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Papers on COVID-19 and climate change

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 28, 2021

Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate (Fyfe et al. 2021). “These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.” J. C. Fyfe, V. Kharin, N. Swart, G. M. Flato, M. Sigmond, N. P. Gillett (2021). Science Advances 7(10):eabf7133.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP (Jones et al. 2021). “We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis.” Jones, C. D., Hickman, J. E., Rumbold, S. T., Walton, J., Lamboll, R. D., Skeie, R. B., et al. (2021). The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID-19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091883.

Climate Impacts of COVID‐19 Induced Emission Changes (Gettelman et al. 2021). “The average overall Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) peaks at +0.29 ± 0.15 Wm−2 in spring 2020.” … “However, the aerosol changes are the largest contribution to radiative forcing and temperature changes as a result of COVID‐19 affected emissions, larger than ozone, CO2 and contrail effects.” Gettelman, A., Lamboll, R., Bardeen, C. G., Forster, P. M., & Watson‐Parris, D. (2021). Climate impacts of COVID‐19 induced emission changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091805.

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19 (Forster et al. 2020). “As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies.” Forster, P.M., Forster, H.I., Evans, M.J. et al. Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 913–919 (2020).

Satellite-based estimates of decline and rebound in China’s CO2 emissions during COVID-19 pandemic (Zheng et al. 2020). “Between January and April 2020, China’s CO2 emissions fell by 11.5% compared to the same period in 2019, but emissions have since rebounded to pre-pandemic levels before the coronavirus outbreak at the beginning of January 2020 owing to the fast economic recovery in provinces where industrial activity is concentrated.” Bo Zheng, Guannan Geng, Philippe Ciais, Steven J. Davis, Randall V. Martin et al. (2020). Science Advances 6(49):eabd4998. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd4998

Fast Climate Responses to Aerosol Emission Reductions During the COVID‐19 Pandemic (Yang et al. 2020). “Assuming emission changes during lockdown, back‐to‐work and post‐lockdown stages of COVID‐19, climate model simulations show a surface warming over continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In January–March, there was an anomalous warming of 0.05–0.15 K in eastern China, and the surface temperature increase was 0.04–0.07 K in Europe, eastern United States, and South Asia in March–May.” Yang, Y., Ren, L., Li, H., Wang, H., Wang, P., Chen, L., et al. (2020). Fast climate responses to aerosol emission reductions during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089788.

Minimal Climate Impacts From Short‐Lived Climate Forcers Following Emission Reductions Related to the COVID‐19 Pandemic (Weber et al. 2020). “Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol‐cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78 mWm−2.” Weber, J., Shin, Y. M., Staunton Sykes, J., Archer‐Nicholls, S., Abraham, N. L., & Archibald, A. T. (2020). Minimal climate impacts from short‐lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090326.

Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (Liu et al. 2020). “The key result is an abrupt 8.8% decrease in global CO2 emissions (−1551 Mt CO2) in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The magnitude of this decrease is larger than during previous economic downturns or World War II. The timing of emissions decreases corresponds to lockdown measures in each country. By July 1st, the pandemic’s effects on global emissions diminished as lockdown restrictions relaxed and some economic activities restarted,…” Liu, Z., Ciais, P., Deng, Z. et al. Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nat Commun 11, 5172 (2020).

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement (Le Quéré et al. 2020). “Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average.” Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R.B., Jones, M.W. et al. Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 647–653 (2020).


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List of Papers on Global Warming Hiatus, v2.0 (308 papers)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 29, 2018

I have updated my list of papers on global warming hiatus to include papers published during 2017. There are also a few additions of earlier published papers.

The paper count is now 308.

The list can be downloaded from ResearchGate:

List of Global Warming Hiatus Papers, version 2

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.29065.70241

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New research, September 5, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 5, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Dramatically increased rate of observed hot record-breaking in recent Australian temperatures

Ice thickness in the Northwest Passage

Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

Evidence for Weakening of the Walker Circulation from Cloud Observations

Positive feedback in climate: stabilization or runaway, illustrated by a simple experiment

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Quantifying the resolution level where the GRACE satellites can separate Greenland’s glacial mass balance from surface mass balance (open access)

Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates (open access)

Is there a solar signal in lower stratospheric water vapour? (open access)

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses (open access)

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections (open access)

Using historical climate observations to understand future climate change crop yield impacts in the Southeastern US

Scientific advocacy, environmental interest groups, and climate change: are climate skeptic portrayals of climate scientists as biased accurate?

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

Exploring the economic case for climate action in cities

Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost (open access)

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization (open access)

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New research – December 2014

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on December 31, 2014

Some selected papers as included in my New research stream in Twitter and in Facebook during December 2014. There are 127 papers, which makes it about 4.1 papers per day.


Early twentieth-century warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength ABSTRACT
Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: Understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies ABSTRACT
Long-term changes in summer temperature anomaly patterns in Japan since the early 20th century ABSTRACT
Time irreversibility of mean temperature anomaly variations over China ABSTRACT
Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation ABSTRACT
The Oslo temperature series 1837–2012: homogeneity testing and temperature analysis ABSTRACT
Decadal variability of clouds, solar radiation and temperature at a high-latitude coastal site in Norway (open access) ABSTRACT
Using land cover, population and night light data for assessing local temperature differences in Mainz, Germany ABSTRACT
Is the Monthly Temperature Climate of the United States Becoming More Extreme? ABSTRACT
Variations in extreme temperature and precipitation for a Caribbean island: Trinidad ABSTRACT
World’s greatest rainfall intensities observed by satellites ABSTRACT
Changing characteristics of precipitation during 1960–2012 in Inner Mongolia, northern China ABSTRACT
Hierarchical analysis of rainfall variability across Nigeria ABSTRACT
Small lakes show muted climate change signal in deep-water temperatures ABSTRACT
Spectral signatures of Earth’s climate variability over 5 years from IASI ABSTRACT
Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake ABSTRACT
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission (open access) ABSTRACT
Understanding the systematic air temperature biases in a coupled climate system model through a process-based decomposition method ABSTRACT
Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4 (open access) ABSTRACT
Relationship between sunshine duration and air temperature and contemporary global warming ABSTRACT
Seasonal cycle and long-term trend of solar energy fluxes through Arctic sea ice (open access) ABSTRACT
Effects of Arctic haze on surface cloud radiative forcing ABSTRACT
On the role of sulfates in recent global warming: a Granger causality analysis ABSTRACT
Observed multi-variable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity ABSTRACT
Evaluating biases in simulated snow albedo feedback in two generations of climate models ABSTRACT
Potential climate forcing of land use and land cover change (open access) ABSTRACT
Assessing climatic impacts of future land use and land cover change projected with the CanESM2 model ABSTRACT
Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland (open access) ABSTRACT
Arctic greening can cause earlier seasonality of Arctic amplification ABSTRACT
The extreme drought episode of August 2011–May 2012 in the Czech Republic ABSTRACT
How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought? ABSTRACT
Global Warming and Changes in Risk of Concurrent Climate Extremes: Insights from the 2014 California Drought ABSTRACT
Investigating uncertainties in global gridded datasets of climate extremes (open access) ABSTRACT
Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world (open access) ABSTRACT
Future increase of super-typhoon intensity associated with climate change ABSTRACT
The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States ABSTRACT
Fatalities of neglect: adapt to more intense hurricanes under global warming? ABSTRACT
Are Special Processes At Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones? ABSTRACT
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate (open access) ABSTRACT
The impact of natural and anthropogenic climate change on Western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks ABSTRACT
Understanding the El Niño-like oceanic response in the tropical Pacific to global warming ABSTRACT
ENSO influence upon global temperature in nature and in CMIP5 simulations ABSTRACT
The Curious Case of the El Niño That Never Happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting (open access) ABSTRACT
Land surface anomalies preceding the 2010 Russian heat wave and a link to the North Atlantic oscillation (open access) ABSTRACT
The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the Iraqi climate 1982–2000 ABSTRACT
Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies (open access) ABSTRACT
Stratospheric ozone depletion from future nitrous oxide increases (open access) ABSTRACT
The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss on Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation and climate (open access) ABSTRACT
Is the present the key to the future? ABSTRACT
Practising historical climatology in West Africa: a climatic periodisation 1750–1800 ABSTRACT


Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet’s response time scale ABSTRACT
Assessing spatio-temporal variability and trends in modelled and measured Greenland Ice Sheet albedo (2000–2013) (open access) ABSTRACT
Subsurface imaging reveals a confined aquifer beneath an ice-sealed Antarctic lake ABSTRACT
Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods (open access) ABSTRACT
Direct measurement of glacier thinning on the southern Tibetan Plateau (Gurenhekou, Kangwure and Naimona’Nyi glaciers) ABSTRACT
Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photography (open access) ABSTRACT
Post-LIA glacier changes along a latitudinal transect in the Central Italian Alps (open access) ABSTRACT
Glacier topography and elevation changes derived from Pléiades sub-meter stereo images (open access) ABSTRACT
Rapid dynamic activation of a marine-based Arctic ice cap ABSTRACT
Recent advances in understanding the Arctic climate system state and change from a sea ice perspective: a review (open access) ABSTRACT
Atmospheric Response in Summer linked to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss ABSTRACT
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic sea ice loss ABSTRACT
Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 50 years ABSTRACT
Temperature sensitivity as an explanation of the latitudinal pattern of green-up date trend in Northern Hemisphere vegetation during 1982–2008 ABSTRACT
No growth stimulation of tropical trees by 150 years of CO2 fertilization but water-use efficiency increased ABSTRACT
Greater deciduous shrub abundance extends tundra peak season and increases modeled net CO2 uptake ABSTRACT
Temperature-induced recruitment pulses of Arctic dwarf shrub communities ABSTRACT
Assessing phenological change and climatic control of alpine grasslands in the Tibetan Plateau with MODIS time series ABSTRACT
Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas ABSTRACT
Climate-induced changes in host tree-insect phenology may drive ecological state-shift in boreal forest ABSTRACT
General patterns of acclimation of leaf respiration to elevated temperatures across biomes and plant types ABSTRACT
Fruitful factors: what limits seed production of flowering plants in the alpine? ABSTRACT
Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change ABSTRACT
Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain ABSTRACT
Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate (open access) ABSTRACT
Limpets counteract ocean acidification induced shell corrosion by thickening of aragonitic shell layers (open access) ABSTRACT
Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk (open access) ABSTRACT
Galápagos Coral Reef Persistence after ENSO Warming Across an Acidification Gradient ABSTRACT
Detecting and understanding the accelerated sea level rise along the east coast of U.S. during recent decades ABSTRACT
How the AMOC affects ocean temperatures on decadal to centennial timescales: the North Atlantic versus an interhemispheric seesaw ABSTRACT
Global radiative adjustment after a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ABSTRACT
Critical elevation levels for flooding due to sea-level rise in Hawai‘i ABSTRACT
From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise (open access) ABSTRACT
Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy (open access) ABSTRACT
Multimodel simulations of Arctic Ocean sea surface height variability in the period 1970–2009 ABSTRACT
Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle In CMIP5 projections (open access) ABSTRACT
Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A. ABSTRACT
On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century (open access) ABSTRACT
Quantification of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean basin in Sardinia, Italy, through high-resolution simulations (open access) ABSTRACT
Responses of global terrestrial evapotranspiration to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century (open access) ABSTRACT
Diurnal temperature range and short-term mortality in large US communities ABSTRACT
Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China ABSTRACT
Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods ABSTRACT
Association between climate factors and diarrhoea in a Mekong Delta area ABSTRACT


Satellite-inferred European carbon sink larger than expected (open access) ABSTRACT
Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps (open access) ABSTRACT
Nitrogen availability reduces CMIP5 projections of 21st century land carbon uptake ABSTRACT
Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space ABSTRACT
Net regional methane sink in High Arctic soils of northeast Greenland ABSTRACT
Managing short-lived climate forcers in curbing climate change: an atmospheric chemistry synopsis ABSTRACT
Key role for nuclear energy in global biodiversity conservation (open access) ABSTRACT
China’s approach to nuclear safety — From the perspective of policy and institutional system ABSTRACT
Radioactivity impacts of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident on the atmosphere ABSTRACT
Effects of Climate Oscillations on Wind Resource Variability in the United States ABSTRACT
Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model (open access) ABSTRACT
The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration Policies for Climate Change Mitigation ABSTRACT
Increase in surface albedo caused by agricultural plastic film ABSTRACT
Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors, and sulfate and titania aerosols ABSTRACT
Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable (open access) ABSTRACT
Unilateral Climate Policies: Incentives and Effects ABSTRACT
Corruption and Climate Change Policies: Do the Bad Old Days Matter? ABSTRACT
Disentangling the ranges: climate policy scenarios for China and India ABSTRACT
People as sensors: Mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter ABSTRACT
Perceptions of climate change risk in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns ABSTRACT
Social vulnerability in three high-poverty climate change hot spots: What does the climate change literature tell us? ABSTRACT
Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change ABSTRACT


Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years (open access) ABSTRACT
Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: A critical evaluation of methods ABSTRACT
Early summer temperatures reconstructed from black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) tree-ring widths from Albania ABSTRACT
Damaging hailstorms in South Moravia, Czech Republic, in the seventeenth to twentieth centuries as derived from taxation records ABSTRACT
Millennial meridional dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the last termination (open access) ABSTRACT
Interdecadal Pacific variability and eastern Australian mega-droughts over the last millennium ABSTRACT
Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum ABSTRACT
Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium (open access) ABSTRACT
Revision of the EPICA Dome C CO2 record from 800 to 600 kyr before present ABSTRACT


Detecting change in urban areas at continental scales with MODIS data ABSTRACT
Is the Anthropocene really worthy of a formal geologic definition? (open access) ABSTRACT

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What doesn’t change with climate?

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on March 8, 2013

Global warming and subsequent climate change have a lot of different effects. The composition of the atmosphere changes. The troposphere swells and the atmosphere gets wetter. Oceans warm and expand. There are chemical changes in the ocean waters. Well known example of that is the ocean acidification caused by the increasing carbon dioxide concentration.

The biosphere gets shuffled. Some species shift to other places looking for more suitable conditions in which to live. Body shape and/or size changes for some species. The timetables between species get all mixed up. For example, because of an earlier spring the available food (caterpillars) is gone before the eggs of migratory birds hatch. Some, or according to predictions quite many, of the species will even go extinct.

Glaciers and ice sheets are melting. There are changes even in the lithosphere when the pressing weight of the ice sheets and glaciers is reduced as they melt into the ocean. Today at some places we can still see this same effect at work as the Earth’s crust is uplifting because the weight of the ice sheets that were there during the last glaciation (i.e. the “ice age”) was removed when the ice melted away. This effect also affects the asthenosphere, a viscous layer below the lithosphere.

So the climate change shows up everywhere – in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, asthenosphere, and beyond. Is there anything within Earth’s system that doesn’t change with climate?

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