biodiversity in tropical forests increases their carbon sink ABSTRACT

Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Potential climatic refugia in semi-arid, temperate mountains (Sierra Nevada, California, USA) ABSTRACT

Tropical cyclone cooling combats region-wide coral bleaching ABSTRACT

Do successive climate extremes weaken the resistance of plant communities? (open access) ABSTRACT

Photosynthetic activity buffers ocean acidification in seagrass meadows (open access) ABSTRACT

Ocean acidification state in western Antarctic surface waters (open access) ABSTRACT

Regional variability of acidification in the Arctic: a sea of contrasts (open access) ABSTRACT

Biogeochemical context impacts seawater pH changes from atmospheric sulfur and nitrogen deposition ABSTRACT

Natural variability and anthropogenic change in equatorial Pacific surface ocean pCO2 and pH ABSTRACT

Observed small spatial scale and seasonal variability of CO2 in Southern Ocean (open access) ABSTRACT

The iron budget in ocean surface waters in the 20th and 21st centuries (open access) ABSTRACT

A curious local surface salinity maximum in the northwestern tropical Atlantic ABSTRACT

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast from the late 20th century ABSTRACT

Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ABSTRACT

Millennial variability in an idealized ocean model: predicting the AMOC regime shifts ABSTRACT

Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multi-model CMIP5 simulations ABSTRACT

Arctic Ocean basin liquid freshwater storage trend 1992 – 2012 ABSTRACT

Is flooding in Toronto a concern? ABSTRACT

Comparison of different evaporation estimates over the African continent (open access) ABSTRACT

Energy input is primary controller of methane bubbling in subarctic lakes ABSTRACT

Climate change risks to US infrastructure (open access) ABSTRACT

Historical evidence for climate driven migrations in Portuguese fishing community ABSTRACT

Climate change as a challenge to modern ways of thinking and being ABSTRACT

On climate variability and civil war in Asia (open access) ABSTRACT

Implications of changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia ABSTRACT

Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa ABSTRACT

Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Living on climate-changed country: health and well-being in Remote Australian Communities ABSTRACT

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic Sea-Ice? (open access) ABSTRACT

Will geoengineering be able to stop Arctic sea ice and snow from melting? ABSTRACT

Religion and climate change: varieties in viewpoints and practices ABSTRACT

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments ABSTRACT

Full greenhouse gas budget of Africa: synthesis, uncertainties, and vulnerabilities (open access) ABSTRACT

Effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency (OA) ABSTRACT

Considering local adaptation increases willingness to mitigate ABSTRACT

Historical responsibility for climate change: science and the science–policy interface ABSTRACT

Contribution of lawn mowing to atmospheric aerosol levels in American suburbs (open access) ABSTRACT

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform climate change risk analysis ABSTRACT

Most people in UK see cold events as pointing towards the reality of climate change (open access) ABSTRACT

Local surface temperature change due to expansion of oil palm plantation in Indonesia ABSTRACT

Well permeability estimation and CO2 leakage rates ABSTRACT

Reduced emissions from U.S. power plants due to switch from coal to natural gas (open access) ABSTRACT

Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering (open access) ABSTRACT

Overview of the potential of microalgae for CO2 sequestration ABSTRACT

Efficiency of carbon sequestration by added reactive nitrogen in ocean fertilisation ABSTRACT

Shifting discourses of climate change in India ABSTRACT

Well permeability estimation and CO2 leakage rates ABSTRACT

Public engagement with climate change: the role of human values (open access) ABSTRACT

Smallholder farmer cropping decisions related to climate variability across multiple regions ABSTRACT

The dynamics of oil consumption and economic growth in Malaysia ABSTRACT

Lightning discharges produced by wind turbines ABSTRACT

The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration Policies for Climate Change Mitigation ABSTRACT

Variations in wind-energy regime of Taklimakan Desert, central Asia, over last 700 years ABSTRACT

National contributions to observed global warming (open access) ABSTRACT

Can we modify stratospheric water vapor by deliberate cloud seeding ABSTRACT

The regional climate impact of a realistic future deforestation scenario in the Congo Basin ABSTRACT

PALAEOCLIMATE

Climatic potential of Islamic chronicles in Iberia: Extreme droughts (AD 711–1010) ABSTRACT

New tools for the reconstruction of Pleistocene Antarctic sea ice ABSTRACT

Swiss tree-rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times ABSTRACT

A 0.6-Million Year Record of Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the Tropics ABSTRACT

Past 1200 years surface air temperature reconstruction with tree rings for Gulf of Alaska ABSTRACT

70-80 year peridiocity identified from tree ring temperatures AD 550–1980 in N Scandinavia ABSTRACT

Ephemeral formation of perennial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean during the middle Eocene ABSTRACT

Evidence of the solar Gleissberg cycle in the nitrate concentration in polar ice ABSTRACT

Atlantic overturning responses to obliquity and precession over the last 3 Myr ABSTRACT

Late Pliocene lakes and soils: global data set for analysis of climate feedbacks in warmer world (OA) ABSTRACT

CO2 forcing and Intertropical Convergence Zone influence on W Pacific warm pool climate, past 400 ka ABSTRACT

Sedimentological and taphonomic evidence for drought-induced die-offs at Permo-Triassic boundary ABSTRACT

Delayed hydrological response to Greenland cooling at the onset of Younger Dryas in western Europe ABSTRACT

Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations (open access) ABSTRACT

Muted change in Atlantic overturning circulation over some glacial-aged Heinrich events ABSTRACT

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