AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for December, 2015

New research, December 31, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 31, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Text-mining the signals of climate change doubt

North by north-west: climate change and directions of density shifts in birds

On the state dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years (open access)

The need for accurate long-term measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with global coverage (open access)

Does GRACE see the terrestrial water cycle ‘intensifying’?

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998–2013) – Increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes during the “global warming hiatus”

Strengthening relationship between ENSO and western Russian summer surface temperature

Atmospheric conditions in the central Arctic Ocean through the melt seasons of 2012 and 2013: Impact on surface conditions and solar energy deposition into the ice-ocean system

Large Holocene summer temperature oscillations and impact on the peopling of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Ice shelf basal melt rates around Antarctica from simulations and observations

Tropical and mid-latitude forcing of continental Antarctic temperatures (open access)

Stratospheric temperature changes during the satellite era

ENSO amplitude changes due to greenhouse warming in CMIP5: Role of mean tropical precipitation in the 20th century

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper ocean salinity changes

Antarctic and Southern Ocean surface temperatures in CMIP5 models in the context of the surface energy budget

Climate Change over the Extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration (open access)

Recent changes in glacier velocities and thinning at Novaya Zemlya

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world’s highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

Species and site differences influence climate-shrub growth responses in West Greenland

Inter-annual variations and trends of the urban warming in Tehran

Asymmetry in the response of central Eurasian winter temperature to AMO

Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice

ENSO influence on the North Atlantic European climate: a non-linear and non-stationary approach

Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia

Randomised multichannel singular spectrum analysis of the 20th century climate data (open access)

Does climate change matter for freshwater aquaculture in Bangladesh?

Modeling climate-driven changes in U.S. buildings energy demand

Evaluation of the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level in the Pacific in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses

Climate-change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

Long-term trends in precipitation and temperature across the Caribbean

Climate variability, food production shocks, and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (open access)

Interannual variability in associations between seasonal climate, weather, and extremes: wintertime temperature over the Southwestern United States (open access)

How is adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability research engaging with gender? (open access)

Population limitation in a non-cyclic arctic fox population in a changing climate


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New research, December 21, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 21, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe (open access)

A reduction in marine primary productivity driven by rapid warming over the tropical Indian Ocean

Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses

Environmental responses of the Northeast Antarctic Peninsula to the Holocene climate variability

Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing

Measurements and modelling of snow particle size and shortwave infrared albedo over a melting Antarctic ice sheet (open access)

Summertime evolution of snow specific surface area close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau (open access)

Regional variability of a projected sea ice-free Arctic during the summer months (open access)

Episodic warming of near-bottom waters under the Arctic sea ice on the central Laptev Sea shelf

Consequences of future increased arctic runoff on Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice cover

Spectral albedo and transmittance of thin young Arctic sea ice

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent mega-drought in central Chile

Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century

Mid-Holocene permafrost: Results from CMIP5 simulations

In-situ based reanalysis of the global ocean temperature and salinity with ISAS: variability of the heat content and steric height

Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent (open access)

Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle (open access)

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene (open access)

Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium (open access)

Is extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal a ‘green’ form of geoengineering? A global modelling study

Ancient Juniper trees growing on cliffs: towards a long Mediterranean tree-ring chronology

A new paleoclimate classification for deep time

The intensification of thermal extremes in west Africa

Facing climatic hazards: Paleolithic foragers and Neolithic farmers

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh

Seventeen-year trends in spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens in a boreal environment

Community-wide changes in inter-taxonomic temporal co-occurrence resulting from phenological shifts

Cli-fi on the screen(s): patterns in the representations of climate change in fictional films

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events (open access)

Climate change in Algeria and its impact on durum wheat

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from future Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs (open access)

Land cover and land use changes in the oil and gas regions of Northwestern Siberia under changing climatic conditions (open access)

Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities (open access)

Input–output life cycle environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from utility scale wind energy in the United States

Projected habitat loss for Atlantic herring in the Baltic Sea

Characterizing the GHG emission impacts of carsharing: a case of Vancouver (open access)

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New research, December 15, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 15, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Record-breaking temperatures in China during the warming and recent hiatus periods

Analysis of CO2 mole fraction data: first evidence of large-scale changes in CO2 uptake at high northern latitudes (open access)

Physical processes contributing to an ice free Beaufort Sea during September 2012

Enhanced warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

Modern to millennium-old greenhouse gases emitted from ponds and lakes of the Eastern Canadian Arctic (Bylot Island, Nunavut) (open access)

The political collapse of Chichén Itzá in climatic and cultural context

Spatial analysis of trends in primary production and relationship with large-scale climate variability in the Ross Sea, Antarctica (1997-2013)

Recent Hadley cell expansion: the role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trends

Analytic radiative-advective equilibrium as a model for high-latitude climate

Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau, China: 1982–2011

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: enhancing citizen’s climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism (open access)

Antarctic icebergs distributions 1992-2014

Further Exploring and Quantifying Uncertainties for Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Version 4 (v4)

Bias in the variance of gridded data sets leads to misleading conclusions about changes in climate variability

Timing of the first drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1

Global spread of hypoxia in freshwater ecosystems during the last three centuries is caused by rising local human pressure

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, December 11, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 11, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Predicted slow-down in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice

A growing importance of large fires in conterminous United States during 1984 – 2012

Antarctic Ice Shelf Thickness from Cryosat-2 Radar Altimetry (open access)

Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

On the vertical phytoplankton response to an ice free Arctic Ocean

Temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States: Quantifying the responses to anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Robust strengthening and westward shift of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation during 1979~2012: a comparison of 7 sets of reanalysis data and 26 AMIP5 models

Climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world

The effect of downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation on Arctic summer sea ice

Unforced surface air temperature variability and its contrasting relationship with the anomalous TOA energy flux at local and global spatial scales

Variability in severe coastal flooding in south-eastern Australia since the mid-19th century, associated storms and death tolls

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability – first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) (open access)

Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model (open access)

Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets (open access)

Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions (open access)

Trends and climatic sensitivities of vegetation phenology in semiarid and arid ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011 (open access)

Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT (open access)

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change (open access)

Was atmospheric CO2 capped at 1000 ppm over the past 300 million years?

Influence of altered low cloud parameterizations for seasonal variation of Arctic cloud amount on climate feedbacks

Contrasting evolution patterns between glacier-fed and non-glacier-fed lakes in the Tanggula Mountains and climate cause analysis

Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models

Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Impact of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity on Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variation during 1980–2013

Greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions from soils following afforestation in central China

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue (open access)

Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska (open access)

Total land water storage change over 2003–2013 estimated from a global mass budget approach (open access)

Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees

Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, December 7, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 7, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in five years?

A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record

How much does it rain over land?

Can public perceptions of Australian climate extremes be reconciled with the statistics of climate change? (open access)

Exceptional ocean surface conditions on the SE Greenland shelf during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Quantification of precipitation and temperature uncertainties simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene (open access)

Getting Greenland’s glaciers right – a new data set of all official Greenlandic glacier names (open access)

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices

Effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

Land-use legacies rather than climate change are driving the recent upward shift of the mountain tree line in the Pyrenees

The importance of sea-ice area biases in 21st century multi-model projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

Exploring the Tropically Excited Arctic Warming Mechanism with Station Data: Links between Tropical Convection and Arctic Downward Infrared Radiation

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations (open access)

Snow cover on Arctic Sea ice in observations and an Earth System Model

Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level

Impacts of climate and reclamation on temporal variations in CH4 emissions from different wetlands in China: from 1950 to 2010 (open access)

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China

High-resolution inventory of technologies, activities, and emissions of coal-fired power plants in China from 1990 to 2010 (open access)

Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

Evaluating economic costs and benefits of climate resilient livelihood strategies

A 382-year reconstruction of August mean minimum temperature from tree-ring maximum latewood density on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Dendroclimatic reconstruction of late summer temperatures from upper treeline sites in Greater Caucasus, Russia

Megacities, air quality and climate

Special issue: Ancient polar ecosystems and paleoclimate in deep time: Evidence from the past, implications for the future

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

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