AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for April, 2016

New research, April 27, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 27, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Reassessing changes in Diurnal Temperature Range: Intercomparison and evaluation of existing global dataset estimates

Reassessing changes in Diurnal Temperature Range: A new dataset and characterization of data biases

Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models (open access)

Recent global aerosol optical depth variations and trends — A comparative study using MODIS and MISR level 3 datasets

Continuous but diverse advancement of spring-summer phenology in response to climate warming across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

Does Amazonian deforestation cause global effects; can we be sure?

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective

Trait variations of ground flora species disentangle the effects of global change and altered land-use in Swedish forests during 20 years

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions

Why cirrus cloud seeding cannot substantially cool the planet

On the temperature dependence of oceanic export efficiency

Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation get its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

A major increase in winter snowfall during the middle Holocene on western Greenland caused by reduced sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

Oceanic transport of surface meltwater from the southern Greenland ice sheet

Large-scale variation in boreal and temperate forest carbon turnover rate is related to climate

Temperature variability and early clustering of record-breaking events

On the detection of precipitation dependence on temperature

The GEWEX water vapor assessment: Results from intercomparison, trend and homogeneity analysis of total column water vapour

Atlantic Near-Term Climate Variability and the Role of a Resolved Gulf Stream

Anthropogenic forcing on the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate (open access)

A Late Pleistocene sea level stack (open access)

Pollen- and charcoal-based evidence for climatic and human impact on vegetation in the northern edge of Wuyi Mountains, China, during the last 8200 years

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change since the Late Jurassic (150 Ma) derived from a global carbon cycle model

Climate and famines: a historical reassessment

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course, extent, impacts

Climate impacts on the cost of solar energy

Characterization model to assess ocean acidification within life cycle assessment

Land use change and soil carbon sequestration in China: Where does it pay to conserve?

Combining threat and efficacy messaging to increase public engagement with climate change in Beijing, China

UK energy policy – Stuck in ideological limbo?


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New research, April 22, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 22, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The spectroscopic foundation of radiative forcing of climate by carbon dioxide

Changes in Internal Variability Due to Anthropogenic Forcing: A New Field Significance Test

Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

When Can Ocean Acidification Impacts be Detected from Decadal Alkalinity Measurements?

Acidification of East Siberian Arctic Shelf waters through addition of freshwater and terrestrial carbon

Extensive release of methane from Arctic seabed west of Svalbard during summer 2014 does not influence the atmosphere

Changing black carbon transport to the Arctic from present day to the end of 21st century

The effect of a permafrost disturbance on growing-season carbon-dioxide fluxes in a high Arctic tundra ecosystem (open access)

Multi-year greenhouse gas balances at a rewetted temperate peatland

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau

Velocity of density shifts in Finnish landbird species depends on their migration ecology and body mass

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

Cheatgrass is favored by warming but not CO2 enrichment in a semi-arid grassland

Vertical heat flux in the ocean: Estimates from observations and from a coupled general circulation model

Decadal-scale thermohaline variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

On the link between Barents-Kara sea-ice variability and European blocking

Sea ice circulation around the Beaufort Gyre: The changing role of wind forcing and the sea ice state

Non-annular response of sea ice cover in the Indian sector of the Antarctic during extreme SAM events

Seasonal trends of Amazonian rainforest phenology, net primary productivity, and carbon allocation

Terrestrial Water Flux Responses to Global Warming in Tropical Rainforest Areas (open access)

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

Five centuries of U.S. West Coast drought: Occurrence, spatial distribution, and associated atmospheric circulation patterns

Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains

The realization of extreme tornadic storm events under future anthropogenic climate change

Transitions in climate and energy discourse between Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy

Robust Strengthening and Westward Shift of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation during 1979–2012: A Comparison of 7 Sets of Reanalysis Data and 26 CMIP5 Models

Interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate: roles of precipitation and temperature (open access)

Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations

Climate change and ecosystems dynamics over the last 6000 years in the Middle Atlas, Morocco (open access)

Acropora inter – branch skeleton Sr/Ca ratios — evaluation of a potential new high resolution paleothermometer

Grape harvest dates as indicator of spring-summer mean maxima temperature variations in the Minho region (NW Portugal) since the 19th century

Lagged Response of Tropical Tropospheric Temperature to Solar Ultraviolet Variations on Intraseasonal Timescales

Coastal and riverine ecosystems as adaptive flood defenses under a changing climate

Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?

A framework for collaborative climate change research

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New research, April 18, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 18, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period

Stratospheric temperature trends over 1979-2015 derived from combined SSU, MLS and SABER satellite observations

Impact of the Antarctic Ozone Hole on the Vertical Coupling of the Stratosphere-Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere System

Assessing the skill and value of seasonal thermal stress forecasts for coral bleaching risk in the Western Pacific

Coral bleaching response index: a new tool to standardize and compare susceptibility to thermal bleaching

Global Water Vapor Trend from 1988-2011 and its Diurnal Asymmetry Based on GPS, Radiosonde and Microwave Satellite Measurements

Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

Climate responses to volcanic eruptions assessed from observations and CMIP5 multi-models

Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages

Sea ice production variability in Antarctic coastal polynyas

Dynamical link between the Barents-Kara Sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Persistent high temperature and low precipitation reduce peat carbon accumulation

Staying cool in a changing landscape: the influence of maximum daily ambient temperature on grizzly bear habitat selection

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change? (open access)

Distribution of skates and sharks in the North Sea: 112 years of change

Pattern of xylem phenology in conifers of cold ecosystems at the northern hemisphere

Earlier onset of the spring fine dust season in the southwestern United States

A Comparison of Temperature Data from Automated and Manual Observing Networks in Georgia and Impacts of Siting Characteristics

Quantification of the effect of water temperature on the fall rate of eXpendable BathyThermographs

Importance of coastal primary production in the northern Baltic Sea

Core Concept: Are we in the “Anthropocene”?

Using Scientific Conferences to Engage the Public on Climate Change (open access)

How to deal with the rebound effect? A policy-oriented approach

Estimating willingness to pay for renewable energy in South Korea using the contingent valuation method

The effect of policy incentives on electric vehicle adoption

Carbon profiles of remote Australian Indigenous communities: A base for opportunities

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New research, April 13, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 14, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Significant implications of permafrost thawing for climate change control (open access)

Sensitivity of Global Upper Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies

Large-scale ocean circulation-cloud interactions reduce the pace of transient climate change

Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton

Trends and Extremes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Characteristics

Continuous monitoring of coastline dynamics in western Florida with a 30-year time series of Landsat imagery

Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities

Effects of diurnal temperature range and drought on wheat yield in Spain

Spatial and temporal changes in desertification in the southern region of the Tengger Desert from 1973 to 2009

Seedling transplants reveal species-specific responses of high-elevation tropical treeline trees to climate change

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

Improving Rainfall Measurement in Gauge Poor Regions Thanks to Mobile Telecommunication Networks

Uncertainty in Gridded CO2 Emissions Estimates (open access)

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in upper air climate variables

Global distribution of deep convection reaching tropopause in one-year GPM observations

Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach (open access)

Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

The impact of global aviation NOx emissions on tropospheric composition changes from 2005 to 2011

Environmental Impact assessment of a semi-intensive beef cattle production in Brazil’s Northeast

Life cycle assessment of renewable diesel production from lignocellulosic biomass

Cycling of Black Carbon in the Ocean

The Causes of Foehn Warming in the Lee of Mountains (open access)

Palaeo-sea-level and palaeo-ice-sheet databases: problems, strategies, and perspectives (open access)

50,000 years of vegetation and climate change in the southern Namib Desert, Pella, South Africa

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New research, April 8, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 8, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Changing temperature response of respiration turns boreal forest from carbon sink into carbon source

The overlooked tropical oceanic CO2 sink

Holocene thermokarst sediments of the Yedoma permafrost region do not increase the northern peatland carbon pool (open access)

A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution

An Initial Study on Climate Change Fingerprinting Using the Reflected Solar Spectra

The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

Stratospheric ozone chemistry feedbacks are not critical for the determination of climate sensitivity in CESM1(WACCM)

On the abruptness of Bølling-Allerød warming

Review on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau during the last half century

Will the Tibetan Plateau warming depend on elevation in the future?

Latitudinal variation in herbivory: hemispheric asymmetries and the role of climatic drivers

Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

Review: advances in in situ and satellite phenological observations in Japan (open access)

Uncertainty in predicting range dynamics of endemic alpine plants under climate warming

The necessity of cloud feedback for a basin-scale Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Variability of water vapour in the Arctic stratosphere (open access)

Rapid variability of Antarctic Bottom Water transport into the Pacific Ocean inferred from GRACE

Reduced spatial extent of extreme storms at higher temperatures

A robust but spurious pattern of climate change in model projections over the tropical Indian Ocean

Global climate impacts of fixing the Southern Ocean shortwave radiation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

The effect of temperature and moisture on trace gas emissions from deciduous and coniferous leaf litter

Rapid N2O fluxes at high level of nitrate nitrogen addition during freeze-thaw events in boreal peatlands of Northeast China

Integrating Field and Climate Data for Nitrogen Risk Management

Revisiting carbonate chemistry controls on planktic foraminifera Mg /  Ca: implications for sea surface temperature and hydrology shifts over the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum and Eocene–Oligocene transition (open access)

Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature

New gridded daily climatology of Finland – permutation-based uncertainty estimates and temporal trends in climate

Local and regional variability in snow conditions in northern Finland: A reindeer herding perspective

Carbon emission intensity in electricity production: A global analysis

Reflections on climate change communication research and practice in the second decade of the 21st century: What more is there to say?

Making Climate Data Sing: Using Music-like Sonifications to Convey A Key Climate Record (open access)

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New research, April 5, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 5, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings

Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet explained by Iceland hotspot history

Variable relationship between accumulation and temperature in West Antarctica for the past 31,000 years

Tundra permafrost thaw causes significant shifts in energy partitioning (open access)

Large increases in Arctic biogenic volatile emissions are a direct effect of warming

Gross primary production controls the subsequent winter CO2 exchange in a boreal peatland

Plant species diversity affects soil–atmosphere fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide

Compensation between meridional flow components of the Atlantic MOC at 26° N (open access)

Evaluating simulated fraction of attributable risk using climate observations

Understanding the joint behavior of temperature and precipitation for climate change impact studies

Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Temporal and spatial variations of high-impact weather events in China during 1959–2014

Contribution of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water to the abnormal cooling of Sea Surface Temperature in the summer of 2011

The downside risk of climate change in California’s Central Valley agricultural sector

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change in semi-arid Borena, Ethiopia (open access)

Climate change adaptation and mitigation in smallholder crop–livestock systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a call for integrated impact assessments (open access)

Oxidative responsiveness to multiple stressors in the key Antarctic species, Adamussium colbecki: interactions between temperature, acidification and cadmium exposure

Evaluating planktonic diatom response to climate change across three lakes with differing morphometry

The predictive skill of species distribution models for plankton in a changing climate

Direct and indirect effects of glaciers on aquatic biodiversity in high Andean peatlands

Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication

Direct measurements of air-sea CO2 exchange over a coral reef

A Lagrangian description on the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport changes associated with the stratospheric water drop around the year 2000 (open access)

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales (open access)

Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change (open access)

A global surface drifter data set at hourly resolution

Earth’s albedo variations 1998-2014 as measured from ground-based earthshine observations

Unveiling the multiscale teleconnection between Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global surface temperature using time-dependent intrinsic correlation analysis

Life cycle assessment of heat production from underground coal gasification (open access)

Sharing the emission reduction burden in an uneven world

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New research, April 1, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 1, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Warming of the global ocean: spatial structure and water-mass trends

Arctic amplification enhanced by latent energy transport of atmospheric planetary waves

Atmospheric response to the autumn sea-ice free Arctic and its detectability (open access)

Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low (open access)

Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth’s climate

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change (open access)

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCPs scenarios in southern China

Atmospheric constraints on the methane emissions from the East Siberian Shelf (open access)

High emissions of greenhouse gases from grasslands on peat and other organic soils

Sampling biases in CMIP5 decadal forecasts

Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers

Assessing the impact of satellite-based observations in sea surface temperature trends

Accumulation Variability in the Antarctic Peninsula: The Role of Large-Scale Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Interactions

Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability

Stratospheric ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality (open access)

Highly significant responses to anthropogenic forcings of the midlatitude jet in the Southern Hemisphere

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland (open access)

South Pacific hydrologic and cyclone variability during the last 3,000 years

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation regimes during 1961–2010 and possible teleconnections with climate indices across China

North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations

Historical trends in precipitation, temperature and drought in the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa and Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint river basins

The role of heating, winds, and topography on sea level changes in the North Atlantic

On the secular trend of COx and CO2 in the lower thermosphere

From pole to pole: the potential for the Arctic seastar Asterias amurensis to invade a warming Southern Ocean

Northward expansion of paddy rice in northeastern Asia during 2000-2014

Limited effect of ozone reductions on the 20-year photosynthesis trend at Harvard forest

Climate response of cork growth in the Mediterranean oak (Quercus suber L.) woodlands of southwestern Portugal

Carbon cycle history through the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary: A new global δ13C stack

Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data

A comparison of five high-resolution spatially-explicit, fossil-fuel, carbon dioxide emission inventories for the United States

Don’t you wish that at least some of this would be an april fools joke?

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