AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research, December 21, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 21, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe (open access)

A reduction in marine primary productivity driven by rapid warming over the tropical Indian Ocean

Emergence of human influence on summer record-breaking temperatures over Europe

Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses

Environmental responses of the Northeast Antarctic Peninsula to the Holocene climate variability

Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing

Measurements and modelling of snow particle size and shortwave infrared albedo over a melting Antarctic ice sheet (open access)

Summertime evolution of snow specific surface area close to the surface on the Antarctic Plateau (open access)

Regional variability of a projected sea ice-free Arctic during the summer months (open access)

Episodic warming of near-bottom waters under the Arctic sea ice on the central Laptev Sea shelf

Consequences of future increased arctic runoff on Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice cover

Spectral albedo and transmittance of thin young Arctic sea ice

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the Southeast Pacific precipitation decline and recent mega-drought in central Chile

Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century

Mid-Holocene permafrost: Results from CMIP5 simulations

In-situ based reanalysis of the global ocean temperature and salinity with ISAS: variability of the heat content and steric height

Global reconstructions of glacier mass change during the 20th century are consistent (open access)

Effects of global change during the 21st century on the nitrogen cycle (open access)

Climate-vegetation modelling and fossil plant data suggest low atmospheric CO2 in the late Miocene (open access)

Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium (open access)

Is extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal a ‘green’ form of geoengineering? A global modelling study

Ancient Juniper trees growing on cliffs: towards a long Mediterranean tree-ring chronology

A new paleoclimate classification for deep time

The intensification of thermal extremes in west Africa

Facing climatic hazards: Paleolithic foragers and Neolithic farmers

Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development

Climate-induced human displacement: a case study of Cyclone Aila in the south-west coastal region of Bangladesh

Seventeen-year trends in spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens in a boreal environment

Community-wide changes in inter-taxonomic temporal co-occurrence resulting from phenological shifts

Cli-fi on the screen(s): patterns in the representations of climate change in fictional films

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events (open access)

Climate change in Algeria and its impact on durum wheat

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from future Amazonian hydroelectric reservoirs (open access)

Land cover and land use changes in the oil and gas regions of Northwestern Siberia under changing climatic conditions (open access)

Nuclear power in the 21st century: Challenges and possibilities (open access)

Input–output life cycle environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from utility scale wind energy in the United States

Projected habitat loss for Atlantic herring in the Baltic Sea

Characterizing the GHG emission impacts of carsharing: a case of Vancouver (open access)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, December 15, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 15, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Record-breaking temperatures in China during the warming and recent hiatus periods

Analysis of CO2 mole fraction data: first evidence of large-scale changes in CO2 uptake at high northern latitudes (open access)

Physical processes contributing to an ice free Beaufort Sea during September 2012

Enhanced warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

Modern to millennium-old greenhouse gases emitted from ponds and lakes of the Eastern Canadian Arctic (Bylot Island, Nunavut) (open access)

The political collapse of Chichén Itzá in climatic and cultural context

Spatial analysis of trends in primary production and relationship with large-scale climate variability in the Ross Sea, Antarctica (1997-2013)

Recent Hadley cell expansion: the role of internal atmospheric variability in reconciling modeled and observed trends

Analytic radiative-advective equilibrium as a model for high-latitude climate

Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau, China: 1982–2011

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: enhancing citizen’s climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism (open access)

Antarctic icebergs distributions 1992-2014

Further Exploring and Quantifying Uncertainties for Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Version 4 (v4)

Bias in the variance of gridded data sets leads to misleading conclusions about changes in climate variability

Timing of the first drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1

Global spread of hypoxia in freshwater ecosystems during the last three centuries is caused by rising local human pressure

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, December 11, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 11, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Predicted slow-down in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss

A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target

Albedo feedback enhanced by smoother Arctic sea ice

A growing importance of large fires in conterminous United States during 1984 – 2012

Antarctic Ice Shelf Thickness from Cryosat-2 Radar Altimetry (open access)

Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry

On the vertical phytoplankton response to an ice free Arctic Ocean

Temperature and precipitation extremes in the United States: Quantifying the responses to anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Robust strengthening and westward shift of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation during 1979~2012: a comparison of 7 sets of reanalysis data and 26 AMIP5 models

Climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world

The effect of downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation on Arctic summer sea ice

Unforced surface air temperature variability and its contrasting relationship with the anomalous TOA energy flux at local and global spatial scales

Variability in severe coastal flooding in south-eastern Australia since the mid-19th century, associated storms and death tolls

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability – first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) (open access)

Using satellite data to improve the leaf phenology of a global terrestrial biosphere model (open access)

Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets (open access)

Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions (open access)

Trends and climatic sensitivities of vegetation phenology in semiarid and arid ecosystems in the US Great Basin during 1982–2011 (open access)

Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT (open access)

Assessing the current and future urban heat island of Brussels

Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change (open access)

Was atmospheric CO2 capped at 1000 ppm over the past 300 million years?

Influence of altered low cloud parameterizations for seasonal variation of Arctic cloud amount on climate feedbacks

Contrasting evolution patterns between glacier-fed and non-glacier-fed lakes in the Tanggula Mountains and climate cause analysis

Extreme hot summers in China in the CMIP5 climate models

Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Impact of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity on Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variation during 1980–2013

Greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions from soils following afforestation in central China

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue (open access)

Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska (open access)

Total land water storage change over 2003–2013 estimated from a global mass budget approach (open access)

Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees

Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, December 7, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 7, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Can carbon emissions from tropical deforestation drop by 50% in five years?

A Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record

How much does it rain over land?

Can public perceptions of Australian climate extremes be reconciled with the statistics of climate change? (open access)

Exceptional ocean surface conditions on the SE Greenland shelf during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Quantification of precipitation and temperature uncertainties simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene (open access)

Getting Greenland’s glaciers right – a new data set of all official Greenlandic glacier names (open access)

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices

Effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

Land-use legacies rather than climate change are driving the recent upward shift of the mountain tree line in the Pyrenees

The importance of sea-ice area biases in 21st century multi-model projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

Exploring the Tropically Excited Arctic Warming Mechanism with Station Data: Links between Tropical Convection and Arctic Downward Infrared Radiation

Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations (open access)

Snow cover on Arctic Sea ice in observations and an Earth System Model

Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level

Impacts of climate and reclamation on temporal variations in CH4 emissions from different wetlands in China: from 1950 to 2010 (open access)

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China

High-resolution inventory of technologies, activities, and emissions of coal-fired power plants in China from 1990 to 2010 (open access)

Geographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasing

Evaluating economic costs and benefits of climate resilient livelihood strategies

A 382-year reconstruction of August mean minimum temperature from tree-ring maximum latewood density on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Dendroclimatic reconstruction of late summer temperatures from upper treeline sites in Greater Caucasus, Russia

Megacities, air quality and climate

Special issue: Ancient polar ecosystems and paleoclimate in deep time: Evidence from the past, implications for the future

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 30, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 30, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C (open access)

How increasing CO2 leads to an increased negative greenhouse effect in Antarctica

Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarms During Sea Ice Loss

Variability and evolution of global land surface phenology over the past three decades (1982-2012)

Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades (open access)

Anthropogenic aerosol deposition reduces the sensitivity of oceanic productivity to warming

Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice during the last glacial

On the enigmatic similarity in Greenland δ18O between the Oldest and Younger Dryas

Revealing glacier flow and surge dynamics from animated satellite image sequences: examples from the Karakoram (open access)

Transitivity of the climate–vegetation system in a warm climate (open access)

Does GOSAT capture the true seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide? (open access)

Hurricane Names: A Bunch of Hot Air? (open access)

Bite without Bark: How The socioeconomic context of the 1950s U.S. drought minimized responses to a multiyear extreme climate event (open access)

Glaciomorphological Map of the Russian Federation

Drought stress impacts of climate change on rainfed rice in South Asia

Temperature, extreme precipitation, and diurnal rainfall changes in the urbanized Jakarta city during the past 130 years

Climate-induced mortality of spruce stands in Belarus (open access)

Land use patterns and related carbon losses following deforestation in South America (open access)

Potential emissions of CO2 and methane from proved reserves of fossil fuels: An alternative analysis

Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings (open access)

Changes in the 1963–2013 shallow ground thermal regime in Russian permafrost regions (open access)

Energy use, blue water footprint, and greenhouse gas emissions for current food consumption patterns and dietary recommendations in the US

Switching from fossil fuel to renewables in residential heating systems: An empirical study of homeowners’ decisions in Germany

Freshwater biota and rising pCO2?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 24, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 24, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift (open access)

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico (open access)

Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia

A New method for identifying possible causal relationships between CO2, total solar irradiance and global temperature change

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Predicting the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 and its timing

Evidence of a decadal solar signal in the Amazon River: 1903 to 2013

Decadal variability of upper ocean heat content in the Pacific: Responding to the 11-year solar cycle

Long-term variations in global sea level extremes

Ocean versus atmosphere control on western European wintertime temperature variability

Spectral characteristics of instrumental and climate model surface temperatures

Preaching to different choirs: How to motivate dismissive, uncommitted, and alarmed audiences to adapt to climate change?

Integrated radar and lidar analysis reveals extensive loss of remaining intact forest on Sumatra 2007–2010 (open access)

Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient

Temperature changes derived from phenological and natural evidence in South Central China from 1850 to 2008 (open access)

Indications for a North Atlantic ocean circulation regime shift at the onset of the Little Ice Age

Air pollution and climate response to aerosol direct radiative effects: a modeling study of decadal trends across the northern hemisphere

Assessing the role of precursor cyclones on the formation of extreme Greenland blocking episodes and their impact on summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet

OMI total column ozone: extending the long-term data record (open access)

The changing ozone depletion potential of N2O in a future climate

First surface velocity maps for glaciers of Monte Tronador, North Patagonian Andes, derived from sequential Pléiades satellite images

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 19, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 19, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Regional dependence in the timing of onset of rapid decline in Arctic sea ice concentration

Can we map the interannual variability of the whole upper Southern Ocean with the current database of hydrographic observations?

An impulse response function for the ‘long tail’ of excess atmospheric CO2 in an Earth system model

The relationship between inter-annual and long-term cloud feedbacks

Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming

The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Changes in climate extremes and catastrophic events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

An Initial Study on Climate Change Fingerprinting Using The Reflected Solar Spectra

Antarctic sea ice response to weather and climate modes of variability

Estimation of continuous anthropogenic CO2: model-based evaluation of CO2, CO, δ13C(CO2) and Δ14C(CO2) tracer methods (open access)

Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases (open access)

Climate response to Amazon forest replacement by heterogeneous crop cover (open access)

The effects of global change upon United States air quality (open access)

Timing of rice maturity in China is affected more by transplanting date than by climate change

Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering (open access)

Review: Potential catastrophic reduction of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean: Its impact on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems

The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review (open access)

Farmer’s intended and actual adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (open access)

Improving the estimation of the true mean monthly and true mean annual air temperatures in Greece (open access)

Heat content of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool is increasing (open access)

Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output

Global energy budgets and “Trenberth diagrams” for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer (open access)

Why Finance Ministers Favor Carbon Taxes, Even If They Do Not Take Climate Change into Account

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming (open access)

Nitrogen deposition and its effect on carbon storage in Chinese forests during 1981–2010

Environmental impacts of German food consumption and food losses

Between redeemer and work of the devil: The transnational Brazilian biofuel discourse

Temperature driven changes in the diet preference of omnivorous copepods: no more meat when it’s hot?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 13, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 13, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

Conceptual model analysis of the influence of temperature feedbacks on polar amplification

On Anomalous Ocean Heat Transport toward the Arctic and Associated Climate Predictability

Differences Between Conservatives and Liberals in Information Seeking Behavior and Perceived Risks Associated with Climate-driven Changes to Local Forest Conditions

Does the NMME Capture a Recent Decadal Shift Toward Increasing Drought Occurrence in the Southwestern US?

The transient and equilibrium climate response to rapid summertime sea ice loss in CCSM4

The global land shortwave cryosphere radiative effect during the MODIS era (open access)

Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss (open access)

Putting the clouds back in aerosol–cloud interactions (open access)

Coastal lagoons and rising sea level: A review

Land surface phenology of China’s temperate ecosystems over 1999–2013: Spatial–temporal patterns, interaction effects, covariation with climate and implications for productivity

Is there a transition of solar radiation from dimming to brightening over India?

Re-estimation of glacier mass loss in Greenland from GRACE with correction of land-ocean leakage effects

Approaches to Observe Anthropogenic Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (open access)

What shapes perceptions of climate change? New research since 2010

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Climate change and larval-transport in the ocean: Fractional effects from physical and physiological factors

On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic

Multi-decadal shoreline changes in response to sea level rise in the Marshall Islands

Metropolitan foodsheds: a resilient response to the climate change challenge?

Mediterranean climate future: an insightful look into the Basin’s precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing (open access)

Biogenic acidification reduces sea urchin gonad growth and increases susceptibility of aquaculture to ocean acidification

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 7, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 7, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate and land use

Loitering of the retreating sea ice edge in the Arctic Seas

Climatology and trends of tropical cyclone high wind in mainland China: 1959–2011

The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation

How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/11 La Niña event?

Early Cenomanian “hot greenhouse” revealed by oxygen isotope record of exceptionally well-preserved foraminifera from Tanzania

Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica (open access)

Seasonal and interannual variability of fast ice extent in the southeastern Laptev Sea between 1999 and 2013

Atmospheric energy transport to the Arctic 1979-2012 (open access)

Mass balance of the Sør Rondane glacial system, East Antarctica

Large-scale reconstruction of accumulation rates in northern Greenland from radar data

Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway

Temperature distribution and thermal anomalies along a flowline of the Greenland ice sheet

Greenland high-elevation mass balance: inference and implication of reference period (1961–90) imbalance

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

Characterizing the Hadley circulation response through regional climate feedbacks

Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014 (open access)

Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes (open access)

An Overview of Weather and Climate Extremes – Products and Trends (open access)

Chemical weathering and consumption of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the Alpine region

Intercomparison of the temperature contrast between the arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: process and prospects for sustained assessment

Temporal evolution of Hudson Bay Sea Ice (1971–2011)

Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world

Detection and attribution of the effects of climate change on bat distributions over the last 50 years

Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity

Canopy leaf area of a mature evergreen Eucalyptus woodland does not respond to elevated atmospheric [CO2] but tracks water availability

Local indicators of climate change: the potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

Reconstruction and homogenization of the longest instrumental precipitation series in the Iberian Peninsula (Barcelona, 1786–2014)

Novel wildlife in the Arctic: the influence of changing riparian ecosystems and shrub habitat expansion on snowshoe hares

Decadal changes in radiative fluxes at land and ocean surfaces and their relevance for global warming (open access)

Detection and attribution of regional CO2 concentration anomalies using surface observations

Life cycle assessment of energy generation in Poland (open access)

Leave before it’s too late: Anthropogenic and environmental triggers of autumn migration in a hunted ungulate population

Contrasting synchrony in root and leaf phenology across multiple sub-Arctic plant communities

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 30, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 30, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Has the grand idea of geoengineering as Plan B run out of steam?

Holocene North Atlantic Overturning in an atmosphere–ocean-sea-ice model compared to proxy-based reconstructions

Large methane emissions from a subarctic lake during spring thaw: mechanisms and landscape significance

Placing the 2012–2015 California-Nevada drought into a paleoclimatic context: Insights from Walker Lake, California-Nevada, USA

Millennial-scale oscillations between sea ice and convective deep water formation

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea-level rise: Past and future

Distributed subglacial discharge drives significant submarine melt at a Greenland tidewater glacier

Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?

The impact of regional Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Comparison of radiative energy flows in observational datasets and climate modeling

Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (open access)

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate? (open access)

The U.S. Drought of 2012 (open access)

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study (open access)

Decadal trends of the annual amplitude of global precipitation (open access)

Air temperature changes in Svalbard and the surrounding seas from 1865 to 1920

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming

Carbon sequestration in soil

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits (open access)

Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health (open access)

Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK

Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea (open access)

Warming affects hatching time and early season survival of eastern tent caterpillars

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »


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