AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for January, 2016

New research, January 28, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 28, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The Medieval Quiet Period

Neotropical forest expansion during the last glacial period challenges refuge hypothesis

Relative vulnerability to climate change of trees in western North America

Dependence of tropical cyclone intensification rate on sea surface temperature

The updated effective radiative forcing of major anthropogenic aerosols and their effects on global climate at present and in the future

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe (open access)

The regional species richness and genetic diversity of Arctic vegetation reflect both past glaciations and current climate

Ecosystem responses to anthropogenic and natural forcing over the last 100?years in the coastal areas of the East China Sea

Climate-change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar

Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Evaluation of downscaled CMIP5 model skill in simulating daily maximum temperature over the southeastern United States

The radiative impact of Nordic anthropogenic black carbon (open access)

Younger Dryas Sea-Level and Meltwater Pulse 1B Recorded in Barbados Reef-Crest Coral Acropora palmata

Global carbon cycle perturbation across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition (open access)

Human and climatically induced environmental change in the Mediterranean during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age a case from central Italy

Halogen-based reconstruction of Russian Arctic sea ice area from the Akademii Nauk ice core (Severnaya Zemlya) (open access)

Predictability of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation based on autumn circulation

Climate controls multidecadal variability in U.S. extreme sea level records

Investigating uncertainty in the simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Piacenzian

The Response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Fresh Water from Ice Shelves in an Earth System Model

A coupled model for carbon and radiocarbon evolution during the last deglaciation

Variability in solar irradiance observed at two contrasting Antarctic sites

Phenopix: A R package for image-based vegetation phenology

Securitization in Chinese climate and energy politics

The principal-agent problem and climate change adaptation on public lands

City density and CO2 efficiency

To drill or not to drill? An econometric analysis of US public opinion

Prospects for Swedish acceptance of carbon dioxide storage in the Baltic Sea: Learning from other energy projects

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, January 22, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 22, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

A mental picture of the greenhouse effect (open access)

What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

High basal melting forming a channel at the grounding line of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

Trends toward an earlier peak of the growing season in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea-ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts

A modeling investigation of the Arctic sea ice-atmosphere feedback

Detection and Attribution of Climate Extremes in the Observed Record

Climate system responses to a common emission budget of carbon dioxide

A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions (open access)

Arctic Air Masses in a Warming World

Twentieth-century sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea and its effect on moisture transport: Evidence from a coastal East Antarctic ice core record

Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project

Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation

Impact of climate change on precipitation patterns: a comparative approach

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr (open access)

Sea ice cover in Isfjorden and Hornsund, Svalbard (2000–2014) from remote sensing data (open access)

Comparison of multiple glacier inventories with a new inventory derived from high-resolution ALOS imagery in the Bhutan Himalaya (open access)

Feasibility of improving a priori regional climate model estimates of Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss through assimilation of measured ice surface temperatures (open access)

Ablation from calving and surface melt at lake-terminating Bridge Glacier, British Columbia, 1984–2013 (open access)

Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt. Kenya (open access)

The relative contributions of forest growth and areal expansion to forest biomass carbon (open access)

Response of Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Circulation to Arctic Amplification in a Simple Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Laurentide Ice Sheet basal temperatures during the last glacial cycle as inferred from borehole data (open access)

Climatic modulation of recent trends in ocean acidification in the California Current System (open access)

Potential future fisheries yields in shelf waters: a model study of the effects of climate change and ocean acidification (open access)

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America

Modeling phenological responses of Inner Mongolia grassland species to regional climate change

High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch (open access)

Altitudinal shifts of the native and introduced flora of California in the context of 20th-century warming (open access)

Can we explain the observed methane variability after the Mount Pinatubo eruption? (open access)

Spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic river ice breakup revealed by automated ice detection from MODIS imagery

Paleoclimate of Antarctica reconstructed from clast weathering rind analysis

Spatial scales of temperature and salinity variability estimated from Argo observations (open access)

Sheet, stream, and shelf flow as progressive ice-bed uncoupling: Byrd Glacier, Antarctica and Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland (open access)

Sea surface temperature from the new Japanese geostationary meteorological Himawari-8 satellite

Multi-decadal variations in Southern Hemisphere atmospheric 14C: Evidence against a Southern Ocean sink at the end of the Little Ice Age CO2 anomaly

A revised picture of the atmospheric moisture residence time

Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

How climate metrics affect global mitigation strategies and costs: a multi-model study

Climate change in literature and literary studies: From cli-fi, climate change theater and ecopoetry to ecocriticism and climate change criticism

The CRE – new data and tools for collaborative research in climate and environmental history (open access)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, January 18, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 18, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

BAMS special supplement: Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective (open access)

Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent (open access)

On the state dependency of the equilibrium climate sensitivity during the last 5 million years (open access)

Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium (open access)

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene (open access)

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr (open access)

Radiative Analysis of Global Mean Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere: Effects of Non-Locality and Secondary Absorption Bands

Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene (open access)

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration (open access)

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations (open access)

SeaRISE experiments revisited: potential sources of spread in multi-model projections of the Greenland ice sheet (open access)

Millennial changes in North Atlantic oxygen concentrations (open access)

The global warming-induced South Asian High change and its uncertainty

Detection and spatiotemporal analysis of methane ebullition on thermokarst lake ice using high-resolution optical aerial imagery (open access)

Assessing Surface Solar Radiation Fluxes in the CMIP Ensembles

Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions (open access)

The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes (open access)

Time series construction of summer surface temperatures for Alabama, 1883-2014, and comparisons with tropospheric temperature and climate model simulations

Climate model biases in the width of the tropical belt

A framework for evaluating climate model performance metrics

Comparison between total cloud cover in four reanalysis products and cloud measured by visual observations at U.S. weather stations

Did high Neo-Tethys subduction rates contribute to early Cenozoic warming?

A 14,000-year record of fire, climate, and vegetation from the Bear River Range, southeast Idaho, USA

Biodiversity trends within the Holocene

Tropical and mid-latitude forcing of continental Antarctic temperatures (open access)

Rapid early Holocene sea-level rise in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

Small glaciers on the Balkan Peninsula: State and changes in the last several years

Satellite-derived changes in the permafrost landscape of central Yakutia, 2000–2011: Wetting, drying, and fires

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation (open access)

Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change

Habitat associations drive species vulnerability to climate change in boreal forests

Mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming over the Tibetan plateau in quadrupled CO2 experiments

The effect of tropical cyclones on climate change engagement

Intercomparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations of the 20th century maximum and minimum temperatures over India and detection of climatic trends

West Nile virus, climate change, and circumpolar vulnerability

Transformational responses to climate change: beyond a systems perspective of social change in mitigation and adaptation (open access)

Climate trends and variability in Ecuador (1966–2011)

Daily precipitation concentration around the world according to several indices

Summer Arctic dipole wind pattern affects the winter Siberian High (open access)

Historical floods in Tabasco and Chiapas during sixteenth–twentieth centuries

Devastation in the Kedarnath (Mandakini) Valley, Garhwal Himalaya, during 16–17 June 2013: a remote sensing and ground-based assessment

Social capital, trust, and adaptation to climate change: Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Russian boreal peatlands dominate the natural European methane budget (open access)

Global assessment of onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, January 11, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 11, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Rapid Anthropogenic Changes in CO2 and pH in the Atlantic Ocean: 2003-2014

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where (open access)

Butterfly community shifts over 2 centuries

Comparison of carbon balances between continuous-cover and clear-cut forestry in Sweden (open access)

Seed predation and climate impacts on reproductive variation in temperate forests of the southeastern USA

Life in the clouds: are tropical montane cloud forests responding to changes in climate?

Morphological and Dietary Responses of Chipmunks to a Century of Climate Change

A century of human-driven changes in the carbon dioxide concentration of lakes

Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7–8 year cycle

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection (open access)

Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration

Why do summer droughts in the Southern Great Plains occur in some La Niña years but not others?

Predictability of winter temperature in China from previous autumn Arctic sea ice (open access)

Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

The phenology of winter rye in Poland: an analysis of long-term experimental data (open access)

A decadally-delayed response of the tropical Pacific to Atlantic multidecadal variability

Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies

The effect of economic growth, oil prices, and the benefits of reactor standardization: Duration of nuclear power plant construction revisited

A multi-dimensional integrated approach to assess flood risks on a coastal city, induced by sea-level rise and storm tides (open access)

Influence of tropical wind on global temperature from months to decades (open access)

How much is the precipitation amount over the tropical coastal region?

Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the Past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications

Rapid thinning of the Welsh Ice Cap at 20–19 ka based on 10Be ages

Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations of the maritime ice cap Høgtuvbreen, northern Norway

Climatic variability during the last millennium in Western Iceland from lake sediment records

Integrating solar energy and climate research into science education (open access)

Structural factors driving boreal forest albedo in Finland

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, January 5, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 5, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:


Climate-sensitive northern lakes and ponds are critical components of methane release

Biased sampling of methane release from northern lakes: A problem for extrapolation

Increased wintertime CO2 loss as a result of sustained tundra warming

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming

Carbon fluxes acclimate more strongly to elevated growth temperatures than to elevated CO2 concentrations in a northern conifer

Gradual and sustained carbon dioxide release during Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a


Quantification of warming climate-induced changes in terrestrial Arctic river ice thickness and phenology

Lake ice phenology from AVHRR data for European lakes: An automated two-step extraction method

Reconciling the discrepancy in ground- and satellite-observed trends in the spring phenology of winter wheat in China from 1993 to 2008

Matching the phenology of Net Ecosystem Exchange and vegetation indices estimated with MODIS and FLUXNET in-situ observations


Shrub-line but not treeline advance matches climate velocity in montane ecosystems of south-central Alaska

Life-stage, not climate change, explains observed tree range shifts

Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

Amplification of El Niño by cloud longwave coupling to atmospheric circulation

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Statistical corruption in Beijing’s air quality data has likely ended in 2012

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

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