AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Extreme weather

Papers from New research stream


High-income does not protect against hurricane losses (Geiger et al. 2016)

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events (Horton et al. 2016)

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets (Chang & Yau, 2016)

Landslides in a changing climate (Gariano & Guzzetti, 2016)

An interdecadal shift in the number of hot nights around 1997 over Eastern China (Chen et al. 2016)

Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s (Mei & Xie, 2016)

Increased drought and pluvial risk over California due to changing oceanic conditions (Kam & Sheffield, 2016)

Comparing hurricane and extratropical storm surge for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of the United States for 1979–2013 (Booth et al. 2016)

Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change (Shaw et al. 2016)

Can reanalysis datasets describe the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over China? (Zhu et al. 2016)

Exceptionally extreme drought in Madeira Archipelago in 2012: Vegetation impacts and driving conditions (Liberato et al. 2016)

An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events (Angélil et al. 2016)

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity (Balaguru et al. 2016)

Evaluation of downscaled wind speeds and parameterised gusts for recent and historical windstorms in Switzerland (Stucki et al. 2016)

The Record-Breaking 2015 Hurricane Season in the eastern North Pacific: An Analysis of Environmental Conditions (Collins et al. 2016)

Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble (Ahmadalipour et al. 2016)

Compounding factors causing the unusual absence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during August 2014 (Hong et al. 2016)

Synoptic climatology of the early 21st century drought in the Colorado River Basin and relationships to reservoir water levels (Kirk et al. 2016)

The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest (Coats & Mankin, 2016)

Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult? (Emanuel, 2016)

A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions (You et al. 2016)

Diagnosing United States hurricane landfall risk: An alternative to count-based methodologies (Staehling & Truchelut, 2016)

Spatial and temporal analysis of the drought vulnerability and risks over eight decades in a semi-arid region (Tensift basin: Morocco) (Fniguire et al. 2016)

Distinct weekly cycles of thunderstorms and a potential connection with aerosol type in China (Yang et al. 2016)

Trends and variability in droughts in the Pacific Islands and northeast Australia (McGree et al. 2016)

Spatial and temporal variations of blowing dust events in the Taklimakan Desert (Yang et al. 2016)

My Drought is Different from Your Drought: A Case Study of the Policy Implications of Multiple Ways of Knowing Drought (Kohl & Knox, 2016)

Selected physical parameters as determinants of flood fatalities in Bangladesh, 1972–2013 (Paul et al. 2016)

Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave (Duchez et al. 2016)

Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa (Karnauskas & Li, 2016)

Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves (Argüeso et al. 2016)

A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia (Barlow et al. 2016)

Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions (Woldemeskel & Sharma, 2016)

The evolution of temperature extremes in the Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec, Canada (1974–2013) (Fortin et al. 2016)

On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events (Zorzetto et al. 2016)

Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran (Modarres, Sarhadi & Burn, 2016)

An integrated analysis of the March 2015 Atacama floods (Wilcox et al. 2016)

Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2 (Camargo et al. 2016)

Trends and variability in extremes of precipitation in Curitiba – Southern Brazil (Pedron et al. 2016)

North Atlantic Storm Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences (Ciasto et al. 2016)

Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia (Supari et al. 2016)

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity (Schubert et al. 2016)

A Situation-based Analysis of Flash Flood Fatalities in the United States (Terti et al. 2016)

Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil (Oliveira et al. 2016)

Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States? (Jung & Kirtman, 2016)

Does population affect the location of flash flood reports? (Marjerison et al. 2016)

The Physics of Drought in the U.S. Central Great Plains (Livneh & Hoerling, 2016)

Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast (Pattanaik et al. 2016)

Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives (Teufel et al. 2016)

Revisiting Extreme Storms of the Past 100 Years for Future Safety of Large Water Management Infrastructures (open access)

Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades

On Cold Spells in North America and Storminess in Western Europe

Changes of storm properties in the United States: Observations and multimodel ensemble projections

A review of severe thunderstorms in Australia

Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course, extent, impacts

The realization of extreme tornadic storm events under future anthropogenic climate change

Reduced spatial extent of extreme storms at higher temperatures

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter windstorms in Switzerland (open access)

Interviews of Mongolian herders and high resolution precipitation data reveal an increase in short heavy rains and thunderstorm activity in semi-arid Mongolia (open access)

Enhancement of Arctic storm activity in relation to permafrost degradation in eastern Siberia

Detection of trends in days with thunderstorms in Iran over the past five decades

What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

A multi-dimensional integrated approach to assess flood risks on a coastal city, induced by sea-level rise and storm tides (open access)

Anthropogenic influence on the frequency of extreme temperatures in China

The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts

Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs (open access)

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes (open access)

Detection of anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme temperatures in China

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective

Simulating the extreme 2013/14 winter in a future climate

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Sensitivities of Extreme Precipitation to Global Warming Are Lower over Mountains than over Oceans and Plains

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities

Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation regimes during 1961–2010 and possible teleconnections with climate indices across China

North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations

A U.S. based analysis of the ability of the clausius-clapeyron relationship to explain changes in extreme rainfall with changing temperature

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Emerging trends in heavy precipitation and hot temperature extremes in Switzerland

The influence of atmospheric blocking on extreme winter minimum temperatures in North America

Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields (open access)

Quantile-based Bias Correction and Uncertainty Quantification of Extreme Event Attribution Statements

A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution (open access)

Unreliable climate simulations overestimate attributable risk of extreme weather and climate events

Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region

What caused the spring intensification and winter demise of the 2011 drought over Texas?

Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation (open access)

Stochastic and anthropogenic influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian spring of 2013 and 2014

Frequency of marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and North Pacific since 1950

Spatial and temporal features of summer extreme temperature over China during 1960–2013

Detection and Attribution of Climate Extremes in the Observed Record

BAMS special supplement: Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective (open access)

Role of ocean evaporation in California droughts and floods

Variability of Tornado Occurrence over the Continental United States since 1950

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought in the Continental U.S. during the Past Century

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

Impacts of drought and responses of rural populations in West Africa: a systematic review

Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Impacts of the superimposed climate trends on droughts over 1961–2013 in Xinjiang, China

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

Five centuries of U.S. West Coast drought: Occurrence, spatial distribution, and associated atmospheric circulation patterns

Transitions in climate and energy discourse between Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy

Intensity–area–duration analysis of droughts in China 1960–2013

Surface energy budget changes over Central Australia during the early 21st century drought

Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

Role of Soil Moisture vs. Recent Climate Change for the 2010 Heat Wave in Western Russia

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

Why do summer droughts in the Southern Great Plains occur in some La Niña years but not others?

Natural hazards in Australia: floods

Coastal and riverine ecosystems as adaptive flood defenses under a changing climate

Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales (open access)

Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 northern India flood

Historical floods in Tabasco and Chiapas during sixteenth–twentieth centuries

The influence of soil moisture deficits on Australian heatwaves (open access)

Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves

Spatial Redistribution of USA Tornado Activity between 1954 and 2013

Modeling financial losses resulting from tornadoes in European countries

Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets

Older papers


Extreme climatic events over Vietnam from ­observational data and RegCM3 projections (Ho et al. 2012)
Historical perspective of drought response in central-southern Italy (Diodato & Bellocchi, 2012)
Change in climatic extremes over mainland China based on an integrated extreme climate index (Ren et al. 2012)
Change in extreme temperature event frequency over mainland China, 1961−2008 (Zhou & Ren, 2012)
Historical analogues of the 2008 extreme snow event over Central and Southern China (Hao et al. 2012)
Changes in precipitation extremes over Eastern China simulated by the Beijing Climate Center ­Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.0) (Zhang et al. 2012)
European drought regimes under mitigated and unmitigated climate change: application of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) (Warren et al. 2012)
Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey (Sen et al. 2012)
Wintertime circulation types over the Iberian Peninsula: long-term variability and relationships with weather extremes (Fernández-Montes et al. 2012)
Climatology of cyclones with a southern origin, and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Estonia (Mändla et al. 2012)


Extreme winter precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula in 2010: anomalies, driving mechanisms and future projections (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2011)
Stochastic modeling of hot weather spells and their characteristics (Khaliq et al. 2011)
Coastal erosion caused by the heavy storm surge of November 2004 in the southern Baltic Sea (Łabuz & Kowalewska-Kalkowska, 2011)
Evolution of extreme temperatures over Portugal: recent changes and future scenarios (Ramos et al. 2011)
Effects of warming processes on droughts and water resources in the NW Iberian ­Peninsula (1930−2006) (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2011)


Dust storm frequency after the 1999 drought in the Sistan region, Iran (Miri et al. 2010)
Extreme wind climatology of winter storms in Germany (Hofherr & Kunz, 2010)
Natural disasters in northwestern China, AD 1270-1949 (Lee & Zhang, 2010)
European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations (Donat et al. 2010)
Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model (Yang et al. 2010)
Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive (Terry & Gienko, 2010)
Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves (Furrer et al. 2010)
Benefits and limitations of regional multi-model ensembles for storm loss estimations (Donat et al. 2010)


United States drought of 2007: historical perspectives (Maxwell & Soulé, 2009)
Analysis of the 1998 to 2005 drought over the northeastern highlands of Tanzania (Kijazi & Reason, 2009)
Investigation of Hurricane Katrina characteristics for future, warmer climates (Lynn et al. 2009)
Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: an application of FUND (Narita et al. 2009)
Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia (Hasson et al. 2009)
Changes in frequency of Baltic Sea cyclones and their relationships with NAO and climate in Estonia (Sepp 2009)
Storm surges in the Odra mouth area during the 1997–2006 decade (Kowalewska-Kalkowska & Wisniewski 2009)
Adaptation to floods and droughts in the Baltic Sea basin under climate change (Kundzewicz 2009)


Regional climate model simulations of North Atlantic cyclones: frequency and intensity changes (Semmler et al. 2008)
Changes in storminess on the western coast of Estonia in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation (Jaagus et al. 2008)
Nature and causes of the 2002 to 2004 drought in the southwestern United States compared with the historic 1953 to 1957 drought (Quiring & Goodrich, 2008)
Heat waves across Europe by the end of the 21st century: multiregional climate simulations (Koffi & Koffi, 2008)


Frequency and severity of drought in the Lake Victoria region (Kenya) and its effects on food security (Awange et al. 2007)
Historical comparison of the 2001/2002 drought in the Canadian Prairies (Bonsal & Regier, 2007)
Regional growth curves and improved design value estimates of extreme precipitation events in the Czech Republic (Kysely & Picek, 2007)
Historical changes in extreme precipitation events in the tropical Pacific region (Greene et al. 2007)
Novel methods for inferring future changes in extreme rainfall over Northern Europe (Benestad, 2007)
Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator (Semenov, 2007)


Temperature extremes in Europe and wintertime large-scale atmospheric circulation: HadCM3 future scenarios (Santos & Corte-Real, 2006)
Non-linear regional relationships between climate extremes and annual mean temperatures in model projections for 1961-2099 over Europe (Good et al. 2006)
Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe (Kundzewicz et al. 2006)
Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales (Leckebusch et al. 2006)
Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters (Suursaar et al. 2006)


Typhoons in the Philippine Islands, 1901-1934 (Ribera et al. 2005)
Classification of synoptic patterns in the western Arctic associated with extreme events at Barrow, Alaska, USA (Cassano et al. 2005)
Cloud-to-ground flash patterns for Atlanta, Georgia (USA) from 1992 to 2003 (Stallins et al. 2005)
Circulation types and extreme temperature changes in Greece (Maheras et al. 2005)
Analysis of consecutive droughts on the Canadian Prairies (Chipanshi et al. 2005)


drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain) (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2004)
Diurnal cycle of rainfall and surface winds and the mid-summer drought of Mexico/Central America (Curtis, 2004)
Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia (Meze-Hausken, 2004)
Tropical cyclones and climate change: unresolved issues (Walsh, 2004)
Hydraulic aspects of environmental flood management in boreal conditions (Helmiö & Järvelä 2004)
Effects of an extreme precipitation event on water chemistry and phytoplankton in the Swedish Lake Mälaren (Weyhenmeyer et al. 2004)


Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the northern North Atlantic (Debernard et al. 2003)
Understanding relationships between the 1998 Yangtze River flood and northeast Eurasian blocking (Samel & Liang, 2003)
A procedure for estimating wind waves and storm-surge climate scenarios in a regional basin: the Adriatic Sea case (Lionello et al. 2003)
Tornado hazards in the United States (Boruff et al. 2003)
A 15 yr climatology of derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems over the central and eastern United States (Bentley & Sparks, 2003)
Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico (Cavazos & Rivas, 2003)


When deserts flood: risk management and climatic processes among East African pastoralists (Little et al. 2002)
Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century (Frich et al. 2002)
Macroeconomic effects of weather shocks, 1870-1913 (Solomou & Wu, 2002)
Interannual variability of the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall over Central America and tropical storm activity in the far-eastern Pacific (Curtis, 2002)
Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: the present and the doubled CO2 climate scenarios (Lionello et al. 2002)
Drought analysis based on a cluster Poisson model: distribution of the most severe drought (Abaurrea & Cebrián, 2002)


Characteristics of storm surges in German estuaries (Plüß et al. 2001)


Observed warming in cold anticyclones (Michaels et al. 2000)
Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set (Alexandersson et al. 2000)
Impact of climate change on a landslide in South East France, simulated using different GCM scenarios and downscaling methods for local precipitation (Buma & Dehn, 2000)
Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment (Knippertz et al. 2000)


Application of an analog downscaling technique to the assessment of future landslide activity-a case study in the Italian Alps (Dehn, 1999)


Changing storminess? An analysis of long-term sea level data sets (Bijl et al. 1998)


Extreme temperature days in the south-central United States (Henderson & Muller, 1997)
Sensitivity of storm waves in Montevideo (Uruguay) to a hypothetical climate change (Lorenzo & Teixeira, 1997)


Severe rainstorms in the Vidarbha subdivision of Maharashtra State, India (Kulkarni & Nandargi, 1996)


Short- to long-term trends in hydrologic drought conditions in the contiguous United States (Soulé & Yin, 1995)



Tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Basin, 1960-1989 (Vega & Binkley, 1993)




Spatial patterns of multiple drought types in the contiguous United States: a seasonal comparison (Soulé, 1990)
Influence of glaze ice storms on growth rates of loblolly pine Pinus taeda and shortleaf pine Pinus echinata in the Southern Appalachian Piedmont (Travis & Meentemeyer, 1990)

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