AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming


Papers from New research stream


Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data (Santer et al. 2016)

Deep and Abyssal Ocean Warming from 35 years of Repeat Hydrography (Desbruyères et al. 2016)

The contribution of greenhouse gases to the recent slowdown in global-mean temperature trends (Checa-Garcia et al. 2016)

The Stancari air thermometer and the 1715–1737 record in Bologna, Italy (Camuffo et al. 2016)

Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic sea-ice loss (McCusker et al. 2016)

New method of estimating temperatures near the mesopause region using meteor radar observations (Lee et al. 2016)

Estimated influence of urbanization on surface warming in Eastern China using time-varying land use data (Liao et al. 2016)

The influence of winter and summer atmospheric circulation on the variability of temperature and sea ice around Greenland (Ogi et al. 2016)

A cold and fresh ocean surface in the Nordic Seas during MIS 11: Significance for the future ocean (Kandiano et al. 2016)

Observed and projected sea surface temperature seasonal changes in the Western English Channel from satellite data and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (L’Hévéder et al. 2016)

Historical ocean reanalyses (1900–2010) using different data assimilation strategies (Yang et al. 2016)

Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015-2016 (Cullather et al. 2016)

The influence of synoptic circulations and local processes on temperature anomalies at three French observatories (Dione et al. 2016)

Ocean atmosphere thermal decoupling in the eastern equatorial Indian ocean (Joseph et al. 2016)

Changes of the time-varying percentiles of daily extreme temperature in China (Li et al. 2016)

High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the wind-driven coastal warm bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic (Milinski et al. 2016)

Effects of Natural Variability of Seawater Temperature, Time Series Length, Decadal Trend and Instrument Precision on the Ability to Detect Temperature Trends (Schlegel & Smit, 2016)

Interhemispheric SST gradient trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the recent global warming hiatus (Dong & McPhaden, 2016)

Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations (Donat et al. 2016)

Atmospheric structure favoring high sea surface temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific (Wirasatriya et al. 2016)

Spatial and temporal changes in daily temperature extremes in China during 1960–2011 (Shen et al. 2016)

Disaggregation of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature: A New Dynamic Methodology (Zhan et al. 2016)

Impact of high-resolution sea surface temperature and urban data on estimations of surface air temperature in a regional climate (Adachi et al. 2016)

Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean (Benas et al. 2016)

Impacts of urbanization on summer climate in China: An assessment with coupled land-atmospheric modeling (Cao et al. 2016)

The impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on land surface temperature in southwestern Romania (Roşca et al. 2016)

Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005 (Cheng et al. 2016)

Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability (Peyser et al. 2016)

Contrasting effects of urbanization and agriculture on surface temperature in eastern China (Zhou et al. 2016)

A summer temperature bias in early alcohol thermometers (Camuffo & Valle, 2016)

The phenology of Arctic Ocean Surface warming (Steele & Dickinson, 2016)

Comparisons of time series of annual mean surface air temperature for China since the 1900s: Observations, model simulations and extended reanalysis (Li et al. 2016)

First ground-based observations of mesopause temperatures above the Eastern-Mediterranean Part I: Multi-day oscillations and tides (Silber et al. 2016)

An enhanced single-channel algorithm for retrieving land surface temperature from Landsat series data (Wang et al. 2016)

Observed changes of temperature extremes in Serbia over the period 1961 − 2010 (Ruml et al. 2016)

The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013 (Muslih & Błażejczyk, 2016)

A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes (Dittus et al. 2016)

Changes in wind speed under heat waves enhance urban heat islands in Beijing metropolitan area (Li et al. 2016)

Regional differential behaviour of maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula regarding the Summer NAO in the second half of the twentieth century (Favà et al. 2016)

Confidence intervals for time averages in the presence of long range correlations, a case study on earth surface temperature anomalies (Massah & Kantz, 2016)

An ensemble of ocean reanalyses for 1815–2013 with sparse observational input (Giese et al. 2016)

Arctic-North Pacific coupled impacts on the late autumn cold in North America (Sung et al. 2016)

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain (Moratiel et al. 2016)

Insights into elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model simulations (Palazzi et al. 2016)

Spatial variations in temperature in a mountainous region of Jeju Island, South Korea (Um & Kim, 2016)

Gap filling and homogenization of climatological datasets in the headwater region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia (Woldesenbet et al. 2016)

A homogenized long-term temperature record for the Western Cape Province in South Africa: 1916–2013 (Lakhraj-Govender et al. 2016)

Inter-model diversity of Arctic amplification caused by global warming and its relationship with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in CMIP5 climate models (Yim et al. 2016)

Urban–rural differences in near-surface air temperature as resolved by the Central Europe Refined analysis (CER): sensitivity to planetary boundary layer schemes and urban canopy models (Jänicke et al. 2016)

Monotonic Decrease of the Zonal SST Gradient of the Equatorial Pacific as a Function of CO2 Concentration in CCSM3 and CCSM4 (Yang et al. 2016)

Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence (Crimp et al. 2016)

Surface temperature trends from homogenized time series in South Africa: 1931–2015 (Kruger & Nxumalo, 2016)

Investigations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and oscillations over sub-tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Sharma et al. 2016)

Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole (Singh et al. 2016)

Use of remotely-sensed land surface temperature as a proxy for air temperatures at high elevations: Findings from a 5000 metre elevational transect across Kilimanjaro (Pepin et al. 2016)

Spatial distribution of temperature trends and extremes over Maharashtra and Karnataka States of India (Dhorde et al. 2016)

Assessing atmospheric temperature data sets for climate studies (Cederlöf et al. 2016)

Ocean heat uptake and interbasin transport of passive and redistributive surface heating (Garuba & Klinger, 2016)

Temperature and precipitation regional climate series over the central Pyrenees during 1910–2013 (Pérez-Zanón et al. 2016)

The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate (Sévellec, Sinha & Skliris, 2016)

Underestimated warming of northern Canada in the Berkeley Earth temperature product (Way, Oliva & Viau, 2016)

Revisiting whether recent surface temperature trends agree with the CMIP5 ensemble (Lin & Huybers, 2016)

Climate change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, during the last 50 years from meteorological observations (Marshall, Vignols & Rees, 2016)

Water temperature increases in the river Rhine in response to climate change (Hardenbicker et al. 2016)

Assessing the uncertainty of CESM-LE in simulating the trends of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over China (Li, Zhu & Dong, 2016)

Reconciling Observed and Modelled Temperature and Precipitation Trends over Europe by Adjusting for Circulation Variability (Saffioti et al. 2016)

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969–2005 (Chakraborty et al. 2016)

Sudden stratospheric warmings observed in the last decade by satellite measurements (Kishore et al. 2016)

Longitudinal Asymmetric Trends of Tropical Cold-point Tropopause Temperature and Their Link to Strengthened Walker Circulation (Hu et al. 2016)

An in situ-based analysis of the relationship between land surface ‘skin’ and screen-level air temperatures (Good, 2016)

Spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature trends throughout the Brazilian Legal Amazon, 1973–2013 (Almeida et al. 2016)

Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria (Fuwape et al. 2016)

Homogenisation of temperature and precipitation time series with ACMANT3: method description and efficiency tests (Domonkos & Coll, 2016)

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming (Kosaka & Xie, 2016)

The changing shape of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature distributions (McKinnon et al. 2016)

Future Decreases in Freezing Days Across North America (Rawlins et al. 2016)

Arctic warming, moisture increase and circulation changes observed in the Ny-Ålesund homogenized radiosonde record (Maturilli & Kayser, 2016)

Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: recent trends and an update to 2013 (Feidas, 2016)

Urban Heat Island traverses in the City of Adelaide, South Australia (Clay et al. 2016)

Recent Extreme Arctic Temperatures are due to a Split Polar Vortex (Overland & Wang, 2016)

Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends (Chikamoto et al. 2016)

Consistent land surface temperature data generation from irregularly spaced Landsat imagery (Fu & Weng, 2016)

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969–2012) (Kumar et al. 2016)

Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models (Smith & Polvani, 2016)

From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries (Murray & Heggie, 2016)

From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China (Xie, Huang & Liu, 2016)

Weekly cycles in peak time temperatures and urban heat island intensity (Earl, Simmonds & Tapper, 2016)

Radiative and Dynamical Influences on Polar Stratospheric Temperature Trends (Ivy, Solomon & Rieder, 2016)

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

Can significant trends be detected in surface air temperature and precipitation over South America in recent decades?

Stratospheric Temperature Climate Data Record from Merged SSU and AMSU-A Observations

Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China

Surface air temperature variability and trends in the Arctic: new amplification assessment and regionalisation (open access)

Spatiotemporal investigation of long-term seasonal temperature variability in Libya

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

Multiscale evolution of surface air temperature in the arid region of Northwest China and its linkages to ocean oscillations

Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7–8 year cycle

Statistics of regional surface temperatures post year 1900. Long-range versus short-range dependence, and significance of warming trends

What Caused the Recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” Trend Pattern in Winter Temperatures?

Older papers


Floristic mapping data as a proxy for the mean urban heat island (Bechtel & Schmidt, 2012)
Detection of recent climate change using daily ­temperature extremes in Khorasan Province, Iran (Sanjani et al. 2012)
Dynamical downscaling of rainfall and temperature over the Arabian Peninsula using RegCM4 (Almazroui, 2012)
Simulation of temperature and precipitation ­climatology for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using RegCM 4.0 (Ozturk et al. 2012)
Large-scale origins of rainfall and temperature bias in high-resolution simulations over southern Africa (Sylla et al. 2012)
Projected changes of temperature and precipitation in Texas from downscaled global climate models (Jiang & Yang, 2012)


Changing temperature and rainfall gradients in the British Uplands (Burt & Holden, 2011)
Long-term variation in soil temperature of the Mojave Desert, southwestern USA (Bai et al. 2011)
Statistical downscaling of daily temperatures in the NW Iberian Peninsula from global climate models: validation and future scenarios (Brands et al. 2011)


Urban effects on the diurnal temperature cycle in Phoenix, Arizona (Svoma & Brazel, 2010)
Regional characteristics of Arctic temperature variability: comparison of observations with regional climate simulations (Rinke et al. 2010)
Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901-2007, and its association with ENSO (Kothawale et al. 2010)
Trends in rainfall and extreme temperatures in northwestern Mexico (Gutiérrez-Ruacho et al. 2010)
Climatological modeling of monthly air temperature and precipitation in Egypt through GIS techniques (El Kenawy et al. 2010)
Scaling of the urban heat island effect based on the energy balance: nighttime minimum temperature increase vs. urban area length scale (Lee & Ho, 2010)
Air temperature trends and extremes in Chisinau (Moldova) as evidence of climate change (Corobov et al. 2010)
Trends in temperature and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau, 1961-2005 (Lu & Liu, 2010)
Simulation of the surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years of the Little Ice Age using a thermodynamic model (Mendoza et al. 2010)
Model weighting based on mesoscale structures in precipitation and temperature in an ensemble of regional climate models (Coppola et al. 2010)
Daily and monthly temperature and precipitation statistics as performance indicators for regional climate models (Kjellström et al. 2010)
Validation of temperature trends in the ENSEMBLES regional climate model runs driven by ERA40 (Lorenz & Jacob, 2010)
Modeling the impact of global warming on water temperature and seasonal mixing regimes in small temperate lakes (Kirillin 2010)
Impact of warmer climate on Lake Geneva water-temperature profiles (Perroud & Goyette 2010)


GIS-based techniques for urban heat island-spatialization (Szymanowski & Kryza, 2009)
Mediterranean Sea surface warming 1985-2006 (Nykjaer, 2009)
Effect of land cover on air temperatures involved in the development of an intra-urban heat island (Yokobori & Ohta, 2009)
Modelling near-surface temperature conditions in high mountain environments: an appraisal (Pape et al. 2009)
Changes and patterns in biologically relevant temperatures in Europe 1941-2000 (Sparks et al. 2009)
Projection of temperature over Korea using an MM5 regional climate simulation (Koo et al. 2009)



Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends (LaDochy et al. 2007)
Determinants of changes in the regional urban heat island in metropolitan Phoenix (Arizona, USA) between 1990 and 2004 (Brazel et al. 2007)
Decadal changes in water temperature and ecological time series in Lake Geneva, Europe—relationship to subtropical Atlantic climate variability (Molinero et al. 2007)
The urban heat island in Salamanca (Spain) and its relationship to meteorological parameters (Alonso et al. 2007)
Urban heat islands in humid and arid climates: role of urban form and thermal properties in Colombo, Sri Lanka and Phoenix, USA (Emmanuel & Fernando, 2007)
Downscaling regional climate model estimates of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation data (Rivington et al. 2007)
The energy balance and vertical thermal structure of two small boreal lakes in summer (Elo 2007)


Observed temperature changes in Emilia-Romagna: mean values and extremes (Tomozeiu et al. 2006)


Thermal structure of the atmospheric boundary layer over the South African Mpumalanga Highveld (Becker, 2005)
Spatial patterns of the urban heat island in Zaragoza (Spain) (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2005)
Comparison of temperatures simulated by GCMs, RCMs and statistical downscaling: potential application in studies of future crop development (Moriondo & Bindi, 2005)
Modelling of the annual mean maximum urban heat island using 2D and 3D surface parameters (Unger, 2005)


Impact of unusually clear weather on United States daily temperature range following 9/11/2001 (Kalkstein & Balling, 2004)
Statistical downscaling in European mountains: verification of reconstructed air temperature (Kettle & Thompson, 2004)
A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data (McKitrick & Michaels, 2004)
Summer 2003 maximum and minimum daily temperatures over a 3300 m altitudinal range in the Alps (Rebetez, 2004)
Regional trends in recent temperature indices in China (Qian & Lin, 2004)
Are temperature trends affected by economic activity? Comment on McKitrick & Michaels (2004) (Benestad, 2004)
Are temperature trends affected by economic activity? Reply to Benestad (2004) (McKitrick & Michaels, 2004)
Regional structure of global warming across China during the twentieth century (Lu et al. 2004)
Analysis of cold spells in the Greek region (Pappas et al. 2004)
Intra-urban relationship between surface geometry and urban heat island: review and new approach (Unger, 2004)
Sensitivity of present and future surface temperatures to precipitation characteristics (Lynn et al. 2004)
Seasonal variation in the regional structure of warming across China in the past half century (He et al. 2004)
Analysis of hot spell characteristics in the Greek region (Katsoulis & Hatzianastassiou, 2004)
Daytime temperature sum — a new thermal variable describing growing season characteristics and explaining evapotranspiration (Solantie 2004)


Revised 21st century temperature projections (Michaels et al. 2003)
Automated objective classification of daily circulation patterns for precipitation and temperature downscaling based on optimized fuzzy rules (Bárdossy et al. 2003)
Test for harmful collinearity among predictor variables used in modeling global temperature (Douglass et al. 2003)
Comparative analysis of interpolation methods in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain): application to annual precipitation and temperature (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2003)
How often can we expect a record event? (Benestad, 2003)
Temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway: comparison of results from dynamical and empirical downscaling (Hanssen-Bauer et al. 2003)
Development and validation of a high-resolution monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data set for Switzerland (1951-2000) (Gyalistras, 2003)
Multi-site simulation of daily precipitation and temperature conditional on the atmospheric circulation (Beersma & Buishand, 2003)
Likelihood of rapidly increasing surface temperatures unaccompanied by strong warming in the free troposphere (Chase et al. 2003)
Baltic Sea climate: 200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and atmospheric circulation (Omstedt et al. 2003)


Trends of minimum and maximum temperature in Poland (Wibig & Glowicki, 2002)
Comparison of extremes in GCM-simulated, downscaled and observed central-European temperature series (Kysely, 2002)
Simplified EOFs-three alternatives to rotation (Jolliffe et al. 2002)
Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for northern Europe based on a multi-model ensemble (Benestad, 2002)
Long memory in surface air temperature: detection, modeling, and application to weather derivative valuation (Caballero et al. 2002)
Growing-season temperature and soil moisture along a 10 km transect across a forested landscape (Xu et al. 2002)
Spatial modeling of winter temperature and precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico, USA (Brown & Comrie, 2002)
Relationships between mean and standard deviation of air temperature: implications for global warming (Robeson, 2002)
A GIS based empirical model to simulate air temperature variations in the Göteborg urban area during the night (Svensson et al. 2002)


Nature of observed temperature changes across the United States during the 20th century (Knappenberger et al. 2001)
Interpolation of temperature and non-urban ozone exposure at high spatial resolution over the western United States (Lee & Hogsett, 2001)


Evaluation of the linkage between Schumann Resonance peak frequency values and global and regional temperatures (Balling & Hildebrandt, 2000)
Interannual winter temperature variability in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (Sáenz et al. 2000)
Verification and analysis of a climate simulation of temperature and pressure fields over Norway and Svalbard (Hanssen-Bauer & Førland, 2000)


Mapping of temperature variables in Israel: a comparison of different interpolation methods (Kurtzman & Kadmon, 1999)
Simulation of daily temperatures for climate change scenarios over Portugal: a neural network model approach (Trigo & Palutikof, 1999)
Influence of geographical factors and meteorological variables on nocturnal urban-park temperature differences-a case study of summer 1995 in Göteborg, Sweden (Upmanis & Chen, 1999)


Comparison of temporal and unresolved spatial variability in multiyear time-averages of air temperature (Robeson & Janis, 1998)
Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements (Michaels et al. 1998)
Mapping monthly precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation for Ireland with polynomial regression and a digital elevation model (Goodale et al. 1998)
Long-term trends in precipitation and temperature in the Norwegian Arctic: can they be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns? (Hanssen-Bauer & Førland, 1998)
Analysis of long-term European temperature records: 1751-1995 (Balling et al. 1998)
The effects of climate change on the temperature conditions of lakes (Elo et al. 1998)


Daily air temperature interpolated at high spatial resolution over a large mountainous region (Dodson & Marks, 1997)
Temperature and its variability in oak forests in the southeastern Missouri Ozarks (Xu & Chen, 1997)
Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in gridded temperature time series (Balling et al. 1997)
Climatology of the daily temperature range annual cycle in the United States (Leathers et al. 1997)


Changing probabilities of daily temperature extremes in the UK related to future global warming and changes in climate variability (Barrow & Hulme, 1996)
Statistical characteristics of U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperature distributions (Guttman, 1996)
Environmental indices for the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (Minnesota, USA) urban heat island – 1989 (Todhunter, 1996)
Spatial modeling and interpolation of monthly temperature using kriging (Holdaway, 1996)
Intra-urban nocturnal temperature differences: a multivariate approach (Eliasson, 1996)


Interannual variability characteristics of the eastern Minnesota (USA) temperature record: implications for climate change studies (Skaggs et al. 1995)
Translating monthly temperature from regional to local scale in the southeastern United States (Carbone & Bramante, 1995)


Abrupt changes in regional temperature in the conterminous United States, 1895-1989 (Yonetani & McCabe, 1994)
Urban-biased trends in Buenos Aires’ mean temperature (Barros & Camilloni, 1994)
Influence of spatial sampling and interpolation on estimates of air temperature change (Robeson, 1994)


Interannual variability of Central European mean temperature in January-February and its relation to large-scale circulation (Werner & von Storch, 1993)


Correlation of 700 mb height data with seasonal temperature trends in the Great Basin (western USA): 1947-1987 (Knapp, 1992)
Annual development of climatic summer in northern North America: accurate prediction of summer heat availability (Scott, 1992)
A daily soil temperature model based on air temperature and precipitation for continental applications (Zheng et al. 1992)



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