AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research – June and July 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 7, 2015

Below are some new climate related papers from June and July 2015. They are not ordered by subject but roughly by publication time.

Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

Arctic sea ice reduction: the evidence, models and impacts

Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume from CryoSat-2

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns (open access)

Time scales and ratios of climate forcing due to thermal versus carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels (open access)

Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming

Simulated climatology and evolution of aridity in the 21st century

Seasonal changes in tropical SST and the surface energy budget under global warming projected by CMIP5 models

An inventory of glacial lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global warming

Exceptionally cold and mild winters in Europe (1951–2010) (open access)

Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

Casualties as a moral measure of climate change

Sensitivity of Caspian sea-ice to air temperature

Increase in flood and drought disasters during 1500–2000 in Southwest China

Spring–summer albedo variations of Antarctic sea ice from 1982 to 2009 (open access)

Why we should help people understand our scientific literature (open access)

How has soil carbon stock changed over recent decades?

International trends in public perceptions of climate change over the past quarter century (open access)

The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity (open access)

Evolution of ice-shelf channels in Antarctic ice shelves (open access)

Asymmetric Impact of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on El Niño and La Niña Characteristics

Subtropical and mid-latitude ozone trends in the stratosphere: implications for recovery

Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance

Stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections cannot preserve the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Greenland Ice Sheet melt increases Baffin Bay heat content on the west Greenland shelf

Uncertainty of Arctic summer ice drift assessed by high-resolution SAR data

The seasonal cycle of the Arctic Ocean under climate change

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the U.S.

Drought and Pluvial Dipole Events within the Great Plains of the United States

Dramatic loss of glacier accumulation area on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by ice core tritium and mercury records (open access)

Changes in the firn structure of the western Greenland Ice Sheet caused by recent warming (open access)

Comparison of in-situ, aircraft, and satellite land surface temperature measurements over a NOAA Climate Reference Network site

Can we infer avalanche–climate relations using tree-ring data? Case studies in the French Alps

Effects of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature changes in China during the twentieth century based on CMIP5 models

Unambiguous warming in the western tropical Pacific primarily caused by anthropogenic forcing

Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective

Stronger warming amplification over drier ecoregions observed since 1979 (open access)

U.S. oil dependence 2014: Is energy independence in sight?

Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover

How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?

The climatological distribution of extreme Arctic winds, and implications for ocean and sea ice processes

The evolution of habitable climates under the brightening Sun

The Anthropocene biosphere

The Impact of Arctic Winter Infrared Radiation on Early Summer Sea Ice

Weak precipitation, warm winters and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994–2013) (open access)

Super El Niños in response to global warming in a climate model

Is a White Christmas becoming rarer in southern parts of Sweden?

Sponge erosion under acidification and warming scenarios: differential impacts on living and dead coral

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate (open access)

Using regime analysis to identify the contribution of clouds to surface temperature errors in weather and climate models

Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans (open access)

Scepticism in a changing climate: A cross-national study

Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

Massive nitrous oxide emissions from the tropical South Pacific Ocean

Disappearance of the southeast U.S. “warming hole” with the late-1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Modern solar maximum forced late 20th century Greenland cooling

Transports and budgets of anthropogenic CO2 in the tropical North Atlantic in 1992–93 and 2010–11

Recent Spatio-temporal patterns in Temperature Extremes across Conterminous United States

Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification on early life stages of marine medaka (Oryzias melastigma) (open access)

Nonlinear response of modelled stratospheric ozone to changes in greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances in the recent past (open access)

A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data (open access)

Assessment of urban effect on observed warming trends during 1955–2012 over China: a case of 45 cities

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events

Decoding the precision of historical temperature observations

Will A Warmer and Wetter Future Cause Extinction of Native Hawaiian Forest Birds?

Seasonality of soil moisture mediates responses of ecosystem phenology to elevated CO2 and warming in a semi-arid grassland

The distribution of precipitation and the spread in tropical upper tropospheric temperature trends in CMIP5/AMIP simulations

Undercutting of marine-terminating glaciers in West Greenland

Estimating global and North American methane emissions with high spatial resolution using GOSAT satellite data (open access)

Terrestrial net primary productivity in India during 1901–2010: contributions from multiple environmental changes

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States (open access)

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency (open access)

Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada’s boreal forests

An assessment of methods for computing radiative forcing in climate models (open access)

Aboveground carbon loss in natural and managed tropical forests from 2000 to 2012 (open access)

Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing (open access)

Vulnerability to climate change and sea-level rise of the 35th biodiversity hotspot, the Forests of East Australia

Evidence for long-term shift in plant community composition under decadal experimental warming

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

The Observed State of the Energy Budget in the Early 21st Century

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early 21st Century

Why does aerosol forcing control historical global-mean surface temperature change in CMIP5 models?

Hybrid glacier Inventory, Gravimetry and Altimetry (HIGA) mass balance product for Greenland and the Canadian Arctic

Assessing temperature sensitivity of subalpine shrub phenology in semi-arid mountain regions of China

Can changes in the distribution of lizard species over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Ice storm frequencies in a warmer climate

On the predictability of extremes: does the butterfly effect ever decrease?

Framework of barrier reefs threatened by ocean acidification

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

A cyclone climatology of the British-Irish Isles 1871–2012

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

The vulnerability of the US food system to climate change

What if solar energy becomes really cheap? A thought experiment on environmental problem shifting

Climate change implications for the nest site selection process and subsequent hatching success of a green turtle population

Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition

Amplified melt and flow of the Greenland ice sheet driven by late-summer cyclonic rainfall

Methane emissions from an alpine wetland on the Tibetan Plateau: Neglected but vital contribution of non-growing season

The recent hiatus in global warming of the land surface: scale-dependent breakpoint occurrences in space and time

Trends in the Local Hadley and Local Walker Circulations

Increasing evaporation amounts seen in the Arctic between 2003-2013 from AIRS data

An oceanic impact of the Kuroshio on surface air temperature on the Pacific coast of Japan in summer: Regional H2O greenhouse gas effect

Wintertime storage of water in buried supraglacial lakes across the Greenland Ice Sheet (open access)

Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model (open access)

The Greenland ice sheet during the last glacial cycle: current ice loss and contribution to sea-level rise from a palaeoclimatic perspective

Ways of knowing climate: Hubert H. Lamb and climate research in the UK

Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

Guidance for representing uncertainty on global temperature change maps

Allocating a 2 °C cumulative carbon budget to countries (open access)

Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming (open access)

Additional contributions to CMIP5 regional sea level projections resulting from Greenland and Antarctic ice mass loss (open access)

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Sea-air CO2 exchange in the western Arctic coastal ocean

The impact of stored solar heat on Arctic sea-ice Growth

Causes of the 2011 to 2014 California drought

Patterns of Asian Winter Climate Variability and Links to Arctic Sea Ice

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Detecting recent changes in the areal extent of North Cascades glaciers, U.S.A.

On the climate and climate change of Sitka, Southeast Alaska (open access)

How climate proof is the European Union’s biodiversity policy?

Decreasing US aridity in a warming climate

Linking interannual variability in extreme Greenland blocking episodes to the recent increase in summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet

An estimate of anthropogenic heat emissions in China

Effect of changes in temperature scales on historical temperature data

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain

Plant phenological responses to a long-term experimental extension of growing season and soil warming in the tussock tundra of Alaska

It is not just about the ice: a geochemical perspective on the changing Arctic Ocean (open access)

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

Effects of climate and plant phenology on recruitment of moose at the southern extent of their range

The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results

Mass-balance changes of the debris-covered glaciers in the Langtang Himal, Nepal, from 1974 to 1999

Globally significant greenhouse-gas emissions from African inland waters

The Global Land Rush and Climate Change (open access)

Hidden carbon sink beneath desert

Determining Regional Weather Patterns from a Historical Diary

Robust Future Changes in Temperature Variability under Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Relationship with Thermal Advection

Reconstructing European forest management from 1600 to 2010 (open access)

Source contributions to 2012 summertime aerosols in the Euro-Mediterranean region (open access)

Impact of Climate Change on Urban Heat Island Effect and Extreme Temperatures: A Case Study

Evaluating changes in season length, onset, and end dates across the United States (1948–2012)

Destruction or persistence of coral atoll islands in the face of 20th and 21st century sea-level rise?

Fishers’ perceptions of climate change, impacts on their livelihoods and adaptation strategies in environmental change hotspots: a case of Lake Wamala, Uganda

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers

Derivation and analysis of a complete modern-date glacier inventory for Alaska and northwest Canada

Local Trend Disparities Of European Minimum And Maximum Temperature Extremes

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (open access)

The Earth’s energy balance

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Surface ocean CO2 in 1990–2011 modelled using a feed-forward neural network (open access)

Glaciers and climate change: narratives of ruined futures

Ocean warming ameliorates the negative effects of ocean acidification on Paracentrotus lividus larval development and settlement

The evolution of the evidence base for observed impacts of climate change

How resilient are farming households and communities to a changing climate in Africa? A gender-based perspective

Effects of wind-energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

Sensitivity of flowering phenology to changing temperature in China

What hindered the El Niño pattern in 2014?

Anthropogenic Weakening of the Tropical Circulation: The Relative Roles of Direct CO2 Forcing and Sea Surface Temperature Change

Repeat storm surge disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and its 1897 predecessor in the Philippines

Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the middle east

Climate context of the cold summer of 2014 in Toronto, ON, Canada

The climate of war: violence, warfare, and climatic reductionism


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New research – April and May 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 15, 2015

In February, I stopped providing daily new climate research posts in social media. However, I still keep an eye on new publications. Below are some new climate related papers from April and May 2015. They are not ordered by subject but roughly by publication time. There are 196 papers in the list.

Heat Content variability in the North Atlantic Ocean in Ocean Reanalyses

Monitoring deep ocean temperatures using acoustic ambient noise

Modeling the fate of methane hydrates under global warming

A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn

638 years of summer temperature variability over the Bhutanese Himalaya

Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment

The impact of Sahara desertification on Arctic cooling during the Holocene (open access)

Diminished greenhouse warming from Archean methane due to solar absorption lines (open access)

A high resolution record of sea surface temperature in southern Okinawa Trough for the past 15,000 years

Executives’ engagement with climate science and perceived need for business adaptation to climate change

Trends in the Skill of Weather Prediction at Lead Times of 1 to 14 Days

A daily Azores–Iceland North Atlantic Oscillation index back to 1850 (open access)

Lightning myths in southern Africa

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate (open access)

Nuclear reactors’ construction costs: The role of lead-time, standardization and technological progress

Recent slowdown of tropical upper-tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

The Frequency and Duration of US Hurricane Droughts

New estimates of tropical mean temperature trend profiles from zonal mean historical radiosonde and pilot balloon wind shear observations

Heat wave flash droughts in decline

Simultaneous reductions in emissions of black carbon and co-emitted species will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect (open access)

A connection between geomagnetic intensity and climatic anomalies recorded in Chinese loess

Algorithm to retrieve the melt pond fraction and the spectral albedo of Arctic summer ice from satellite optical data

Change in the glacier extent in Turkey during the Landsat Era

Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: Global implications

Virus disease in wheat predicted to increase with a changing climate

Effective climate change refugia for coral reefs

Environmental art, prior knowledge about climate change, and carbon offsets

Extraction of the global absolute temperature for Northern Hemisphere using a set of 6190 meteorological stations from 1800 to 2013

Parameterizations for narrowband and broadband albedo of pure snow, and snow containing mineral dust and black carbon

Observed climate change hot-spots

Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth

Estimating the Atlantic overturning at 26°N using satellite altimetry and cable measurements

Spatial patterns in CO2 evasion from the global river network

Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early-19th Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe

A Millennial Summer Temperature Reconstruction for the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from Tree Ring Width

On the predictability of the winter Euro-Atlantic climate: lagged influence of autumn Arctic sea-ice

Temperature Trends over Germany from Homogenized Radiosonde Data

CMIP5 projections of Arctic amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic circulation, and of their relationship

Warming permafrost and active layer variability at Cime Bianche, Western European Alps (open access)

Long term changes in the ionosphere over Indian low latitudes: Impact of greenhouse gases

Addressing the risk of double counting emission reductions under the UNFCCC

Time-lag Effects of Global Vegetation Responses to Climate Change

Variability in the start, end, and length of frost-free periods across the conterminous United States during the past century

Personal experience with climate change predicts intentions to act

Long term energy and emission implications of a global shift to electricity-based public rail transportation system

Swedish birds are tracking temperature but not rainfall: evidence from a decade of abundance changes

Estimating global natural wetland methane emissions using process modelling: spatio-temporal patterns and contributions to atmospheric methane fluctuations

Resistance and resilience of terrestrial birds in drying climates: do floodplains provide drought refugia?

Ebullition of methane from peatlands: does peat act as a signal shredder?

Impact of the global warming hiatus on Andean temperature

Extratropical ocean warming and winter Arctic sea ice cover since the 1990s

Human influences on changes in the temperature seasonality in mid-to-high latitude land areas

Multidecadal variability of the summer length in Europe

Carbon isotope (δ13C) excursions suggest times of major methane release during the last 14 kyr in Fram Strait, the deep-water gateway to the Arctic (open access)

Quantifying meltwater refreezing along a transect of sites on the Greenland ice sheet (open access)

What drives growth of Scots pine in continental Mediterranean climates: Drought, low temperatures or both?

Climate change vulnerability assessment of the urban forest in three Canadian cities

Wintertime climate factors controlling snow resource decline in Finland

Three centuries of dual pressure from land use and climate change on the biosphere (open access)

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States (open access)

Polar amplification and elevation-dependence in trends of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, 1971–2014 (open access)

Climate effect of black carbon aerosol in a Tibetan Plateau glacier

Network analysis reveals open forums and echo chambers in social media discussions of climate change

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

Greenland 2012 melt event effects on CryoSat-2 radar altimetry

Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increases: Part 2. Comparison of model ensembles to observational estimates

Multi-century changes in ocean and land contributions to climate-carbon feedbacks

Sunshine duration variability and trends in Italy from homogenized instrumental time series (1936–2013)

Heterogeneous warming of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures over the last 1200 years

Using Microwave Satellite Data to Assess Changes in Storminess over the Pacific Ocean

Glacial meltwater and primary production are drivers of strong CO2 uptake in fjord and coastal waters adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet (open access)

Subsurface North Atlantic warming as a trigger of rapid cooling events: evidence from the early Pleistocene (MIS 31–19) (open access)

Future permafrost conditions along environmental gradients in Zackenberg, Greenland (open access)

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Scientists’ views and positions on global warming and climate change: A content analysis of congressional testimonies

Does “adaptation to climate change” mean resignation or opportunity?

The visual rhetoric of climate change

The severity of wheat diseases increases when plants and pathogens are acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide

How does model development affect climate projections?

Quantifying a realistic, worldwide wind and solar electricity supply

Polar amplification and elevation-dependence in trends of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent, 1971–2014 (open access)

Geographically coherent patterns of albedo enhancement and suppression associated with aerosol sources and sinks (open access)

Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

Coupled simulations of Greenland ice sheet and climate change up to AD 2300

Detecting the signature of permafrost thaw in Arctic rivers

Seasonal to decadal variations of sea surface pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux in the equatorial oceans over 1984-2013: A basin-scale comparison of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

On the long-term climate memory in the surface air temperature records over Antarctica: A non-negligible factor for trend evaluation

Tracing glacier changes in Austria from the Little Ice Age to the present using a lidar-based high-resolution glacier inventory in Austria (open access)

The decrease in mid-stratospheric tropical ozone since 1991 (open access)

Assessing the vulnerability of Australian skinks to climate change

Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality

Agricultural drought hazard analysis during 1980–2008: a global perspective

Temperature and snowfall trigger alpine vegetation green-up on the world’s roof

The dynamics of vulnerability: why adapting to climate variability will not always prepare us for climate change

Beyond ‘deniers’ and ‘believers’: Towards a map of the politics of climate change

Getting the Anthropocene so wrong

Who speaks for the future of Earth? How critical social science can extend the conversation on the Anthropocene

Population history and its relationship with climate change on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the past 10,000 years

An increase in the rate of global mean sea level rise since 2010

Considerations for Estimating the 20th Century Trend in Global Mean Sea Level

A combined solar and geomagnetic index for thermospheric climate

Possible impacts of a future Grand Solar Minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

Predictable components in Australian daily temperature data

The impact of poleward moisture and sensible heat flux on Arctic winter sea-ice variability

Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty (open access)

Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (open access)

Lengthening of the growing season in wheat and maize producing regions

Elevation changes measured during 1966–2010 on the monsoonal temperate glaciers’ ablation region, Gongga Mountains, China

Inhomogeneous warming of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the CMIP5 model simulations during 1900–2005 and associated mechanisms

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Impact of Climate Change on Cold Hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): Environmental and Genetic Considerations

Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences (open access)

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate (open access)

The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review (open access)

Spatial patterns of radiative forcing and surface temperature response

Interpolation of Global Monthly Rain-Gauge Observations for Climate Change Analysis

The GAMDAM glacier inventory: a quality-controlled inventory of Asian glaciers (open access)

Vulnerability and adaptation to severe weather events in the American southwest (open access)

Long-term changes/trends in surface temperature and precipitation during the satellite era (1979–2012)

Historical and experimental evidence for enhanced concentration of artemesinin, a global anti-malarial treatment, with recent and projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide

Drought and societal collapse 3200 years ago in the Eastern Mediterranean: a review

Climate change tipping points: origins, precursors, and debates

Does the growth response of woody plants to elevated CO2 increase with temperature? A model-oriented meta-analysis

Environmental and health impacts of a policy to phase out nuclear power in Sweden

Energy efficiency to mitigate carbon emissions: strategies of China and the USA

Land-ice elevation changes from photon-counting swath altimetry: first applications over the Antarctic ice sheet

Runaway thinning of the low-elevation Yakutat Glacier, Alaska, and its sensitivity to climate change

Basal topographic controls on rapid retreat of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland

Temperature Impacts on the Water Year 2014 Drought in California

Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex

Climate Impacts of Large-scale Wind Farms as Parameterized in a Global Climate Model

Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas (open access)

Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5 (open access)

Measurements of methane emissions from natural gas gathering facilities and processing plants: measurement methods (open access)

The Greenhouse Gas Climate Change Initiative (GHG-CCI): Comparison and quality assessment of near-surface-sensitive satellite-derived CO2 and CH4 global data sets

Predicting temporal shifts in the spring occurrence of overwintered Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) and rice phenology in Korea with climate change

Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980–2010

Climate-driven changes in lakes from the Peruvian Andes

Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice (open access)

Recent changes in Serbian climate extreme indices from 1961 to 2010

Up to 400-year-old Rhododendron shrubs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau: prospects for shrub-based dendrochronology

Seepage: Climate change denial and its effect on the scientific community

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global Mean Surface Temperature

The Melting Arctic and Mid-latitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?

Projected 21st century changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season

A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea-level acceleration

A review of trend models applied to sea level data with reference to the “acceleration-deceleration debate”

Increases in the Annual Range of Soil Water Storage at Northern Mid- and High-Latitudes under Global Warming

Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning (open access)

Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe (open access)

Observed changes in ocean acidity and carbon dioxide exchange in the coastal Bay of Bengal – a link to air pollution (open access)

Snow bands over the Gulf of Finland in wintertime (open access)

Underground urban heat island below Moscow city

A decade of sea surface temperature from MODIS

Impact Of Soil Moisture On Extreme Maximum Temperatures In Europe

Effect of recent minor volcanic eruptions on temperatures in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

Management of drought risk under global warming

Four decades of glacier mass balance observations in the Indian Himalaya

Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere

Global semi-arid climate change over last 60 years (open access)

Observed trends in light precipitation events over global land during 1961–2010

Colony-specific investigations reveal highly variable responses among individual corals to ocean acidification and warming

Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2) (open access)

Does External Forcing Interfere with the AMOC’s Influence on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature?

Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Sustained growth of the Southern Ocean carbon storage in a warming climate

AIRS satellite data reveal the Arctic is becoming warmer and wetter

Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet (open access)

Europe on fire three thousand years ago: Arson or climate?

A model of the methane cycle, permafrost, and hydrology of the Siberian continental margin (open access)

AOD trends during 2001–2010 from observations and model simulations (open access)

Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming (open access)

Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects (open access)

Projected impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on the global biogeography of planktonic Foraminifera (open access)

Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China

Optimal forcing of ENSO either side of the 1970’s climate shift and its implications for predictability

Attributing observed Greenland responses to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings

Social ties and concern for global warming

Six temperature and precipitation regimes of the contiguous United States between 1895 and 2010: a statistical inference study

Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change

Revisiting the potential of melt pond fraction as a predictor for the seasonal Arctic sea ice extent minimum (open access)

Arctic lakes are continuous methane sources to the atmosphere under warming conditions (open access)

Satellite constraint on the tropospheric ozone radiative effect

Changes in ocean vertical heat transport with global warming

Influence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse on Antarctic surface climate

Threshold Behavior of a Marine-Based Sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in Response to Early Pliocene Ocean Warming

Cloud radiative forcing at Summit, Greenland

Centennial changes of the global water cycle in CMIP5 models

Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends

Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya (open access)

Quantifying contributions to the recent temperature variability in the tropical tropopause layer (open access)

Analysis of surface incident shortwave radiation from four satellite products

Monitoring Arctic sea ice phenology change using hypertemporal remotely sensed data: 1989–2010

Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966–2012 (open access)

A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009 (open access)

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Climate content of Environmental Research Letters

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 17, 2015

Environmental Research Letters (ERL) is relatively new scientific journal. It was first published in 2006. ERL deals with different environmental issues and climate change is one such issue. I checked all ERL issues for climate change related papers (between 2006-2014) and the results are presented below.

Papers that relate to climate change are very diverse in their subjects. The papers are dealing with the climate system, the carbon cycle, climate change impacts (in biosphere for example), and climate change mitigation, to name a few. ERL publishes papers on all these. ERL publishes also some perspective articles for the studies published in ERL. Perspective articles have been excluded from this analysis because I wanted to concentrate on original research articles. Also corrections have been excluded (as they only add to an existing study). It should be noted that this analysis is based mostly on paper titles. Only in few cases where title has not been clear but has suggested the possibility of being climate change related, I might have peeked the abstract of the paper in question.

According to my results, ERL has published 1348 research articles in years 2006-2014. Of these, 888 papers relate to climate change. The percentage of climate papers is then about 65.9%. In my opinion, this is quite high percentage. Perhaps it shows that among environmental issues, climate change is an important one.

This also raises a question about whether ERL should concentrate a bit more on the other environmental issues in addition to climate change. With two thirds of papers being climate change related papers, perhaps it could be argued that ERL actually is more a climate journal than environmental journal. A peek to the papers reveals further that among the climate change related papers, ERL has published some papers that are more climate science than environmental science, although this distinction might not be very clear these days. I’m not suggesting that this is a bad thing, though.

Figure 1 shows the evolution of annual paper counts (top panel, total paper count in black and climate paper count in red) and the evolution of annual climate paper percentage in ERL (bottom panel). Paper counts increase from 2006 to 2013, but there is a drop in paper counts from 2013 to 2014. Reason for this is not clear. Between 2013 and 2014, ERL did switch from 4 issues per year to 12 issues per year but I’m not sure how this should affect the published paper count. The climate paper percentage increases from 2006 to 2010 and then drops and stays relatively stable after that. Reason for this is not clear either. Perhaps they noticed that they are turning into climate journal and made some corrective maneuvres.


I won’t include the list of ERL climate change related papers here, but the list (containing the journal volume & issue, publication year, paper title, and paper’s URL) is available upon request.

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A brief account on using Google Scholar to search for climate change related scientific literature

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 15, 2015

Today I fooled around with Google Scholar a bit. During this, I searched for papers matching the exact phrase “climate change” for year 1903. For this search, Google Scholar returned 59 “papers”. But when I looked the results more closely, I was rather disappointed. Let me tell you why.

There’s this website,, that has a link named as “Kew & Climate Change” in their bottom link bar which appears in every page of the site. Google Scholar catches this as a “citation”. This website of Kew Royal Botanic Gardens has in it “Kew Bibliographic Database” which contains entries of scientific papers, and rather lots of them and many are old ones, too. This results in Google Scholar finding that all the papers in the database match the search criteria. For more modern searches this doesn’t matter much as there are plenty of search results for “climate change” so this thing just adds a bit noise to the results. However, when searching for historical papers this flaw can make the search results meaningless as almost all the results are due to the Google Scholar’s flaw.


Fortunately, Google Scholar has an option to exclude the citations from the search (citation results can be useful, but I wonder if they should be included by default). If we exclude citations from the search above, we only get 5 hits.

Of these, 3 are still from

One result is the document:

At first glance it is obvious that this is not a peer-reviewed publication and second glance tells that it’s not from 1903 either. Apparently the document is from 2013. It also is not about climate but seems to contain all kinds of stuff, and one section does mention “a documentary about the effects of climate change on the oceans, as told by a grandfather to his 5-year-old grandson”.

One result is from The British Medical Journal:

The Róle Of Eyestrain In Civilization
George M. Gould, Sept. 19, 1903

Climate is mentioned 2 times in this article. Both of these times the exact phrase used is “change of climate”, so Google Scholar’s exact phrase search doesn’t actually search only for the exact phrase. (CORRECTION: Kevin ONeill notes in the comment section that the text actually contains “climate change”. Text has this sequence of words: ““change of climate,” “change of scene,””, where word climate is followed by word change as long as we forget the special characters, like this: “change of climate change of scene”. So, I was wrong about this, thanks to Kevin for this correction. I’ll also correct the text below for this.)

So, using default Google Scholar exact phrase search for “climate change” returned 59 results but none of them actually matched the intended search. One can argue that the article from The British Medical Journal is a quite good hit but beyond that Google Scholar returned just rubbish – 58 bad hits for one almost good hit.

Furthermore, this simple little search revealed four flaws in the Google Scholar’s search process; 1) the method for searching the citations is rubbish, 2) returned results are not always scientific documents, 3) the year assigned to document is sometimes wrong, and 4) the exact phrase search returns papers not having the exact phrase the exact phrase search catches extra phrases because it ignores special characters. Also, while not actually a flaw, the choice to include citations (and patents) by default is a poor one, in my opinion.

It might be kind of nice to have an access to real scientific search engines.

Posted in Science | 2 Comments »

New research – February and March 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on April 1, 2015

In February, I stopped providing daily new climate research posts in social media. However, I still keep an eye on new publications. Below are some new climate related papers February and March 2015. They are not ordered by subject but roughly by publication time. There are 155 papers in the list.

Attributing Observed SST Trends and Sub-Continental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979-2005

Repeated advance and retreat of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet on the continental shelf during the early Pliocene warm period

Climate change and shrinking salamanders: Alternative mechanisms for changes in plethodontid salamander body size

Sharp rise in hurricane and cyclone count during the last century

Land Carbon Sequestration within the Conterminous United States: Regional- and State-level Analyses

Does decadal climate variation influence wheat and maize production in the southeast USA?

Chances of short-term cooling estimated from a selection of CMIP5-based climate scenarios during 2006-2035 over Canada

Projection of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate in 2041-2060 by Multi-Regional and Global Climate Models

Allocation of global temperature change to consumers

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (open access)

The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

Trait-based analysis of decline in plant species ranges during the 20th century: a regional comparison between the UK and Estonia

Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

Quantifying global dust devil occurrence from meteorological analyses

Black carbon radiative forcing over the Indian Arctic station, Himadri during the Arctic Summer of 2012

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change

The legacy of our CO2 emissions: a clash of scientific facts, politics and ethics

Reef-coral refugia in a rapidly changing ocean

China’s carbon flow: 2008–2012

Internal and external forcing of sea level variability in the Black Sea

Carbon leakage: pollution, trade or politics?

Towards quantifying the increasing role of oceanic heat in sea ice loss in the new Arctic (open access)

Acting locally to mitigate globally: climate action in the Anthropocene (open access)

Recent satellite-based trends of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide over large urban agglomerations worldwide (open access)

Evidence for multidecadal variability in U.S. extreme sea level records

Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation

Analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of net primary production and their climate controls in China from 1982 to 2010

Why is socially-just climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa so challenging? A review of barriers identified from empirical cases

Challenges and adaptations of farming to climate change in the North China Plain

Drought over East Asia: A Review

Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100) (open access)

Comparing land surface phenology with leafing and flowering observations from the PlantWatch citizen network

Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt (open access)

Forestry professionals’ perceptions of climate change, impacts and adaptation strategies for forests in south-west Germany

Assessment of climate variability and change in semi-arid eastern Kenya

Mid-ocean ridge eruptions as a climate valve

Early deglacial Atlantic overturning decline and its role in atmospheric CO2 rise inferred from carbon isotopes (δ13C) (open access)

Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use

The tilt of mean sea level along the east coast of North America

Rapid disappearance of perennial ice on Canada’s most northern lake

Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming (open access)

Multiyear ice replenishment in the canadian arctic archipelago: 1997–2013

Observed and projected Changes in temperature and rainfall in Cambodia

Who cares about climate change reporting in developing countries? The market response to, and corporate accountability for, climate change in Bangladesh

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

Causality relationships between renewable energy, nuclear energy and economic growth in France

Causes of Strengthening and Weakening of ENSO Amplitude under Global Warming in Four CMIP5 Models

Growth of the Maritime Continent and its Possible Contribution to Recurring Ice Ages

The timing of autumn senescence is affected by the time of spring phenology: implications for predictive models

The summer 2012 Greenland heat wave: in situ and remote sensing observations of water vapour isotopic composition during an atmospheric river event

Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011

Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years (open access)

The impact of atmospheric pCO2 on carbon isotope ratios of the atmosphere and ocean

Early signatures of ozone trend reversal over the Antarctic (open access)

Global trends in extreme precipitation: climate models versus observations (open access)

Recent changes in the global and regional carbon cycle: analysis of first-order diagnostics (open access)

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations (open access)

Higher Laurentide and Greenland ice sheets strengthen the North Atlantic ocean circulation

The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe

Seasonal distribution and variability of atmospheric freeze/thaw cycles in Norway over the last six decades (1950–2013)

Comment on:”Soon, W., and Legates, D. R., “Solar irradiance modulation of equator-to-pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: Empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 93 (2013) 45–56.”

Response to the comment on: “Soon, W., and Legates, D.R., solar irradiance modulation of equator-to-pole (Arctic) temperature gradients: empirical evidence for climate variation on multi-decadal timescales. journal of Atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics, 93, (2013) 45-56” by F. Meunier and A. H. Reis

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and the Winter of 2014

Quantifying atmospheric methane emissions from the Haynesville, Fayetteville, and northeastern Marcellus shale gas production regions (open access)

The Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on Antarctic Sea Ice

Arctic Sea Ice Reemergence: The Role of Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Variability

Land surface temperature retrieval over circumpolar Arctic using SSM/I–SSMIS and MODIS data

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene temperatures across the Canadian Arctic and Greenland

Global estimates of boreal forest carbon stocks and flux

Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

Framing, partisan predispositions, and public opinion on climate change

Examining differences in public opinion on climate change between college students in China and the USA

Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change

How obliquity cycles powered early Pleistocene global ice-volume variability

Daily minimum and maximum surface air temperatures from geostationary satellite data

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

Quantifying sources of inter-model diversity in the cloud albedo effect (open access)

Limits to future expansion of surface-melt-enhanced ice flow into the interior of western Greenland

Envisat-derived elevation changes of the Greenland ice sheet, and a comparison with ICESat results in the accumulation area

Accelerated Mass Loss from Greenland Ice Sheet: Links to Atmospheric Circulation in the North Atlantic

Decreased calcification in the Southern Ocean over the satellite record

External influences on modeled and observed cloud trends

Contraction of the Northern Hemisphere, lower tropospheric, wintertime cold pool over the last 66 years

Estimating the anthropogenic sea surface temperature response using pattern scaling

Positive feedback of elevated CO2 on soil respiration in late autumn and winter (open access)

Detection of earlier snowmelt in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, using Landsat imagery, 1972–2013

Estimation of subsurface temperature anomaly in the Indian Ocean during recent global surface warming hiatus from satellite measurements: A support vector machine approach

A correlated shortening of the North and South American monsoon seasons in the past few decades

Too much of a good thing: sea ice extent may have forced emperor penguins into refugia during the last glacial maximum

Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reduce global warming: a modelling study

Inter-comparison of satellite sensor land surface phenology and ground phenology in Europe

Observing multi-decadal trends in Southern Ocean CO2 uptake: What can we learn from an ocean model?

Difficult decisions: Migration from Small Island Developing States under Climate Change (open access)

Recent changes in the freshwater composition east of Greenland

Contributions of Atmospheric Circulation Variability and Data Coverage Bias to the Warming Hiatus

Attribution of the Recent Winter Sea-Ice Decline over the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean

Chicago’s Heat Island and Climate Change: Bridging the Scales via Dynamical Downscaling

The origin and limits of the near proportionality between climate warming and cumulative CO2 emissions

A link between the hiatus in global warming and North American drought

Standard climate models radiation codes underestimate black carbon radiative forcing (open access)

Variations in global methane sources and sinks during 1910–2010 (open access)

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400–1800 (open access)

Rapid acidification of mode and intermediate waters in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean (open access)

Trends and drivers in global surface ocean pH over the past 3 decades (open access)

Eastern Europe’s forest cover dynamics from 1985 to 2012 quantified from the full Landsat archive

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

Decadal changes in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the late 1990s

Present and Norse Greenlandic hayfields – Insect assemblages and human impact in southern Greenland

Long-term change of CO2 latitudinal distribution in the upper troposphere

Is climate change implicated in the 2013–2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective

Spatial Patterns of Global Precipitation Change and Variability during 1901-2010

Human Lives at Risk Due to Eustatic Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Coastal Flooding in the 21st Century

Surface elevation and mass changes of all Swiss glaciers 1980–2010 (open access)

Spatial patterns in glacier characteristics and area changes from 1962 to 2006 in the Kanchenjunga–Sikkim area, eastern Himalaya (open access)

Reviews and Syntheses: Responses of coccolithophores to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis (open access)

Estimation of mass balance of Dongkemadi glaciers with multiple methods based on multi-mission satellite data

Links between media communication and local perceptions of climate change in an indigenous society

Revealing hidden evolutionary capacity to cope with global change

The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming

Predicting a change in the order of spring phenology in temperate forests (open access)

Nighttime lights and population changes in Europe 1992–2012

The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission (open access)

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century (open access)

Do growing degree days predict phenology across butterfly species?

Predicting long-term carbon sequestration in response to CO2 enrichment: How and why do current ecosystem models differ

Interdecadal change of Eurasian snow, surface temperature and atmospheric circulation in the late 1980s

Climate response to externally mixed black carbon as a function of altitude

Summer-to-winter sea-ice linkage between the Arctic Ocean and the Okhotsk Sea through atmospheric circulation

Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing

Recent California Water Year Precipitation Deficits: A 440-year Perspective

Variability and trends in U.S. cloud cover: ISCCP, PATMOS-x, and CLARA-A1 compared to homogeneity-adjusted weather observations

Changes in the southeast Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, between ~ 1890 and 2010 (open access)

Contending estimates of 2003–2008 glacier mass balance over the Pamir–Karakoram–Himalaya (open access)

North American terrestrial CO2 uptake largely offset by CH4 and N2O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget (open access)

Regional atmospheric patterns and the delayed sea-ice freeze-up in the western Arctic

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

Managing the nitrogen cycle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from crop production and biofuel expansion

Hasty retreat of glaciers in northern Patagonia from 1985 to 2011

Volume measurements of Mittivakkat Gletscher, southeast Greenland

Quantifying the net contribution of the historical Amazonian deforestation to climate change

An analysis of global aerosol type as retrieved by MISR

Climate radiative feedbacks and adjustments at the Earth’s surface

The impact of geomagnetic spikes on the production rates of cosmogenic 14C and 10Be in the Earth’s atmosphere

North Atlantic stormtrack sensitivity to warming increases with model resolution

Characterizing Arctic Spring Onset

A global data set of the extent of irrigated land from 1900 to 2005

Spatio-Temporal Trend Analysis of Air Temperature in Europe and Western Asia using Data-Coupled Clustering

Bimodality and regime behavior in atmosphere–ocean interactions during the recent climate change

Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response

The relationship between climate change concern and national wealth

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Ozone Response

Polarized frames on “climate change” and “global warming” across countries and states: Evidence from Twitter big data

Bridging science and community knowledge? The complicating role of natural variability in perceptions of climate change

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New research – January 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on February 2, 2015

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during January 2015. There are 145 papers, which makes it about 4.7 papers per day.


ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Global hourly land surface air temperature datasets: inter-comparison and climate change [ABSTRACT]

Recent global warming hiatus dominated by low latitude temperature trends in surface and troposphere data [ABSTRACT]

The global warming hiatus—a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation [ABSTRACT]

The recent global-warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability? [ABSTRACT]

Ratios of record high to record low temperatures in Europe exhibit sharp increases since 2000 despite a slowdown in the rise of mean temperatures [ABSTRACT]

China experiences the recent warming hiatus [ABSTRACT]

Regions of significant influence on unforced global mean surface air temperature variability in climate models [ABSTRACT]

The impact of urbanization and the urban heat island effect on day to day temperature variation [ABSTRACT]

Seasonality in Future Tropical Lower Stratospheric Temperature Trends [ABSTRACT]

Spatial and temporal temperature trends in the lower stratosphere during the extended boreal winter from reanalyses [ABSTRACT]

Recent changes in Georgia’s temperature means and extremes: Annual and seasonal trends between 1961 and 2010 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Assessing the accuracy of the climate data of the grid database (CRU TS 2.1) in the territory of Kazakhstan [ABSTRACT]

Climate change in the City of Àlmaty during the past 120 years [ABSTRACT]

Recent changes of temperature extremes over Italy: an index-based analysis [ABSTRACT]

Artificial Amplification of Warming Trends Across the Mountains of the Western United States [ABSTRACT]

Earth’s energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models [ABSTRACT]

A comparison between simulated and observed surface energy balance at the Svalbard archipelago [ABSTRACT]

Designing Detection and Attribution simulations for CMIP6 to Optimize the Estimation of Greenhouse-gas Induced Warming [ABSTRACT]

Skill of regional and global model forecast over Indian region [ABSTRACT]

Modelling long-term monthly temperatures by several data-driven methods using geographical inputs [ABSTRACT]

A historical perspective on climate change assessment [ABSTRACT]

The elevation dependency of 21st century European climate change: an RCM ensemble perspective [ABSTRACT]

Erythemal ultraviolet irradiation trends in the Iberian Peninsula from 1950 to 2011 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Empirical Removal of Artifacts from the ISCCP and PATMOS-x Satellite Cloud Records [ABSTRACT]

A global survey of cloud overlap based on CALIPSO and CloudSat measurements (open access) [ABSTRACT]

The influence of cloud feedbacks on equatorial Atlantic variability [ABSTRACT]

Circulation response to warming shaped by radiative changes of clouds and water vapour [ABSTRACT]

Impact of aerosol radiative effects on 2000–2010 surface temperatures [ABSTRACT]

A standardized global climate model study showing unique properties for the climate response to black carbon aerosols [ABSTRACT]

In-situ observations of black carbon in snow and the corresponding spectral surface albedo reduction [ABSTRACT]

Carbon storage versus albedo change: radiative forcing of forest expansion in temperate mountainous regions of Switzerland (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Projected Changes in Climate Extremes over the Northeastern United States [ABSTRACT]

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas (open accerss) [ABSTRACT]

Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the U.S [ABSTRACT]

Climatology, Storm Morphologies, and Environments of Tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012 [ABSTRACT]

Low frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region [ABSTRACT]

European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach [ABSTRACT]

Estimating the water needed to end the drought or reduce the drought severity in the Carpathian region (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Joining Forces in a Global Flood Partnership (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? [ABSTRACT]

A New Metric for Indian Monsoon Rainfall Extremes [ABSTRACT]

An observational evidence of decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the recent three decades of global warming era [ABSTRACT]

Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Recent summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in a historical perspective (open access) [ABSTRACT]

A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO [ABSTRACT]

Impacts of the Atlantic Equatorial Mode in a warmer climate (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Impact of anomalous northward oceanic heat transport on global climate in a slab-ocean setting [ABSTRACT]

A surface wind extremes (“Wind Lulls” and “Wind Blows”) climatology for central North America and adjoining oceans (1979-2012) [ABSTRACT]

Detectability of CO2 flux signals by a space-based lidar mission [ABSTRACT]

Constructing accurate maps of atmospheric water vapor by combining interferometric synthetic aperture radar and GNSS observations [ABSTRACT]

Spatial and temporal variability of water vapor pressure in the arid region of northwest China, during 1961–2011 [ABSTRACT]

The Montreal Protocol: how today’s successes offer a pathway to the future [ABSTRACT]

Lessons from the stratospheric ozone layer protection for climate [ABSTRACT]

Global versus local effects on climate change in Asia [ABSTRACT]

Internal climate memory in observations and models [ABSTRACT]

Gordon Valentine Manley and his contribution to the study of climate change: a review of his life and work (open access) [ABSTRACT]


The Arctic is unravelling [ABSTRACT]

Sudden drainage of a subglacial lake beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Mass changes in Arctic ice caps and glaciers: implications of regionalizing elevation changes (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Glacier change in the Cariboo Mountains, British Columbia, Canada (1952–2005) (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Stable climate and surface mass balance in Svalbard over 1979–2013 despite the Arctic warming (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Quantifying mass balance processes on the Southern Patagonia Icefield (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Underwater acoustic signatures of glacier calving [ABSTRACT]

Arctic warming: nonlinear impacts of sea-ice and glacier melt on seabird foraging [ABSTRACT]

The role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the zonal mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss [ABSTRACT]

The role of atmospheric uncertainty in Arctic summer sea ice data assimilation and prediction [ABSTRACT]

Seasonal ice loss in the Beaufort Sea: Toward synchrony and prediction [ABSTRACT]

The refreezing of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice [ABSTRACT]

Large amounts of labile organic carbon in permafrost soils of Northern Alaska [ABSTRACT]

Observing Muostakh disappear: permafrost thaw subsidence and erosion of a ground-ice-rich island in response to arctic summer warming and sea ice reduction (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate (open access) [ABSTRACT]

The sensitivity of wet and dry tropical forests to climate change in Bolivia [ABSTRACT]

Long-term changes in soil pH across major forest ecosystems in China [ABSTRACT]

Regional Variations in Potential Plant Habitat Changes in Response to Multiple Global Warming Scenarios [ABSTRACT]

Biosphere-climate interactions in a changing climate over North America [ABSTRACT]

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras [ABSTRACT]

A review of the biophysical impacts of climate change in three hotspot regions in Africa and Asia [ABSTRACT]

Is drought-induced forest dieback globally increasing? (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Tree growth variation in the tropical forest: understanding effects of temperature, rainfall and CO2 [ABSTRACT]

Rain events decrease boreal peatland net CO2 uptake through reduced light availability [ABSTRACT]

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Has the advancing onset of spring vegetation green-up slowed down or changed abruptly over the last three decades? [ABSTRACT]

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology [ABSTRACT]

Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change [ABSTRACT]

Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo’s orang-utans (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Asymmetric impact of the physiological effect of carbon dioxide on hydrological responses to instantaneous negative and positive CO2 forcing [ABSTRACT]

Potential predictability of malaria in Africa using ECMWF monthly and seasonal climate forecasts [ABSTRACT]

Climate change and marine benthos: a review of existing research and future directions in the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT]

Chlorophyll a reconstruction from in-situ measurements, Part II: Marked carbon uptake decrease in the last century [ABSTRACT]

Climate change enhances primary production in the western antarctic peninsula [ABSTRACT]

Ocean acidification along the 24.5°N section in the subtropical North Atlantic [ABSTRACT]

Ocean acidification accelerates dissolution of experimental coral reef communities (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Acidification effects on biofouling communities: winners and losers (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Secondary calcification and dissolution respond differently to future ocean conditions (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Calcification is not the Achilles’ heel of cold-water corals in an acidifying ocean [ABSTRACT]

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change [ABSTRACT]

Improved sea level record over the satellite altimetry era (1993–2010) from the Climate Change Initiative project (open access) [ABSTRACT]

The Global Impacts of Extreme Sea-Level Rise: A Comprehensive Economic Assessment (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Importance and origin of halosteric contribution to sea level change in the southeast Indian Ocean during 2005-2013 [ABSTRACT]

Impact of Greenland orography on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [ABSTRACT]

Detecting changes in marine responses to ENSO from 850–2100 CE: insights from the ocean carbon cycle [ABSTRACT]

Rising atmospheric CO2 leads to large impact of biology on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake via changes of the Revelle factor [ABSTRACT]

The age of river-transported carbon: a global perspective [ABSTRACT]

Peru-Chile upwelling dynamics under climate change [ABSTRACT]

Decrease in water clarity of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th-century [ABSTRACT]

The response of lake variations to climate change in the past forty years: A case study of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and adjacent areas, China [ABSTRACT]

Climate driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by CGPS geodesy [ABSTRACT]

Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models [ABSTRACT]

How Climate Change Affects Extremes in Maize and Wheat Yield in Two Cropping Regions [ABSTRACT]

Projected changes in Malawi’s growing season [ABSTRACT]

Assessing the limits of bias correcting climate model outputs for climate change impact studies [ABSTRACT]


Top-down estimates of European CH4 and N2O emissions based on four different inverse models (open access) [ABSTRACT]

North America’s net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Axial-obliquity control on the greenhouse carbon budget through mid- to high-latitude reservoirs [ABSTRACT]

Environmental impacts of electricity generation at global, regional and national scales in 1980-2011: What can we learn for future energy planning? [ABSTRACT]

A missing link? The case of Norway and Sweden: Does increased renewable energy production impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions? [ABSTRACT]

Uncertainties in future energy demand in UK residential heating [ABSTRACT]

The potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the UK through healthy and realistic dietary change [ABSTRACT]

Mapping the scientific research on life cycle assessment: a bibliometric analysis [ABSTRACT]

Scenario analysis of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Darjeeling tea [ABSTRACT]

Dual high-stake emerging technologies: a review of the climate engineering research literature (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering [ABSTRACT]

The potential contribution to climate change mitigation from temporary carbon storage in biomaterials [ABSTRACT]

Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions [ABSTRACT]

Labeling opinions in the climate debate: a critical review [ABSTRACT]


Measuring the skill of variance-scaled climate reconstructions and a test for the capture of extremes [ABSTRACT]

Holocene shifts of the Southern Westerlies across the South Atlantic [ABSTRACT]

A deadly cocktail: How a drought around 4200 cal. yr BP caused mass mortality events at the infamous ‘dodo swamp’ in Mauritius [ABSTRACT]

An aggregated climate teleconnection index linked to historical Egyptian famines of the last thousand years [ABSTRACT]

Early to middle Miocene vegetation history of Antarctica supports eccentricity-paced warming intervals during the Antarctic icehouse phase [ABSTRACT]

Tree ring effects and ice core acidities clarify the volcanic record of the first millennium (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Human adaptation strategies to abrupt climate change in Puerto Rico ca. 3.5 ka [ABSTRACT]

Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene [ABSTRACT]

Tree ring evidence of late summer warming in Sikkim, northeast India [ABSTRACT]

Shrubs tracing sea surface temperature—Calluna vulgaris on the Faroe Islands [ABSTRACT]

Stable “Waterbelt” climates controlled by tropical ocean heat transport: a non-linear coupled climate mechanism of relevance to Snowball Earth [ABSTRACT]

Tree-ring δ18O in African mahogany (Entandrophragma utile) records regional precipitation and can be used for climate reconstructions [ABSTRACT]


Crowdsourcing for climate and atmospheric sciences: current status and future potential [ABSTRACT]

The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration [ABSTRACT]

When the long run matters [ABSTRACT]

Estimates of global dew collection potential on artificial surfaces (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Posted in Climate science | 1 Comment »

New research – December 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 31, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during December 2014. There are 127 papers, which makes it about 4.1 papers per day.


Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength ABSTRACT
Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: Understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies ABSTRACT
Long-term changes in summer temperature anomaly patterns in Japan since the early 20th century ABSTRACT
Time irreversibility of mean temperature anomaly variations over China ABSTRACT
Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation ABSTRACT
The Oslo temperature series 1837–2012: homogeneity testing and temperature analysis ABSTRACT
Decadal variability of clouds, solar radiation and temperature at a high-latitude coastal site in Norway (open access) ABSTRACT
Using land cover, population and night light data for assessing local temperature differences in Mainz, Germany ABSTRACT
Is the Monthly Temperature Climate of the United States Becoming More Extreme? ABSTRACT
Variations in extreme temperature and precipitation for a Caribbean island: Trinidad ABSTRACT
World’s greatest rainfall intensities observed by satellites ABSTRACT
Changing characteristics of precipitation during 1960–2012 in Inner Mongolia, northern China ABSTRACT
Hierarchical analysis of rainfall variability across Nigeria ABSTRACT
Small lakes show muted climate change signal in deep-water temperatures ABSTRACT
Spectral signatures of Earth’s climate variability over 5 years from IASI ABSTRACT
Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake ABSTRACT
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission (open access) ABSTRACT
Understanding the systematic air temperature biases in a coupled climate system model through a process-based decomposition method ABSTRACT
Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4 (open access) ABSTRACT
Relationship between sunshine duration and air temperature and contemporary global warming ABSTRACT
Seasonal cycle and long-term trend of solar energy fluxes through Arctic sea ice (open access) ABSTRACT
Effects of Arctic haze on surface cloud radiative forcing ABSTRACT
On the role of sulfates in recent global warming: a Granger causality analysis ABSTRACT
Observed multi-variable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity ABSTRACT
Evaluating biases in simulated snow albedo feedback in two generations of climate models ABSTRACT
Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change (open access) ABSTRACT
Assessing climatic impacts of future land use and land cover change projected with the CanESM2 model ABSTRACT
Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland (open access) ABSTRACT
Arctic greening can cause earlier seasonality of Arctic amplification ABSTRACT
The extreme drought episode of August 2011–May 2012 in the Czech Republic ABSTRACT
How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought? ABSTRACT
Global Warming and Changes in Risk of Concurrent Climate Extremes: Insights from the 2014 California Drought ABSTRACT
Investigating uncertainties in global gridded datasets of climate extremes (open access) ABSTRACT
Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world (open access) ABSTRACT
Future increase of super-typhoon intensity associated with climate change ABSTRACT
The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States ABSTRACT
Fatalities of neglect: adapt to more intense hurricanes under global warming? ABSTRACT
Are Special Processes At Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones? ABSTRACT
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate (open access) ABSTRACT
The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks ABSTRACT
Understanding the El Niño-like oceanic response in the tropical Pacific to global warming ABSTRACT
ENSO influence upon global temperature in nature and in CMIP5 simulations ABSTRACT
The Curious Case of the El Niño That Never Happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting (open access) ABSTRACT
Land surface anomalies preceding the 2010 Russian heat wave and a link to the North Atlantic oscillation (open access) ABSTRACT
The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Iraqi climate 1982–2000 ABSTRACT
Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies (open access) ABSTRACT
Stratospheric ozone depletion from future nitrous oxide increases (open access) ABSTRACT
The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate (open access) ABSTRACT
Is the present the key to the future? ABSTRACT
Practising historical climatology in West Africa: a climatic periodisation 1750–1800 ABSTRACT


Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale ABSTRACT
Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000–2013) (open access) ABSTRACT
Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake ABSTRACT
Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods (open access) ABSTRACT
Direct measurement of glacier thinning on the southern Tibetan Plateau (Gurenhekou, Kangwure and Naimona’Nyi glaciers) ABSTRACT
Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography (open access) ABSTRACT
Post-LIA glacier changes along a latitudinal transect in the Central Italian Alps (open access) ABSTRACT
Glacier topography and elevation changes derived from Pléiades sub-meter stereo images (open access) ABSTRACT
Rapid dynamic activation of a marine-based Arctic ice cap ABSTRACT
Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review (open access) ABSTRACT
Atmospheric Response in Summer linked to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss ABSTRACT
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss ABSTRACT
Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years ABSTRACT
Temperature sensitivity as an explanation of the latitudinal pattern of green-up date trend in Northern Hemisphere vegetation during 1982–2008 ABSTRACT
No growth stimulation of tropical trees by 150 years of CO2 fertilization but water-use efficiency increased ABSTRACT
Greater deciduous shrub abundance extends tundra peak season and increases modeled net CO2 uptake ABSTRACT
Temperature-induced recruitment pulses of Arctic dwarf shrub communities ABSTRACT
Assessing phenological change and climatic control of alpine grasslands in the Tibetan Plateau with MODIS time series ABSTRACT
Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas ABSTRACT
Climate-induced changes in host tree-insect phenology may drive ecological state-shift in boreal forest ABSTRACT
General patterns of acclimation of leaf respiration to elevated temperatures across biomes and plant types ABSTRACT
Fruitful factors: what limits seed production of flowering plants in the alpine? ABSTRACT
Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change ABSTRACT
Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain ABSTRACT
Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate (open access) ABSTRACT
Limpets counteract ocean acidification induced shell corrosion by thickening of aragonitic shell layers (open access) ABSTRACT
Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk (open access) ABSTRACT
Galápagos Coral Reef Persistence after ENSO Warming Across an Acidification Gradient ABSTRACT
Detecting and understanding the accelerated sea level rise along the east coast of U.S. during recent decades ABSTRACT
How the AMOC affects ocean temperatures on decadal to centennial timescales: the North Atlantic versus an interhemispheric seesaw ABSTRACT
Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ABSTRACT
Critical elevation levels for flooding due to sea-level rise in Hawai‘i ABSTRACT
From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise (open access) ABSTRACT
Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy (open access) ABSTRACT
Multimodel simulations of Arctic Ocean sea surface height variability in the period 1970–2009 ABSTRACT
Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle In CMIP5 projections (open access) ABSTRACT
Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A. ABSTRACT
On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century (open access) ABSTRACT
Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations (open access) ABSTRACT
Responses of global terrestrial evapotranspiration to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century (open access) ABSTRACT
Diurnal temperature range and short-term mortality in large US communities ABSTRACT
Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China ABSTRACT
Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods ABSTRACT
Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area ABSTRACT


Satellite-inferred European carbon sink larger than expected (open access) ABSTRACT
Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps (open access) ABSTRACT
Nitrogen availability reduces CMIP5 projections of 21st century land carbon uptake ABSTRACT
Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space ABSTRACT
Net regional methane sink in High Arctic soils of northeast Greenland ABSTRACT
Managing short-lived climate forcers in curbing climate change: an atmospheric chemistry synopsis ABSTRACT
Key role for nuclear energy in global biodiversity conservation (open access) ABSTRACT
China’s approach to nuclear safety — From the perspective of policy and institutional system ABSTRACT
Radioactivity impacts of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident on the atmosphere ABSTRACT
Effects of Climate Oscillations on Wind Resource Variability in the United States ABSTRACT
Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model (open access) ABSTRACT
The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration Policies for Climate Change Mitigation ABSTRACT
Increase in surface albedo caused by agricultural plastic film ABSTRACT
Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors, and sulfate and titania aerosols ABSTRACT
Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable (open access) ABSTRACT
Unilateral Climate Policies: Incentives and Effects ABSTRACT
Corruption and Climate Change Policies: Do the Bad Old Days Matter? ABSTRACT
Disentangling the ranges: climate policy scenarios for China and India ABSTRACT
People as sensors: Mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter ABSTRACT
Perceptions of climate change risk in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns ABSTRACT
Social vulnerability in three high-poverty climate change hot spots: What does the climate change literature tell us? ABSTRACT
Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change ABSTRACT


Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years (open access) ABSTRACT
Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: A critical evaluation of methods ABSTRACT
Early summer temperatures reconstructed from black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) tree-ring widths from Albania ABSTRACT
Damaging hailstorms in South Moravia, Czech Republic, in the seventeenth to twentieth centuries as derived from taxation records ABSTRACT
Millennial meridional dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last termination (open access) ABSTRACT
Interdecadal Pacific variability and eastern Australian mega-droughts over the last millennium ABSTRACT
Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum ABSTRACT
Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium (open access) ABSTRACT
Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present ABSTRACT


Detecting change in urban areas at continental scales with MODIS data ABSTRACT
Is the Anthropocene really worthy of a formal geologic definition? (open access) ABSTRACT

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

New research – November 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 3, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during November 2014. There are 119 papers, which makes it about 4.0 papers per day.


Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins [ABSTRACT]

Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Measuring persistence in time series of temperature anomalies [ABSTRACT]

HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Antarctic bottom water temperature changes in the western South Atlantic from 1989-2014 [ABSTRACT]

Recalibration and Merging of SSU Observations for Stratospheric Temperature Trend Studies [ABSTRACT]

Observed groundwater temperature response to recent climate change (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies [ABSTRACT]

Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present [ABSTRACT]

Tropical Temperature Trends in AMIP Simulations and the Impact of SST Uncertainties [ABSTRACT]

Climate variations in northern Xinjiang of China over the past 50 years under global warming [ABSTRACT]

Interannual variations and trends in surface air temperature in Finland in relation to atmospheric circulation patterns, 1961–2011 [ABSTRACT]

Temperature changes in the North-Western Italian Alps from 1961 to 2010 [ABSTRACT]

Spatiotemporal characterization of land surface temperature in Mount Kilimanjaro using satellite data [ABSTRACT]

Early-nineteenth-century southern African precipitation reconstructions from ships’ logbooks [ABSTRACT]

Climate change in Argentina: trends, projections, impacts and adaptation [ABSTRACT]

Variability of surface air temperature in Tampico, northeastern Mexico [ABSTRACT]

Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes for the Southeastern United States: 1948-2012 [ABSTRACT]

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA [ABSTRACT]

Why Logarithmic? A Note on the Dependence of Radiative Forcing on Gas Concentration [ABSTRACT]

Earth’s Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Has Coarse Ocean Resolution Biased Simulations of Transient Climate Sensitivity? [ABSTRACT]

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability [ABSTRACT]

Global climate models’ bias in surface temperature trends and variability [ABSTRACT]

The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models [ABSTRACT]

The spectral dimension of longwave feedbacks in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 experiments [ABSTRACT]

Where and when will we observe cloud changes due to climate warming? [ABSTRACT]

A satellite view of the radiative impact of clouds on surface downward fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau [ABSTRACT]

Aerosol indirect effects on continental low-level clouds over Sweden and Finland (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Effect of ions on the measurement of sulfuric acid in the CLOUD experiment at CERN (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Climate coupling between temperature, humidity, precipitation and cloud cover over the Canadian Prairies [ABSTRACT]

Uncertainty in the magnitude of aerosol-cloud radiative forcing over recent decades [ABSTRACT]

Role of snow-albedo feedback in higher elevation warming over the Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Solar heating of the Arctic Ocean in the context of ice-albedo feedback [ABSTRACT]

Assessment of sea-ice albedo radiative forcing and feedback over the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2009 using satellite and reanalysis data [ABSTRACT]

Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Variability of tornado climatology across the continental United States [ABSTRACT]

Eastern Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency from 1851–1898 is comparable to satellite era frequency (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Extratropical cyclones in a warmer, moister climate: A recent Atlantic analogue [ABSTRACT]

The Effect of Urbanisation on The Climatology of Thunderstorm Initiation [ABSTRACT]

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Heavy precipitation events over the Euro-Mediterranean region in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models [ABSTRACT]

Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes [ABSTRACT]

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability [ABSTRACT]

Southward displacement of the upper atmosphere zonal Jet in the eastern north Pacific due to global warming [ABSTRACT]

Variations of stratospheric water vapor over the past three decades [ABSTRACT]

Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone dataset [ABSTRACT]

Aerosol effects on global land surface energy fluxes during 2003-2010 [ABSTRACT]

Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change [ABSTRACT]

On the role of plant volatiles in anthropogenic global climate change [ABSTRACT]


The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Sustained high basal motion of the Greenland ice sheet revealed by borehole deformation [ABSTRACT]

Detailed ice loss pattern in the northern Antarctic Peninsula: widespread decline driven by ice front retreats (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Climate variability and Alpine glaciers evolution in Northwestern Italy from the Little Ice Age to the 2010s [ABSTRACT]

Satellite-derived volume loss rates and glacier speeds for the Juneau Icefield, Alaska [ABSTRACT]

Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Year Trends [ABSTRACT]

Trend and Inter-Annual Variability in Southeast Greenland Sea Ice: Impacts on Coastal Greenland Climate Variability [ABSTRACT]

Snowmelt onset over Arctic sea ice from passive microwave satellite data: 1979–2012 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Assessment of radar-derived snow depth over Arctic sea ice [ABSTRACT]

New perspectives on observed and simulated late Antarctic sea ice extent trends using optimal fingerprinting techniques [ABSTRACT]

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem [ABSTRACT]

Thick and deformed Antarctic sea ice mapped with autonomous underwater vehicles [ABSTRACT]

Anthropogenic influence on recent circulation-driven Antarctic sea-ice changes [ABSTRACT]

A mechanism for lack of sea ice reversibility in the Southern Ocean [ABSTRACT]

Plant growth enhancement by elevated CO2 eliminated by joint water and nitrogen limitation [ABSTRACT]

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years [ABSTRACT]

Ground and satellite based evidence of the biophysical mechanisms behind the greening Sahel [ABSTRACT]

Phenological responses to climate change do not exhibit phylogenetic signal in a subalpine plant community [ABSTRACT]

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency [ABSTRACT]

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Not just about sunburn – the ozone hole’s profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems [ABSTRACT]

Extreme weather event in spring 2013 delayed breeding time of Great Tit and Blue Tit (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates [ABSTRACT]

Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change [ABSTRACT]

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models [ABSTRACT]

Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs [ABSTRACT]

Interactive effects of ocean acidification and rising sea temperatures alter predation rate and predator selectivity in reef fish communities [ABSTRACT]

Ocean acidification in eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (1962-2012) (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Multimodel analysis on the response of the AMOC under an increase of radiative forcing and its symmetrical reversal [ABSTRACT]

Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Uncertainty in 21st century CMIP5 sea level projections [ABSTRACT]

Earliest local emergence of forced dynamic and steric sea-level trends in climate models (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Changes in the North Pacific wave climate since the mid-1990s [ABSTRACT]

Detection and attribution of climate change signal in ocean wind waves [ABSTRACT]

Contemporary Ocean Warming Dissociates Cascadia Margin Gas Hydrates [ABSTRACT]

Climate change and dead zones [ABSTRACT]

Inherited hypoxia: A new challenge for reoligotrophicated lakes under global warming [ABSTRACT]

The use of changes in small coastal Atlantic brooks in southwestern Europe as indicators of anthropogenic and climatic impacts over the last 400 years [ABSTRACT]

Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation [ABSTRACT]

Investigating high mortality during the cold season: mapping mean weather patterns of temperature and pressure [ABSTRACT]


Dominance of the Southern Ocean in anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models [ABSTRACT]

Carbon stock loss from deforestation through 2013 in Brazilian Amazonia [ABSTRACT]

A downward CO2 flux seems to have nowhere to go (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Forecasting global atmospheric CO2 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

CH4 and N2O emissions embodied in international trade of meat (open access) [ABSTRACT]

A sustainable “building block”?: The paradoxical effects of thermal efficiency on U.S. power plants’ CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT]

Key factors for assessing climate benefits of natural gas versus coal electricity generation [ABSTRACT]

Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections [ABSTRACT]

Emerging policy perspectives on geoengineering: An international comparison (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Counteracting the climate effects of volcanic eruptions using short-lived greenhouse gases [ABSTRACT]

Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run [ABSTRACT]

A critical examination of the consumption-based accounting approach: has the blaming of consumers gone too far? [ABSTRACT]

Representations of the future in English language blogs on climate change [ABSTRACT]

Conspiratory fascination versus public interest: the case of ‘climategate’ (open access) [ABSTRACT]

International trends in public perceptions of climate change over the past quarter century (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Politics eclipses climate extremes for climate change perceptions [ABSTRACT]

Citizen acceptance of new fossil fuel infrastructure: Value theory and Canada׳s Northern Gateway Pipeline [ABSTRACT]

Agricultural Advisors as Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences in Capacity to Communicate Climate [ABSTRACT]

Potential effects of climate change on global security [ABSTRACT]

Tools and strategies for climate change decision making [ABSTRACT]

When decision-making processes fail: an argument for robust climate adaptation planning in the face of uncertainty [ABSTRACT]

Adaptation strategies to climate change in the Arctic: a global patchwork of reactive community-scale initiatives [ABSTRACT]


On the bipolar origin of Heinrich events [ABSTRACT]

Correlation between solar activity and the local temperature of Antarctica during the past 11,000 years [ABSTRACT]

Pliocene switch in orbital-scale carbon cycle/climate dynamics [ABSTRACT]


Glacier-like forms on Mars (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Episodic warming of early Mars by punctuated volcanism [ABSTRACT]

Posted in Climate science | Leave a Comment »

New research – October 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 9, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during October 2014. There are 154 papers, which makes it about 5.0 papers per day.


An Investigation into the Impact of using Various Techniques to Estimate Arctic Surface Air Temperature Anomalies [ABSTRACT]

Impact of atmosphere and land surface initial conditions on seasonal forecast of global surface temperature [ABSTRACT]

Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century [ABSTRACT]

The effects of urbanization on the rise of the European temperature since 1960 [ABSTRACT]

Asymmetry of winter European surface air temperature extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation [ABSTRACT]

Climatology of upper air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean region [ABSTRACT]

Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern China (1960–2011) [ABSTRACT]

Temperature trend–altitude relationship in China during 1963–2012 [ABSTRACT]

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4), Part I. Upgrades and Intercomparisons [ABSTRACT]

Artifacts in variations of ocean heat content induced by the observation system changes [ABSTRACT]

Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison [ABSTRACT]

Mixed layer heat and salinity budgets during the onset of the 2011 Atlantic cold tongue [ABSTRACT]

Regional precipitation simulations for the mid-1970s shift and early-2000s hiatus [ABSTRACT]

The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models (open access) [ABSTRACT]

An analysis of rainfall across the British Isles in the 1870s [ABSTRACT]

Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India [ABSTRACT]

Climate signals in the mid to high latitude North Atlantic from altimeter observations [ABSTRACT]

Climate change in Kazakhstan during the past 70 years [ABSTRACT]

Evaluation of the CFSv2 CMIP5 decadal predictions [ABSTRACT]

Identifying and removing structural biases in climate models with history matching [ABSTRACT]

Hedging the climate sensitivity risks of a temperature target [ABSTRACT]

Regional variation of the tropical water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks [ABSTRACT]

Comparison of decadal global water vapor changes derived from independent satellite time series [ABSTRACT]

An important mechanism sustaining the atmospheric “water tower” over the Tibetan Plateau (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Evaluation of ISCCP cloud amount with MODIS observations [ABSTRACT]

Cloud effects on the solar and thermal radiation budgets of the Mediterranean basin [ABSTRACT]

Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land-cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land-use harmonization, radiative kernels and reanalysis [ABSTRACT]

Decreased surface albedo driven by denser vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Changes in the land surface energy budget in eastern China over the past three decades: contributions of land cover change and climate change [ABSTRACT]

On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change [ABSTRACT]

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world [ABSTRACT]

‘Category-6’ Supertyphoon Haiyan in Global Warming Hiatus: Contribution from Subsurface Ocean Warming [ABSTRACT]

Changes in U.S. East Coast cyclone dynamics with climate change [ABSTRACT]

Modulation of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905-2011 [ABSTRACT]

Interannual variation of the Philippines affecting tropical cyclone intensity and its possible causes [ABSTRACT]

Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced? [ABSTRACT]

Summer droughts in the northern Yellow River basin in association with recent Arctic ice loss [ABSTRACT]

Drivers of soil drying in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2012 [ABSTRACT]

Satellite night-time lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide [ABSTRACT]

Estimation of peak discharges of historical floods (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Climate change or variable weather: rethinking Danish homeowners’ perceptions of floods and climate [ABSTRACT]

Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects [ABSTRACT]

Equatorial Pacific coral geochemical records show recent weakening of the Walker Circulation [ABSTRACT]

Changes in atmospheric blocking characteristics within Euro-Atlantic region and Northern Hemisphere as a whole in the 21st century from model simulations using RCP anthropogenic scenarios [ABSTRACT]

Atmospheric Fronts in Current and Future Climates [ABSTRACT]

Role of sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice and Siberian snow in forcing the atmospheric circulation in winter of 2012–2013 [ABSTRACT]

Separating the influence of temperature, drought and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 [ABSTRACT]

How sensitive is the recovery of stratospheric ozone to changes in concentrations of very short-lived bromocarbons? (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Biases in Southern Hemisphere climate trends induced by coarsely specifying the temporal resolution of stratospheric ozone [ABSTRACT]

Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Trends in sulfate and organic aerosol mass in the Southeast U.S.: Impact on aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing [ABSTRACT]

Mapping atmospheric aerosols with a citizen science network of smartphone spectropolarimeters (open access) [ABSTRACT]

International Climate Assessment & Dataset (ICA&D): climate services across borders [ABSTRACT]

On Mars too, expect macroweather [ABSTRACT]


Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to perturbations in sea surface temperature and sea ice cover: a study with the regional climate model MAR (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Distinct patterns of seasonal Greenland glacier velocity [ABSTRACT]

Ocean change around Greenland under a warming climate [ABSTRACT]

The large-scale climate in response to the retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet [ABSTRACT]

Surface velocity and mass balance of Livingston Island ice cap, Antarctica (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Mass changes of outlet glaciers along the Nordensjköld Coast, northern Antarctic Peninsula, based on TanDEM-X satellite measurements [ABSTRACT]

Climate change impacts in polar-regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives [ABSTRACT]

A database of worldwide glacier thickness observations (open access) [ABSTRACT]

The days of plenty might soon be over in glacierized Central Asian catchments (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Glacier area and length changes in Norway from repeat inventories (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Assessment of heat sources on the control of fast flow of Vestfonna ice cap, Svalbard (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Subtropical iceberg scours and meltwater routing in the deglacial western North Atlantic [ABSTRACT]

Variability in categories of Arctic sea ice in Fram Strait [ABSTRACT]

Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill? [ABSTRACT]

Synoptic Activity Associated with Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic [ABSTRACT]

Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades [ABSTRACT]

Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi-decadal timescales [ABSTRACT]

Modeling the evolution of climate-sensitive Arctic subsea permafrost in regions of extensive gas expulsion at the West Yamal shelf [ABSTRACT]

Using dissolved organic matter age and composition to detect permafrost thaw in boreal watersheds of interior Alaska [ABSTRACT]

Introduction to GlobSnow Snow Extent products with considerations for accuracy assessment [ABSTRACT]

Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Black carbon and other light-absorbing particles in snow of central North America [ABSTRACT]

Urban impacts of ice storms: Toronto December 2013 [ABSTRACT]

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management [ABSTRACT]

Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs [ABSTRACT]

Temporal context affects the observed rate of climate-driven range shifts in tree species (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Soil contribution to carbon budget of Russian forests [ABSTRACT]

Predicting competitive shifts and responses to climate change based on latitudinal distributions of species assemblages [ABSTRACT]

Geographical pattern in first bloom variability and its relation to temperature sensitivity in the USA and China [ABSTRACT]

Heat and drought extremes likely to stress ecosystem productivity equally or more in a warmer, CO2 rich future (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Assessment of rates of deforestation classes in the Paraguayan Chaco (Great South American Chaco) with comments on the vulnerability of forests fragments to climate change [ABSTRACT]

Long-term hurricane damage effects on tropical forest tree growth and mortality [ABSTRACT]

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America’s winter bird communities [ABSTRACT]

Climate change and lizards: changing species’ geographic ranges in Patagonia [ABSTRACT]

Regionalized global budget of the CO2 exchange at the air-water interface in continental shelf seas [ABSTRACT]

Could the acid–base status of Antarctic sea urchins indicate a better-than-expected resilience to near-future ocean acidification? [ABSTRACT]

Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Relative contributions of ocean mass and deep steric changes to sea level rise between 1993 and 2013 [ABSTRACT]

Preliminary analysis of acceleration of sea level rise through the twentieth century using extended tide gauge data sets (August 2014) [ABSTRACT]

A unique asymmetry in the pattern of recent sea level change [ABSTRACT]

Sea–level rise in the Mediterranean Sea to 2050: Roles of terrestrial ice melt, steric effects and glacial isostatic adjustment [ABSTRACT]

Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning [ABSTRACT]

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area [ABSTRACT]

Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow [ABSTRACT]

Variability and extreme of Mackenzie River daily discharge during 1973–2011 (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cy cle [ABSTRACT]

A consistent picture of the hydroclimatic response to global warming from multiple indices: Models and observations [ABSTRACT]

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review [ABSTRACT]

Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security [ABSTRACT]

Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios [ABSTRACT]

One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict (open access) [ABSTRACT]


Impact of Weddell Sea deep convection on natural and anthropogenic carbon in a climate model [ABSTRACT]

Tropical wetlands: A missing link in the global carbon cycle? [ABSTRACT]

Climatic variability, hydrologic anomaly, and methane emission can turn productive freshwater marshes into net carbon sources [ABSTRACT]

Upscaling carbon dioxide emissions from lakes [ABSTRACT]

Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle [ABSTRACT]

A Top-Down Regional Assessment of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Europe [ABSTRACT]

Allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the German federal system: Regional interests and federal climate governance [ABSTRACT]

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Review of hidden carbon emissions, trade, and labor income share in China, 2001–2011 [ABSTRACT]

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from human waste in 1970–2050 [ABSTRACT]

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions (open access) [ABSTRACT]

From intention to action: Can nudges help consumers to choose renewable energy? [ABSTRACT]

Potential cooperation in renewable energy between China and the United States of America (open access) [ABSTRACT]

A wedge-based approach to estimating health co-benefits of climate change mitigation activities in the United States [ABSTRACT]

IPCC AR5 Overlooked the Potential of Unleashing Agricultural Biotechnology to Combat Climate Change and Poverty [ABSTRACT]

A general framework for the assessment of solar fuels technologies [ABSTRACT]

Mitigation of ammonia, nitrous oxide and methane emissions from manure management chains: a meta-analysis and integrated assessment [ABSTRACT]

Consumer cost effectiveness of CO2 mitigation policies in restructured electricity markets (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Carbon footprint of milk production in Brazil: a comparative case study [ABSTRACT]

A critical examination of the climate engineering moral hazard and risk compensation concern (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Public engagement with marine climate change issues: (Re)framings, understandings and responses [ABSTRACT]

Conceiving the rationale for international climate law [ABSTRACT]

Challenging dominant discourses of climate change [ABSTRACT]

How climate change research undermines trust in everyday life: a review [ABSTRACT]

The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Maladaptation to drought: a case report from California, USA [ABSTRACT]

Evacuation as a climate adaptation strategy for environmental justice communities [ABSTRACT]

The status of climate change adaptation in Africa and Asia (open access) [ABSTRACT]


Impact of orbitals and greenhouse gas on the climate of MIS 7 and MIS 5 glacial inceptions [ABSTRACT]

Eight-hundred years of summer temperature variations in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula reconstructed from tree rings [ABSTRACT]

Radiative forcings for 28 potential Archean greenhouse gases (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Chemostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic signatures of the Anthropocene in estuarine areas from the eastern Cantabrian coast (N. Spain) [ABSTRACT]

The ‘Little Ice Age’ in the Southern Hemisphere in the context of the last 3000?years: Peat-based proxy-climate data from Tierra del Fuego [ABSTRACT]

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty [ABSTRACT]

Climate change and fiscal balance in China over the past two millennia [ABSTRACT]

ENSO Reconstructions over the past 60?ka using giant clams (Tridacna sp.) from Papua New Guinea [ABSTRACT]

Documentary and tree-ring evidence for a long-term interval without ice impoundments from Glaciar Perito Moreno, Patagonia, Argentina [ABSTRACT]

Temperature reconstructions from tree-ring densities overestimate volcanic cooling [ABSTRACT]

Relationships between temperature change and grain harvest fluctuations in China from 210 BC to 1910 AD [ABSTRACT]

Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions [ABSTRACT]

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) forcing of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the mid-latitude North Atlantic between 500 and 400?ka (MIS 12) [ABSTRACT]

Unprecedented recent warming rate and temperature variability over the east Tibetan Plateau inferred from Alpine treeline dendrochronology [ABSTRACT]

Absence of late-summer warming trend over the past two and half centuries on the eastern Tibetan Plateau [ABSTRACT]

Fire in ice: two millennia of boreal forest fire history from the Greenland NEEM ice core (open access) [ABSTRACT]


Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections (open access) [ABSTRACT]

Development, global change and traditional food security in Pacific Island countries [ABSTRACT]

Posted in Climate science | 1 Comment »

Papers on stratospheric ozone measurements

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 28, 2014

This is a list of papers on stratospheric ozone measurements. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in future in order to make it more thorough and more representative.

Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations – Bourassa et al. (2014)
Abstract: “Stratospheric ozone profile measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment~(SAGE) II satellite instrument (1984–2005) are combined with those from the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS) instrument on the Odin satellite (2001–Present) to quantify interannual variability and decadal trends in stratospheric ozone between 60° S and 60° N. These data are merged into a multi-instrument, long-term stratospheric ozone record (1984–present) by analyzing the measurements during the overlap period of 2002–2005 when both satellite instruments were operational. The variability in the deseasonalized time series is fit using multiple linear regression with predictor basis functions including the quasi-biennial oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation index, solar activity proxy, and the pressure at the tropical tropopause, in addition to two linear trends (one before and one after 1997), from which the decadal trends in ozone are derived. From 1984 to 1997, there are statistically significant negative trends of 5–10% per decade throughout the stratosphere between approximately 30 and 50 km. From 1997 to present, a statistically significant recovery of 3–8% per decade has taken place throughout most of the stratosphere with the notable exception between 40° S and 40° N below approximately 22 km where the negative trend continues. The recovery is not significant between 25 and 35 km altitudes when accounting for a conservative estimate of instrument drift.”
Bourassa, A. E., Degenstein, D. A., Randel, W. J., Zawodny, J. M., Kyrölä, E., McLinden, C. A., Sioris, C. E., and Roth, C. Z.: Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6983-6994, doi:10.5194/acp-14-6983-2014, 2014. [FULL TEXT]

Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED – Huang et al. (2014)
Abstract: “We have derived ozone and temperature trends from years 2002 through 2012, from 20 to 100 km altitude, and 48° S to 48° N latitude, based on measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. For the first time, trends of ozone and temperature measured at the same times and locations are obtained, and their correlations should provide useful information about the relative importance of photochemistry versus dynamics over the longer term. We are not aware of comparable results covering this time period and spatial extent. For stratospheric ozone, until the late 1990s, previous studies found negative trends (decreasing amounts). In recent years, some empirical and modeling studies have shown the occurrence of a turnaround in the decreasing ozone, possibly beginning in the late 1990s, suggesting that the stratospheric ozone trend is leveling off or even turning positive. Our global results add more definitive evidence, expand the coverage, and show that at mid-latitudes (north and south) in the stratosphere, the ozone trends are indeed positive, with ozone having increased by a few percent from 2002 through 2012. However, in the tropics, we find negative ozone trends between 25 and 50 km. For stratospheric temperatures, the trends are mostly negatively correlated to the ozone trends. The temperature trends are positive in the tropics between 30 and 40 km, and between 20 and 25 km, at approximately 24° N and at 24° S latitude. The stratospheric temperature trends are otherwise mostly negative. In the mesosphere, the ozone trends are mostly flat, with suggestions of small positive trends at lower latitudes. The temperature trends in this region are mostly negative, showing decreases of up to ~ −3 K decade−1. In the lower thermosphere (between ~ 85 and 100 km), ozone and temperature trends are both negative. The ozone trend can approach ~ −10% decade−1, and the temperature trend can approach ~ −3 K decade−1. Aside from trends, these patterns of ozone–temperature correlations are consistent with previous studies of ozone and temperature perturbations such as the quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual (SAO) oscillations, and add confidence to the results.”
Huang, F. T., Mayr, H. G., Russell III, J. M., and Mlynczak, M. G.: Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED, Ann. Geophys., 32, 935-949, doi:10.5194/angeo-32-935-2014, 2014. [FULL TEXT]

Stratospheric ozone trends and variability as seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012 – Gebhardt et al. (2014)
Abstract: “Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15–50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY1/ENVISAT2 measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002–April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20° N–20° S (tropics), 60–50° N, and 50–60° S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS3 show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS4/Odin and SHADOZ5 are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.”
Gebhardt, C., Rozanov, A., Hommel, R., Weber, M., Bovensmann, H., Burrows, J. P., Degenstein, D., Froidevaux, L., and Thompson, A. M.: Stratospheric ozone trends and variability as seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 831-846, doi:10.5194/acp-14-831-2014, 2014. [FULL TEXT]

Drift-corrected trends and periodic variations in MIPAS IMK/IAA ozone measurements – Eckert et al. (2014)
Abstract: “Drifts, trends and periodic variations were calculated from monthly zonally averaged ozone profiles. The ozone profiles were derived from level-1b data of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) by means of the scientific level-2 processor run by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK). All trend and drift analyses were performed using a multilinear parametric trend model which includes a linear term, several harmonics with period lengths from 3 to 24 months and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Drifts at 2-sigma significance level were mainly negative for ozone relative to Aura MLS and Odin OSIRIS and negative or near zero for most of the comparisons to lidar measurements. Lidar stations used here include those at Hohenpeissenberg (47.8° N, 11.0° E), Lauder (45.0° S, 169.7° E), Mauna Loa (19.5° N, 155.6° W), Observatoire Haute Provence (43.9° N, 5.7° E) and Table Mountain (34.4° N, 117.7° W). Drifts against the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) were found to be mostly insignificant. The assessed MIPAS ozone trends cover the time period of July 2002 to April 2012 and range from −0.56 ppmv decade−1 to +0.48 ppmv decade−1 (−0.52 ppmv decade−1 to +0.47 ppmv decade−1 when displayed on pressure coordinates) depending on altitude/pressure and latitude. From the empirical drift analyses we conclude that the real ozone trends might be slightly more positive/less negative than those calculated from the MIPAS data, by conceding the possibility of MIPAS having a very small (approximately within −0.3 ppmv decade−1) negative drift for ozone. This leads to drift-corrected trends of −0.41 ppmv decade−1 to +0.55 ppmv decade−1 (−0.38 ppmv decade−1 to +0.53 ppmv decade−1 when displayed on pressure coordinates) for the time period covered by MIPAS Envisat measurements, with very few negative and large areas of positive trends at mid-latitudes for both hemispheres around and above 30 km (~10 hPa). Negative trends are found in the tropics around 25 and 35 km (~25 and 5 hPa), while an area of positive trends is located right above the tropical tropopause. These findings are in good agreement with the recent literature. Differences of the trends compared with the recent literature could be explained by a possible shift of the subtropical mixing barriers. Results for the altitude–latitude distribution of amplitudes of the quasi-biennial, annual and the semi-annual oscillation are overall in very good agreement with recent findings.”
Eckert, E., von Clarmann, T., Kiefer, M., Stiller, G. P., Lossow, S., Glatthor, N., Degenstein, D. A., Froidevaux, L., Godin-Beekmann, S., Leblanc, T., McDermid, S., Pastel, M., Steinbrecht, W., Swart, D. P. J., Walker, K. A., and Bernath, P. F.: Drift-corrected trends and periodic variations in MIPAS IMK/IAA ozone measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 2571-2589, doi:10.5194/acp-14-2571-2014, 2014. [FULL TEXT]

Decadal-scale responses in middle and upper stratospheric ozone from SAGE II version 7 data – Remsberg (2014)
Abstract: “Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) version 7 (v7) ozone profiles are analyzed for their decadal-scale responses in the middle and upper stratosphere for 1991 and 1992–2005 and compared with those from its previous version 6.2 (v6.2). Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis is applied to time series of its ozone number density vs. altitude data for a range of latitudes and altitudes. The MLR models that are fit to the time series data include a periodic 11 yr term, and it is in-phase with that of the 11 yr, solar UV (Ultraviolet)-flux throughout most of the latitude/altitude domain of the middle and upper stratosphere. Several regions that have a response that is not quite in-phase are interpreted as being affected by decadal-scale, dynamical forcings. The maximum minus minimum, solar cycle (SC-like) responses for the ozone at the low latitudes are similar from the two SAGE II data versions and vary from about 5 to 2.5% from 35 to 50 km, although they are resolved better with v7. SAGE II v7 ozone is also analyzed for 1984–1998, in order to mitigate effects of end-point anomalies that bias its ozone in 1991 and the analyzed results for 1991–2005 or following the Pinatubo eruption. Its SC-like ozone response in the upper stratosphere is of the order of 4% for 1984–1998 vs. 2.5 to 3% for 1991–2005. The SAGE II v7 results are also recompared with the responses in ozone from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) that are in terms of mixing ratio vs. pressure for 1991–2005 and then for late 1992–2005 to avoid any effects following Pinatubo. Shapes of their respective response profiles agree very well for 1992–2005. The associated linear trends of the ozone are not as negative in 1992–2005 as in 1984–1998, in accord with a leveling off of the effects of reactive chlorine on ozone. It is concluded that the SAGE II v7 ozone yields SC-like ozone responses and trends that are of better quality than those from v6.2.”
Remsberg, E. E.: Decadal-scale responses in middle and upper stratospheric ozone from SAGE II version 7 data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1039-1053, doi:10.5194/acp-14-1039-2014, 2014. [FULL TEXT]

Combined SAGE II–GOMOS ozone profile data set for 1984–2011 and trend analysis of the vertical distribution of ozone – Kyrölä et al. (2013)
Abstract: “We have studied data from two satellite occultation instruments in order to generate a high vertical resolution homogeneous ozone time series of 26 yr. The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II solar occultation instrument and the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instrument measured ozone profiles in the stratosphere and mesosphere from 1984–2005 and 2002–2012, respectively. Global coverage, good vertical resolution, and the self-calibrating measurement method make data from these instruments valuable for the detection of changes in vertical distribution of ozone over time. As both instruments share a common measurement period from 2002–2005, it is possible to inter-calibrate the data sets. We investigate how well these measurements agree with each other and combine all the data to produce a new stratospheric ozone profile data set. Above 55 km, SAGE II measurements show much less ozone than the GOMOS nighttime measurements as a consequence of the well-known diurnal variation of ozone in the mesosphere. Between 35–55 km, SAGE II sunrise and sunset measurements differ from GOMOS’ measurements to different extents. Sunrise measurements show 2% less ozone than GOMOS, whereas sunset measurements show 4% more ozone than GOMOS. Differences can be explained qualitatively by the diurnal variation of ozone in the stratosphere recently observed by SMILES and modeled by chemical transport models. Between 25–35 km, SAGE II sunrise and sunset measurements and GOMOS measurements agree within 1%.
The observed ozone bias between collocated measurements of SAGE II sunrise/sunset and GOMOS night measurements is used to align the two data sets. The combined data set covers the time period 1984–2011, latitudes 60° S–60° N, and the altitude range of 20–60 km. Profile data are given on a 1 km vertical grid, and with a resolution of 1 month in time and 10° in latitude. The combined ozone data set is analyzed by fitting a time series model to the data. We assume a linear trend with an inflection point (so-called “hockey stick” form). The best estimate for the point of inflection was found to be the year 1997 for ozone between altitudes 35 and 45 km. At all latitudes and altitudes from 35 to 50 km we find a clear change in ozone trend before and after the inflection time. From 38 to 45 km, a negative trend of 4% per decade (statistically significant at 95% level) at the equator has changed to a small positive trend of 0–2% per decade. At mid-latitudes, the negative trend of 4–8% per decade has changed to to a small positive trend of 0–2% per decade. At mid-latitudes near 20 km, the ozone loss has still increased whereas in the tropics a recovery is ongoing.”
Kyrölä, E., Laine, M., Sofieva, V., Tamminen, J., Päivärinta, S.-M., Tukiainen, S., Zawodny, J., and Thomason, L.: Combined SAGE II–GOMOS ozone profile data set for 1984–2011 and trend analysis of the vertical distribution of ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10645-10658, doi:10.5194/acp-13-10645-2013, 2013. [FULL TEXT]

Measurements of stratospheric ozone at a mid-latitude observing station Valentia, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.25° W), using ground-based and ozonesonde observations from 1994 to 2009 – Tripathi et al. (2013)
Abstract: “Sixteen years (1994 – 2009) of ozone profiling by ozonesondes at Valentia Meteorological and Geophysical Observatory, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.23° W) along with a co-located MkIV Brewer spectrophotometer for the period 1993–2009 are analyzed. Simple and multiple linear regression methods are used to infer the recent trend, if any, in stratospheric column ozone over the station. The decadal trend from 1994 to 2010 is also calculated from the monthly mean data of Brewer and column ozone data derived from satellite observations. Both of these show a 1.5 % increase per decade during this period with an uncertainty of about ±0.25 %. Monthly mean data for March show a much stronger trend of ~ 4.8 % increase per decade for both ozonesonde and Brewer data. The ozone profile is divided between three vertical slots of 0–15 km, 15–26 km, and 26 km to the top of the atmosphere and a 11-year running average is calculated. Ozone values for the month of March only are observed to increase at each level with a maximum change of +9.2 ± 3.2 % per decade (between years 1994 and 2009) being observed in the vertical region from 15 to 26 km. In the tropospheric region from 0 to 15 km, the trend is positive but with a poor statistical significance. However, for the top level of above 26 km the trend is significantly positive at about 4 % per decade. The March integrated ozonesonde column ozone during this period is found to increase at a rate of ~6.6 % per decade compared with the Brewer and satellite positive trends of ~5 % per decade.”
Om P. Tripathi, S. G. Jennings, C. D. O’Dowd, K. P. Lambkin, E. Moran, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry, December 2013, Volume 70, Issue 4, pp 297-316, DOI: 10.1007/s10874-013-9274-5.

Development of a climate record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from satellite remote sensing: evidence of an early recovery of global stratospheric ozone – Ziemke & Chandra (2012)
Abstract: “Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud Slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and for studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-yr (1979–2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI. Analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual variability of stratospheric ozone and is clearest in the Southern Hemisphere during the Aura time record with related inter-annual changes of 30–40 Dobson Units. Tropospheric ozone for the long record also indicates a QBO signal in the tropics with peak-to-peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. The most important result from our study is that global stratospheric ozone indicates signature of a recovery occurring with ozone abundance now approaching the levels of year 1980 and earlier. The negative trends in stratospheric ozone in both hemispheres during the first 15 yr of the record are now positive over the last 15 yr and with nearly equal magnitudes. This turnaround in stratospheric ozone loss is occurring about 20 yr earlier than predicted by many chemistry climate models. This suggests that the Montreal Protocol which was first signed in 1987 as an international agreement to reduce ozone destroying substances is working well and perhaps better than anticipated.”
Ziemke, J. R. and Chandra, S.: Development of a climate record of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone from satellite remote sensing: evidence of an early recovery of global stratospheric ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 5737-5753, doi:10.5194/acp-12-5737-2012, 2012. [FULL TEXT]

Interannual variability and trends in tropical ozone derived from SAGE II satellite data and SHADOZ ozonesondes – Randel & Thompson (2011)
Abstract: “Long-term observations of stratospheric ozone from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) satellite (1984–2005) are combined with ozonesonde measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network (1998–2009) to study interannual variability and trends in tropical ozone. Excellent agreement is found comparing the two data sets for the overlap period 1998–2005, and the data are combined to form a continuous time series covering 1984–2009. SHADOZ measurements also provide temperature profiles, and interannual changes in ozone and temperature are highly correlated throughout the tropical lower stratosphere (16–27 km). Interannual variability in stratospheric ozone is dominated by effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and there are also significant negative trends (−2 to −4% per decade) in the tropical lower stratosphere (over 17–21 km). These tropical ozone trends are consistent with results from chemistry-climate model simulations, wherein the trends result from increases in upwelling circulation in the tropical lower stratosphere.”
Randel, W. J., and A. M. Thompson (2011), Interannual variability and trends in tropical ozone derived from SAGE II satellite data and SHADOZ ozonesondes, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D07303, doi:10.1029/2010JD015195. [FULL TEXT]

Ozone and temperature trends in the upper stratosphere at five stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change – Steinbrecht et al. (2009)
Abstract: “Upper stratospheric ozone anomalies from the satellite-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II), Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS), and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) instruments agree within 5% or better with ground-based data from lidars and microwave radiometers at five stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), from 45°S to 48°N. From 1979 until the late 1990s, all available data show a clear decline of ozone near 40 km, by 10%–15%. This decline has not continued in the last 10 years. At some sites, ozone at 40 km appears to have increased since 2000, consistent with the beginning decline of stratospheric chlorine. The phaseout of chlorofluorocarbons after the International Montreal Protocol in 1987 has been successful, and is now showing positive effects on ozone in the upper stratosphere. Temperature anomalies near 40 km altitude from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA-40), from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses, and from HALOE and lidar measurements show good consistency at the five stations, within about 3 K. Since about 1985, upper stratospheric temperatures have been fluctuating around a constant level at all five NDACC stations. This non-decline of upper stratospheric temperatures is a significant change from the more or less linear cooling of the upper stratosphere up until the mid-1990s, reported in previous trend assessments. It is also at odds with the almost linear 1 K per decade cooling simulated over the entire 1979–2010 period by chemistry–climate models (CCMs). The same CCM simulations, however, track the historical ozone anomalies quite well, including the change of ozone tendency in the late 1990s.”
W. Steinbrecht, H. Claude, F. Schönenborn, I. S. McDermid, T. Leblanc, S. Godin-Beekmann, P. Keckhut, A. Hauchecorne, J. A. E. Van Gijsel, D. P. J. Swart, G. E. Bodeker, A. Parrish, I. S. Boyd, N. Kämpfer, K. Hocke, R. S. Stolarski, S. M. Frith, L. W. Thomason, E. E. Remsberg, C. Von Savigny, A. Rozanov & J. P. Burrows, International Journal of Remote Sensing, Volume 30, Issue 15-16, 2009, DOI:10.1080/01431160902821841.

A stratospheric ozone profile data set for 1979–2005: Variability, trends, and comparisons with column ozone data – Randel & Wu (2007)
Abstract: “A global stratospheric ozone data set for 1979–2005 is described. Interannual variations are derived from analysis of Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I and II) profile measurements, combined with polar ozonesonde data from Syowa (69°S) and Resolute (75°N). These interannual changes are combined with a seasonally varying ozone climatology from Fortuin and Kelder [1998] to provide a monthly global data set. These data are intended for use in global modeling studies and for analysis of global variability and trends. In order to generate continuous fields from the gappy SAGE data, we use a regression fit that includes decadal trends, solar cycle, and QBO terms, and the spatial structure of these variations is studied in detail. Decadal trends are modeled using an equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine proxy. Ozone variability from the vertically integrated SAGE/sonde data set is compared with results derived from a merged Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/solar backscatter ultraviolet column ozone data set, showing good overall agreement (in particular for trends in extratropics). We also compare the SAGE data with ozonesonde measurements over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and find excellent agreement for lower stratospheric variability and trends. In the tropics, the SAGE ozone data show relatively large percentage decreases in the lower stratosphere. However, the vertically integrated SAGE data do not agree with column ozone trends in the tropics, so there is less confidence in the SAGE results in this region.”
William J. Randel and Fei Wu, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), Volume 112, Issue D6, 27 March 2007, DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007339. [FULL TEXT]

Long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone at selected stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) – Steinbrecht et al. (2006)
Abstract: “The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45°S), reaching −8%/decade, compared to only about −6%/decade at Table Mountain (35°N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux (≈45°N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern(≈47°N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20°N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.”
W. Steinbrecht, H. Claude, F. Schönenborn, I. S. McDermid, T. Leblanc, S. Godin, T. Song, D. P. J. Swart, Y. J. Meijer, G. E. Bodeker, B. J. Connor, N. Kämpfer, K. Hocke, Y. Calisesi, N. Schneider, J. de la Noë, A. D. Parrish, I. S. Boyd, C. Brühl, B. Steil, M. A. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, L. W. Thomason, J. M. Zawodny, M. P. McCormick, J. M. Russell III, P. K. Bhartia, R. S. Stolarski and S. M. Hollandsworth-Frith, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), Volume 111, Issue D10, 27 May 2006, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006454. [FULL TEXT]

Enhanced upper stratospheric ozone: Sign of recovery or solar cycle effect? – Steinbrecht et al. (2004)
Abstract: “Ozone data measured since 1987 in the 35- to 45-km altitude region by differential absorption laser-radar (DIAL) at Hohenpeissenberg (47.8°N, 11.0°E) confirm the long-term ozone decline observed by the satellite-borne Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instruments, as well as interannual ozone fluctuations. Analysis of the DIAL data indicates that the amplitude of ozone variations related to the 11-year solar cycle might reach up to 7%, much larger than 4% reported in other studies. Higher ozone values observed in the years 2001 to 2003 might, therefore, be a consequence of the ending solar maximum and not necessarily indicate a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. Much clearer evidence for a recovery is expected in a few years, near the end of the solar minimum starting now.”
W. Steinbrecht, H. Claude and P. Winkler, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), Volume 109, Issue D2, 27 January 2004, DOI: 10.1029/2003JD004284. [FULL TEXT]

Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery – Newchurch et al. (2003)
Abstract: “Global ozone trends derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I and II (SAGE I/II) combined with the more recent Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations provide evidence of a slowdown in stratospheric ozone losses since 1997. This evidence is quantified by the cumulative sum of residual differences from the predicted linear trend. The cumulative residuals indicate that the rate of ozone loss at 35–45 km altitudes globally has diminished. These changes in loss rates are consistent with the slowdown of total stratospheric chlorine increases characterized by HALOE HCl measurements. These changes in the ozone loss rates in the upper stratosphere are significant and constitute the first stage of a recovery of the ozone layer.”
Newchurch, M. J., E.-S. Yang, D. M. Cunnold, G. C. Reinsel, J. M. Zawodny, and J. M. Russell III (2003), Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4507, doi:10.1029/2003JD003471, D16. [FULL TEXT]

Trend analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone data for evidence of turnaround – Reinsel (2002)
Abstract: “Recent upper stratospheric (~35–45 km) Umkehr ozone data from three high-quality stations have been examined, with residual and change-in-trend analyses performed. These data show a consistent feature of mildly positive tendency in values for the recent several years. Trend analyses of these data yield significant positive change-in-trend estimates of about 0.75% per year since 1996 relative to negative trends of about -0.55% per year existing prior to 1996, leading to a (nonsignificant) estimate of about 0.2% per year positive trend for the recent 5-year period since the 1996 change-in-trend date.”
Reinsel, G. C., Trend analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone data for evidence of turnaround, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), doi:10.1029/2002GL014716, 2002. [FULL TEXT]

Upper-stratospheric ozone trends 1979–1998 – Newchurch et al. (2000)
Abstract: “Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30–45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8±0.2 % yr-1 (2s) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.1±0.1% yr-1 (2s) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (±30% in the Northern Hemisphere, ±40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2% yr-1 occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9% yr-1 occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1% yr-1 in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2% yr-1 in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].”
Newchurch, M. J., et al. (2000), Upper-stratospheric ozone trends 1979–1998, J. Geophys. Res., 105(D11), 14625–14636, doi:10.1029/2000JD900037. [FULL TEXT]

Northern middle-latitude ozone profile features and trends observed by SBUV and Umkehr, 1979–1990 – DeLuisi et al. (1994)
Abstract: “A comparison of Umkehr ozone profile data with the reprocessed solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profile data in the northern middle-latitude region, 30° to 50°N, is reported. Although significant biases exist between the two types of observations, the long-term variations and least squares linear regression trends agree remarkably well over the comparison period of 1979 to 1990. The ozone trend in the upper stratosphere is of the order of -0.9% yr-1. Near 25 km, little if any trend appears, but a larger negative trend is seen in the lower stratosphere near 15 km. Comparisons show that the average annual ozone cycles in the profiles also agree well. The upper stratospheric ozone results are consistent with photochemical model predictions of ozone depletion near 40 km that are due to the release of anthropogenically produced chlorofluorocarbons. The lower stratospheric ozone trend results are in reasonable agreement with published ozonesonde data trends. It is shown that the ozone trends in the lower stratospheric layers impact significantly on the total ozone trend of the order of -0.47% yr-1. The good agreement now seen between the two types of observations suggests that the combined ground-based and satellite approach could provide a valuable database for long-term monitoring of stratospheric ozone for trends and extraordinary variations.”
DeLuisi, J. J., C. L. Mateer, D. Theisen, P. K. Bhartia, D. Longenecker, and B. Chu (1994), Northern middle-latitude ozone profile features and trends observed by SBUV and Umkehr, 1979–1990, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D9), 18901–18908, doi:10.1029/94JD01518. [FULL TEXT]

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends – McPeters et al. (1994)
Abstract: “Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within ±5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of ±10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within ±2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than ±5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of ±4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8°K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30–40 km), SBUV shows a 2–4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.”
McPeters, R. D., T. Miles, L. E. Flynn, C. G. Wellemeyer, and J. M. Zawodny (1994), Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends, J. Geophys. Res., 99(D10), 20513–20524, doi:10.1029/94JD02008.

Comparison of trend analyses for Umkehr data using new and previous inversion algorithms – Reinsel et al. (1994)
Abstract: “Ozone vertical profile Umkehr data for layers 3–9 obtained from 12 stations, using both previous and new inversion algorithms, were analyzed for trends. The trends estimated for the Umkehr data from the two algorithms were compared using two data periods, 1968–1991 and 1977–1991. Both nonseasonal and seasonal trend models were fitted. The overall annual trends are found to be significantly negative, of the order of -5% per decade, for layers 7 and 8 using both inversion algorithms. The largest negative trends occur in these layers under the new algorithm, whereas in the previous algorithm the most negative trend occurs in layer 9. The trend estimates, both annual and seasonal, are substantially different between the two algorithms mainly for layers 3, 4, and 9, where trends from the new algorithm data are about 2% per decade less negative, with less appreciable differences in layers 7 and 8. The trend results from the two data periods are similar, except for layer 3 where trends become more negative, by about -2% per decade, for 1977–1991.”
Gregory C. Reinsel, Wing-Kuen Tam and Lisa H. Ying, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 21, Issue 11, pages 1007–1010, 1 June 1994, DOI: 10.1029/94GL00980.

Measured Trends in Stratospheric Ozone – Stolarski et al. (1992)
Abstract: “Recent findings, based on both ground-based and satellite measurements, have established that there has been an apparent downward trend in the total column amount of ozone over mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. Measurements of the altitude profile of the change in the ozone concentration have established that decreases are taking place in the lower stratosphere in the region of highest ozone concentration. Analysis of updated ozone records, through March of 1991, including 29 stations in the former Soviet Union, and analysis of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment instruments confirm many of the findings originally derived from the Dobson record concerning northern midlatitude changes in ozone. The data from many instruments now provide a fairly consistent picture of the change that has occurred in stratospheric ozone levels.”
Richard Stolarski, Rumen Bojkov, Lane Bishop, Christos Zerefos, Johannes Staehelin, Joseph Zawodny, Science 17 April 1992: Vol. 256 no. 5055 pp. 342-349, DOI: 10.1126/science.256.5055.342. [FULL TEXT]

An analysis of northern middle-latitude Umkehr measurements corrected for stratospheric aerosols for 1979–1986 – DeLuisi et al. (1989)
Abstract: “Umkehr observations of ozone profile for five northern middle-latitude Dobson spectrophotometer stations are objectively corrected for stratospheric aerosol during the period 1979–1986. The corrections are done by means of theoretical calculations, using observations of stratospheric ozone and aerosols. Stratospheric ozone and aerosol profile data to correct the Umkehr measurements are derived from ozonesonde observations and observations provided by five lidar stations in the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Optical properties of the stratospheric aerosol existing during and after the major injection by El Chichón are derived from surface and aircraft photometric observations and in situ aircraft observations of aerosol size distribution. The corrected Umkehr data display some noteworthy ozone reductions in the upper stratosphere. The magnitude of these reductions does not seem to be extraordinary when considering features seen in long-term Umkehr data. However, the rates may be extraordinary, for example, in layers 8 and 9, in which decreases in ozone concentration during 1979–1986 were 9% and 15% respectively, using corrected data.”
DeLuisi, J. J., D. U. Longenecker, C. L. Mateer, and D. J. Wuebbles (1989), An analysis of northern middle-latitude Umkehr measurements corrected for stratospheric aerosols for 1979–1986, J. Geophys. Res., 94(D7), 9837–9846, doi:10.1029/JD094iD07p09837.

Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship – Reinsel et al. (1987)
Abstract: “We report on trend analysis of Dobson total ozone data through 1984 and stratospheric Umkehr profile ozone data through 1981, including an examination of the relationship between ozone and long-term solar cycle activity using the 10.7-cm solar flux data. The estimate of the overall global trend in total ozone during the period 1970–1984, with associated 95% confidence (two standard error) limits, is (-0.26±0.92)% per decade, which indicates no significant overall trend. Based on use of the 10.7-cm flux measurements, an overall estimate of the total ozone-solar flux relationship is (1.18±0.66)% change in total ozone from solar cycle minimum to maximum, which indicates a statistically significant positive relationship. Trend analysis of Umkehr data through 1981 yields statistically significant negative trends on the order of (-0.30±0.17)% per year in layers 7 and 8 (~34–43 km), with Mauna Loa transmission data being used to account for volcanic aerosol effects on the Umkehr data. The analysis also indicates significant relationships between Umkehr data and solar flux in layers 6 and 7 (~29–38 km) of (2.57±1.25)% and (3.40±2.16)% change, respectively, from solar cycle minimum to maximum, with no significant relationship detected in the higher layers 8 and 9 where the estimates are more variable. Comparison of these empirical estimates with theoretical model calculations is discussed. Trend analysis of Umkehr data using data through 1984 is not reported in this paper because of the severe impact of volcanic aerosols from El Chichon on the Umkehr measurements during 1982–1984, although further research on methods for adjustment of Umkehr data for aerosol effects during this period is continuing.”
Reinsel, G. C., G. C. Tiao, A. J. Miller, D. J. Wuebbles, P. S. Connell, C. L. Mateer, and J. J. Deluisi (1987), Statistical analysis of total ozone and stratospheric Umkehr data for trends and solar cycle relationship, J. Geophys. Res., 92(D2), 2201–2209, doi:10.1029/JD092iD02p02201.

Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction – Farman et al. (1985)
Abstract: “Recent attempts to consolidate assessments of the effect of human activities on stratospheric ozone (O3) using one-dimensional models for 30° N have suggested that perturbations of total O3 will remain small for at least the next decade. Results from such models are often accepted by default as global estimates. The inadequacy of this approach is here made evident by observations that the spring values of total O3 in Antarctica have now fallen considerably. The circulation in the lower stratosphere is apparently unchanged, and possible chemical causes must be considered. We suggest that the very low temperatures which prevail from midwinter until several weeks after the spring equinox make the Antarctic stratosphere uniquely sensitive to growth of inorganic chlorine, Clx, primarily by the effect of this growth on the NO2/NO ratio. This, with the height distribution of UV irradiation peculiar to the polar stratosphere, could account for the O3 losses observed.”
J. C. Farman, B. G. Gardiner & J. D. Shanklin, Nature 315, 207 – 210 (16 May 1985); doi:10.1038/315207a0.

Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols – Reinsel et al. (1984)
Abstract: “A statistical analysis of stratospheric ozone profile data from the Umkehr method is considered for the detection of trends which may be associated with the release of chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs), where possible effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements are also taken into account. In the statistical trend analysis, time series models have been estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr data over the past 15 to 20 years through 1980 at each of 13 Umkehr stations and at each of the five highest Umkehr layers, 5–9, which cover an altitude range of approximately 24–48 km. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend, and noise factors and an additional factor to explicitly account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. At each Umkehr station, the explanatory series used in the statistical model to account for the aerosol effect is a 5 month running average of the monthly atmospheric transmission data at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the only long running aerosol data available. A random effects model is used to combine the 13 individual station trend estimates from the time series models to form an overall estimate of trend for each Umkehr layer. The analysis indicates statistically significant trends in the upper Umkehr layers 7 and 8 of the order of -0.2 to -0.3% per year over the period 1970–1980, with little trend in the lower layers 5 and 6. The results of the estimation of trends as well as aerosol effects for the Umkehr data are compared with recent corresponding theoretical predictions.”
Reinsel, G. C., G. C. Tiao, J. J. DeLuisi, C. L. Mateer, A. J. Miller, and J. E. Frederick (1984), Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols, J. Geophys. Res., 89(D3), 4833–4840, doi:10.1029/JD089iD03p04833.

Comparison of seasonal variations of upper stratospheric ozone concentrations revealed by Umkehr and Nimbus 4 BUV observations – DeLuisi et al. (1979)
Abstract: “This paper reports the results of a comparison between upper stratospheric ozone concentration profiles in the region between 22 and 1.4 mbar, as determined from surface-based Umkehr observations and satellite Nimbus 4 BUV observations. The Umkehr data, consisting of monthly averages of observations extending over several years or longer, were obtained at three stations located in the northern hemisphere and two in the southern hemisphere. The BUV data were obtained during the period from May 1970 to March 1971. Aside from some bias in the magnitudes of the Umkehr and BUV data, marked annual cycles of ozone concentration in the upper stratosphere are clearly revealed. Above 4 mbar the profiles show a summer minimum and a winter maximum, while below 4 mbar the annual variation is reversed from this pattern. In the northern hemisphere the winter maximum is accompanied by a secondary minimum of 1- to 2-month duration near 3 mbar. This short-term minimum is much less obvious in the southern hemisphere data. Some of the problem of attempting to monitor long-term changes in the upper stratosphere are discussed briefly.”
DeLuisi, J. J., C. L. Mateer, and D. F. Heath (1979), Comparison of seasonal variations of upper stratospheric ozone concentrations revealed by Umkehr and Nimbus 4 BUV observations, J. Geophys. Res., 84(C7), 3728–3732, doi:10.1029/JC084iC07p03728.

Preliminary comparison of satellite BUV and surface-based Umkehr observations of the vertical distribution of ozone in the upper stratosphere – DeLuisi & Nimira (1977)
Abstract: “Data from surface-based Umkehr and satellite ultraviolet backscatter observations of the vertical distribution of ozone in the upper stratosphere are compared. The satellite data are limited to four single-pass observations of the vertical-meridional distribution of ozone at different seasons of the year during 1970. The Umkehr data are climatological means over several years of observations. Although most of the observations made with the surface and satellite systems do not coincide in time, they nevertheless show a general agreement in seasonal variations that clearly appear in the more complete set of Umkehr data. Average values of ozone concentrations for satellite and Umkehr observations and a standard ozone profile are intercompared and show some significant differences.”
DeLuisi, J. J., and J. Nimira (1978), Preliminary comparison of satellite BUV and surface-based Umkehr observations of the vertical distribution of ozone in the upper stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 83(C1), 379–384, doi:10.1029/JC083iC01p00379.

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