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Archive for the ‘Global warming effects’ Category

Climate related papers in Boreal Environmental Research

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 27, 2016

All climate related papers in journal Boreal Environmental Research between years 1996 and 2012 are listed below.

Likely responses to climate change of fish associations in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin: concepts, methods and findings (Regier et al. 1996) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber11.htm#1
Climate change and water resources in Finland (Vehviläinen & Huttunen, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#3
Effects of climatic change on hydrological patterns of a forested catchment: a physically based modeling approach (Lepistö & Kivinen, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#19
Impacts of climatic change on agricultural nutrient losses in Finland (Kallio et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#33
Modelling the effects of climate change on lake eutrophication (Frisk et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#53
Temperature habitats for freshwater fishes in a warming climate (Lappalainen & Lehtonen, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#69
Possible effects of climate warming on the timing of spawning, juvenile abundance and catches of pikeperch, Stizostedion lucioperca (L.) (Lappalainen et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#85
The Baltic Sea ice season in changing climate (Haapala & Leppäranta, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#93
Uncertainties of climatic change impacts in Finnish watersheds: a Bayesian network analysis of expert knowledge (Kuikka & Varis, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber21.htm#109
Modelling the effects of climate change, acidic deposition and forest harvesting on the biogeochemistry of a boreal forested catchment in Finland (Forsius et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber22.htm#129
Climate change and river runoff in Scandinavia, approaches and challenges (Gottschalk & Krasovskaia, 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber22.htm#145
Variability of climatic and ice conditions in the Bohai Sea, China (Zhang et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber22.htm#163
Modelling the effect of climate change on nutrient loading, temperature regime and algal biomass in the Gulf of Finland (Inkala et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber23.htm#287
The influence of Kola Peninsula, continental European and marine sources on the number concentrations and scattering coefficients of the atmospheric aerosol in Finnish Lapland (Virkkula et al. 1997) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber24.htm#317
The effects of climate change on the temperature conditions of lakes (Elo et al. 1998) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber32.htm#137
Mean long-term surface energy balance components in Finland during the summertime (Venäläinen et al. 1998) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber32.htm#171
On the influence of peatland draining on local climate (Venäläinen et al. 1999) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber41.htm#89
Predicting variations in methane emissions from boreal peatlands through regression models (Kettunen et al. 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber52.htm#115
Annual variability of nitrogen concentrations and export from forested catchments: A consequence of climatic variability, sampling strategies or human interference? (Andersson & Lepistö, 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber53.htm#221
Biogenic aerosol formation in the boreal forest (Kulmala et al. 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#281
Characteristics of the atmospheric particle formation events observed at a borel forest site in southern Finland (Mäkelä et al. 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#299
Characterization of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations at forest sites in southern and northern Finland using back trajectories (Kulmala et al. 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#315
Aerosol physico-chemical characteristics over a boreal forest determined by volatility analysis (O’Dowd et al. 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#337
Using a cloud condensation nuclei counter to study CCN properties and concentrations (Aalto & Kulmala, 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#349
Aerosol dynamical model MULTIMONO (Pirjola & Kulmala, 2000) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber54.htm#361
Microbial activity of boreal forest soil in a cold climate (Kähkönen et al. 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber61.htm#019
Parametrization of a biochemical CO2 exchange model for birch (Betula pendula Roth.) (Aalto & Juurola, 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber61.htm#053
Eddy covariance fluxes over a boreal Scots pine forest (Markkanen et al. 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber61.htm#065
Trends in sea level variability in the Baltic Sea (Johansson et al. 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber63.htm#159
Environmental conditions and the development of Planktonema lauterbornii Schmidle in phytoplankton of Karhijärvi, a lake in SW Finland (Nõges & Viirret, 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber63.htm#181
Evapotranspiration 1961–1990 in Finland as function of meteorological and land-type factors (Solantie & Joukola, 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber64.htm#261
Growth indices of North European Scots pine record the seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (Lindholm et al. 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber64.htm#275
Modeling wind-driven circulation in Lake Ladoga (Beletsky, 2001) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber64.htm#307
Geochemical expressions of late- and post-glacial land–sea interactions in the southern Baltic Sea (Müller, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber71.htm#13
Has the project BALTEX so far met its original objectives? (Raschke et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#175
The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO (Döscher et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#183
The BALTEX regional reanalysis project (Fortelius et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#193
A numerical study using the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the PIDCAP period (Lorant et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#203
Validation of HIRLAM boundary-layer structures over the Baltic Sea (Pirazzini et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#211
Cluster analysis results of regional climate model simulations in the PIDCAP period (Kücken et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#219
Large-Eddy-Simulation of an off-ice airflow during BASIS (Etling et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#225
Marine boundary-layer height estimated from the HIRLAM model (Gryning & Batchvarova, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#229
Cloud observations and modeling within the European BALTEX Cloud Liquid Water Network (Crewell et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#235
The satellite derived surface radiation budget for BALTEX (Hollmann & Gratzki, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#247
BALTEX weather radar-based precipitation products and their accuracies (Koistinen & Michelson, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#253
Retrieval of the spatial distribution of liquid water path from combined ground-based and satellite observations for atmospheric model evaluation (Feijt et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#265
Frequency of circulation patterns and air temperature variations in Europe (Sepp & Jaagus, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#273
Circulation weather types and their influence on temperature and precipitation in Estonia (Post et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#281
Atmospheric precipitable water in Estonia, 1990–2001 (Okulov et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#291
Selection of representative stations by means of a cluster analysis for the BAMAR region in the PIDCAP period (Oesterle, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber73.htm#301
BALTEX water and energy budgets in the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II (Roads et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#307
Circulation of the Baltic Sea and its connection to the Pan-Arctic region — a large scale and high-resolution modeling approach (Maslowski & Walczowski, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#319
Simulated water and heat cycles of the Baltic Sea using a 3D coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model (Meier & Döscher, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#327
The fragile climatological niche of the Baltic Sea (Stipa & Vepsäläinen, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#335
Surface radiant and energy flux densities inferred from satellite data for the BALTEX watershed (Berger, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#343
Rain observations with a vertically looking Micro Rain Radar (MRR) (Peters et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#353
The BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System) field experiments: A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer data set for model validation over the open and ice-covered Baltic Sea (Brümmer et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#371
Area averaging of land surface–atmosphere fluxes in NOPEX: challenges, results and perspectives (Gryning et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#379
Inter-annual variability of Baltic Sea water balance components and sea level (Malinin et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#399
Water, heat and salt exchange between the deep basins of the Baltic Sea (Lehmann & Hinrichsen, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#405
Energy and water balance of the Baltic Sea derived from merchant ship observations (Lindau, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#417
Precipitation fields over the Baltic Sea derived from ship rain gauge measurements on merchant ships (Clemens & Bumke, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#425
The snow cover characteristics of northern Eurasia and their relationship to climatic parameters (Kitaev et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#437
Long-term changes of the river runoff in Latvia (Klavins et al. 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#447
Snow water equivalent variability and forecast in Lithuania (Rimkus & Stankunavichius, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#457
Relationship between atmospheric circulation indices and climate variability in Estonia (Tomingas, 2002) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber74.htm#463
Small-scale variability of the wind field over a typical Scandinavian lake (Venäläinen et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber81.htm#071
Primary particulate matter emissions and the Finnish climate strategy (Karvosenoja & Johansson, 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber82.htm#125
Droughts and rainfall in south-eastern Finland since AD 874, inferred from Scots pine ring-widths (Helama & Lindholm, 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber82.htm#171
Estimation of different forest-related contributions to the radiative balance using observations in southern Finland (Kurtén et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#275
Long-term measurements of surface fluxes above a Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, southern Finland, 1996–2001 (Suni et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#287
Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station — characterization of aerosol radiative parameters (Jennings et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#303
Field measurements of atmosphere–biosphere interactions in a Danish beech forest (Pilegaard et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#315
Atmospheric trace gas and aerosol particle concentration measurements in Eastern Lapland, Finland 1992–2001 (Ruuskanen et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#335
A decade of trace gas measurements using DOAS in Finnish Lapland (Virkkula et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#351
Overview of the atmospheric research activities and results at Pallas GAW station (Hatakka et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#365
Influence of air mass source sector on variations in CO2 mixing ratio at a boreal site in northern Finland (Aalto et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#385
Comparison of new particle formation events at two locations in northern Finland (Komppula et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#395
On the concept of condensation sink diameter (Lehtinen et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#405
A cloud microphysics model including trace gas condensation and sulfate chemistry (Kokkola et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#413
Ozone flux measurements over a Scots pine forest using eddy covariance method: performance evaluation and comparison with flux-profile method (Keronen et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#425
Measuring shoot-level NOx flux in field conditions: the role of blank chambers (Raivonen et al. 2003) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber84.htm#445
Aerosols in boreal forest: wintertime relations between formation events and bio-geo-chemical activity (Kulmala et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber91.htm#063
Meteorological evaluation of a severe air pollution episode in Helsinki on 27–29 December 1995 (Pohjola et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber91.htm#075
FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century (Carter et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#091
Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland (Kaivo-oja et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#109
Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century (Jylhä et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#127
Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast (Johansson et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#153
Trends and scenarios of ground-level ozone concentrations in Finland (Laurila et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#167
Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century (Syri et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber92.htm#185
Soil CO2 efflux from a podzolic forest soil before and after forest clear-cutting and site preparation (Pumpanen et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber93.htm#199
Hydraulic aspects of environmental flood management in boreal conditions (Helmiö & Järvelä, 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber93.htm#227
Age-dependent climate sensitivity of Pinus sylvestris L. in the central Scandinavian Mountains (Linderholm & Linderholm, 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber94.htm#307
Daytime temperature sum — a new thermal variable describing growing season characteristics and explaining evapotranspiration (Solantie, 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber94.htm#319
Composition and origins of aerosol during a high PM10 episode in Finland (Tervahattu et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber94.htm#335
Patterns of coherent dynamics within and between lake districts at local to intercontinental scales (Magnuson et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#359
Atmospheric circulation and its impact on ice phenology in Scandinavia (Blenckner et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#371
The effect of climate and landuse on TOC concentrations and loads in Finnish rivers (Arvola et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#381
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the winter characteristics of Windermere (UK) and Pääjärvi (Finland) (George et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#389
Reflection of the changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Gulf Stream Position Index in the hydrology and phytoplankton of Võrtsjärv, a large, shallow lake in Estonia (Nõges, 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#401
Effects of an extreme precipitation event on water chemistry and phytoplankton in the Swedish Lake Mälaren (Weyhenmeyer et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#409
Potential springtime greenhouse gas emissions from a small southern boreal lake (Keihäsjärvi, Finland) (Huttunen et al. 2004) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber95.htm#421
Meteorological and climatological factors affecting transport and deposition of nitrogen compounds over the Baltic Sea (Hongisto & Joffre, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber101.htm#1
Climate driven changes in the spawning of roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)) and bream (Abramis brama (L.)) in the Estonian part of the Narva River basin (Nõges & Järvet, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber101.htm#45
On the existence of neutral atmospheric clusters (Kulmala et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber102.htm#79
Wind wave statistics in Tallinn Bay (Soomere, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber102.htm#103
Climatic turning points and regime shifts in the Baltic Sea region: the Baltic winter index (WIBIX) 1659–2002 (Hagen & Feistel, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber103.htm#211
Productivity of boreal forests in relation to climate and vegetation zones (Solantie, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber104.htm#275
Feedback processes between climate, surface and vegetation at the northern climatological tree-line (Finnish Lapland) (Vajda & Venäläinen, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber104.htm#299
Station for Measuring Ecosystem–Atmosphere Relations (SMEAR II) (Hari & Kulmala, 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#315
Formation and growth of fresh atmospheric aerosols: eight years of aerosol size distribution data from SMEAR II, Hyytiälä, Finland (Dal Maso et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#323
Evaluation of an automatic algorithm for fitting the particle number size distributions (Hussein et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#337
Annual and size dependent variation of growth rates and ion concentrations in boreal forest (Hirsikko et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#357
Organic compounds in atmospheric aerosols from a Finnish coniferous forest (Anttila et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#371
Physico-chemical characterization and mass closure of size-segregated atmospheric aerosols in Hyytiälä, Finland (Saarikoski et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#385
Wintertime CO2 evolution from a boreal forest ecosystem (Ilvesniemi et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#401
On-line PTR-MS measurements of atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds in a European boreal forest ecosystem (Rinne et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber105.htm#425
Research Unit of Physics, Chemistry and Biology of Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change: overview of recent results (Kulmala et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#459
Probability of nucleation events and aerosol particle concentration in different air mass types arriving at Hyytiälä, southern Finland, based on back trajectories analysis (Sogacheva et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#479
Seasonal variations of trace gases, meteorological parameters, and formation of aerosols in boreal forests (Lyubovtseva et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#493
Effect of ammonium bisulphate formation on atmospheric water-sulphuric acid-ammonia nucleation (Anttila et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#511
A combined photochemistry/aerosol dynamics model: model development and a study of new particle formation (Grini et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#525
Design and performance characteristics of a condensation particle counter UF-02proto (Mordas et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#543
Eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and sensible and latent heat fluxes during a full year in a boreal pine forest trunk-space (Launiainen et al. 2005) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber106.htm#569
Methane fluxes at the sediment–water interface in some boreal lakes and reservoirs (Huttunen et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber111.htm#027
Sea level variability at the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea (Dailidiene et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber112.htm#109
Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate (Suursaar et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber112.htm#123
Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters (Suursaar et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber112.htm#143
Trends in sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast during the period 1949/1950–2003/2004 and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation (Jaagus, 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber113.htm#169
Post-glacial sedimentation rate and patterns in six lakes of the Kokemäenjoki upper watercourse, Finland (Valpola & Ojala, 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber113.htm#195
Monitoring of black carbon and size-segregated particle number concentrations at 9-m and 65-m distances from a major road in Helsinki (Pakkanen et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber114.htm#295
Spring in the boreal environment: observations on pre- and post-melt energy and CO2 fluxes in two central Siberian ecosystems (Arneth et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber114.htm#311
Regional climate simulations for the Barents Sea region (Keup-Thiel et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber115.htm#329
Determination of forest growth trends in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia): combination of tree-ring analysis and remote sensing data (Lopatin et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber115.htm#341
Life cycle assessment of Finnish cultivated rainbow trout (Grönroos et al. 2006) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber115.htm#401
High soil carbon efflux rates in several ecosystems in southern Sweden (Tagesson & Lindrot, 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber121.htm#65
Methods for determining emission factors for the use of peat and peatlands — flux measurements and modelling (Alm et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#85
Annual CO2 and CH4 fluxes of pristine boreal mires as a background for the lifecycle analyses of peat energy (Saarnio et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#101
Heterotrophic soil respiration in forestry-drained peatlands (Minkkinen at al., 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#115
Tree stand volume as a scalar for methane fluxes in forestry-drained peatlands in Finland (Minkkinen at al., 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#127
Greenhouse gas emissions from cultivated and abandoned organic croplands in Finland (Maljanen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#133
Carbon dioxide exchange above a 30-year-old Scots pine plantation established on organic-soil cropland (Lohila et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#141
Soil greenhouse gas emissions from afforested organic soil croplands and cutaway peatlands (Mäkiranta et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#159
Carbon gas exchange of a re-vegetated cut-away peatland five decades after abandonment (Yli-Petäys et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#177
Emission factors and their uncertainty for the exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O in Finnish managed peatlands (Alm et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#191
Greenhouse impact due to different peat fuel utilisation chains in Finland — a life-cycle approach (Kirkinen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#211
Peat-based emissions in Finland’s national greenhouse gas inventory (Lapveteläinen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber122.htm#225
A wide-range multi-channel Air Ion Spectrometer (Mirme et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#247
The 222Rn activity concentration, external radiation dose and air ion production rates in a boreal forest in Finland between March 2000 and June 2006 (Hirsikko et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#265
Hot-air balloon as a platform for boundary layer profile measurements during particle formation (Laakso et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#279
Road-side measurements of aerosol and ion number size distributions: a comparison with remote site measurements (Tiitta et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#311
Size distributions of atmospheric ions in the Baltic Sea region (Komppula et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#323
Size distributions of atmospheric ions inside clouds and in cloud-free air at a remote continental site (Lihavainen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#337
Nucleation events detected at the high altitude site of the Puy de Dôme Research Station, France (Venzac et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#345
Modal structure of the atmospheric aerosol particle size spectrum for nucleation burst days in Estonia (Pugatsova et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#361
Ion and particle number concentrations and size distributions along the Trans-Siberian railroad (Vartiainen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#375
Charged particle size distributions and analysis of particle formation events at the Finnish Antarctic research station Aboa (Virkkula et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#397
Simulating aerosol nucleation bursts in a coniferous forest (Tammet & Kulmala, 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#421
Quantum chemical studies of hydrate formation of H2SO4 and HSO4– (Kurtén et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber123.htm#431
Validation of the SNOWPACK model in five different snow zones in Finland (Rasmus et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber124.htm#467
Antecedent snow conditions affect water levels and plant biomass of a fen in the southern boreal forest: results from an experiment using mesocosms (Benoy et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber124.htm#501
Holocene vegetation history of the Riisitunturi fell area in NE Finland, traced by the palynostratigraphy of two disgenic upland lakes (Huttunen, 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber124.htm#515
FinROSE — middle atmospheric chemistry transport model (Damski et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber125.htm#535
The energy balance and vertical thermal structure of two small boreal lakes in summer (Elo, 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber125.htm#585
Environmental changes in SE Estonia during the last 700 years (Saarse & Niinemets, 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber125.htm#611
Thermally driven mesoscale flows — simulations and measurements (Törnblom et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber126.htm#623
Meteorological features behind spring runoff formation in the Nemunas River (Stankunavicius et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber126.htm#643
Impact of climate change on Estonian coastal and inland wetlands — a summary with new results (Kont et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber126.htm#653
Nitrogen pools and C:N ratios in well-drained Nordic forest soils related to climate and soil texture (Callesen et al. 2007) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber126.htm#681
Timing of plant phenophases in Finnish Lapland in 1997–2006 (Pudas et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber131.htm#031
Climatological characteristics of summer precipitation in Helsinki during the period 1951–2000 (Kilpeläinen et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber131.htm#067
Aerosol particle formation events at two Siberian stations inside the boreal forest (Dal Maso et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber132.htm#081
Aerosol components and types in the Baltic Sea region (Reinart et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber132.htm#103
The effects of fluctuating climatic conditions and weather events on nutrient dynamics in a narrow mosaic riparian peatland (Kull et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber133.htm#243
The relationship between fire activity and fire weather indices at different stages of the growing season in Finland (Tanskanen & Venäläinen, 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber134.htm#285
Long-term trends in spring phenology in a boreal forest in central Finland (Lappalainen et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber134.htm#303
Development of Finnish peatland area and carbon storage 1950–2000 (Turunen, 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber134.htm#319
Snow accumulation on evergreen needle-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved trees (Suzuki et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber135.htm#403
Boreal forest leaf area index from optical satellite images: model simulations and empirical analyses using data from central Finland (Stenberg et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber135.htm#433
Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon in stand throughfall and percolation water in 12 boreal coniferous stands on mineral soils in Finland (Lindroos et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber13B.htm#022
Response of boreal forest vegetation to the fertility status of the organic layer along a climatic gradient (Salemaa et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber13B.htm#048
Water-extractable organic compounds in different components of the litter layer of boreal coniferous forest soils along a climatic gradient (Hilli et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber13B.htm#092
The costs of monitoring changes in forest soil carbon stocks (Mäkipää et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber13B.htm#120
Momentum fluxes and wind gradients in the marine boundary layer — a multi-platform study (Högström et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber136.htm#475
The response of phytoplankton to increased temperature in the Loviisa archipelago, Gulf of Finland (Ilus & Keskitalo, 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber136.htm#503
Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia) (Lopatin et al. 2008) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber136.htm#539
Sensitivity of Baltic Sea deep water salinity and oxygen concentration to variations in physical forcing (Gustafsson & Omstedt, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#018
Regionalisation of the precipitation pattern in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation (Jaagus, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#031
Diurnal variability of precipitable water in the Baltic region, impact on transmittance of the direct solar radiation (Jakobson et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#045
Water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: Evaluation of simulated fluxes in a regional climate model (Lind & Kjellström, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#056
An enhanced sea-ice thermodynamic model applied to the Baltic Sea (Tedesco et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#068
Is greenhouse gas forcing a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Baltic Sea catchment area? (Bhend & von Storch, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#081
Detecting changes in winter seasons in Latvia: the role of arctic air masses (Draveniece, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#089
Future trends and variability of the hydrological cycle in different IPCC SRES emission scenarios — a case study for the Baltic Sea region (Jacob & Lorenz, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#100
Changes in the water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin in future warmer climates as simulated by the regional climate model RCA3 (Kjellström & Lind, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#114
Long-term temperature and salinity records from the Baltic Sea transition zone (Madsen & Højerslev, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#125
Simulated crop yield — an indicator of climate variability (Saue & Kadaja, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#132
Changes in frequency of Baltic Sea cyclones and their relationships with NAO and climate in Estonia (Sepp, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#143
Highlights of the physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland reflecting potential climate changes (Soomere et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#152
Recurrence of heavy precipitation, dry spells and deep snow cover in Finland based on observations (Venäläinen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#166
Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium (Graham et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#173
Storm surges in the Odra mouth area during the 1997–2006 decade (Kowalewska-Kalkowska & Wisniewski, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#183
Adaptation to floods and droughts in the Baltic Sea basin under climate change (Kundzewicz, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#193
Comparison of regional and ecosystem CO2 fluxes (Gryning et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#204
Dependence of upwelling-mediated nutrient transport on wind forcing, bottom topography and stratification in the Gulf of Finland: Model experiments (Laanemets et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#213
Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change (Langner et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#226
Atmospheric CO2 variation over the Baltic Sea and the impact on air–sea exchange (Rutgersson et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#238
Towards policies and adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic Sea region — outputs of the ASTRA project (Leal Filho & Mannke, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber141.htm#250
Upwelling characteristics derived from satellite sea surface temperature data in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea (Uiboupin & Laanemets, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber142.htm#297
The effect of temperature and PAR on the annual photosynthetic production of Scots pine in northern Finland during 1906–2002 (Hari & Nöjd, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber14A.htm#005
Temporal variations in surface water CO2 concentration in a boreal humic lake based on high-frequency measurements (Huotari et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber14A.htm#048
The urban measurement station SMEAR III: Continuous monitoring of air pollution and surface–atmosphere interactions in Helsinki, Finland (Järvi et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber14A.htm#086
Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in two coastal wetlands in the northeastern Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea (Liikanen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber143.htm#351
Temperature and humidity characteristics of two willow stands, a peaty meadow and a drained pasture and their impact on landscape functioning (Brom & Pokorny, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber143.htm#389
A comprehensive network of measuring stations to monitor climate change (Hari et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#442
Smart-SMEAR: on-line data exploration and visualization tool for SMEAR stations (Junninen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#447
Measurements of humidified particle number size distributions in a Finnish boreal forest: derivation of hygroscopic particle growth factors (Birmili et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#458
A comparison of new particle formation events in the boundary layer at three different sites in Europe (Jaatinen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#481
Comparison of net CO2 fluxes measured with open- and closed-path infrared gas analyzers in an urban complex environment (Järvi et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#499
Physical and chemical characteristics of aerosol particles and cloud-droplet activation during the Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE) (Kivekäs et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#515
Snow scavenging of ultrafine particles: field measurements and parameterization (Kyrö et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#527
Aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer for measuring ultrafine aerosol particles (Laitinen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#539
Ozone concentration variations observed in northern Finland in relation to photochemical, transport and cloud processes (Laurila et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#550
Ion-UHMA: a model for simulating the dynamics of neutral and charged aerosol particles (Leppä et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#559
Overview of the research activities and results at Puijo semi-urban measurement station (Leskinen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#576
Long-term field measurements of charged and neutral clusters using Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) (Manninen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#591
eucalyptol the cause of nocturnal events observed in Australia? (Ortega et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#606
Connection between new particle formation and sulphuric acid at Hohenpeissenberg (Germany) including the influence of organic compounds (Paasonen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#616
Analysis of organic compounds in ambient aerosols collected with the particle-into-liquid sampler (Parshintsev et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#630
Observations of aerosol–cloud interactions at the Puijo semi-urban measurement station (Portin et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#641
The evolution of nucleation- and Aitken-mode particle compositions in a boreal forest environment during clean and pollution-affected new-particle formation events (Vaattovaara et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#662
Characteristics of new particle formation events and cluster ions at K-puszta, Hungary (Yli-Juuti et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#683
Carbon dioxide exchange on a northern boreal fen (Aurela et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#699
Spring recovery of photosynthesis and atmospheric particle formation (Dal Maso et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#711
Annual variations of atmospheric VOC concentrations in a boreal forest (Hakola et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#722
Long-term measurements of the carbon balance of a boreal Scots pine dominated forest ecosystem (Ilvesniemi et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#731
Pressure responses of portable CO2 concentration sensors (Kulmala et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#754
CO2 exchange and component CO2 fluxes of a boreal Scots pine forest (Kolari et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#761
Biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from the Eurasian taiga: current knowledge and future directions (Rinne et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber144.htm#807
Synoptic circulation and its influence on spring and summer surface ozone concentrations in southern Sweden (Tang et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber145.htm#889
Emissions of volatile halogenated compounds from a meadow in a coastal area of the Baltic Sea (Valtanen et al. 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber146.htm#915
Evaluating the diffuse attenuation coefficient of dry snow by using an artificial light source (Rasmus & Huttunen, 2009) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber146.htm#971
Prolongation of soil frost resulting from reduced snow cover increases nitrous oxide emissions from boreal forest soil (Maljanen et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber151.htm#001
Holocene groundwater table fluctuations in a small perched aquifer inferred from sediment record of Kankaanjärvi, SW Finland (Kaakinen et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber151.htm#001
An offline study of the impact of lakes on the performance of the ECMWF surface scheme (Dutra et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#100
The impact of lakes on the European climate as simulated by a regional climate model (Samuelsson et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#113
A study on effects of lake temperature and ice cover in HIRLAM (Eerola et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#130
Simulation of temperate freezing lakes by one-dimensional lake models: performance assessment for interactive coupling with regional climate models (Martynov et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#143
External data for lake parameterization in Numerical Weather Prediction and climate modeling (Kourzenova, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#165
Deriving an effective lake depth from satellite lake surface temperature data: a feasibility study with MODIS data (Balsamo et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#178
First steps of a Lake Model Intercomparison Project: LakeMIP (Stepanenko et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#191
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century (Krinner & Boike, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#203
Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO (Mironov et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#218
Coupling of the FLake model to the Surfex externalized surface model (Salgado & Le Moigne, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#231
Applicability of the FLake model to Lake Balaton (Vörös et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#245
Impact of warmer climate on Lake Geneva water-temperature profiles (Perroud & Goyette, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#255
Modeling the impact of global warming on water temperature and seasonal mixing regimes in small temperate lakes (Kirillin, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber152.htm#279
Depth induced breaking of wind generated surface gravity waves in Estonian coastal waters (Alari & Raudsepp, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber153.htm#295
Vertical and horizontal variation of carbon pools and fluxes in soil profile of wet southern taiga in European Russia (Šantrůčková et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber153.htm#357
Climate effects on zooplankton biomasses in a coastal Baltic Sea area (Hansson et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber153.htm#370
Validation of three-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Gulf of Finland (Myrberg et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber155.htm#453
Coupling the 1-D lake model FLake to the community land-surface model JULES (Rooney & Jones, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber155.htm#501
Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on climate in Latvia (Klavins & Rodinov, 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber156.htm#533
Quality assurance in the FMI Doppler Weather Radar Network (Saltikoff et al. 2010) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber156.htm#579
Geographical origin of aerosol particles observed during the LAPBIAT measurement campaign in spring 2003 in Finnish Lapland (Kaasik et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber161.htm#015
Occurrence of synoptic flaw leads of sea ice in the Gulf of Finland (Pärn & Haapala, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber161.htm#071
Characteristics and variability of the vertical thermohaline structure in the Gulf of Finland in summer (Liblik & Lips, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16A.htm#073
Coastal erosion processes in the eastern Gulf of Finland and their links with geological and hydrometeorological factors (Ryabchuk et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16A.htm#117
Wind forced currents over the shallow Naissaar Bank in the Gulf of Finland (Lilover et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16A.htm#164
Changes in phytoplankton communities along a north–south gradient in the Baltic Sea between 1990 and 2008 (Jaanus et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16A.htm#191
Radiative transfer simulations link boreal forest structure and shortwave albedo (Rautiainen et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber162.htm#091
Land use, geomorphology and climate as environmental determinants of emergent aquatic macrophytes in boreal catchments (Alahuhta et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber163.htm#185
Possible effects of climate change on potato crops in Estonia (Saue & Kadaja, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber163.htm#203
Below-cloud scavenging of aerosol particles by snow at an urban site in Finland (Paramonov et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber164.htm#304
land ecosystem–atmosphere processes study (iLEAPS) assessment of global observational networks (Guenther et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber164.htm#321
On measurements of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases in Siberia and future research needs (Kulmala et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber164.htm#337
Remote sensing based estimates of surface wetness conditions and growing degree days over northern Alberta, Canada (Akther & Hassan, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber165.htm#407
Northward density shift of bird species in boreal protected areas due to climate change (Virkkala & Rajasärkkä, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16B.htm#02
Eco-energy and urbanisation: messages from birds about wind turbine proliferation (Fox, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16B.htm#14
Do long-distance migrants use temperature variations along the migration route in Europe to adjust the timing of their spring arrival? (Halkka et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16B.htm#35
Using first arrival dates to infer bird migration phenology (Lindén, 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber16B.htm#49
Wave hindcast statistics in the seasonally ice-covered Baltic Sea (Tuomi et al. 2011) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber166.htm#451
Soil drought increases atmospheric fine particle capture efficiency of Norway spruce (Räsänen et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber171.htm#021
Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland (Laapas et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber171.htm#031
Seasonal changes in canopy leaf area index and MODIS vegetation products for a boreal forest site in central Finland (Rautiainen et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber171.htm#072
Comparison of atmospheric concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds, chloride and base cations at Ähtäri and Hyytiälä, Finland (Ruoho-Airola, 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber172.htm#128
Atlantic salmon abundance and size track climate regimes in the Baltic Sea (Huusko & Hyvärinen, 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber172.htm#139
Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Baltic States (Kriauciuniene et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber172.htm#150
Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact (Silvan et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber1734.htm#263
Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas (Stankūnavičius et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber175.htm#327
Climatology of cyclones with a southern origin, and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Estonia (Mändla et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber175.htm#363
Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff (Hänninen & Vuorinen, 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber175.htm#377
Summer concentrations of NMHCs in ambient air of the Arctic and Antarctic (Hellén et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber175.htm#385
Collapse and recovery of the European smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) population in a small boreal lake — an early warning of the consequences of climate change (Keskinen et al. 2012) http://www.borenv.net/BER/ber175.htm#398

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New research – climate change impacts on biosphere (August 26, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 26, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on biosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada (Chen et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12653/abstract

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest’s contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change.

Potential for adaptation to climate change in a coral reef fish (Munday et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13419/abstract

Abstract: Predicting the impacts of climate change requires knowledge of the potential to adapt to rising temperatures, which is unknown for most species. Adaptive potential may be especially important in tropical species that have narrow thermal ranges and live close to their thermal optimum. We used the animal model to estimate heritability, genotype by environment interactions and nongenetic maternal components of phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits in the coral reef damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Offspring of wild-caught breeding pairs were reared for two generations at current-day and two elevated temperature treatments (+1.5 and +3.0 °C) consistent with climate change projections. Length, weight, body condition and metabolic traits (resting and maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope) were measured at four stages of juvenile development. Additive genetic variation was low for length and weight at 0 and 15 days posthatching (dph), but increased significantly at 30 dph. By contrast, nongenetic maternal effects on length, weight and body condition were high at 0 and 15 dph and became weaker at 30 dph. Metabolic traits, including net aerobic scope, exhibited high heritability at 90 dph. Furthermore, significant genotype x environment interactions indicated potential for adaptation of maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope at higher temperatures. Net aerobic scope was negatively correlated with weight, indicating that any adaptation of metabolic traits at higher temperatures could be accompanied by a reduction in body size. Finally, estimated breeding values for metabolic traits in F2 offspring were significantly affected by the parental rearing environment. Breeding values at higher temperatures were highest for transgenerationally acclimated fish, suggesting a possible role for epigenetic mechanisms in adaptive responses of metabolic traits. These results indicate a high potential for adaptation of aerobic scope to higher temperatures, which could enable reef fish populations to maintain their performance as ocean temperatures rise.

Mapping gains and losses in woody vegetation across global tropical drylands (Tian et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13464/abstract

Abstract: Woody vegetation in global tropical drylands is of significant importance for both the inter-annual variability of the carbon cycle and local livelihoods. Satellite observations over the past decades provide a unique way to assess the vegetation long-term dynamics across biomes worldwide. Yet, the actual changes in the woody vegetation are always hidden by inter-annual fluctuations of the leaf density, because the most widely used remote sensing data are primarily related to the photosynthetically active vegetation components. Here, we quantify the temporal trends of the non-photosynthetic woody components (i.e. stems and branches) in global tropical drylands during 2000–2012 using the vegetation optical depth (VOD), retrieved from passive microwave observations. This is achieved by a novel method focusing on the dry season period to minimize the influence of herbaceous vegetation, and using MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to remove the inter-annual fluctuation of the woody leaf component. We revealed significant trends (p < 0.05) in the woody component (VODwood) in 35% of the areas characterized by a non-significant trend in the leaf component (VODleaf modeled from NDVI), indicating pronounced gradual growth/decline in woody vegetation not captured by traditional assessments. The method is validated using a unique record of ground measurements from the semi-arid Sahel and shows a strong agreement between changes in VODwood and changes in ground observed woody cover (r2 = 0.78). Reliability of the obtained woody component trends is also supported by a review of relevant literatures for eight hot-spot regions of change. The proposed approach is expected to contribute to an improved assessment of e.g. changes in dryland carbon pools.

Projected changes of Antarctic krill habitat by the end of the 21st century (Piñones & Fedorov, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069656/abstract

Abstract: Climate change is rapidly shaping the living environment of the most abundant keystone species of the Antarctic marine food web, Antarctic krill. Projected future changes for the krill habitat include a sustained increase in ocean temperature and changes in sea ice and chlorophyll a. Here we investigate how these factors affect the early life history of krill and identify the regions around Antarctica where the impact will be greatest. Our tool is a temperature-dependent krill growth model forced by data from comprehensive greenhouse warming simulations. We find that by the year 2100 localized regions along the western Weddell Sea, isolated areas of the Indian Antarctic , and the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea will support successful spawning habitats for krill. The failure of potentially successful spawning will have a strong impact on the already declining adult populations with consequences for the Antarctic marine food web, having both ecological and commercial ramifications.

‘Hearing’ alpine plants growing after snowmelt: ultrasonic snow sensors provide long-term series of alpine plant phenology (Vitasse et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1216-x

Abstract: In alpine environments, the growing season is severely constrained by low temperature and snow. Here, we aim at determining the climatic factors that best explain the interannual variation in spring growth onset of alpine plants, and at examining whether photoperiod might limit their phenological response during exceptionally warm springs and early snowmelts. We analysed 17 years of data (1998–2014) from 35 automatic weather stations located in subalpine and alpine zones ranging from 1560 to 2450 m asl in the Swiss Alps. These stations are equipped with ultrasonic sensors for snow depth measurements that are also able to detect plant growth in spring and summer, giving a unique opportunity to analyse snow and climate effects on alpine plant phenology. Our analysis showed high phenological variation among years, with one exceptionally early and late spring, namely 2011 and 2013. Overall, the timing of snowmelt and the beginning of plant growth were tightly linked irrespective of the elevation of the station. Snowmelt date was the best predictor of plant growth onset with air temperature after snowmelt modulating the plants’ development rate. This multiple series of alpine plant phenology suggests that currently alpine plants are directly tracking climate change with no major photoperiod limitation.

Other papers

Ocean acidification decreases plankton respiration: evidence from a mesocosm experiment (Spilling et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4707/2016/

Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems (Woodworth-Jefcoats et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13471/abstract

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion (Alatalo & Ferrarini, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1231-y

The temporal structure of the environment may influence range expansions during climate warming (Fey & Wieczynski, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13468/abstract

Plant adaptation or acclimation to rising CO2? Insight from first multigenerational RNA-Seq transcriptome (Watson-Lazowski et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13322/abstract

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources (Thomson, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12659/abstract

Climate, history and life-history strategies interact in explaining differential macroecological patterns in freshwater zooplankton (Henriques-Silva et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12505/abstract

Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100 (Payo et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1769-z

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors (Frölicher et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GB005338/abstract

Effect of ocean acidification and elevated fCO2 on trace gas production by a Baltic Sea summer phytoplankton community (Webb et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4595/2016/

Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985–2011 (Raynolds & Walker, 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085004/meta

Urban warming favours C4 plants in temperate European cities (Duffy & Chown, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12652/abstract

Warming-related shifts in the distribution of two competing coastal wrasses (Milazzo et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113616301155

Decadal changes in zooplankton abundance and phenology of Long Island Sound reflect interacting changes in temperature and community composition (Rice & Stewart, 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113616301349

Constraints of cold and shade on the phenology of spring ephemeral herb species (Aupspurger & Salk, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12651/abstract

Characterizing land surface phenology and responses to rainfall in the Sahara Desert (Yan et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003441/abstract

Predicted sea-level changes and evolutionary estimates for age of isolation in Central Mediterranean insular lizards (Raia et al. 2016) http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/08/10/0959683616660169.abstract

Distribution of Arctic and Pacific copepods and their habitat in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas (Sasaki et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4555/2016/

Ecosystem resilience to the Millennium drought in southeast Australia (2001–2009) (Sawada & Koike, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003356/abstract

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: A review (Runting et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13457/abstract

Assessing approaches to determine the effect of ocean acidification on bacterial processes (Burrell et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4379/2016/

Bacterial production in subarctic peatland lakes enriched by thawing permafrost (Deshpande et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4411/2016/

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates (Mathewson et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13454/abstract

Linkages between climate, seasonal wood formation and mycorrhizal mushroom yields (Primicia et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303392

Ocean acidification has little effect on developmental thermal windows of echinoderms from Antarctica to the tropics (Karelitz et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13452/abstract

Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985–2011 (Raynolds & Walker, 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085004/meta

Phytoplankton responses to temperature increases are constrained by abiotic conditions and community composition (Striebel et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3693-3

Continuous, long-term, high-frequency thermal imaging of vegetation: Uncertainties and recommended best practices (Aubrecht et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303434

A global classification of vegetation based on NDVI, rainfall and temperature (Zhang et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4847/abstract

The carbon fertilization effect over a century of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: higher intracellular CO2 and more drought resistance among invasive and native grass species contrasts with increased water use efficiency for woody plants in the US Southwest (Drake et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13449/abstract

A study of the impacts of climate change scenarios on the plant hardiness zones of Albania (Teqja et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0108.1

Testing the apparent resistance of three dominant plants to chronic drought on the Colorado Plateau (Hoover et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12647/abstract

Small global effect on terrestrial net primary production due to increased fossil fuel aerosol emissions from East Asia since the turn of the century (O’Sullivan et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068965/abstract

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada (Searle & Chen, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13420/abstract

Changes in growing season duration and productivity of northern vegetation inferred from long-term remote sensing data (Park et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084001/meta

Long-term CO2 fertilization increases vegetation productivity but has little effect on hydrological partitioning in tropical rainforests (Yang et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003475/abstract

Early ice retreat and ocean warming may induce copepod biogeographic boundary shifts in the Arctic Ocean (Feng et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011784/abstract

A productive role for science in assisted colonization policy (Neff & Carroll, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.420/abstract

Drought-induced vegetation shifts in terrestrial ecosystems: The key role of regeneration dynamics (Martínez-Vilalta & Lloret, 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301405

Biotic nitrogen fixation in the bryosphere is inhibited more by drought than warming (Whiteley & Gonzalez, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3601-x

Alpine bird distributions along elevation gradients: the consistency of climate and habitat effects across geographic regions (Chamberlain et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3637-y

Posted in Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – general climate science (August 23, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 23, 2016

Some of the latest papers on general climate science (i.e. papers that haven’t been included to any other categories) are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Reconsidering meteorological seasons in a changing climate (Kutta & Hubbart, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1704-3

Abstract: Traditional definitions of seasonality are insufficient to reflect changes associated with a swiftly changing climate. Regional changes in season onset and length using surface based metrics are well documented, but hemispheric assessments using tropospheric metrics has received little attention. The long-term average of six-hourly analyses of temperature on isobaric surfaces, provided by the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, is separated here into quartiles to determine climatologic seasonal end dates. Annual season end dates are defined as the date when the 5-day moving average rose above (winter and spring) or fell below (summer and fall) the long term mean. Climatic season end dates fall between meteorological and astronomical season end dates. The length of summer has increased by an average of 13 days and the length of winter has decreased by an average of 20 days, which are more substantial seasonal changes than previous studies. These changes in season length have occurred largely within the past 36 years, corresponding to most aggressive anthropogenic climate change. Results show that the planetary boundary layer is warming at nearly twice the rate of the free troposphere. The spatial distribution of warming suggests that topographically induced weather systems are collocated with maxima or minima in free tropospheric and boundary layer temperature slope. Furthermore, regions of greatest ensemble spread are not collocated with relative maxima or minima in free troposphere or boundary layer temperature slope. This improved assessment of seasonal transitions is useful to climatologists, agricultural land managers, and scientists interested in seasonally driven biology, hydrology and biogeochemical processes.

Mikhail Budyko’s (1920–2001) contributions to Global Climate Science: from heat balances to climate change and global ecology (Oldfield, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.412/abstract

Abstract: Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko (1920–2001) was a Soviet climatologist perhaps best known in the West for his contribution to understandings of climate change. He acted as director of the Main Geophysical Observatory (named after A.I. Voeikov) in Leningrad (St Petersburg) from 1954 and played an active role in advancing Soviet climate agendas within an international context. Three main stages in the development of Budyko’s work related to climate systems and global ecology (late 1940s-mid 1980s) are identified. The first period encompasses his early efforts devoted to understanding and quantifying the interrelationship between the lower atmosphere and the earth’s surface. This stage of his career was also characterized by a growing interest in regional- and global-scale processes, and was underpinned by collaborative work involving climatologists, physical geographers, and other cognate scientists. The second stage highlights the broadening of his global interest in order to engage more deeply with both natural and anthropogenic climatic and environmental change. The third stage reflects on the development of his expansive and evolutionary approach to the biosphere, and his insight into the formative role of climate with respect to the functioning of physical and biological processes. Furthermore, this later work also exhibited a strong belief in the ability of humankind to reflect wisely on its growing influence on the physical environment and respond appropriately.

Wave climate in the Arctic 1992–2014: seasonality and trends (Stopa, Ardhuin & Girard-Ardhuin, 2016) http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1605/2016/

Abstract: Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992–2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave–ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.

Flight paths of seabirds soaring over the ocean surface enable measurement of fine-scale wind speed and direction (Yonehara et al. 2016) http://www.pnas.org/content/113/32/9039.short

Abstract: Ocean surface winds are an essential factor in understanding the physical interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean. Surface winds measured by satellite scatterometers and buoys cover most of the global ocean; however, there are still spatial and temporal gaps and finer-scale variations of wind that may be overlooked, particularly in coastal areas. Here, we show that flight paths of soaring seabirds can be used to estimate fine-scale (every 5 min, ~5 km) ocean surface winds. Fine-scale global positioning system (GPS) positional data revealed that soaring seabirds flew tortuously and ground speed fluctuated presumably due to tail winds and head winds. Taking advantage of the ground speed difference in relation to flight direction, we reliably estimated wind speed and direction experienced by the birds. These bird-based wind velocities were significantly correlated with wind velocities estimated by satellite-borne scatterometers. Furthermore, extensive travel distances and flight duration of the seabirds enabled a wide range of high-resolution wind observations, especially in coastal areas. Our study suggests that seabirds provide a platform from which to measure ocean surface winds, potentially complementing conventional wind measurements by covering spatial and temporal measurement gaps.

The Climate of Titan (Mitchell & Lora, 2016) http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012428

Abstract: Over the past decade, the Cassini-Huygens mission to the Saturn system has revolutionized our understanding of Titan and its climate. Veiled in a thick organic haze, Titan’s visible appearance belies an active, seasonal weather cycle operating in the lower atmosphere. Here we review the climate of Titan, as gleaned from observations and models. Titan’s cold surface temperatures (∼90 K) allow methane to form clouds and precipitation analogously to Earth’s hydrologic cycle. Because of Titan’s slow rotation and small size, its atmospheric circulation falls into a regime resembling Earth’s tropics, with weak horizontal temperature gradients. A general overview of how Titan’s atmosphere responds to seasonal forcing is provided by estimating a number of climate-related timescales. Titan lacks a global ocean, but methane is cold-trapped at the poles in large seas, and models indicate that weak baroclinic storms form at the boundary of Titan’s wet and dry regions. Titan’s saturated troposphere is a substantial reservoir of methane, supplied by deep convection from the summer poles. A significant seasonal cycle, first revealed by observations of clouds, causes Titan’s convergence zone to migrate deep into the summer hemispheres, but its connection to polar convection remains undetermined. Models suggest that downwelling of air at the winter pole communicates upper-level radiative cooling, reducing the stability of the middle troposphere and priming the atmosphere for spring and summer storms when sunlight returns to Titan’s lakes. Despite great gains in our understanding of Titan, many challenges remain. The greatest mystery is how Titan is able to retain an abundance of atmospheric methane with only limited surface liquids, while methane is being irreversibly destroyed by photochemistry. A related mystery is how Titan is able to hide all the ethane that is produced in this process. Future studies will need to consider the interactions between Titan’s atmosphere, surface, and subsurface in order to make further progress in understanding Titan’s complex climate system.

Other papers

Identifying anomalously early spring onsets in the CESM large ensemble project (Labe et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3313-2

Drylands extent and environmental issues. A global approach (Pravalie, 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216302239

Was Venus the First Habitable World of our Solar System? (Way et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069790/abstract

Royal Navy logbooks as secondary sources and their use in climatic investigations: introducing the log-board (Norrgård, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4832/abstract

Flight paths of seabirds soaring over the ocean surface enable measurement of fine-scale wind speed and direction (Yonehara et al. 2016) http://www.pnas.org/content/113/32/9039.short

Climatology of cold season lake-effect cloud bands for the North American Great Lakes (Laird et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4838/abstract

Homogenization and assessment of observed near-surface wind speed trends across Sweden, 1956-2013 (Minola, Azorin-Molina & Chen, 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0636.1

Objective identification of multiple large fire climatologies: an application to a Mediterranean ecosystem (Ruffault et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075006/meta

Extension of summer climatic conditions into spring in the Western Mediterranean area (Jansa et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4824/abstract

Homogenized Variability of Radiosonde Derived Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height over the Global Land Surface from 1973 to 2014 (Wang & Wang, 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0766.1

ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record (Freeman et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4775/abstract

Posted in Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – atmospheric and oceanic circulation (August 10, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 10, 2016

Some of the latest papers on atmospheric and oceanic circulation are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere (Delworth et al. 2016) http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2738.html

Abstract: Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, large-scale warming and increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.

Evidence of global warming impact on the evolution of the Hadley Circulation in ECMWF centennial reanalyses (D’Agostino & Lionello, 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3250-0

Abstract: This study analyzes the evolution of the Hadley Circulation (HC) during the twentieth century in ERA-20CM (AMIP-experiment) and ERA-20C (reanalysis). These two recent ECMWF products provide the opportunity for a new analysis of the HC trends and of their uncertainties. Further, the effect of sea surface temperature forcing (including its uncertainty) and data assimilation are investigated. Also the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim, for the period 1979–2010, is considered for a complementary analysis. Datasets present important differences in characteristics and trends of the HC. In ERA-20C HC is weaker (especially the Southern Hemisphere HC) and the whole Northern Hemisphere HC is located more southward than in ERA-20CM (especially in the boreal summer). In ERA-Interim HC is stronger and wider than both other simulations. In general, the magnitude of trends is larger and more statistically significant in ERA-20C than in ERA-20CM. The presence of large multidecadal variability across twentieth century raises doubts on the interpretation of recent behavior, such as the onset of sustained long term trends, particularly for the HC strength. In spite of this, the southward shift of the Southern Edge and widening of the Southern Hemisphere HC appear robust features in all datasets, and their trends have accelerated in the last three decades, but actual expansion rates remain affected by considerable uncertainty. Inconsistencies between datasets are attributed to the different reproduction of the links between the HC width and factors affecting it (such as mean global temperature, tropopause height, meridional temperature contrast and planetary waves), which appear more robust in ERA-20CM than in ERA-20C, particularly for the two latter factors. Further, in ERA-Interim these correlations are not statistically significant. These outcomes suggest that data assimilation degrades the links between the HC and features influencing its dynamics.

Impact of slowdown of Atlantic overturning circulation on heat and freshwater transports (Kelly et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069789/abstract

Abstract: Recent measurements of the strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation at 26°N show a 1 year drop and partial recovery amid a gradual weakening. To examine the extent and impact of the slowdown on basin wide heat and freshwater transports for 2004–2012, a box model that assimilates hydrographic and satellite observations is used to estimate heat transport and freshwater convergence as residuals of the heat and freshwater budgets. Using an independent transport estimate, convergences are converted to transports, which show a high level of spatial coherence. The similarity between Atlantic heat transport and the Agulhas Leakage suggests that it is the source of the surface heat transport anomalies. The freshwater budget in the North Atlantic is dominated by a decrease in freshwater flux. The increasing salinity during the slowdown supports modeling studies that show that heat, not freshwater, drives trends in the overturning circulation in a warming climate.

The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change (Kennedy et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069725/abstract

Abstract: Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015-16 (Newman et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070373/abstract

Abstract: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-16, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this 2015-16 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

Other papers

Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating (Ghosh et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3283-4

Gridded, monthly rainfall and temperature climatology for El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts in the United States (Dourte et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4820/abstract

Southern European rainfall reshapes the early-summer circumglobal teleconnection after the late 1970s (Lin et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3306-1

Moisture and heat budgets of the south American monsoon system: climatological aspects (Garcia et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1882-y

The Relative Influence of ENSO and SAM on Antarctic Peninsula Climate (Clem et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025305/abstract

Sinuosity of mid-latitude atmospheric flow in a warming world (Cattiaux et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070309/abstract

ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions (Pausata et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069575/abstract

Remote influence of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on the South Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability (Lopez et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069067/abstract

Robust response of the Amundsen Sea Low to stratospheric ozone depletion (England et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070055/abstract

The response of winter Pacific North American pattern to strong volcanic eruptions (Liu et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3287-0

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a model with an improved North Atlantic Current (Drews & Greatbatch, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069815/abstract

Sub-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation variability in observations and the Kiel Climate Model (Reintges, Latif & Park, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3279-0

Is there a robust effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Southern Annular Mode? (Steptoe et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024218/abstract

Climate Signals in the Mid- to High-Latitude North Atlantic from Altimeter Observations (Li et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00670.1

Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate (Yang et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011513/abstract

Inter-basin effects of the Indian Ocean on Pacific decadal climate change (Mochizuki et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069940/abstract

The influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on the subsequent winter ENSO in CMIP5 models (Chen et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3243-z

Relationship between North American winter temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and its decadal variation (Yu et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074001/meta

Posted in Climate claims, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – carbon cycle (August 9, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 9, 2016

Some of the latest papers on carbon cycle are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle (Hewitt et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0161.1

Abstract: The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth System Models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way ANOVA approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times.

For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modelled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes, thus we can be more confident in linking different future socio-economic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The contribution of internal variance is negligible for ocean fluxes and small for land fluxes, indicating that there is little dependence on the initial conditions.

The apparent agreement in atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modelled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxes.

Rapid carbon loss and slow recovery following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands (Jones et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13403/abstract

Abstract: Permafrost peatlands store one-third of the total carbon (C) in the atmosphere and are increasingly vulnerable to thaw as high latitude temperatures warm. Large uncertainties remain about C dynamics following permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands. We used a chronosequence approach to measure C stocks in forested permafrost plateaus (forest) and thawed permafrost bogs, ranging in thaw age from young (100 years) in two Interior Alaska chronosequences. Permafrost originally aggraded simultaneously with peat accumulation (syngenetic permafrost) at both sites. We found that upon thaw, C loss of the forest peat C is equivalent to ~30% of the initial forest C stock and is directly proportional to the pre-thaw C stocks. Our model results indicate that permafrost thaw turned these peatlands into net C sources to the atmosphere for a decade following thaw, after which post-thaw bog peat accumulation returned sites to net C sinks. It can take multiple centuries to millennia for a site to recover its pre-thaw C stocks; the amount of time needed for them to regain their pre-thaw C stocks is governed by the amount of C that accumulated prior to thaw. Consequently, these findings show that older peatlands will take longer to recover pre-thaw C stocks, whereas younger peatlands will exceed pre-thaw stocks in a matter of centuries. We conclude that the loss of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost by 2100 could result in a loss of up to 24 Pg of deep C from permafrost peatlands.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi slow soil carbon cycling (Averill & Hawkes, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12631/abstract

Abstract: Respiration of soil organic carbon is one of the largest fluxes of CO2 on earth. Understanding the processes that regulate soil respiration is critical for predicting future climate. Recent work has suggested that soil carbon respiration may be reduced by competition for nitrogen between symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi that associate with plant roots and free-living microbial decomposers, which is consistent with increased soil carbon storage in ectomycorrhizal ecosystems globally. However, experimental tests of the mycorrhizal competition hypothesis are lacking. Here we show that ectomycorrhizal roots and hyphae decrease soil carbon respiration rates by up to 67% under field conditions in two separate field exclusion experiments, and this likely occurs via competition for soil nitrogen, an effect larger than 2 °C soil warming. These findings support mycorrhizal competition for nitrogen as an independent driver of soil carbon balance and demonstrate the need to understand microbial community interactions to predict ecosystem feedbacks to global climate.

Brazil’s Amazonian forest carbon: the key to Southern Amazonia’s significance for global climate (Fearnside, 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1007-2

Abstract: Southern Amazonia is the first region of Brazil’s Amazon area to be exposed to intensive conversion to agriculture and ranching. This conversion emits greenhouse gases from the carbon stock in the biomass and soils of the previous vegetation. Quantifying these carbon stocks is the first step in quantifying the impact on global warming from this conversion. This review is limited to information on Brazilian Amazonia’s carbon stocks. It indicates large amounts of carbon at risk of emission in both biomass and soils, as well as considerable uncertainty in estimates. Reducing uncertainty is a priority for research but the existence of uncertainty must not be used as an excuse for delaying measures to contain deforestation. The magnitude of carbon stocks is proportional to greenhouse gas emissions per hectare of deforestation and consequently to impact on global climate.

Long-term drainage reduces CO2 uptake and increases CO2 emission on a Siberian floodplain due to shifts in vegetation community and soil thermal characteristics (Kwon et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4219/2016/

Abstract: With increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns forecast for the Arctic over the coming decades, the thawing of ice-rich permafrost is expected to increasingly alter hydrological conditions by creating mosaics of wetter and drier areas. The objective of this study is to investigate how 10 years of lowered water table depths of wet floodplain ecosystems would affect CO2 fluxes measured using a closed chamber system, focusing on the role of long-term changes in soil thermal characteristics and vegetation community structure. Drainage diminishes the heat capacity and thermal conductivity of organic soil, leading to warmer soil temperatures in shallow layers during the daytime and colder soil temperatures in deeper layers, resulting in a reduction in thaw depths. These soil temperature changes can intensify growing-season heterotrophic respiration by up to 95 %. With decreased autotrophic respiration due to reduced gross primary production under these dry conditions, the differences in ecosystem respiration rates in the present study were 25 %. We also found that a decade-long drainage installation significantly increased shrub abundance, while decreasing Eriophorum angustifolium abundance resulted in Carex sp. dominance. These two changes had opposing influences on gross primary production during the growing season: while the increased abundance of shrubs slightly increased gross primary production, the replacement of E. angustifolium by Carex sp. significantly decreased it. With the effects of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production combined, net CO2 uptake rates varied between the two years, which can be attributed to Carex-dominated plots’ sensitivity to climate. However, underlying processes showed consistent patterns: 10 years of drainage increased soil temperatures in shallow layers and replaced E. angustifolium by Carex sp., which increased CO2 emission and reduced CO2 uptake rates. During the non-growing season, drainage resulted in 4 times more CO2 emissions, with high sporadic fluxes; these fluxes were induced by soil temperatures, E. angustifolium abundance, and air pressure.

Other papers

Quantifying Peat Carbon Accumulation in Alaska Using a Process-Based Biogeochemistry Model (Wang et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003452/abstract

Patterns of carbon processing at the seafloor: the role of faunal and microbial communities in moderating carbon flows (Woulds et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4343/2016/

Informing climate models with rapid chamber measurements of forest carbon uptake (Metcalfe et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13451/abstract

Direct and indirect effects of climatic variations on the interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange across terrestrial ecosystems (Shao et al. 2016) http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/30575

Decadal and long-term boreal soil carbon and nitrogen sequestration rates across a variety of ecosystems (Manies et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4315/2016/

Hotspots of gross emissions from the land use sector: patterns, uncertainties, and leading emission sources for the period 2000–2005 in the tropics (Roman-Cuesta et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4253/2016/

Large net CO2 loss from a grass-dominated tropical savanna in south-central Brazil in response to seasonal and interannual drought (De Arruda et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003404/abstract

How much CO2 is taken up by the European terrestrial biosphere? (Reuter et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00310.1

Coastal-ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon (Bourgeois et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4167/2016/

Drivers of atmospheric methane uptake by montane forest soils in the southern Peruvian Andes (Jones et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/4151/2016/

Persistent high temperature and low precipitation reduce peat carbon accumulation (Delarue, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13433/abstract

Methane oxidation in contrasting soil types: responses to experimental warming with implication for landscape-integrated CH4 budget (D’Imperio et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13400/abstract

Seeing the forest not for the carbon: why concentrating on land-use-induced carbon stock changes of soils in Brazil can be climate-unfriendly (Boy et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1008-1

Stability of grassland soil C and N pools despite 25 years of an extreme climatic and disturbance regime (Wilcox et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003370/abstract

Regional carbon fluxes from land use and land cover change in Asia, 1980–2009 (Calle et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074011/meta

Carbon cycle responses of semi-arid ecosystems to positive asymmetry in rainfall (Haverd et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13412/abstract

Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea (Wåhlström et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003307/abstract

Air-sea exchange of carbon dioxide in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic marginal ice zone (Butterworth & Miller, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069581/abstract

Earlier snowmelt reduces atmospheric carbon uptake in mid-latitude subalpine forests (Winchell et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069769/abstract

Four decades of modeling methane cycling in terrestrial ecosystems (Xu et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3735/2016/

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New research – hydrosphere (August 3, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 3, 2016

Some of the latest papers on hydrosphere (oceans, lakes, ponds, rivers, streams, etc.) are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Comparison of Global Precipitation Estimates across a Range of Temporal and Spatial Scales (Gehne et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0618.1

Abstract: Characteristics of precipitation estimates for rate and amount from three global High-resolution precipitation products (HRPPs), four global Climate Data Records (CDRs), and four reanalyses are compared. All data sets considered have at least daily temporal resolution. Estimates of global precipitation differ widely from one product to the next, with some differences likely due to differing goals in producing the estimates. HRPPs are intended to produce the best snapshot of the precipitation estimate locally. CDRs of precipitation emphasize homogeneity over instantaneous accuracy. Precipitation estimates from global reanalyses are dynamically consistent with the large scale circulation but tend to compare poorly to rain gauge estimates since they are forecast by the reanalysis system and precipitation is not assimilated. Regional differences among the estimates in the means and variances are as large as the means and variances, respectively. Even with similar monthly totals, precipitation rates vary significantly among the estimates. Temporal correlations among data sets are large at annual and daily time scales, suggesting that compensating bias errors at annual and random errors at daily time scales dominate the differences. However, the signal to noise ratio at intermediate (monthly) time scales can be large enough to result in high correlations overall. It is shown that differences on annual time scales and continental regions are around 0.8mm/d, which corresponds to 23W m−2. These wide variations in the estimates, even for global averages, highlight the need for better constrained precipitation products in the future.

Stable reconstruction of Arctic sea level for the 1950–2010 period (Svendsen et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011685/abstract

Abstract: Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is generally difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of both tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. Here a strategy to achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from 1950 to today is presented. This work is based on the combination of tide gauge records and a new 20-year reprocessed satellite altimetry derived sea level pattern. Hence the study is limited to the area covered by satellite altimetry (68ºN and 82ºN). It is found that timestep cumulative reconstruction as suggested by Church and White (2000) may yield widely variable results and is difficult to stabilize due to the many gaps in both tide gauge and satellite data. A more robust sea level reconstruction approach is to use datum adjustment of the tide gauges in combination with satellite altimetry, as described by (Ray and Douglas, 2011). In this approach, a datum-fit of each tide gauges is used and the method takes into account the entirety of each tide gauge record. This makes the Arctic sea level reconstruction much less prone to drifting.

From our reconstruction, we found that the Arctic mean sea level trend is around 1.5 mm +/- 0.3 mm/y for the period 1950 to 2010, between 68ºN and 82ºN. This value is in good agreement with the global mean trend of 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/y over the same period as found by Church and White (2004).

Lake Vanda: A sentinel for climate change in the McMurdo Sound Region of Antarctica (Castendyk et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811530014X

Abstract: Lake Vanda is a perennially ice-covered, meromictic, endorheic lake located in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and an exceptional sentinel of climate change within the region. Lake levels rose 15 m over the past 68 years in response to climate-driven variability in ice-cover sublimation, meltwater production, and annual discharge of the Onyx River, the main source of water to the lake. Evidence from a new bathymetric map and water balance model combined with annual growth laminations in benthic mats suggest that the most recent filling trend began abruptly 80 years ago, in the early 1930s. This change increased lake volume by > 50%, triggered the formation of a new, upper, thermohaline convection cell, and cooled the lower convection cell cooled by at least 2 °C and the bottom-most waters by at > 4 °C. Additionally, the depth of the deep chlorophyll a maximum rose by > 2 m, and deep-growing benthic algal mats declined while shallow benthic mats colonized freshly inundated areas. We attribute changes in hydrology to regional variations in air flow related to the strength and position of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) pressure system which have increased the frequency of down-valley, föhn winds associated with surface air temperature warming in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. The ASL has also been implicated in the recent warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and provides a common link for climate-related change on opposite sides of the continent. If this trend persists, Lake Vanda should continue to rise and cool over the next 200 years until a new equilibrium lake level is achieved. Most likely, future lake rise will lead to isothermal conditions not conducive to thermohaline convection, resulting in a drastically different physical, biogeochemical, and biological structure than observed today.

Ocean acidification in the subpolar North Atlantic: rates and mechanisms controlling pH changes (García-Ibáñez et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3701/2016/

Abstract: Repeated hydrographic sections provide critically needed data on and understanding of changes in basin-wide ocean CO2 chemistry over multi-decadal timescales. Here, high-quality measurements collected at twelve cruises carried out along the same track between 1991 and 2015 have been used to determine long-term changes in ocean CO2 chemistry and ocean acidification in the Irminger and Iceland basins of the North Atlantic Ocean. Trends were determined for each of the main water masses present and are discussed in the context of the basin-wide circulation. The pH has decreased in all water masses of the Irminger and Iceland basins over the past 25 years with the greatest changes in surface and intermediate waters (between −0.0010 ± 0.0001 and −0.0018 ± 0.0001 pH units yr-1). In order to disentangle the drivers of the pH changes, we decomposed the trends into their principal drivers: changes in temperature, salinity, total alkalinity (AT) and total dissolved inorganic carbon (both its natural and anthropogenic components). The increase in anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) was identified as the main agent of the pH decline, partially offset by AT increases. The acidification of intermediate waters caused by Cant uptake has been reinforced by the aging of the water masses over the period of our analysis. The pH decrease of the deep overflow waters in the Irminger basin was similar to that observed in the upper ocean and was mainly linked to the Cant increase, thus reflecting the recent contact of these deep waters with the atmosphere.

Uncertainty in the Himalayan energy–water nexus: estimating regional exposure to glacial lake outburst floods (Schwanghart et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074005/meta

Abstract: Himalayan water resources attract a rapidly growing number of hydroelectric power projects (HPP) to satisfy Asia’s soaring energy demands. Yet HPP operating or planned in steep, glacier-fed mountain rivers face hazards of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that can damage hydropower infrastructure, alter water and sediment yields, and compromise livelihoods downstream. Detailed appraisals of such GLOF hazards are limited to case studies, however, and a more comprehensive, systematic analysis remains elusive. To this end we estimate the regional exposure of 257 Himalayan HPP to GLOFs, using a flood-wave propagation model fed by Monte Carlo-derived outburst volumes of >2300 glacial lakes. We interpret the spread of thus modeled peak discharges as a predictive uncertainty that arises mainly from outburst volumes and dam-breach rates that are difficult to assess before dams fail. With 66% of sampled HPP are on potential GLOF tracks, up to one third of these HPP could experience GLOF discharges well above local design floods, as hydropower development continues to seek higher sites closer to glacial lakes. We compute that this systematic push of HPP into headwaters effectively doubles the uncertainty about GLOF peak discharge in these locations. Peak discharges farther downstream, in contrast, are easier to predict because GLOF waves attenuate rapidly. Considering this systematic pattern of regional GLOF exposure might aid the site selection of future Himalayan HPP. Our method can augment, and help to regularly update, current hazard assessments, given that global warming is likely changing the number and size of Himalayan meltwater lakes.

Other papers

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece (Markonis et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1878-7

The marine hydrological cycle: the Ocean’s floods and droughts (Gordon, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070279/abstract

The Contribution of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment to Projections of Sea Level Change Along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America (Love et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000363/abstract

Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern U.S (Pourmokhtarian et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13444/abstract

Data-model comparison of temporal variability in long-term time series of large-scale soil moisture (Verrot & Destouni, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025209/abstract

February drying in southeast Brazil and the Australian monsoon: Global mechanism for a regional rainfall feature (Kelly & Mapes, 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0838.1

Monotonic trends in spatio-temporal distribution and concentration of monsoon precipitation (1901–2002), West Bengal, India (Chatterjee et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516301880

The Curious Nature of the Hemispheric Symmetry of the Earth’s Water and Energy Balances (Stephens et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40641-016-0043-9

Aragonite saturation states and pH in western Norwegian fjords: seasonal cycles and controlling factors, 2005–2009 (Omar et al. 2016) http://www.ocean-sci.net/12/937/2016/

Elevation change and the vulnerability of Rhode Island (USA) salt marshes to sea-level rise (Raposa et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1020-5

Precipitation sensitivity to warming estimated from long island records (Polson et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074024/meta

Stomatal response to humidity and CO2 implicated in recent decline in U.S. evaporation (Rigden & Salvucci, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13439/abstract

International energy trade impacts on water resource crises: an embodied water flows perspective (Zhang et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074023/meta

Statistical analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes over the period 1930–2012 in the Nile River riparian countries (Onyutha, 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316302805

The influence from the shrinking cryosphere and strengthening evopotranspiration on hydrologic process in a cold basin, Qilian Mountains (Zongxing et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301508

Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming (Giorgi et al. 2016) http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2761.html

Assessing the impact of vertical land motion on 20th century global mean sea level estimates (Hamlington et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011747/abstract

No observed effect of ocean acidification on nitrogen biogeochemistry in a summer Baltic Sea plankton community (Paul et al. 2016) http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3901/2016/

Snowmelt Rate Dictates Streamflow (Barnhart et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069690/abstract

Impacts of open-ocean deep convection in the Weddell Sea on coastal and bottom water temperature (Wang et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3244-y

Intensification of upwelling along Oman coast in a Warming Scenario (Praveen et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069638/abstract

Ocean acidification affects marine chemical communication by changing structure and function of peptide signalling molecules (Roggatz et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13354/abstract

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New research – extreme weather (July 31, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 31, 2016

Some of the latest papers on extreme weather are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the 2015 European heat wave (Duchez et al. 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074004/meta

Abstract: The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.

Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity using outgoing longwave radiation over Africa (Karnauskas & Li, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069792/abstract

Abstract: Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances (e.g., easterly waves) and the background environment in which they develop into tropical storms (i.e., the main development region). Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success. Predictions of named storms based on the July OLR field and trained only on the time period prior to the year being predicted yield a success rate of 87%, compared to the success rate of NOAA’s August outlooks of 53% over the same period and with the same average uncertainty range (±2). The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends.

Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves (Argüeso et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069408/abstract

Abstract: Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves. Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions. We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes. More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes.

A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia (Barlow et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1

Abstract: The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate.

There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions (Woldemeskel & Sharma, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069448/abstract

Abstract: Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

Other papers

The evolution of temperature extremes in the Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec, Canada (1974–2013) (Fortin et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1859-x

On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events (Zorzetto et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069445/abstract

Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran (Modarres, Sarhadi & Burn, 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301035

An integrated analysis of the March 2015 Atacama floods (Wilcox et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069751/abstract

Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2 (Camargo et al. 2016)
http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/31494

Trends and variability in extremes of precipitation in Curitiba – Southern Brazil (Pedron et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4773/abstract

North Atlantic Storm Track Sensitivity to Projected Sea Surface Temperature: Local versus Remote Influences (Ciasto et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0860.1

Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia (Supari et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4829/abstract

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity (Schubert et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0673.1

A Situation-based Analysis of Flash Flood Fatalities in the United States (Terti et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00276.1

Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil (Oliveira et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1865-z

Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States? (Jung & Kirtman, 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074018/meta

Does population affect the location of flash flood reports? (Marjerison et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0329.1

The Physics of Drought in the U.S. Central Great Plains (Livneh & Hoerling, 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0697.1

Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast (Pattanaik et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00703-016-0469-6

Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives (Teufel et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3239-8

Posted in Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on mankind (July 28, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 28, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change (Mitchell et al. 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006/meta

Abstract: It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

Climate change and migration in the Pacific: options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands (Constable, 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1004-5

Abstract: As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

Rural drinking water issues in India’s drought-prone area: a case of Maharashtra state (Udmale et al. 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074013/meta

Abstract: Obtaining sufficient drinking water with acceptable quality under circumstances of lack, such as droughts, is a challenge in drought-prone areas of India. This study examined rural drinking water availability issues during a recent drought (2012) through 22 focus group discussions (FGDs) in a drought-prone catchment of India. Also, a small chemical water quality study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of water for drinking purpose based on Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The drought that began in 2011 and further deteriorated water supplies in 2012 caused a rapid decline in reservoir storages and groundwater levels that led, in turn, to the failure of the public water supply systems in the Upper Bhima Catchment. Dried up and low-yield dug wells and borewells, tanker water deliveries from remote sources, untimely water deliveries, and degraded water quality were the major problems identified in the FGDs. In addition to severe drinking water scarcity during drought, the quality of the drinking water was found to be a major problem, and it apparently was neglected by local governments and users. Severe contamination of the drinking water with nitrate-nitrogen, ammonium-nitrogen, and chlorides was found in the analyzed drinking water samples. Hence, in addition to the water scarcity, the results of this study point to an immediate need to investigate the problem of contaminated drinking water sources while designing relief measures for drought-prone areas of India.

Climate change impacts on European agriculture revisited: adding the economic dimension of grasslands (Aghajanzadeh-Darzi et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1018-z

Abstract: Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Collapse of Lowland Maya Civilization (Douglas et al. 2016)
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012512

Abstract: Paleoclimatologists have discovered abundant evidence that droughts coincided with collapse of the Lowland Classic Maya civilization, and some argue that climate change contributed to societal disintegration. Many archaeologists, however, maintain that drought cannot explain the timing or complex nature of societal changes at the end of the Classic Period, between the eighth and eleventh centuries ce. This review presents a compilation of climate proxy data indicating that droughts in the ninth to eleventh century were the most severe and frequent in Maya prehistory. Comparison with recent archaeological evidence, however, indicates an earlier beginning for complex economic and political processes that led to the disintegration of states in the southern region of the Maya lowlands that precedes major droughts. Nonetheless, drought clearly contributed to the unusual severity of the Classic Maya collapse, and helped to inhibit the type of recovery seen in earlier periods of Maya prehistory. In the drier northern Maya Lowlands, a later political collapse at ca. 1000 ce appears to be related to ongoing extreme drought. Future interdisciplinary research should use more refined climatological and archaeological data to examine the relationship between climate and social processes throughout the entirety of Maya prehistory.

Other papers

Death from respiratory diseases and temperature in Shiraz, Iran (2006–2011) (Dadbakhsh et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1206-z

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability (Pérez et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301182

Precipitation Effects on Motor Vehicle Crashes Vary by Space, Time and Environmental Conditions (Tamerius et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0009.1

The potential for adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan livestock systems (de Jalón et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1026-z

Can Gridded Precipitation Data and Phenological Observations Reduce Basis Risk of Weather Index-based Insurance? (Dalhaus et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0020.1

Sea surface temperature impacts on winter cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula (Capa-Morocho et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303045

Separating the effects of phenology and diffuse radiation on gross primary productivity in winter wheat (Williams et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003317/abstract

Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change (Cobon et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1732-z

Heat-related mortality: Effect modification and adaptation in Japan from 1972 to 2010 (Ng et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300656

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities (Antunes et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1196-x

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview (Weir et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1012-5

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050 (Röös et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1013-4

“Climate change damages”, conceptualization of a legal notion with regard to reparation under international law (Kugler & Sariego, 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300213

Temperature deviation index and elderly mortality in Japan (Lim et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-015-1091-x

Climatic influence on corn sowing date in the Midwestern United States (Choi et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4799/abstract

New Zealand kiwifruit growers’ vulnerability to climate and other stressors (Cradock-Henry, 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1000-9

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine (Mosedale et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13406/abstract

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on cryosphere (July 23, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 23, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on cryosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2751.html

Abstract: Antarctic sea-ice extent has been slowly increasing in the satellite record that began in 1979. Since the late 1990s, the increase has accelerated, but the average of all climate models shows a decline. Meanwhile, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an internally generated mode of climate variability, transitioned from positive to negative, with an average cooling of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, a slowdown of the global warming trend and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low near Antarctica that has contributed to regional circulation changes in the Ross Sea region and expansion of sea ice. Here we show that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in global coupled climate models is characterized by anomalies similar to the observed sea-level pressure and near-surface 850 hPa wind changes near Antarctica since 2000 that are conducive to expanding Antarctic sea-ice extent, particularly in the Ross Sea region in all seasons, involving a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low. These atmospheric circulation changes are shown to be mainly driven by precipitation and convective heating anomalies related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in the equatorial eastern Pacific, with additional contributions from convective heating anomalies in the South Pacific convergence zone and tropical Atlantic regions.

Million year old ice found under meter thick debris layer in Antarctica
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069889/abstract

Abstract: Cosmogenic nuclide measurements associated with buried glacier ice in Ong Valley, in the Transantarctic Mountains, suggest the preservation of ancient ice. There are three glacial tills on the valley floor which have formed from the concentration of regolith contained within sublimating glacier ice. Two tills are less than 1 m thick and underlain by ice. Measurements of cosmogenic 10Be, 26Al, and 21Ne show that (i) the youngest buried ice unit and corresponding till are at least 11–13 ka, (ii) another ice unit and corresponding intermediate-age till are at least 1.1 Ma old under any circumstances and most likely older than 1.78 Ma, and (iii) the oldest till is at least 1.57 Ma and most likely greater than 2.63 Ma. These observations highlight the longevity of ice under thin debris layers and the potential to sample ancient ice for paleoclimate/paleoatmosphere information close to the present land surface.

Accelerating retreat and high-elevation thinning of glaciers in central Spitsbergen
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1317/2016/

Abstract: Svalbard is a heavily glacier-covered archipelago in the Arctic. Dickson Land (DL), in the central part of the largest island, Spitsbergen, is relatively arid and, as a result, glaciers there are relatively small and restricted mostly to valleys and cirques. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of glacier changes in DL based on inventories compiled from topographic maps and digital elevation models for the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum, the 1960s, 1990, and 2009/2011. Total glacier area has decreased by  ∼ 38 % since the LIA maximum, and front retreat increased over the study period. Recently, most of the local glaciers have been consistently thinning in all elevation bands, in contrast to larger Svalbard ice masses which remain closer to balance. The mean 1990–2009/2011 geodetic mass balance of glaciers in DL is among the most negative from the Svalbard regional means known from the literature.

The Andes Cordillera. Part I: snow distribution, properties, and trends (1979–2014)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4804/abstract

Abstract: Snow cover presence, duration, properties, and water amount play a major role in Earth’s climate system through its impact on the surface energy budget. Snow cover conditions and trends (1979–2014) were simulated for South America – for the entire Andes Cordillera. Recent data sets and SnowModel developments allow relatively high-resolutions of 3-h time step and 4-km horizontal grid increment for this domain. US Geological Survey’s Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 topography, Global Land Cover (GlobCover), Randolph Glacier Inventory (v. 4.0) glacier, and NASA modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications data sets were used to simulate first-order atmospheric forcing (e.g. near-surface air temperature and precipitation, including the fraction of precipitation falling as snow) and terrestrial snow characteristics (e.g. snow cover days, snow water equivalent depth, and snow density). Simulated snow conditions were verified against moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer-derived snow cover extent and 3064 individual direct observations of snow depths. Regional variability in mean annual air temperature occurred: positive trends in general were seen in the high Andes Cordillera, and negative trends at relatively lower elevations both east and west of the Cordillera. Snow precipitation showed more heterogeneous patterns than air temperature due to the influence from atmospheric conditions, topography, and orography. Overall, for the Cordillera, much of the area north of 23°S had a decrease in the number of snow cover days, while the southern half experienced the opposite. The snow cover extent changed ∼−15% during the simulation period, mostly between the elevations of ∼3000 and 5000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). However, below 1000 m a.s.l. (in Patagonia) the snow cover extent increased. The snow properties varied over short distances both along and across the Andes Cordillera.

Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003–2012)
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1259/2016/

Abstract: Improving the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and ice sheet models (ISMs) to simulate spatiotemporal variations in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is crucial for prediction of future sea level rise. While several studies have examined recent trends in GrIS mass loss, studies focusing on mass variations at sub-annual and sub-basin-wide scales are still lacking. At these scales, processes responsible for mass change are less well understood and modeled, and could potentially play an important role in future GrIS mass change. Here, we examine spatiotemporal variations in mass over the GrIS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites for the January 2003–December 2012 period using a “mascon” approach, with a nominal spatial resolution of 100 km, and a temporal resolution of 10 days. We compare GRACE-estimated mass variations against those simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM and the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). In order to properly compare spatial and temporal variations in GrIS mass from GRACE with model outputs, we find it necessary to spatially and temporally filter model results to reproduce leakage of mass inherent in the GRACE solution. Both modeled and satellite-derived results point to a decline (of −178.9 ± 4.4 and −239.4 ± 7.7 Gt yr−1 respectively) in GrIS mass over the period examined, but the models appear to underestimate the rate of mass loss, especially in areas below 2000 m in elevation, where the majority of recent GrIS mass loss is occurring. On an ice-sheet-wide scale, the timing of the modeled seasonal cycle of cumulative mass (driven by summer mass loss) agrees with the GRACE-derived seasonal cycle, within limits of uncertainty from the GRACE solution. However, on sub-ice-sheet-wide scales, some areas exhibit significant differences in the timing of peaks in the annual cycle of mass change. At these scales, model biases, or processes not accounted for by models related to ice dynamics or hydrology, may lead to the observed differences. This highlights the need for further evaluation of modeled processes at regional and seasonal scales, and further study of ice sheet processes not accounted for, such as the role of subglacial hydrology in variations in glacial flow.

Other papers

The effects of Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution in a global climate model
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011835/abstract

Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2740.html

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in Greenland: a Review
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40641-016-0040-z

Long-term changes of glaciers in north-western Spitsbergen
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301084

Twelve-year cyclic surging episodes at Donjek Glacier in Yukon, Canada
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1427/2016/

Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1433/2016/

Effects of sources, transport and post-depositional processes on levoglucosan records in southeastern Tibetan glaciers
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024904/abstract

A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301023

Interaction of sea ice floe size, ocean eddies and sea ice melting
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069742/abstract

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074022/meta

Predictability of Arctic annual minimum sea ice patterns
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0102.1

Changes in summer sea ice, albedo, and portioning of surface solar radiation in the Pacific sector of Arctic Ocean during 1982-2009
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011831/abstract

Patterns of Sea-Ice Retreat in the Transition to a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0733.1

Sea ice leads in the Arctic Ocean: Model assessment, interannual variability and trends
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068696/abstract

Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024679/abstract

The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0651.1

The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0136.1

Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025164/abstract

Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2749.html

A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116300364

About the consistency between Envisat and CryoSat-2 radar freeboard retrieval over Antarctic sea ice
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1415/2016/

Monitoring surface deformation over permafrost with an improved SBAS-InSAR algorithm: With emphasis on climatic factors modeling
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302760

Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105126

Carbon loss and chemical changes from permafrost collapse in the northern Tibetan Plateau
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003235/abstract

The Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Snowpack and the Hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest, U.S.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0632.1

Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068520/abstract

Effect of snow grain shape on snow albedo
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0276.1

The Andes Cordillera. Part II: Rio Olivares Basin snow conditions (1979–2014), central Chile
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4828/abstract

Design of a scanning laser meter for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of snow depth and its application in the Alps and in Antarctica
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1495/2016/

Decreasing Spatial Dependence in Extreme Snowfall in the French Alps since 1958 under Climate Change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025427/abstract

A snow climatology of the Andes Mountains from MODIS snow cover data
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4795/abstract

Spatiotemporal Snowfall Variability in the Lake Michigan Region: How is Warming Affecting Wintertime Snowfall?
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0285.1

Posted in Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on biosphere (July 22, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 22, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on biosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13404/abstract

Abstract: Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world’s last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world’s major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity.

Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074021/meta

Abstract: The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ~16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June–July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

Air pollutants degrade floral scents and increase insect foraging times
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231016305210

Abstract: Flowers emit mixtures of scents that mediate plant-insect interactions such as attracting insect pollinators. Because of their volatile nature, however, floral scents readily react with ozone, nitrate radical, and hydroxyl radical. The result of such reactions is the degradation and the chemical modification of scent plumes downwind of floral sources. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are developed to investigate dispersion and chemical degradation and modification of floral scents due to reactions with ozone, hydroxyl radical, and nitrate radical within the atmospheric surface layer. Impacts on foraging insects are investigated by utilizing a random walk model to simulate insect search behavior. Results indicate that even moderate air pollutant levels (e.g., ozone mixing ratios greater than 60 parts per billion on a per volume basis, ppbv) substantially degrade floral volatiles and alter the chemical composition of released floral scents. As a result, insect success rates of locating plumes of floral scents were reduced and foraging times increased in polluted air masses due to considerable degradation and changes in the composition of floral scents. Results also indicate that plant-pollinator interactions could be sensitive to changes in floral scent composition, especially if insects are unable to adapt to the modified scentscape. The increase in foraging time could have severe cascading and pernicious impacts on the fitness of foraging insects by reducing the time devoted to other necessary tasks.

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12645/abstract

Abstract: Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species’ responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13417/abstract

Abstract: Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate – for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions – might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and non-warmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from 3-5 populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.

Short-term climate change manipulation effects do not scale up to long-term legacies: Effects of an absent snow cover on boreal forest plants
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12636/abstract

Abstract: 1.Despite time lags and non-linearity in ecological processes, the majority of our knowledge about ecosystem responses to long-term changes in climate originates from relatively short-term experiments.

2.We utilized the longest ongoing snow removal experiment in the world and an additional set of new plots at the same location in northern Sweden to simultaneously measure the effects of long-term (11 winters) and short-term (1 winter) absence of snow cover on boreal forest understorey plants, including effects on root growth and phenology.

3.Short-term absence of snow reduced vascular plant cover in the understorey by 42%, reduced fine root biomass by 16%, reduced shoot growth by up to 53%, and induced tissue damage on two common dwarf shrubs. In the long-term manipulation, more substantial effects on understorey plant cover (92% reduced) and standing fine root biomass (39% reduced) were observed, whereas other response parameters, such as tissue damage, were observed less. Fine root growth was generally reduced, and its initiation delayed by c. 3 (short-term) to 6 weeks (long-term manipulation).

4.Synthesis We show that one extreme winter with a reduced snow cover can already induce ecologically significant alterations. We also show that long-term changes were smaller than suggested by an extrapolation of short-term manipulation results (using a constant proportional decline). In addition, some of those negative responses, such as frost damage and shoot growth, were even absolutely stronger in the short-term compared to the long-term manipulation. This suggests adaptation or survival of only those individuals that are able to cope with these extreme winter conditions, and that the short-term manipulation alone would over-predict long-term impacts. These results highlight both the ecological importance of snow cover in this boreal forest, and the value of combining short- and long-term experiments side by side in climate change research.

Other papers

Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12650/abstract

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13440/abstract

A risk-benefit model to simulate vegetation spring onset in response to multi-decadal climate variability: Theoretical basis and applications from the field to the Northern Hemisphere
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303148

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13435/abstract

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13437/abstract

Effects of permafrost thaw on nitrogen availability and plant-soil interactions in a boreal Alaskan lowland
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12639/abstract

Explaining inter-annual variability of gross primary productivity from plant phenology and physiology
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303070

Realized climate niche breadth varies with population trend and distribution in North American birds
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12490/abstract

Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13429/abstract

Multiple cues influence multiple traits in the phenotypically plastic melanization of the cabbage white butterfly
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3694-2

Richer histories for more relevant policies: 42 years of tree cover loss and gain in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13434/abstract

Tracking the long-term responses of diatoms and cladocerans to climate warming and human influences across lakes of the Ring of Fire in the Far North of Ontario, Canada
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10933-016-9901-7

Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13415/abstract

Assessing European ecosystem stability to drought in the vegetation growing season
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12472/abstract

Phosphorus feedbacks may constrain tropical ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069241/abstract

Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3533/2016/

Earth science data records of global forest cover and change: Assessment of accuracy in 1990, 2000, and 2005 epochs
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302498

Climate change: consequences on the pollination of grasses in Perugia (Central Italy). A 33-year-long study
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1198-8

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13410/abstract

Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116300418

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13375/abstract

Fern species richness and abundance are indicators of climate change on high-elevation islands: evidence from an elevational gradient on Tahiti (French Polynesia)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1734-x

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/26/7195.short

Global change and ecosystem connectivity: How geese link fields of central Europe to eutrophication of Arctic freshwaters
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13280-016-0802-9

Herbivory and nutrient limitation protect warming tundra from lowland species’ invasion and diversity loss
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13397/abstract

Impacts of warming and elevated CO2 on a semi-arid grassland are non-additive, shift with precipitation, and reverse over time
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12634/abstract

Changes in Sahelian annual vegetation growth and phenology since 1960: A modeling approach
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301570

Growth and carbon relations of mature Picea abies trees under five years of free air CO2 enrichment
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12621/abstract

Assessment and prediction of the first-flowering dates for the major fruit trees in Korea using a multi-RCM ensemble
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4800/abstract

Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-015-1086-7

Infection risk decreases with increasing mismatch in host and pathogen environmental tolerances
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12641/abstract

Heat resistance throughout ontogeny: body size constrains thermal tolerance
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13407/abstract

Increased autumn rainfall disrupts predator-prey interactions in fragmented boreal forests
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13408/abstract

Bivalve aquaculture-environment interactions in the context of climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13346/abstract

Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12474/abstract

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