AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Models & projections

Papers from New research stream


Spatial patterns and frequency of unforced decadal-scale changes in global mean surface temperature in climate models

Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction

CMIP5 scientific gaps and recommendations for CMIP6 (Stouffer et al. 2016)

Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know? (Fosser et al. 2016)

Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models (Franzke et al. 2016)

The Impact of SST Biases on Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Greater Role for Atmosphere-only Models? (He & Soden, 2016)

The art and science of climate model tuning (Hourdin et al. 2016)

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States (Ashfaq et al. 2016)

Twentieth century temperature trends in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CESM-LE climate simulations – spatial-temporal uncertainties, differences and their potential sources (Kumar et al. 2016)

Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR4 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula (Almazroui et al. 2016)

The influence of model resolution on temperature variability (Klavans et al. 2016)

Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA (Slater et al. 2016)

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections (Alexander et al. 2016)

Effects of southeastern Pacific sea surface temperature on the double-ITCZ bias in NCAR CESM1 (Song & Zhang, 2016)

Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models (Berner et al. 2016)

Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change? (Kendon et al. 2016)

MiKlip – a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction (Marotzke et al. 2016)

Older papers:




Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO (Mironov et al. 2010)
Coupling of the FLake model to the Surfex externalized surface model (Salgado & Le Moigne 2010)
Coupling the 1-D lake model FLake to the community land-surface model JULES (Rooney & Jones 2010)




FinROSE — middle atmospheric chemistry transport model (Damski et al. 2007)


Regional climate simulations for the Barents Sea region (Keup-Thiel et al. 2006)



FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century (Carter et al. 2004)
Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland (Kaivo-oja et al. 2004)
Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century (Jylhä et al. 2004)



The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO (Döscher et al. 2002)
A numerical study using the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the PIDCAP period (Lorant et al. 2002)
Validation of HIRLAM boundary-layer structures over the Baltic Sea (Pirazzini et al. 2002)
Cluster analysis results of regional climate model simulations in the PIDCAP period (Kücken et al. 2002)
Large-Eddy-Simulation of an off-ice airflow during BASIS (Etling et al. 2002)
Marine boundary-layer height estimated from the HIRLAM model (Gryning & Batchvarova 2002)













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