AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for October, 2015

New research, October 30, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 30, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Has the grand idea of geoengineering as Plan B run out of steam?

Holocene North Atlantic Overturning in an atmosphere–ocean-sea-ice model compared to proxy-based reconstructions

Large methane emissions from a subarctic lake during spring thaw: mechanisms and landscape significance

Placing the 2012–2015 California-Nevada drought into a paleoclimatic context: Insights from Walker Lake, California-Nevada, USA

Millennial-scale oscillations between sea ice and convective deep water formation

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea-level rise: Past and future

Distributed subglacial discharge drives significant submarine melt at a Greenland tidewater glacier

Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?

The impact of regional Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Comparison of radiative energy flows in observational datasets and climate modeling

Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (open access)

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate? (open access)

The U.S. Drought of 2012 (open access)

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study (open access)

Decadal trends of the annual amplitude of global precipitation (open access)

Air temperature changes in Svalbard and the surrounding seas from 1865 to 1920

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming

Carbon sequestration in soil

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits (open access)

Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health (open access)

Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK

Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea (open access)

Warming affects hatching time and early season survival of eastern tent caterpillars


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New research, October 26, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 26, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Interannual variations of light-absorbing particles in snow on Arctic sea ice

Trends in mesospheric ice layers in the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2013

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

The detectability of climate engineering

The 2011 Great Flood in Thailand: Climate Diagnostics and Implications from Climate Change

How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?

Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague (open access)

The importance of Asia as a source of black carbon to the European Arctic during springtime 2013 (open access)

Glacier changes in the Ravi basin, north-western Himalaya (India) during the last four decades (1971–2010/13)

Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models

Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks

Recent accelerating mass loss of southeast Tibetan glaciers and the relationship with changes in macroscale atmospheric circulations

Effect of methane leakage on the greenhouse gas footprint of electricity generation

The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph

Do rapidly developing countries take up new responsibilities for climate change mitigation?

Global warming-related tree growth decline and mortality on the north-eastern Tibetan plateau

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds – combining annual and decadal time scales

Geographical imbalances and divides in the scientific production of climate change knowledge

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection (open access)

3D simulation of boreal forests: structure and dynamics in complex terrain and in a changing climate (open access)

Climatization: A Critical Perspective of Framing Disasters as Climate Change Events (open access)

California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change

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New research, October 20, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 20, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980

Origins of Anthropocene awareness

Thousand-year history of northeastern Europe exploration in the context of climatic change: Medieval to early modern times

Neither dust nor black carbon causing apparent albedo decline in Greenland’s dry snow zone; implications for MODIS C5 surface reflectance

Regional sea level change in response to ice mass loss in Greenland, the West Antarctic and Alaska

Increase in HFC-134a emissions in response to the success of the Montreal Protocol

Empirical error functions for monthly-mean Arctic sea-ice drift

A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

First records of winter sea-ice concentration in the southwest Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean

Links between Eastern Equatorial Pacific Stratification and Atmospheric CO2 Rise during the last Deglaciation

Sensitivity of the southern ocean to enhanced regional antarctic ice sheet meltwater input (open access)

Gas-hydrate dissociation prolongs acidification of the Anthropocene oceans

The role of the selection problem and non-Gaussianity in attribution of single events to climate change

Quantifying the limits of a linear temperature response to cumulative CO2 emissions

Blowing snow as a natural glaciogenic cloud seeding mechanism

Volcanic synchronization of Dome Fuji and Dome C Antarctic deep ice cores over the past 216 kyr (open access)

Images of climate change – a pilot study of young people’s perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes

Multi-decadal variability in the Greenland ice core records obtained using intrinsic timescale decomposition

Global patterns of solar influence on high cloud cover

Variations in annual winter mean temperature in South China since 1736

Protected areas’ role in climate-change mitigation

Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions (open access)

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models? (open access)

Ground ice melt in the high Arctic leads to greater ecological heterogeneity

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New research, October 14, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 14, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios

Climate and human influences on historical fire regimes (AD 1400–1900) in the eastern Great Basin (USA)

Origins of Climate Model Discrepancies in Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption and Global Precipitation Changes

Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: a key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

Consistent decrease in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last 3 centuries

Salt precipitation in sea ice and its effect on albedo, with application to Snowball Earth

Factors controlling cloud albedo in marine subtropical stratocumulus regions in climate models and satellite observations

Explaining the spread in global mean thermosteric sea level rise in CMIP5 climate models

The Climate Change Web Portal: a system to access and display climate and earth system model output from the CMIP5 archive

The role of snow cover affecting boreal-arctic soil freeze–thaw and carbon dynamics (open access)

Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate (open access)

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China (open access)

Natural and human-induced changes in summer climate over the East Asian monsoon region in the last half century: A review (open access)

A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios (open access)

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth

Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century (open access)

Response to CO2 enrichment of understory vegetation in the shade of forests

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Dynamic habitat suitability modelling reveals rapid poleward distribution shift in a mobile apex predator

Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland (1951–2010): from warming to hiatus (open access)

The last Eurasian ice sheets – a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1 (open access)

Temperature-induced water stress in high-latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming

Theme issue ‘Responding and adapting to climate change: uncertainty as knowledge’ compiled and edited by Stephan Lewandowsky, Timothy Ballard and Richard D. Pancost

Uncertainty as knowledge (full text)

Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 9, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 9, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system: introduction (open access)

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback

Insights into low-latitude cloud feedbacks from high-resolution models

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? (open access)

The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO2 (open access)

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback (open access)

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints (open access)

Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change

Can cirrus cloud seeding be used for geoengineering?

Anticipating the Anthropocene (open access)

Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica

Relationship Between Sunshine Duration and Temperature Trends Across Europe Since the Second Half of the 20th Century

Long term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: more evidence of high climate sensitivity

Blocking variability: Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Oscillation

Decadal variability in seawater pH in the West Pacific: Evidence from coral δ11B records

Effect of sea-ice melt on inherent optical properties and vertical distribution of solar radiant heating in Arctic surface waters

Global deep ocean oxygenation by enhanced ventilation in the Southern Ocean under long-term global warming

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

A minimum standard for publishing computational results in the weather and climate sciences

Sea level budget over 2005–2013: missing contributions and data errors (open access)

Parallelisms between sea surface temperature changes in the western tropical Atlantic (Guiana Basin) and high latitude climate signals over the last 140 000 years (open access)

Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity, habitat connectivity, and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta, Canada

Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models’ response to warming

The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010 (open access)

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Direct radiative feedback due to biogenic secondary organic aerosol estimated from boreal forest site observations (open access)

Focus on high energy particles and atmospheric processes (open access)

Biogas: Clean Energy Access with Low-Cost Mitigation of Climate Change

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New research, October 5, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 5, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus

North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies

Carbon isotope ratios suggest no additional methane from boreal wetlands during the rapid Greenland Interstadial 21.2

Using single-forcing GCM simulations to reconstruct and interpret Quaternary climate change

Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics (open access)

A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

Transition into a Hothouse World at the Permian–Triassic boundary—A model study

Climate change with elevation and its potential impact on water resources in the tianshan mountains, central Asia

Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century

The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate (open access)

Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat – Assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades

Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades

High spatial and temporal organization of changes in precipitation over Germany for 1951–2006

Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits

A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

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