AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for March, 2016

New research, March 29, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 29, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Reviews and Syntheses: Ocean acidification and its potential impacts on marine ecosystems (open access)

Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation

The long-term trend in the diurnal temperature range over Asia and its natural and anthropogenic causes

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts (open access)

Eurasian snow cover variability in relation to warming trend and Arctic Oscillation

Spatiotemporal analysis of snow cover variations at mt. Kilimanjaro using multi-temporal Landsat images during 27 years

The snow and the willows: Earlier spring snowmelt reduces performance in the low-lying alpine shrub Salix herbacea

The expansion of Central and Northern European Neolithic populations was associated with a multi-century warm winter and wetter climate

Benefits of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble in reconstructing historical ocean subsurface temperature variations

Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon?

The vertical structure of tropospheric water vapor: comparing radiative and ocean-driven climate changes

A decade of space borne observations of the Arctic atmosphere: novel insights from NASA’s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument (open access)

Trends of mean and extreme temperature indices since 1874 at low-elevation sites in the southern Alps

The immediate and prolonged effects of climate extremes on soil respiration in a mesic grassland

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance

Optimization of a biochemical model with eddy covariance measurements in black spruce forests of Alaska for estimating CO2 fertilization effects

Climatic events inducing die-off in Mediterranean shrublands: are species’ responses related to their functional traits?

Assessing Surface Solar Radiation Fluxes in the CMIP Ensembles

Attenuation coefficient of usable solar radiation of the global oceans

Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble (open access)

Reconstructing global overturning from meridional density gradients

Thermal stratification in simulations of warm climates: A climatology using saturation potential vorticity

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper ocean salinity changes

Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low level jet in a warmer climate

Impacts of vertical structure of convection in global warming: the role of shallow convection

Temperature trends and variability in the Greater Horn of Africa: interactions with precipitation

Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa Land-use vs. rainfall effects on tree cover

US exposure to multiple landscape stressors and climate change

Quality Control Program for Real-Time Hourly Temperature Observation in Taiwan

Depictions of sustainability in children’s books

The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change

Renewable energy policies and competition for biomass: Implications for land use, food prices, and processing industry

Does moving towards renewable energy causes water and land inefficiency? An empirical investigation

Northern Mediterranean climate since the Middle Pleistocene: a 637 ka stable isotope record from Lake Ohrid (Albania/Macedonia) (open access)

Quantitative analysis of ring growth in spruce roots and its application towards a more precise dating

Towards improving the Central Asian dendrochronological network—new data from Tajikistan, Pamir-Alay

Tailored climate indices for climate-proofing operational forestry applications in Sweden and Finland

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, March 23, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 23, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous (open access)

Deciphering ocean carbon in a changing world

Decrease in winter respiration explains 25% of the annual northern forest carbon sink enhancement over the last 30 years

Methane oxidation, biogenic carbon, and the IPCC’s emission metrics. Proposal for a consistent greenhouse-gas accounting

Historical reconstruction of ocean acidification in the Australian region (open access)

Skeletal mineralogy of coral recruits under high temperature and pCO2 (open access)

Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010

Effects of extreme thermal conditions on plasticity in breeding phenology and double-broodedness of Great Tits and Blue Tits in central Poland in 2013 and 2014 (open access)

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long-lived amphibian

Understanding a migratory species in a changing world: climatic effects and demographic declines in the western monarch revealed by four decades of intensive monitoring

The stratospheric pathway for Arctic impacts on mid-latitude climate

Climatic anomalous patterns associated with the Arctic and Polar cell strength variations

Glacier change over the last century, Caucasus Mountains, Georgia, observed from old topographical maps, Landsat and ASTER satellite imagery (open access)

Analysis of the mass balance time series of glaciers in the Italian Alps (open access)

Seasonal atmospheric responses to reduced Arctic sea ice in an ensemble of coupled model simulations

Recent changes in sea ice area flux through the Beaufort Sea during the summer

A high-resolution salinity time series 1993–2012 in the North Atlantic from Argo and altimeter data

Intensity–area–duration analysis of droughts in China 1960–2013

On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties

Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia

Toward consistency between trends in bottom-up CO2 emissions and top-down atmospheric measurements in the Los Angeles megacity (open access)

Accelerated greenhouse gases versus slow insolation forcing induced climate changes in southern South America since the Mid-Holocene

Phase relationships between orbital forcing and the composition of air trapped in Antarctic ice cores (open access)

Unsaturated zone hydrostratigraphies: A novel archive of past climates in dryland continental regions

Coral-reef records of Quaternary changes in climate and sea-level

Here and now, there and then: How “departure dates” influence climate change engagement

Ethiopian agriculture has greater potential for carbon sequestration than previously estimated

The importance of contrail ice formation for mitigating the climate impact of aviation

How might adaptation to climate change by smallholder farming communities contribute to climate change mitigation outcomes? A case study from Timor-Leste, Southeast Asia

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, March 18, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 18, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth’s climate sensitivity

Predictability of the Recent Slowdown and Subsequent Recovery of Large-Scale Surface Warming using Statistical Methods

Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe

Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology

Changing climate and glacio-hydrology in Indian Himalayan Region: a review

Impacts of warm water on Antarctic ice shelf stability through basal channel formation

Modelled glacier dynamics over the last quarter of a century at Jakobshavn Isbræ (open access)

Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle (open access)

Thinning of the Monte Perdido Glacier in the Spanish Pyrenees since 1981 (open access)

Sea-ice melt onset associated with lead opening during the spring/summer transition near the North Pole

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities

Temperature influence on phytoplankton community growth rates

Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink (open access)

Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud fraction

A U.S. based analysis of the ability of the clausius-clapeyron relationship to explain changes in extreme rainfall with changing temperature

The Impact of Groundwater Depletion on Spatial Variations in Sea Level Change During the Past Century

Satellite-based global volcanic SO2 emissions and sulfate direct radiative forcing during 2005-2012

Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models (open access)

Daily personal exposure to black carbon: A pilot study

Paleolimnological records of regime shifts in lakes in response to climate change and anthropogenic activities (open access)

Impact of ocean acidification on phytoplankton assemblage, growth, and DMS production following Fe-dust additions in the NE Pacific high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll waters (open access)

Optimising reef-scale CO2 removal by seaweed to buffer ocean acidification (open access)

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of Holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus

Potential change in forest types and stand heights in central Siberia in a warming climate (open access)

Functional diversity enhances silver fir growth resilience to an extreme drought

Where, why and how? Explaining the low temperature range limits of temperate tree species

Climate drivers of seed production in Picea engelmannii and response to warming temperatures in the southern Rocky Mountains

Impacts of CO2 leakage on plants and microorganisms: A review of results from CO2 release experiments and storage sites

Climate change communication: what can we learn from communication theory?

2 °C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall? (open access)

Carbon tax, emission trading, or the mixed policy: which is the most effective strategy for climate change mitigation in China?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, March 14, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 14, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Robust cloud feedback over tropical land in a warming climate

Cloud–radiation feedback as a leading source of uncertainty in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

Long-term trends of the Polar and Arctic cells influence the Arctic climate since 1989

Nonlinearities in patterns of long term ocean warming

How well would modern-day oceanic property distributions be known with paleoceanographic-like observations?

The sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

The 21st century population-energy-climate nexus

Interpersonal communication about climate change: how messages change when communicated through simulated online social networks

Ice mass loss in Greenland, the Gulf of Alaska, and the Canadian Archipelago: Seasonal cycles and decadal trends

Fluvial supraglacial landscape evolution on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Glacier variations in the Northern Caucasus compared to climatic reconstructions over the past millennium

Reanalysis of long-term series of glaciological and geodetic mass balance for 10 Norwegian glaciers (open access)

Importance of combined winter and summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on September sea ice extent (open access)

Detection of melt onset over the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago sea ice from RADARSAT, 1997–2014

Monitoring ice break-up on the Mackenzie River using MODIS data (open access)

An assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on snow and peak river flows across Britain

Suppression of AMOC variability at increased CO2

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited

The Roles of Radiative Forcing, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Atmospheric and Land Initial Conditions in U.S. Summer Warming Episodes

Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow

Atmospheric methane evolution the last 40 years (open access)

Contribution of oil and natural gas production to renewed increase in atmospheric methane (2007–2014): top–down estimate from ethane and methane column observations (open access)

Attribution of changes in global wetland methane emissions from pre-industrial to present using CLM4.5-BGC (open access)

Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach

Age and climate contribution to observed forest carbon sinks in East Asia (open access)

Variability of projected terrestrial biosphere responses to elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 due to uncertainty in biological nitrogen fixation (open access)

The effects of climate warming on the growth of European beech forests depend critically on thinning strategy and site productivity

Geographical patterns in the radial growth response of Norway spruce provenances to climatic variation

Site- and species-specific treeline responses to climatic variability in eastern Nepal Himalaya

Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate

Vegetation baseline phenology from kilometric global LAI satellite products

Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia

Evidence for divergence of response in Indica, Japonica, and wild rice to high CO2 x temperature interaction

Significant pre-mass extinction animal body-size changes: Evidences from the Permian–Triassic boundary brachiopod faunas of South China

Oceanic redox evolution across the end-Permian mass extinction at Shangsi, South China

The atmospheric partial lifetime of carbon tetrachloride with respect to the global soil sink

Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights and black carbon concentrations in 2090–2099

ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century

Fallacies and fantasies: the theoretical underpinnings of the Coexistence Approach for palaeoclimate reconstruction (open access)

Understanding and responding to danger from climate change: the role of key risks in the IPCC AR5 (open access)

Social acceptance of wind and solar power in the Brazilian electricity system

Socio-climatic hotspots in Brazil: how do changes driven by the new set of IPCC climatic projections affect their relevance for policy?

Climate, history, society over the last millennium in southeast Africa

Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of reservoir operation for malaria control as the climate changes in Ethiopia

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, March 8, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 8, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere (open access)

Time variability of the north-western Mediterranean Sea pH over 1995–2011

A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Emerging trends in heavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes in Switzerland

Trend of monthly temperature and daily extreme temperature during 1951–2012 in New Zealand

Arctic summer warming causes four-fold higher tundra volatile emissions

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

Using Causal Effect Networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of mid-latitude winter circulation

Recent changes in winter Arctic clouds and their relationships with sea ice and atmospheric conditions (open access)

Recent summer sea ice thickness surveys in Fram Strait and associated ice volume fluxes (open access)

The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America

The global carbon budget: a conflicting claims problem

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment (open access)

Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science (open access)

Climatic impacts of stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection (open access)

Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

Saving energy is not easy: An impact assessment of Dutch policy to reduce the energy requirements of buildings

Drivers of changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone between year 2000 and 2100 (open access)

Can we detect a nonlinear response to temperature in European plant phenology?

Response of deciduous trees spring phenology to recent and projected climate change in Central Lithuania

Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species’ responses to climate change

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions (open access)

Vulnerability to climate change and the desire for mitigation

Spirituality and attitudes towards Nature in the Pacific Islands: insights for enabling climate-change adaptation

Beyond special circumstances: climate change policy in Turkey 1992–2015

Carbon reductions and health co-benefits from US residential energy efficiency measures (open access)

Environmental impacts of food trade via resource use and greenhouse gas emissions (open access)

Statistics of regional surface temperatures post year 1900. Long-range versus short-range dependence, and significance of warming trends

Stochastic secular trends in sea level rise

Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity

Variations of the Global Net Air-Sea Heat Flux During the “Hiatus” Period (2001–2010)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, March 4, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 4, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The darkening of the Greenland ice sheet: trends, drivers, and projections (1981–2100) (open access)

Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment

Evaluation of wetland methane emissions across North America using atmospheric data and inverse modeling (open access)

The fossil record of the sixth extinction

Elevated atmospheric [CO2] can dramatically increase wheat yields in semi-arid environments and buffer against heat waves

The effect of low ancient greenhouse climate temperature gradients on the ocean’s overturning circulation (open access)

Can renewable energy power the future?

Increased atmospheric CO2 growth rate during El Niño driven by reduced terrestrial productivity in the CMIP5 ESMs

Development and Analysis of a Long Term, Global, Terrestrial Land Surface Temperature Dataset Based on HIRS Satellite Retrievals

Sources of skill in near-term climate prediction: generating initial conditions

Modelling calving front dynamics using a level-set method: application to Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland (open access)

Impact of sea ice initialisation on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales

On the Observed Relationships between Variability in Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperatures and the Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

11-year Solar Cycle Signal in the NAO and Atlantic / European Blocking

Global water cycle and solar activity variations

Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

Surface energy budget changes over Central Australia during the early 21st century drought

Attribution of annual maximum sea levels to tropical cyclones at the global scale

Lightning in the Mediterranean and its relation with sea-surface temperature (open access)

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy (open access)

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs (open access)

Temperature effects on fish production across a natural thermal gradient (open access)

Drought-survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets (open access)

Are climatic factors responsible for the process of oak decline in Poland?

Interannual variations in spring phenology and their response to climate change across the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2013

An observation-based progression modeling approach to spring and autumn deciduous tree phenology

Phenological response of a key ecosystem function to biological invasion

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

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