AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research – June and July 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 7, 2015

Below are some new climate related papers from June and July 2015. They are not ordered by subject but roughly by publication time.

Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

Arctic sea ice reduction: the evidence, models and impacts

Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns (open access)

Time scales and ratios of climate forcing due to thermal versus carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels (open access)

Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming

Simulated climatology and evolution of aridity in the 21st century

Seasonal changes in tropical SST and the surface energy budget under global warming projected by CMIP5 models

An inventory of glacial lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global warming

Exceptionally cold and mild winters in Europe (1951–2010) (open access)

Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

Casualties as a moral measure of climate change

Sensitivity of Caspian sea-ice to air temperature

Increase in flood and drought disasters during 1500–2000 in Southwest China

Spring–summer albedo variations of Antarctic sea ice from 1982 to 2009 (open access)

Why we should help people understand our scientific literature (open access)

How has soil carbon stock changed over recent decades?

International trends in public perceptions of climate change over the past quarter century (open access)

The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity (open access)

Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves (open access)

Asymmetric Impact of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on El Niño and La Niña Characteristics

Subtropical and mid-latitude ozone trends in the stratosphere: implications for recovery

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections cannot preserve the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Greenland Ice Sheet melt increases Baffin Bay heat content on the west Greenland shelf

Uncertainty of Arctic summer ice drift assessed by high-resolution SAR data

The seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean under climate change

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

Drought and Pluvial Dipole Events within the Great Plains of the United States

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records (open access)

Changes in the firn structure of the western Greenland Ice Sheet caused by recent warming (open access)

Comparison of in-situ, aircraft, and satellite land surface temperature measurements over a NOAA Climate Reference Network site

Can we infer avalanche–climate relations using tree-ring data? Case studies in the French Alps

Effects of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature changes in China during the twentieth century based on CMIP5 models

Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing

Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective

Stronger warming amplification over drier ecoregions observed since 1979 (open access)

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover

How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?

The climatological distribution of extreme Arctic winds, and implications for ocean and sea ice processes

The evolution of habitable climates under the brightening Sun

The Anthropocene biosphere

The Impact of Arctic Winter Infrared Radiation on Early Summer Sea Ice

Weak precipitation, warm winters and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994–2013) (open access)

Super El Niños in response to global warming in a climate model

Is a White Christmas becoming rarer in southern parts of Sweden?

Sponge erosion under acidification and warming scenarios: differential impacts on living and dead coral

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate (open access)

Using regime analysis to identify the contribution of clouds to surface temperature errors in weather and climate models

Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans (open access)

Scepticism in a changing climate: A cross-national study

Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

Massive nitrous oxide emissions from the tropical South Pacific Ocean

Disappearance of the southeast U.S. “warming hole” with the late-1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Modern solar maximum forced late 20th century Greenland cooling

Transports and budgets of anthropogenic CO2 in the tropical North Atlantic in 1992–93 and 2010–11

Recent Spatio-temporal patterns in Temperature Extremes across Conterminous United States

Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification on early life stages of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) (open access)

Nonlinear response of modelled stratospheric ozone to changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the recent past (open access)

A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data (open access)

Assessment of urban effect on observed warming trends during 1955–2012 over China: a case of 45 cities

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events

Decoding the precision of historical temperature observations

Will A Warmer and Wetter Future Cause Extinction of Native Hawaiian Forest Birds?

Seasonality of soil moisture mediates responses of ecosystem phenology to elevated CO2 and warming in a semi-arid grassland

The distribution of precipitation and the spread in tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends in CMIP5/AMIP simulations

Undercutting of marine-terminating glaciers in West Greenland

Estimating global and North American methane emissions with high spatial resolution using GOSAT satellite data (open access)

Terrestrial net primary productivity in India during 1901–2010: contributions from multiple environmental changes

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States (open access)

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency (open access)

Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada’s boreal forests

An assessment of methods for computing radiative forcing in climate models (open access)

Aboveground carbon loss in natural and managed tropical forests from 2000 to 2012 (open access)

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing (open access)

Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia

Evidence for long-term shift in plant community composition under decadal experimental warming

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

The Observed State of the Energy Budget in the Early 21st Century

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early 21st Century

Why does aerosol forcing control historical global-mean surface temperature change in CMIP5 models?

Hybrid glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) mass balance product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic

Assessing temperature sensitivity of subalpine shrub phenology in semi-arid mountain regions of China

Can changes in the distribution of lizard species over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Ice storm frequencies in a warmer climate

On the predictability of extremes: does the butterfly effect ever decrease?

Framework of barrier reefs threatened by ocean acidification

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

A cyclone climatology of the British-Irish Isles 1871–2012

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

The vulnerability of the US food system to climate change

What if solar energy becomes really cheap? A thought experiment on environmental problem shifting

Climate change implications for the nest site selection process and subsequent hatching success of a green turtle population

Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition

Amplified melt and flow of the Greenland ice sheet driven by late-summer cyclonic rainfall

Methane emissions from an alpine wetland on the Tibetan Plateau: Neglected but vital contribution of non-growing season

The recent hiatus in global warming of the land surface: scale-dependent breakpoint occurrences in space and time

Trends in the Local Hadley and Local Walker Circulations

Increasing evaporation amounts seen in the Arctic between 2003-2013 from AIRS data

An oceanic impact of the Kuroshio on surface air temperature on the Pacific coast of Japan in summer: Regional H2O greenhouse gas effect

Wintertime storage of water in buried supraglacial lakes across the Greenland Ice Sheet (open access)

Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model (open access)

The Greenland ice sheet during the last glacial cycle: current ice loss and contribution to sea-level rise from a palaeoclimatic perspective

Ways of knowing climate: Hubert H. Lamb and climate research in the UK

Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

Guidance for representing uncertainty on global temperature change maps

Allocating a 2 °C cumulative carbon budget to countries (open access)

Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming (open access)

Additional contributions to CMIP5 regional sea level projections resulting from Greenland and Antarctic ice mass loss (open access)

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Sea-air CO2 exchange in the western Arctic coastal ocean

The impact of stored solar heat on Arctic sea-ice Growth

Causes of the 2011 to 2014 California drought

Patterns of Asian Winter Climate Variability and Links to Arctic Sea Ice

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Detecting recent changes in the areal extent of North Cascades glaciers, U.S.A.

On the climate and climate change of Sitka, Southeast Alaska (open access)

How climate proof is the European Union’s biodiversity policy?

Decreasing US aridity in a warming climate

Linking interannual variability in extreme Greenland blocking episodes to the recent increase in summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet

An estimate of anthropogenic heat emissions in China

Effect of changes in temperature scales on historical temperature data

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain

Plant phenological responses to a long-term experimental extension of growing season and soil warming in the tussock tundra of Alaska

It is not just about the ice: a geochemical perspective on the changing Arctic Ocean (open access)

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range

The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results

Mass-balance changes of the debris-covered glaciers in the Langtang Himal, Nepal, from 1974 to 1999

Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

The Global Land Rush and Climate Change (open access)

Hidden carbon sink beneath desert

Determining Regional Weather Patterns from a Historical Diary

Robust Future Changes in Temperature Variability under Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Relationship with Thermal Advection

Reconstructing European forest management from 1600 to 2010 (open access)

Source contributions to 2012 summertime aerosols in the Euro-Mediterranean region (open access)

Impact of Climate Change on Urban Heat Island Effect and Extreme Temperatures: A Case Study

Evaluating changes in season length, onset, and end dates across the United States (1948–2012)

Destruction or persistence of coral atoll islands in the face of 20th and 21st century sea-level rise?

Fishers’ perceptions of climate change, impacts on their livelihoods and adaptation strategies in environmental change hotspots: a case of Lake Wamala, Uganda

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers

Derivation and analysis of a complete modern-date glacier inventory for Alaska and northwest Canada

Local Trend Disparities Of European Minimum And Maximum Temperature Extremes

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (open access)

The Earth’s energy balance

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Surface ocean CO2 in 1990–2011 modelled using a feed-forward neural network (open access)

Glaciers and climate change: narratives of ruined futures

Ocean warming ameliorates the negative effects of ocean acidification on Paracentrotus lividus larval development and settlement

The evolution of the evidence base for observed impacts of climate change

How resilient are farming households and communities to a changing climate in Africa? A gender-based perspective

Effects of wind-energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

Sensitivity of flowering phenology to changing temperature in China

What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014?

Anthropogenic Weakening of the Tropical Circulation: The Relative Roles of Direct CO2 Forcing and Sea Surface Temperature Change

Repeat storm surge disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and its 1897 predecessor in the Philippines

Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the middle east

Climate context of the cold summer of 2014 in Toronto, ON, Canada

The climate of war: violence, warfare, and climatic reductionism


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