AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

Archive for May, 2016

New research, May 27, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 27, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Constraints on climate sensitivity from space-based measurements of low-cloud reflection

Role of Indian Ocean SST Variability on the Recent Global Warming Hiatus

Observed concentration budgets of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice

Dynamic preconditioning of the minimum September sea-ice extent

Modeling debris-covered glaciers: response to steady debris deposition (open access)

The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: a 10-year simulation with a coupled atmosphere–glacier mass balance model (open access)

Ecosystem impacts of climate extremes crucially depend on the timing

Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic Arctic Region

Spectral analysis of sea level during the altimetry era, and evidence for GIA and glacial melting fingerprints

Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

Spatial Redistribution of USA Tornado Activity between 1954 and 2013

Modeling financial losses resulting from tornadoes in European countries

Future acidification of marginal seas: A comparative study of the Japan/ East Sea and the South China Sea

Overlooked methane transport process controls significant portion of a wetland’s methane emissions

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road (open access)

Urban effects on summertime air temperature in Germany under climate change

Variability of growing degree days in Poland in response to ongoing climate changes in Europe (open access)

Impact of climate variability and anthropogenic activity on streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, Tibetan Plateau, China

Can the Tibetan Plateau snow cover influence the interannual variations of Eurasian heat wave frequency?

Risk factors for deaths during the 2009 heat wave in Adelaide, Australia: a matched case-control study

The influence of soil moisture deficits on Australian heatwaves (open access)

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

Local short-term variability in solar irradiance (open access)

The Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project: Framework and First Results

Human adaptation to mid- to late-Holocene climate change in Northeast Thailand

Onset and demise of Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Events: the coupling of surface and bottom oceanic processes in two pelagic basins of the western Tethys

Prebiotic chemistry and atmospheric warming of early Earth by an active young Sun

Time series analysis of satellite data reveals continuous deforestation of New England since the 1980s (open access)

A critical analysis of energy efficiency improvement potentials in Taiwan’s cement industry


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New research, May 23, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 23, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes (open access)

When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa? (open access)

Attribution of the spring snow cover extent decline in the Northern Hemisphere, Eurasia and North America to anthropogenic influence

Future land-use related water demand in California (open access)

Detection of anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme temperatures in China

Linear Additive Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Reduction and La Niña on Northern Hemispheric Winter Climate

Interactions between sea-level rise and wave exposure on reef island dynamics in the Solomon Islands (open access)

Climate change and ecosystem services

Long-term climate impacts on breeding bird phenology in Pennsylvania, USA

A novel analysis of spring phenological patterns over Europe based on co-clustering

Urban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover (open access)

Interactions between urban vegetation and surface urban heat islands: a case study in the Boston metropolitan region (open access)

Temperature affects the morphology and calcification of Emiliania huxleyi strains (open access)

Bud break responds more strongly to daytime than nighttime temperature under asymmetric experimental warming

Enhancement of non-CO2 radiative forcing via intensified carbon cycle feedbacks (open access)

Surface air temperature variability and trends in the Arctic: new amplification assessment and regionalisation (open access)

Future Arctic Temperature Change resulting from a Range of Aerosol Emissions Scenarios (open access)

Quantifying Greenland freshwater flux underestimates in climate models

Four-decade record of pervasive grounding line retreat along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica

A lagrangian view of longwave radiative fluxes for understanding the direct heating response to a CO2 increase

The Role of Large-Scale Feedbacks in Cumulus Convection Parameter Estimation

Multi-annual ocean-atmosphere adjustments to radiative forcing

Impact of synoptic atmospheric forcing on the mean ocean circulation

On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions (open access)

Climate change and projections for the Barents region: what is expected to change and what will stay the same? (open access)

Regime shift of the South China Sea SST in the late 1990s

Spatiotemporal investigation of long-term seasonal temperature variability in Libya

Temporal variations of atmospheric CO2 and CO at Ahmedabad in western India (open access)

Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Impacts of the superimposed climate trends on droughts over 1961–2013 in Xinjiang, China

Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland

Importance of soil thermal regime in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the circumpolar north

Radiocarbon in dissolved organic carbon of the Atlantic Ocean

The urban cool island phenomenon in a high-rise high-density city and its mechanisms

Regional influences of natural external forcings on the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age

Coral Sr-U Thermometry

Resources of dark skies in German climatic health resorts

Climate change, malaria, and public health: accounting for socioeconomic contexts in past debates and future research

The politicization of climate change: problem or solution?

From dwindling ice to headwater lakes: could dams replace glaciers in the European Alps? (open access)

China’s goal to increase non-fossil energy sources (open access)

Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2°C target (open access)

Spatially explicit estimates of N2O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management

The durability of building materials under a changing climate

Impacts of adaptation and responsibility framings on attitudes towards climate change mitigation

(Mis)communicating climate change? Why online adaptation databases may fail to catalyze adaptation action

Addressing the risk of maladaptation to climate change

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New research, May 16, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 16, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Geophysical constraints on the Antarctic sea ice cover

Australasian temperature reconstructions spanning the last millennium

Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in optimum lay date (open access)

Simulated response of the Pacific decadal oscillation to climate change

Sensitivity of global ocean heat content from reanalyses to the Atmospheric reanalysis forcing: A comparative study

Influences of riverine and upwelling waters on the coastal carbonate system off Central Chile, and their ocean acidification implications

Ocean acidification: assessing the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems in Small Island Developing States

On the stability and spatiotemporal variance distribution of salinity in the upper ocean

Arctic layer salinity controls heat loss from deep Atlantic layer in seasonally ice-covered areas of the Barents Sea

Expansion of denitrification and anoxia in the eastern tropical North Pacific from 1972 – 2012

Climate change reduces warming potential of nitrous oxide by an enhanced Brewer-Dobson circulation

Fast responses of climate system to carbon dioxide, aerosols and sulfate aerosols without the mediation of SST in the CMIP5

Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations

The Influence of Southern Ocean Winds on the North Atlantic Carbon Sink

Decadal trends in the seasonal-cycle amplitude of terrestrial CO2 exchange resulting from the ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (open access)

Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

Carbon dioxide and methane supersaturation in lakes of semi-humid/semi-arid region, Northeastern China

Equatorward phytoplankton migration during a cold spell within the Late Cretaceous super-greenhouse (open access)

Circumpolar vegetation dynamics product for global change study

Integrating parameter uncertainty of a process-based model in assessments of climate change effects on forest productivity

The Effect of Competition on Responses to Drought and Inter-annual Climate Variability of a Dominant Conifer Tree of Western North America

Evaluating confidence in climate-based predictions of population change in a migratory species

Distribution, attribution, and radiative forcing of snow cover changes over China from 1982 to 2013

Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U.S. snowpack variability

Impacts of recent climate change on trends in baseflow and stormflow in United States watersheds

Assessing the health effects of climate change in Alaska with community-based surveillance

Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe both in summer and winter seasons

Future climate of the Carpathians: climate change hot-spots and implications for ecosystems

Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria

A study on the enhancing earthquake frequency in northern Pakistan: is the climate change responsible?

Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions

Climatic changes and their impact on socio-economic sectors in the Bhutan Himalayas: an implementation strategy

Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil

Large-scale impact of climate change versus land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Impact of Aviation on Climate: FAA’s Aviation Climate Change Research Initiative (ACCRI) Phase II (open access)

Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960–2010 (open access)

Past ice-sheet behaviour: retreat scenarios and changing controls in the Ross Sea, Antarctica (open access)

Combining lake core records with the limnologic model DYRESM-CAEDYM to evaluate lake response during the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly

Multi-method observation and analysis of a tsunami caused by glacier calving (open access)

A statistical framework for estimating air temperature using MODIS land surface temperature data

Illuminating the capabilities of Landsat 8 for mapping night lights

Climate adaptation of food value chains: the implications of varying consumer acceptance

The Carbon Ask: effects of climate policy on the value of fossil fuel resources and the implications for technological innovation

Renewable energy deployment in Europe up to 2030 and the aim of a triple dividend

The effectiveness of China’s wind power policy: An empirical analysis

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New research, May 12, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 12, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

The Super Greenhouse effect in a changing climate

The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate

Comparison of Climate Response to Anthropogenic Aerosol versus Greenhouse Gas Forcing: Distinct Patterns

What Caused the Recent “Warm Arctic, Cold Continents” Trend Pattern in Winter Temperatures?

An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level

Quantifying atmospheric methane emissions from oil and natural gas production in the Bakken shale region of North Dakota

Methane fluxes from the sea to the atmosphere across the Siberian shelf seas

Decadal trends in air-sea CO2 exchange in the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

Evidence of recent changes in the ice regime of lakes in the Canadian High Arctic from spaceborne satellite observations (open access)

Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

Phenology and species determine growing-season albedo increase at the altitudinal limit of shrub growth in the sub-Arctic

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients, and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations

Regional atmospheric cooling and wetting effect of permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss

Natural hazards in Australia: floods

Relative Roles of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases in Land and Oceanic Monsoon Changes during Past 156 years in CMIP5 Models

Early Summer Response of the East Asian Summer Monsoon to Atmospheric CO2 Forcing and Subsequent Sea Surface Warming

The main characteristics of atmospheric circulation over East-Central Europe from 1871 to 2010

A climatology of clouds in marine cold air outbreaks in both hemispheres

Thermohaline Instability and the Formation of Glacial North Atlantic Super Polynyas at the Onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger Warming Events

Ice core reconstruction of sea ice change in the Amundsen-Ross Seas since 1702 AD

Spatial climate dynamics in the Iberian Peninsula since 15 000 yr BP (open access)

The impact of Southern Ocean residual upwelling on atmospheric CO2 on centennial and millennial timescales

A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

The energy requirements of a developed world

Nuclear and intermittent renewables: Two compatible supply options? The case of the French power mix

Connecting Climate Information Producers and Users: Boundary Organization, Knowledge Networks, and Information Brokers at Caribbean Climate Outlook Forums

Weather Effects on Social Movements: Evidence from Washington D.C. and New York City, 1960-1995

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New research, May 6, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 6, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

Reduction of climate sensitivity to solar forcing due to stratospheric ozone feedback

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

The extreme European summer of 2015 in a long-term perspective

Reconstructed and simulated temperature asymmetry between continents in both hemispheres over the last centuries

Cenozoic mean GHG and temperature changes with reference to the Anthropocene

Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (open access)

Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes ?

Climate change, multiple stressors and human vulnerability: a systematic review

Impacts of temperature change on ambulance dispatches and seasonal effect modification

How Do Green Roofs Mitigate Urban Thermal Stress under Heat Waves?

Global impact of tropical cyclones on primary production

Biome-specific scaling of ocean productivity, temperature, and carbon export efficiency

Impact of water table level on annual carbon and greenhouse gas balances of a restored peat extraction area (open access)

Differential response of alpine steppe and alpine meadow to climate warming in the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Foraging behaviour, swimming performance and malformations of early stages of commercially important fishes under ocean acidification and warming

Climate-driven changes to ocean circulation and their inferred impacts on marine dispersal patterns

Potential trends in snowmelt generated peak streamflows in a warming climate

Drinking water vulnerability to climate change and alternatives for adaptation in coastal South and South East Asia

Simulating the extreme 2013/14 winter in a future climate

Midlatitude cloud shifts, their primary link to the Hadley cell, and their diverse radiative effects

Daytime Cirrus Cloud Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Forcing Properties at a Midlatitude Site and their Global Consequence

The influence of continental shelf bathymetry on Antarctic Ice Sheet response to climate forcing

Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard

Greenland Blocking Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal (open access)

Intensification of the Western North Pacific Anticyclone Response to the Short Decaying El Niño Event due to Greenhouse Warming

Does vertical temperature gradient of the atmosphere matter for El Niño development?

An Observational Analysis: Tropical Relative to Arctic influence on Mid-latitude Weather in the Era of Arctic Amplification

Changes of storm properties in the United States: Observations and multimodel ensemble projections

Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO2 emissions with tree ring archives (open access)

Collective responsibility amplifies mitigation behaviors

The influence of economic growth, population, and fossil fuel scarcity on energy investments

Implications of uncertain future fossil energy resources on bioenergy use and terrestrial carbon emissions

The effect of African growth on future global energy, emissions, and regional development

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New research, May 2, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on May 2, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

A cautionary note about messages of hope: Focusing on progress in reducing carbon emissions weakens mitigation motivation

Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas

Amazon forest response to repeated droughts

Detecting significant decreasing trends of land surface soil moisture in eastern China during the past three decades (1979-2010)

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity?

Atmospheric drivers of Greenland surface melt revealed by Self Organizing Maps

A comparison of Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance from atmospheric climate models and in situ observations

The dynamics of supraglacial water storage in the Everest region, central Himalaya

The rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s in an eddy permitting ocean reanalysis (1982-2013)

Ocean chemistry, ocean warming, and emerging hypoxia: Commentary

Uncertainty partition challenges the predictability of vital details of climate change

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests (open access)

Uncertainty analysis of terrestrial net primary productivity and net biome productivity in China during 1901-2005

Changes in phenological sequences of alpine communities across a natural elevation gradient

Fruit productivity of Stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) along a climatic gradient in Chile

Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation

Boom and bust: rapid feedback responses between insect outbreak dynamics and canopy leaf area impacted by rainfall and CO2

Is it getting hot in here? Adjustment of hydraulic parameters in six boreal and temperate tree species after three years of warming

Wind and light exposure, more than elevation–related temperature, limit treeline seedling abundance on three continents

A review of severe thunderstorms in Australia

Characteristics of stratospheric warming events during Northern winter

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in Northern Tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series

Marine response to climate changes during the last five millennia in the central Mediterranean Sea

Factors Controlling Cloud Albedo in Marine Subtropical Stratocumulus Regions in Climate Models and Satellite Observations

Comparing the influence of sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity on winter surface climate

Investigating Alaskan methane and carbon dioxide fluxes using measurements from the CARVE tower (open access)

NOx lifetimes and emissions of cities and power plants in polluted background estimated by satellite observations (open access)

The distributional and nutritional impacts and mitigation potential of emission-based food taxes in the UK

Why Did Better Place Fail?: Range anxiety, interpretive flexibility, and electric vehicle promotion in Denmark and Israel

How much carbon offsetting and where? Implications of efficiency, effectiveness, and ethicality considerations for public opinion formation

Impact of climate change on U.S. building energy demand: sensitivity to spatiotemporal scales, balance point temperature, and population distribution

Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change (open access)

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