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New research – climate and mankind (October 6, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 6, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


The limits of poverty reduction in support of climate change adaptation (Nelson et al. 2016)

Abstract: The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.

Perceptions of thermal comfort in heatwave and non-heatwave conditions in Melbourne, Australia (Lam et al. 2016)

Abstract: Heatwaves can cause discomfort and illnesses due to heat stress. However, how people perceive thermal comfort and adapt to extreme heat conditions on heatwave days is uncertain. Most outdoor thermal comfort studies have been conducted under non-extreme conditions and very few during heatwaves. For those studies that encountered a heatwave, sample size tends to be small or modelling approaches were used to assess thermal comfort. It is important to understand people’s perceptions in relation to the physiological experience during extreme heat, as it would help practitioners apply the extreme heat range of thermal indices in outdoor settings. To understand people’s thermal perception and clothing behaviour during a heatwave, we combined meteorological measurements and thermal comfort surveys at two botanic gardens in Melbourne, Australia. The variations in respondents’ thermal comfort and clothing are assessed during heatwave and non-heatwave conditions, where temperatures during heatwave conditions exceeded 36°C. We observed that local visitors felt significantly hotter and wore less clothing for the same ranges of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) during heatwave than non-heatwave conditions. Thus, we suggest that thermal expectation influences changes in thermal perceptions and clothing, even over the course of several days to a week.

How do we assess vulnerability to climate change in India? A systematic review of literature (Singh et al. 2016)

Abstract: In countries like India where multiple risks interact with socio-economic differences to create and sustain vulnerability, assessing the vulnerability of people, places, and systems to climate change is a critical tool to prioritise adaptation. In India, several vulnerability assessment tools have been designed spanning multiple disciplines, by multiple actors, and at multiple scales. However, their conceptual, methodological, and disciplinary underpinnings, and resulting implications on who is identified as vulnerable, have not been interrogated. Addressing this gap, we systematically review peer-reviewed publications (n = 78) and grey literature (n = 42) to characterise how vulnerability to climate change is assessed in India. We frame our enquiry against four questions: (1) How is vulnerability conceptualised (vulnerability of whom/what, vulnerability to what), (2) who assesses vulnerability, (3) how is vulnerability assessed (methodology, scale), and (4) what are the implications of methodology on outcomes of the assessment. Our findings emphasise that methods to assess vulnerability to climate change are embedded in the disciplinary traditions, methodological approaches, and often-unstated motivations of those designing the assessment. Further, while most assessments acknowledge the importance of scalar and temporal aspects of vulnerability, we find few examples of it being integrated in methodology. Such methodological myopia potentially overlooks how social differentiation, ecological shifts, and institutional dynamics construct and perpetuate vulnerability. Finally, we synthesise the strengths and weaknesses of current vulnerability assessment methods in India and identify a predominance of research in rural landscapes with a relatively lower coverage in urban and peri-urban settlements, which are key interfaces of transitions.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes (Zipper et al. 2016)

Abstract: Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1–3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

Climate change discourse among Iranian farmers (Zobeidi et al. 2016)

Abstract: Climate change poses a severe threat to agriculture and rural populations around the world, with the potential to devastate lives and livelihoods. Farmers need to adapt their farming methods and land management decisions to reduce the negative consequences associated with climate change. Understanding farmers’ beliefs and perceptions regarding climate change is a good starting point for addressing current and future policy. As there is no one-size-fits-all strategy to promote adaptation, local adaptation-support strategies must be tailored to the particular needs and constraints of specific groups of farmers. To determine the policy implications of such strategies, a prudent and cost-effective approach is to categorize farmers into homogenous groupings using Q methodology to establish their perceptual frameworks with respect to climate change. Forty six farmers completed the Q sort procedure in this study. Data analysis identified that there are three different types of farmers’ attitudes to climate change: fatalism, support seekers, and technocrats. These findings are critical for decision makers to help them develop more appropriate adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector.

Other papers

Long-term trend analysis in climate variables and agricultural adaptation strategies to climate change in the Senegal River Basin (Djaman et al. 2016)

The Evolution of Agricultural Drought Transition Periods in the United States Corn Belt (Schiraldi & Roundy, 2016)

Do Western and Eastern Europe have the same agricultural climate response? Taking adaptive capacity into account (Vanschoenwinkel et al. 2016)

Patterns of crop cover under future climates (Porfirio et al. 2016)

Longitudinal assessment of climate vulnerability: a case study from the Canadian Arctic (Archer et al. 2016)

Effects of Rainfall on Vehicle Crashes in Six U.S. States (Black et al. 2016)

The prevalence of heat-related cardiorespiratory symptoms: the vulnerable groups identified from the National FINRISK 2007 Study (Näyhä et al. 2016)

Trade agreements, labour mobility and climate change in the Pacific Islands (Weber, 2016)

Atmospheric CO2 enrichment and drought stress modify root exudation of barley (Calvo et al. 2016)

Physical activity profile of 2014 FIFA World Cup players, with regard to different ranges of air temperature and relative humidity (Chmura et al. 2016)

Assessing climate change vulnerability in urban America: stakeholder-driven approaches (McCormick, 2016)

Spatio-temporal analyses of impacts of multiple climatic hazards in a savannah ecosystem of Ghana (Yiran et al. 2016)

Health sector preparedness for adaptation planning in India (Dasgupta et al. 2016)

The effect of climate change on rural land cover patterns in the Central United States (Lant et al. 2016)

Intensity and economic loss assessment of the snow, low-temperature and frost disasters: a case study of Beijing City (Wang et al. 2016)

A good farmer pays attention to the weather (Morton et al. 2016)

Responding to the Millennium drought: comparing domestic water cultures in three Australian cities (Lindsay et al. 2016)

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa (Guan et al. 2016)

Contract farming and the adoption of climate change coping and adaptation strategies in the northern region of Ghana (Azumah et al. 2016)

Present and future assessment of growing degree days over selected Greek areas with different climate conditions (Paparrizos & Matzarakis, 2016)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change mitigation (October 3, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 3, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change mitigation are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


Carbon balance effects of U.S. biofuel production and use (DeCicco et al. 2016)

Abstract: The use of liquid biofuels has expanded over the past decade in response to policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that promote their use for transportation. One rationale is the belief that biofuels are inherently carbon neutral, meaning that only production-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be tallied when comparing them to fossil fuels. This assumption is embedded in the lifecycle analysis (LCA) modeling used to justify and administer such policies. LCA studies have often found that crop-based biofuels such as corn ethanol and biodiesel offer at least modest net GHG reductions relative to petroleum fuels. Data over the period of RFS expansion enable empirical assessment of net CO2 emission effects. This analysis evaluates the direct carbon exchanges (both emissions and uptake) between the atmosphere and the U.S. vehicle-fuel system (motor vehicles and the physical supply chain for motor fuels) over 2005–2013. While U.S. biofuel use rose from 0.37 to 1.34 EJ/yr over this period, additional carbon uptake on cropland was enough to offset only 37 % of the biofuel-related biogenic CO2 emissions. This result falsifies the assumption of a full offset made by LCA and other GHG accounting methods that assume biofuel carbon neutrality. Once estimates from the literature for process emissions and displacement effects including land-use change are considered, the conclusion is that U.S. biofuel use to date is associated with a net increase rather than a net decrease in CO2 emissions.

Will international emissions trading help achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement? (Fujimori et al. 2016)

Abstract: Under the Paris Agreement, parties set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change. International carbon emissions trading is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here, we show the benefit of emissions trading under both NDCs and a more ambitious reduction scenario consistent with the 2 °C goal. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 75% (from 0.47% to 0.16%), as a consequence of achieving NDCs through emissions trading. Furthermore, achieving the 2 °C targets without emissions trading led to a global welfare loss of 1.4%–3.4%, depending on the burden-sharing scheme used, whereas emissions trading reduced the loss to around 1.5% (from 1.4% to 1.7%). These results indicate that emissions trading is a valuable option for the international system, enabling NDCs and more ambitious targets to be achieved in a cost-effective manner.

The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade? (Yuan et al. 2016)

Abstract: Coal power holds the king position in China’s generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China’s social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China’s developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.

Independent evaluation of point source fossil fuel CO2 emissions to better than 10% (Turnbull et al. 2016)

Abstract: Independent estimates of fossil fuel CO2 (CO2ff) emissions are key to ensuring that emission reductions and regulations are effective and provide needed transparency and trust. Point source emissions are a key target because a small number of power plants represent a large portion of total global emissions. Currently, emission rates are known only from self-reported data. Atmospheric observations have the potential to meet the need for independent evaluation, but useful results from this method have been elusive, due to challenges in distinguishing CO2ff emissions from the large and varying CO2 background and in relating atmospheric observations to emission flux rates with high accuracy. Here we use time-integrated observations of the radiocarbon content of CO2 (14CO2) to quantify the recently added CO2ff mole fraction at surface sites surrounding a point source. We demonstrate that both fast-growing plant material (grass) and CO2 collected by absorption into sodium hydroxide solution provide excellent time-integrated records of atmospheric 14CO2. These time-integrated samples allow us to evaluate emissions over a period of days to weeks with only a modest number of measurements. Applying the same time integration in an atmospheric transport model eliminates the need to resolve highly variable short-term turbulence. Together these techniques allow us to independently evaluate point source CO2ff emission rates from atmospheric observations with uncertainties of better than 10%. This uncertainty represents an improvement by a factor of 2 over current bottom-up inventory estimates and previous atmospheric observation estimates and allows reliable independent evaluation of emissions.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver (Vaughan & Cough, 2016)

Abstract: Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

Other papers

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation (Katzner et al. 2016)

Decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions: A decomposition analysis of China’s household energy consumption (Ma et al. 2016)

Public perceptions and acceptance of induced earthquakes related to energy development (McComas et al. 2016)

The design of renewable support schemes and CO2 emissions in China (Wu et al. 2016)

Public conceptions of justice in climate engineering: Evidence from secondary analysis of public deliberation (McLaren et al. 2016)

Multi-year energy balance and carbon dioxide fluxes over a residential neighbourhood in a tropical city (Roth et al. 2016)

Solar energy storage in German households: profitability, load changes and flexibility (Kaschub et al. 2016)

How wind became a four-letter word: Lessons for community engagement from a wind energy conflict in King Island, Australia (Colvin et al. 2016)

Paying the full price of steel – Perspectives on the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry (Rootzén & Johnsson, 2016)

The environmental impact of activities after life: life cycle assessment of funerals (Keijzer, 2016)

Impacts devalue the potential of large-scale terrestrial CO2 removal through biomass plantations (Boysen et al. 2016)

Measurements of methane emissions from a beef cattle feedlot using the eddy covariance technique (Prajapati & Santos, 2016)

Do national-level policies to promote low-carbon technology deployment pay off for the investor countries? (Iyer et al. 2016)

Russia’s black carbon emissions: focus on diesel sources (Kholod et al. 2016)

Place-based inter-generational communication on local climate improves adolescents’ perceptions and willingness to mitigate climate change (Hu & Chen, 2016)

A quantile regression analysis of China’s provincial CO2 emissions: Where does the difference lie? (Xu & Lin, 2016)

Concerned consumption. Global warming changing household domestication of energy (Aune et al. 2016)

Is ecological personality always consistent with low-carbon behavioral intention of urban residents? (Wei et al. 2016)

Assessing the merits of bioenergy by estimating marginal climate-change impacts (Kirschbaum, 2016)

Nuclear accident reminders and support for nuclear energy: Paradoxical effect (Selimbegović et al. 2016)

Progress, challenges and perspectives in flexible perovskite solar cells (Di Giacomo et al. 2016)

Mitigation of methane emissions in cities: how new measurements and partnerships can contribute to emissions reduction strategies (Hopkins et al. 2016)

Narratives in climate change discourse (Fløttum & Gjerstad, 2016)

Has energy conservation been an effective policy for Thailand? An input–output structural decomposition analysis from 1995 to 2010 (Supasa et al. 2016)

Is nuclear economical in comparison to renewables? (Suna & Resch, 2016)

The sower’s way: quantifying the narrowing net-energy pathways to a global energy transition (Sgouridis et al. 2016)

Testing the efficacy of voluntary urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories (Khan & Sovacool, 2016)

Nitrogen footprints: Regional realities and options to reduce nitrogen loss to the environment (Shibata et al. 2016)

Estimating fugitive methane emissions from oil sands mining using extractive core samples (Johnson et al. 2016)

Carbon intensity of electricity in ASEAN: Drivers, performance and outlook (Ang & Goh, 2016)

Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (Muratori et al. 2016)

Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO2 Storage Resource Estimates: A Review (Anderson, 2016)

Technological growth of fuel efficiency in european automobile market 1975–2015 (Hu & Chen, 2016)

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New research – hydrosphere (September 26, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 26, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on hydrosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities (Hartin et al. 2016)

Abstract: Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model’s sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector’s carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification projections and sensitivity analyses, and it is capable of emulating both current observations and large-scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.

Anthropogenic and climate-driven water depletion in Asia (Yi et al. 2016)

Abstract: Anthropogenic depletion of terrestrial water storage (TWS) can be alleviated in wet years and intensified in dry years, and this wet/dry pattern spanning seasons to years is termed climate variability. However, the anthropogenic and climate-driven changes have not been isolated in previous studies; thus, the estimated trend of changes in TWS is strongly dependent on the study period. Here we try to remove the influence of climate variability from the estimation of the anthropogenic contribution, which is an indicator of the environmental burden and important for TWS projections. Toward this end, we propose a linear relationship between the variation in water storage and precipitation. Factors related to the sensitivity of water storage to precipitation are given to correct for the climate variability, and the anthropogenic depletion of terrestrial water and groundwater in Asia is estimated to be −187 ± 38 Gt/yr and −100 ± 47 Gt/yr, respectively.

Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise? (Thompson et al. 2016)

Abstract: Ocean dynamics, land motion, and changes in Earth’s gravitational and rotational fields cause local sea level change to deviate from the rate of global mean sea level rise. Here, we use observations and simulations of spatial structure in sea level change to estimate the likelihood that these processes cause sea level trends in the longest and highest-quality tide gauge records to be systematically biased relative to the true global mean rate. The analyzed records have an average 20th century rate of approximately 1.6 mm/yr, but based on the locations of these gauges, we show the simple average underestimates the 20th century global mean rate by 0.1  ±  0.2 mm/yr. Given the distribution of potential sampling biases, we find < 1% probability that observed trends from the longest and highest-quality TG records are consistent with global mean rates less than 1.4 mm/yr.

Development of a 0.5 deg global monthly raining day product from 1901-2010 (Stillman & Zeng, 2016)

Abstract: While several long-term global datasets of monthly precipitation amount (P) are widely available, only the Climate Research Unit (CRU) provides long-term global monthly raining day number (N) data (i.e., daily precipitation frequency in a month), with P/N representing the daily precipitation intensity. However, because CRU N is based on a limited number of gauges, it is found to perform poorly over data sparse regions. By combining the CRU method with a short-term gauge-satellite merged global daily precipitation dataset (CMORPH) and a global long-term monthly precipitation dataset (GPCC) with far more gauges than used in CRU, a new 0.5 deg global N dataset from 1901-2010 is developed, which differs significantly from CRU N. Compared with three independent regional daily precipitation products over U.S., China, and South America based on much denser gauge networks than used in CRU, the new product shows significant improvement over CRU N.

Detection and delineation of glacial lakes and identification of potentially dangerous lakes of Dhauliganga basin in the Himalaya by remote sensing techniques (Jha & Khare, 2016)

Abstract: Glaciers are retreating and thinning in the high altitude of the Himalayas due to global warming, causing into formation of numerous glacial lakes. It is necessary to monitor these glacial lakes consistently to save properties and lives downstream from probable disastrous glacial lake outburst flood. In this study, image processing software ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine have been used to analyse multispectral image obtained by Earth resource satellite Landsat for delineating the glacial lakes with the help of image enhancement technique like NDWI. Landsat data since 1972 through 2013 have been used and maximum seven glacial lakes (L1–L7) have been detected and delineated in Dhauliganga catchment, they are situated above 4000 masl. The Glacial Lake L2 (Lat 30°26′45″E and Long 80°23′16″N) is the largest whose surface area was 132,300 m2 in Sept 2009, and L6 (Lat 30°23′27″E and Long 80°31′52″N) is highly unstable with variation rate −55 to +145 % with increasing trend. Additionally, glacial lakes L2 (Lat 30°26′45″E and Long 80°23′16″N) and L6 (Lat 30°23′27″E and Long 80°31′52″N) have been identified as potentially hazardous. These lakes may probably burst; as a result, huge reserve of water and debris may be released all on a sudden. This may transform into hazardous flash flood in downstream causing loss of lives, as well as the destruction of houses, bridges, fields, forests, hydropower stations, roads, etc. It is to note that Dhauliganga river considered in this study is a tributary of Kaliganga river, and should not be confused with its namesake the Dhauliganga river, which is a tributary of Alaknanda river.

Other papers

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century (Pagán et al. 2016)

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models (Badr et al. 2016)

Evidencing decadal and interdecadal hydroclimatic variability over the Central Andes (Segura et al. 2016)

The uncertainties and causes of the recent changes in global evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2010 (Dong & Dai, 2016)

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China (Sun et al. 2016)

Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport (Wagena et al. 2016)

Rainfall in Qatar: Is it changing? (Mamoon & Rahman, 2016)

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Products and Services at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) (Liu et al. 2016)

A multi-satellite climatology of clouds, radiation and precipitation in southern West Africa and comparison to climate models (Hill et al. 2016)

Detection, Attribution and Projection of Regional Rainfall Changes on (Multi-) Decadal Time Scales: A Focus on Southeastern South America (Zhang et al. 2016)

Which weather systems are projected to cause future changes in mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 simulations? (Utsumi et al. 2016)

Out-phased decadal precipitation regime shift in China and the United States (Yang & Fu, 2016)

Forcing of recent decadal variability in the Equatorial and North Indian Ocean (Thompson et al. 2016)

Proxy-based reconstruction of surface water acidification and carbonate saturation of the Levant Sea during the Anthropocene (Bialik & Sisma-Ventura, 2016)

Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: conceptual model and GCM simulations (Byrne & O’Gorman, 2016)

Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012 (Frazier & Giambelluca, 2016)

Mapping of West Siberian taiga wetland complexes using Landsat imagery: implications for methane emissions (Terentieva et al. 2016)

Wind driven mixing at intermediate depths in an ice-free Arctic Ocean (Lincoln et al. 2016)

Seasonal Evolution of Supraglacial Lakes on an East Antarctic Outlet Glacier (Langley et al. 2016)

Temperature-salinity structure of the North Atlantic circulation and associated heat and freshwater transports (Xu et al. 2016)

Eustatic and Relative Sea Level Changes (Rovere et al. 2016)

A mechanism for the response of the zonally asymmetric subtropical hydrologic cycle to global warming (Levine & Boos, 2016)

Quantifying the contribution of glacier-melt water in the expansion of the largest lake in Tibet (Tong et al. 2016)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – atmospheric composition (September 19, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 19, 2016

Some of the latest papers on atmospheric composition (mainly on greenhouse gases and aerosols) are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


A global catalogue of large SO2 sources and emissions derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (Fioletov et al. 2016)

Abstract: Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor processed with the new principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm were used to detect large point emission sources or clusters of sources. The total of 491 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 30 kt yr−1 to more than 4000 kt yr−1 of SO2 per year have been identified and grouped by country and by primary source origin: volcanoes (76 sources); power plants (297); smelters (53); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (65). The sources were identified using different methods, including through OMI measurements themselves applied to a new emission detection algorithm, and their evolution during the 2005–2014 period was traced by estimating annual emissions from each source. For volcanic sources, the study focused on continuous degassing, and emissions from explosive eruptions were excluded. Emissions from degassing volcanic sources were measured, many for the first time, and collectively they account for about 30 % of total SO2 emissions estimated from OMI measurements, but that fraction has increased in recent years given that cumulative global emissions from power plants and smelters are declining while emissions from oil and gas industry remained nearly constant. Anthropogenic emissions from the USA declined by 80 % over the 2005–2014 period as did emissions from western and central Europe, whereas emissions from India nearly doubled, and emissions from other large SO2-emitting regions (South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East) remained fairly constant. In total, OMI-based estimates account for about a half of total reported anthropogenic SO2 emissions; the remaining half is likely related to sources emitting less than 30 kt yr−1 and not detected by OMI.

Re-evaluating the 1940s CO2 plateau (Bastos et al. 2016)

Abstract: The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

Trace gases in the atmosphere over Russian cities (Elansky et al. 2016)

Abstract: Multiyear observational data (obtained at the mobile railroad laboratory in the course of the 1995–2010 TROICA experiments) on the composition and state of the atmosphere were used to study the features of both spatial and temporal variations in the contents of trace gases in the surface air layer over Russian cities. The obtained characteristics of urban air noticeably differ from those obtained at stationary stations. The emission fluxes of NOx, CO, and CH4 and their integral emissions from large cities have been estimated on the basis of observational data obtained at the mobile laboratory. The values of these emission fluxes reflect the state of urban infrastructure. The integral urban emissions of CO depend on the city size and vary from 50 Gg yr−1 for Yaroslavl to 130 Gg yr−1 for Yekaterinburg. For most cities, they agree with the EDGAR v4.2 data within the limits of experimental error. The agreement is worse for the emissions of NOx. The EDGAR v4.2 data on the emissions of CH4 seem to be overestimated..

Potential sea salt aerosol sources from frost flowers in the pan-Arctic region (Xu et al. 2016)

Abstract: In order to better represent observed wintertime aerosol mass and number concentrations in the pan-Arctic (60°N-90°N) region, we implemented an observationally-based parameterization for estimating sea salt production from frost flowers in the Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.2.1). In this work, we evaluate the potential influence of this sea salt source on the pan-Arctic climate. Results show that frost flower salt emissions increase the modeled surface sea salt aerosol mass concentration by roughly 200% at Barrow and 100% at Alert and accumulation-mode number concentration by about a factor of 2 at Barrow and more than a factor of 10 at Alert in the winter months when new sea ice and frost flowers are present. The magnitude of sea salt aerosol mass and number concentrations at the surface in Barrow during winter simulated by the model configuration that includes this parameterization agrees better with observations by 48% and 12%, respectively, than the standard CESM simulation without a frost-flower salt particle source. At Alert, the simulation with this parameterization overestimates observed sea salt aerosol mass concentration by 150% during winter in contrast to the underestimation of 63% in the simulation without this frost flower source, while it produces particle number concentration about 14% closer to observation than the standard CESM simulation. However, because the CESM version used here underestimates transported sulfate in winter, the reference accumulation-mode number concentrations at Alert are also underestimated. Adding these frost flower salt particle emissions increases sea salt aerosol optical depth by 10% in the pan-Arctic region and results in a small cooling at the surface. The increase in salt aerosol mass concentrations of a factor of 8 provides nearly two times the cloud condensation nuclei concentration at supersaturation of 0.1%, as well as 10% increases in cloud droplet number and 40% increases in liquid water content near coastal regions adjacent to continents. These cloud changes reduce longwave cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere by 3% and cause a small surface warming, increasing the downward longwave flux at the surface by 1.8 W m−2 in the pan-Arctic under the present-day climate. This regional average longwave warming due to the presence of clouds attributed to frost flower sea salts is roughly half of previous observed surface longwave fluxes and cloud-forcing estimates reported in Alaska, implying that the longwave enhancement due to frost flower salts may be comparable to those estimated for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Since the potential frost flower area is parameterized as the maximum possible region on which frost flowers grow for the modeled atmospheric temperature and sea ice conditions and the model underestimates the number of accumulation-mode particles from mid-latitude anthropogenic sources transported in winter, the calculated aerosol indirect effect of frost flower sea salts in this work can be regarded as an upper bound.

Early detection of volcanic hazard by lidar measurement of carbon dioxide (Fiorani et al. 2016)

Abstract: Volcanic gases give information on magmatic processes. In particular, anomalous releases of carbon dioxide precede volcanic eruptions. Up to now, this gas has been measured in volcanic plumes with conventional measurements that imply the severe risks of local sampling and can last many hours. For these reasons and for the great advantages of laser sensing, the thorough development of volcanic lidars has been undertaken at ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development). In fact, lidar profiling allows one to scan remotely volcanic plumes in a fast and continuous way, and with high spatial and temporal resolution. A differential absorption lidar instrument will be presented in this paper: BILLI (BrIdge voLcanic LIdar). It is based on injection-seeded Nd:YAG laser, double-grating dye laser, difference frequency mixing and optical parametric amplifier. BILLI is funded by the ERC (European Research Council) project BRIDGE (BRIDging the gap between Gas Emissions and geophysical observations at active volcanos). It scanned the gas emitted by Pozzuoli Solfatara (Naples, Italy) and Stromboli Volcano (Sicily, Italy) during field campaigns carried out from October 13 to 17, 2014, and from June 24 to 29, 2015, respectively. Carbon dioxide concentration maps were retrieved remotely in few minutes in the crater areas. To our knowledge, it is the first time that carbon dioxide in a volcanic plume is retrieved by lidar. This result represents the first direct measurement of this kind ever performed on active volcanos and shows the high potential of laser remote sensing in early detection of volcanic hazard.

Other papers

Validation and update of OMI Total Column Water Vapor product (Wang et al. 2016)

Long-term visibility variation in Athens (1931–2013): a proxy for local and regional atmospheric aerosol loads (Founda et al. 2016)

Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under climate change (Liu et al. 2016)

Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States (Zhang et al. 2016)

Radon as a tracer of atmospheric influences on traffic-related air pollution in a small inland city (Williams et al. 2016)

Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions (Fröhlich-Nowoisky et al. 2016)

The importance of non-fossil sources in carbonaceous aerosols in a megacity of central China during the 2013 winter haze episode: A source apportionment constrained by radiocarbon and organic tracers (Liu et al. 2016)

Estimating Minimum Detection Times for Satellite Remote Sensing of Trends in Mean and Extreme Precipitable Water Vapor (Roman et al. 2016)

A comprehensive estimate for loss of atmospheric carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) to the ocean (Butler et al. 2016)

Significant increase of summertime ozone at Mount Tai in Central Eastern China (Sun et al. 2016)

Snow Covered Soils Produce N2O that is Lost from Forested Catchments (Enanga et al. 2016)

Spatial and temporal variability of urban fluxes of methane, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide above London, UK (Helfter et al. 2016)

Climatic variability of the column ozone over the Iranian plateau (Mousavi et al. 2016)

Long-term variation of stratospheric aerosols observed with lidars over Tsukuba, Japan from 1982 and Lauder, New Zealand from 1992 to 2015 (Sakai et al. 2016)

The natural oscillations in stratospheric ozone observed by the GROMOS microwave radiometer at the NDACC station Bern (Moreira et al. 2016)

A biogenic CO2 flux adjustment scheme for the mitigation of large-scale biases in global atmospheric CO2 analyses and forecasts (Agustí-Panareda et al. 2016)

Relationship of ground-level ozone with synoptic weather conditions in Chicago (Jing et al. 2016)

Global detection of absorbing aerosols over the ocean in the red and near infrared spectral region (Waquet et al. 2016)

Atmospheric benzene observations from oil and gas production in the Denver Julesburg basin in July and August 2014 (Halliday et al. 2016)

Carbon monoxide climatology derived from the trajectory mapping of global MOZAIC-IAGOS data (Osman et al. 2016)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on mankind (September 2, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 2, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City (Botzen et al. 2016)

Abstract: Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000 residents in flood-prone areas in New York City. Democrats’ perception of their probability of suffering flood damage is significantly higher than Republicans’ and they are also more likely to invest in individual flood protection measures. However, 50% more Democrats than Republicans in our sample expect to receive federal disaster relief after a major flood. These results highlight the importance of taking into account value-based considerations in designing disaster risk management policies.

Changes in wheat potential productivity and drought severity in Southwest China (Wang et al. 2016)

Abstract: Wheat production in Southwest China (SWC) plays a vital role in guaranteeing local grain security, but it is threatened by increasingly frequent seasonal drought in recent years. In spite of the importance, the impact of past climate change on wheat potential productivity and drought severity has not been properly addressed. In this study, we employed a relatively simple resource use efficiency model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of the potential productivity (PP) and rainfed productivity (RP) of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Southwest China (SWC) from 1962 to 2010. A wheat drought severity index was defined as the relative difference between PP and RP, i.e., (PP-RP)/PP, to evaluate the changing frequency and severity of drought under warming SWC. Across the entire region from 1962 to 2010, the negative impact of decreasing sunshine hours (0.06 h day−1 per decade, p < 0.05) on PP was offset by the increase in average temperature of wheat growing season (0.22 °C per decade, p < 0.01). PP increased by 283 kg ha−1 per decade (p < 0.01), while RP did not show significant trend due to increased water stress. The gap between PP and RP has increased by 26 kg ha−1 per decade (p < 0.01). Moderate and severe drought mostly occurred in central and southern SWC. The percentage of stations experienced moderate or severe drought increased by 2.0 % (p < 0.05) per decade, and reached 52 % in recent decade. Our results, together with the uneven distribution of rainfall, indicate great potential for irrigation development to harvest water and increase wheat yield under the warming climate in SWC.

Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change (Zaveri et al. 2016)

Abstract: India is one of the world’s largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India’s agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India’s food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India’s agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.

Exploring the effect of heat on stated intentions to move (Zander et al. 2016)

Abstract: Climate change is leading to more frequent and longer heat waves and in many places, such as large parts of Australia, to an increase in average temperatures. Rising temperatures can reduce well-being and influence decisions about residency and mobility among people. This study assesses the intentions of a nationally representative sample of working-age people living in Australia to move to somewhere cooler than where they currently live as a response to increasing heat. We found that 11 % of respondents intend to move away from their current place or residence because of increasing temperatures. We also found that men are more likely to intend to move, as are those who feel often stressed by heat, those with a generally high level of mobility, and those who are worried about climate change. Age does not explain movement intentions although it has been found that young people are generally the most mobile, and then those in retirement age again. This means that people formerly expected to be rather immobile might be more likely to intend to move when they feel the local climate has become intolerably hot. Planning for infrastructure and service provision, which has a long lead time, will therefore need adjustment to account for the likely effects of climate change on mobility decisions and settlement patterns.

Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes (Melia et al. 2016)

Abstract: The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic-transit shipping. By mid-century for standard Open Water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice – ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions have a larger impact by late-century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial inter-annual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late-century.

Other papers

Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies (Dueri et al. 2016)

Effects of urban vegetation on mitigating exposure of vulnerable populations to excessive heat in Cleveland, Ohio (Declet-Barreto et al. 2016)

Influence of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range on incidence of cardiac arrhythmias (Kim & Kim, 2016)

Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province (Zhao et al. 2016)

Impacts of aviation fuel sulfur content on climate and human health (Kapadia et al. 2016)

Impact assessment of climate change and later-maturing cultivars on winter wheat growth and soil water deficit on the Loess Plateau of China (Ding et al. 2016)

Will commercial fishing be a safe occupation in future? a framework to quantify future fishing risks due to climate change scenarios (Rezaee et al. 2016)

The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region (Cunha & Richter, 2016)

The ‘Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities (Warrick et al. 2016)

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth (Zhao et al. 2016)

Whale watch or no watch: the Australian whale watching tourism industry and climate change (Meynecke et al. 2016)

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions (Koubi et al. 2016)

An overview of the opportunities and challenges of promoting climate change adaptation at the local level: a case study from a community adaptation planning in Nepal (Regmi et al. 2016)

Heat exposure on farmers in northeast Ghana (Frimpong et al. 2016)

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble (Silva et al. 2016)

Assessment of atmospheric moisture harvesting by direct cooling (Gido et al. 2016)

Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios (Eitelberg et al. 2016)

Adaptation to Climate Change: Commitment and Timing Issues (Breton & Sbragia, 2016)

Markets and climate are driving rapid change in farming practices in Savannah West Africa (Ouédraogo et al. 2016)

Farmer-level adaptation to climate change and agricultural drought: empirical evidences from the Barind region of Bangladesh (Hossain et al. 2016)

Climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over Los Angeles as a response to California drought (Vahmani & Ban-Weiss, 2016)

Increased climate risk in Brazilian double cropping agriculture systems: Implications for land use in Northern Brazil (Pires et al. 2016)

The influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index on hospital admissions through diseases of the circulatory system in Lisbon, Portugal (Almendra et al. 2016)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change mitigation (September 1, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 1, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change mitigation are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


Climate change and individual duties (Fragnière, 2016)

Abstract: Tackling climate change has often been considered the responsibility of national governments. But do individuals also have a duty to act in the face of this problem? In particular, do they have a duty to adopt a greener lifestyle or to press their government to act? This review critically examines the arguments provided for and against such duties in the relevant philosophic literature. It first discusses the problem of causal inefficacy—namely the fact that individual greenhouse gas emissions appear to make no difference to the harmful consequences of climate change—and whether it clears individuals from any moral obligations related to climate change. Then, it considers various other arguments for the existence of such duties, including integrity, fairness, universalizability, or virtue. Finally, it assesses the existence of a duty to promote collective action through active citizenship. The conclusion emphasizes that most writers agree on the fact that individuals have at least some duties to take action against climate change, but that disagreement remains about the exact nature and, above all, the extent of these duties.

Renewable and nuclear electricity: Comparison of environmental impacts (McCombie & Jefferson, 2016)

Abstract: Given the widely acknowledged negative impacts of fossil fuels, both on human health and on potential climate change, it is of interest to compare the impacts of low carbon alternative energy sources such as nuclear energy, hydropower, solar, wind and biomass. In this paper, we review the literature in order to summarise the impacts of the different technologies in terms of their materials and energy requirements, their emissions during operation, their health effects during operation, the accident risks, and the associated waste streams. We follow up these comparisons with some more anecdotal evidence on selected impacts that are either particularly topical or are important but less commonly addressed. These include impacts of wind turbines on persons and on bird life, the underestimated problems with biomass, and concerns about biodiversity reduction. Finally we address the public attitudes towards both renewable energy technologies and to nuclear power. The conclusion is drawn that energy policies of many countries are perhaps more strongly influenced by public and political perceptions of available technologies than they are by rational assessment of the actual benefits and drawbacks. Policy recommendations follow from this conclusion.

Consideration of Land Use Change-Induced Surface Albedo Effects in Life-Cycle Analysis of Biofuels (Cai et al. 2016)

Abstract: Land use change (LUC)-induced surface albedo effects for expansive biofuel production need to be quantified for improved understanding of biofuel climate impacts. We addressed this emerging issue for expansive biofuel production in the United States (U.S.) and compared the albedo effects with greenhouse gas emissions highlighted by traditional life-cycle analysis of biofuels. We used improved spatial representation of albedo effects in our analysis by obtaining over 1.4 million albedo observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer flown on NASA satellites over a thousand counties representative of six Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in the U.S. We utilized high-spatial-resolution, crop-specific cropland cover data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and paired the data with the albedo data to enable consideration of various LUC scenarios. We simulated the radiative effects of LUC-induced albedo changes for seven types of crop covers using the Monte Carlo Aerosol, Cloud and Radiation model, which employs an advanced radiative transfer mechanism coupled with spatially and temporally resolved meteorological and aerosol conditions. These simulations estimated the net radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere as a result of the LUC-induced albedo changes, which enabled quantification of the albedo effects on the basis of radiative forcing defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for CO2 and other greenhouse gases effects. Finally, we quantified the LUC-induced albedo effects for production of ethanol from corn, miscanthus, and switchgrass in different AEZs of the U.S. Results show that the weighted national average albedo effect is a small cooling effect of −1.8 g CO2 equivalent (CO2e) for a mega-Joule (MJ) of corn ethanol, a relatively stronger warming effect of 12.1 g CO2e per MJ of switchgrass ethanol, and a small warming effect of 2.7 g CO2e per MJ of miscanthus ethanol. Significant variations in albedo-induced effects are found among different land conversions for the same biofuel, and among different AEZ regions for the same land conversion and biofuel. This spatial heterogeneity, owing to non-linear albedo dynamics and radiation processes, suggests highly variable LUC-induced albedo effects depending on geographical locations and vegetation. These findings provide new insights on potential climate effects by producing biofuels through considering biogeophysical as well as biogeochemical effects of biofuel production and use in the U.S.

Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program (Shearer et al. 2016)

Abstract: Nearly 17% of people in an international survey said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric program (SLAP) to be true or partly true. SLAP is commonly referred to as ‘chemtrails’ or ‘covert geoengineering’, and has led to a number of websites purported to show evidence of widespread chemical spraying linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment. To address these claims, we surveyed two groups of experts—atmospheric chemists with expertize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution—to scientifically evaluate for the first time the claims of SLAP theorists. Results show that 76 of the 77 scientists (98.7%) that took part in this study said they had not encountered evidence of a SLAP, and that the data cited as evidence could be explained through other factors, including well-understood physics and chemistry associated with aircraft contrails and atmospheric aerosols. Our goal is not to sway those already convinced that there is a secret, large-scale spraying program—who often reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories—but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.

The Conditional Nature of the Local Warming Effect (Druckman & Shafranek, 2016)

Abstract: The local warming effect occurs when perceived deviations in the day’s temperature affect individuals’ global warming beliefs. When people perceive the day to be warmer than usual, they tend to overestimate the number of warm days throughout the year, and to report increased belief in and worry about global warming. For many, this is normatively concerning because a single day’s perceived temperature fluctuation is not representative of longer-term, large-scale climate patterns. It thus makes for a poor basis for global warming judgments. Recent work shows that the local warming effect might disappear when people receive a reminder to think about weather patterns over the past year (i.e., a correction). This paper employs a survey experiment that extends past research by exploring the generalizability, conditionality, and durability of the corrective information. It identifies the conditions under which a local warming effect is more or less likely to occur.

Other papers

The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture (Kanter et al. 2016)

Methane emissions measurements of natural gas components using a utility terrain vehicle and portable methane quantification system (Johnson & Heltzel, 2016)

Impacts of current and projected oil palm plantation expansion on air quality over Southeast Asia (Silva et al. 2016)

Climate change education and knowledge among Nigerian university graduates (Ayanlade & Jegede, 2016)

Potential emission savings from refrigeration and air conditioning systems by using low GWP refrigerants (Beshr et al. 2016)

The world’s biggest gamble (Rockström et al. 2016)

Statements about climate researchers’ carbon footprints affect their credibility and the impact of their advice (Attari et al. 2016)

Should environmentalists be concerned about materialism? An analysis of attitudes, behaviours and greenhouse gas emissions (Andersson & Nässén, 2016)

Austria’s wind energy potential – A participatory modeling approach to assess socio-political and market acceptance (Höltinger et al. 2016)

Time-varying analysis of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth nexus: Statistical experience in next 11 countries (Shahbaz et al. 2016)

China’s wind electricity and cost of carbon mitigation are more expensive than anticipated (Lam et al. 2016)

New Tools for Comparing Beliefs about the Timing of Recurrent Events with Climate Time Series Datasets (Stiller-Reeve et al. 2016)

Most Americans Want to Learn More about Climate Change (Perkins et al. 2016)

Atmosfear: Communicating the Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Weather (Janković & Schultz, 2016)

Rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies: social barriers and social implications (Buck, 2016)

Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model (Zhang et al. 2016)

Low carbon cities: is ambitious action affordable? (Sudmant et al. 2016)

Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030 (McNeil et al. 2016)

Wind, hydro or mixed renewable energy source: Preference for electricity products when the share of renewable energy increases (Yang et al. 2016)

Reducing beef consumption might not reduce emissions: response to Phalan et al. (2016) (Barioni et al. 2016)

Universal access to electricity in Burkina Faso: scaling-up renewable energy technologies (Moner-Girona et al. 2016)

A New Model for the Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Resources (Michaelides, 2016)

A method to estimate climate-critical construction materials applied to seaport protection (Becker et al. 2016)

Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change (van Vliet et al. 2016)

Technoeconomic assessment of beetle kill biomass co-firing in existing coal fired power plants in the Western United States (Beagle & Belmont, 2016)

Statistical analysis of compliance violations for natural gas wells in Pennsylvania (Abualfaraj et al. 2016)

A new way of carbon accounting emphasises the crucial role of sustainable timber use for successful carbon mitigation strategies (Härtl et al. 2016)

Climate consequences of low-carbon fuels: The United States Renewable Fuel Standard (Hill et al. 2016)

A spatially explicit assessment of the wind energy potential in response to an increased distance between wind turbines and settlements in Germany (Masurowski et al. 2016)

The scientific veneer of IPCC visuals (McMahon et al. 2016)

Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario (Tilmes et al. 2016)

Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050 (Zhang et al. 2016)

Increasing recycling through displaying feedback and social comparative feedback (Mickaël & Sébastien, 2016)

How geographic distance and political ideology interact to influence public perception of unconventional oil/natural gas development (Clarke et al. 2016)

Assessing greenhouse gas emissions of milk production: which parameters are essential? (Wolf et al. 2016)

Do effects of theoretical training and rewards for energy-efficient behavior persist over time and interact? A natural field experiment on eco-driving in a company fleet (Schall et al. 2016)

Evaluation of usage and fuel savings of solar ovens in Nicaragua (Bauer, 2016)

Transport demand, harmful emissions, environment and health co-benefits in China (He & Qiu, 2016)

Key challenges to expanding renewable energy (Stram, 2016)

Economics of nuclear and renewables (Khatib & Difiglio, 2016)

Nuclear power: Status report and future prospects (Budnitz, 2016)

Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects (Kreidenweis et al. 2016)

Supplementing Domestic Mitigation and Adaptation with Emissions Reduction Abroad to Face Climate Change (Ayong Le Kama & Pommeret, 2016)

Re-framing the climate change debate in the livestock sector: mitigation and adaptation options (Rivera-Ferre et al. 2016)

Readily implementable techniques can cut annual CO2 emissions from the production of concrete by over 20% (Miller, Horvath & Monteiro, 2016)

Risk, Liability, and Economic Issues with Long-Term CO2 Storage—A Review (Anderson, 2016)

Global low-carbon transition and China’s response strategies (He, 2016)

Realizing potential savings of energy and emissions from efficient household appliances in India (Parikh & Parikh, 2016)

Coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in China during 2015–2020 (Yuan et al. 2016)

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Climate related papers in Boreal Environmental Research

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on August 27, 2016

All climate related papers in journal Boreal Environmental Research between years 1996 and 2012 are listed below.

Likely responses to climate change of fish associations in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin: concepts, methods and findings (Regier et al. 1996)
Climate change and water resources in Finland (Vehviläinen & Huttunen, 1997)
Effects of climatic change on hydrological patterns of a forested catchment: a physically based modeling approach (Lepistö & Kivinen, 1997)
Impacts of climatic change on agricultural nutrient losses in Finland (Kallio et al. 1997)
Modelling the effects of climate change on lake eutrophication (Frisk et al. 1997)
Temperature habitats for freshwater fishes in a warming climate (Lappalainen & Lehtonen, 1997)
Possible effects of climate warming on the timing of spawning, juvenile abundance and catches of pikeperch, Stizostedion lucioperca (L.) (Lappalainen et al. 1997)
The Baltic Sea ice season in changing climate (Haapala & Leppäranta, 1997)
Uncertainties of climatic change impacts in Finnish watersheds: a Bayesian network analysis of expert knowledge (Kuikka & Varis, 1997)
Modelling the effects of climate change, acidic deposition and forest harvesting on the biogeochemistry of a boreal forested catchment in Finland (Forsius et al. 1997)
Climate change and river runoff in Scandinavia, approaches and challenges (Gottschalk & Krasovskaia, 1997)
Variability of climatic and ice conditions in the Bohai Sea, China (Zhang et al. 1997)
Modelling the effect of climate change on nutrient loading, temperature regime and algal biomass in the Gulf of Finland (Inkala et al. 1997)
The influence of Kola Peninsula, continental European and marine sources on the number concentrations and scattering coefficients of the atmospheric aerosol in Finnish Lapland (Virkkula et al. 1997)
The effects of climate change on the temperature conditions of lakes (Elo et al. 1998)
Mean long-term surface energy balance components in Finland during the summertime (Venäläinen et al. 1998)
On the influence of peatland draining on local climate (Venäläinen et al. 1999)
Predicting variations in methane emissions from boreal peatlands through regression models (Kettunen et al. 2000)
Annual variability of nitrogen concentrations and export from forested catchments: A consequence of climatic variability, sampling strategies or human interference? (Andersson & Lepistö, 2000)
Biogenic aerosol formation in the boreal forest (Kulmala et al. 2000)
Characteristics of the atmospheric particle formation events observed at a borel forest site in southern Finland (Mäkelä et al. 2000)
Characterization of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations at forest sites in southern and northern Finland using back trajectories (Kulmala et al. 2000)
Aerosol physico-chemical characteristics over a boreal forest determined by volatility analysis (O’Dowd et al. 2000)
Using a cloud condensation nuclei counter to study CCN properties and concentrations (Aalto & Kulmala, 2000)
Aerosol dynamical model MULTIMONO (Pirjola & Kulmala, 2000)
Microbial activity of boreal forest soil in a cold climate (Kähkönen et al. 2001)
Parametrization of a biochemical CO2 exchange model for birch (Betula pendula Roth.) (Aalto & Juurola, 2001)
Eddy covariance fluxes over a boreal Scots pine forest (Markkanen et al. 2001)
Trends in sea level variability in the Baltic Sea (Johansson et al. 2001)
Environmental conditions and the development of Planktonema lauterbornii Schmidle in phytoplankton of Karhijärvi, a lake in SW Finland (Nõges & Viirret, 2001)
Evapotranspiration 1961–1990 in Finland as function of meteorological and land-type factors (Solantie & Joukola, 2001)
Growth indices of North European Scots pine record the seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (Lindholm et al. 2001)
Modeling wind-driven circulation in Lake Ladoga (Beletsky, 2001)
Geochemical expressions of late- and post-glacial land–sea interactions in the southern Baltic Sea (Müller, 2002)
Has the project BALTEX so far met its original objectives? (Raschke et al. 2002)
The development of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model RCAO (Döscher et al. 2002)
The BALTEX regional reanalysis project (Fortelius et al. 2002)
A numerical study using the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the PIDCAP period (Lorant et al. 2002)
Validation of HIRLAM boundary-layer structures over the Baltic Sea (Pirazzini et al. 2002)
Cluster analysis results of regional climate model simulations in the PIDCAP period (Kücken et al. 2002)
Large-Eddy-Simulation of an off-ice airflow during BASIS (Etling et al. 2002)
Marine boundary-layer height estimated from the HIRLAM model (Gryning & Batchvarova, 2002)
Cloud observations and modeling within the European BALTEX Cloud Liquid Water Network (Crewell et al. 2002)
The satellite derived surface radiation budget for BALTEX (Hollmann & Gratzki, 2002)
BALTEX weather radar-based precipitation products and their accuracies (Koistinen & Michelson, 2002)
Retrieval of the spatial distribution of liquid water path from combined ground-based and satellite observations for atmospheric model evaluation (Feijt et al. 2002)
Frequency of circulation patterns and air temperature variations in Europe (Sepp & Jaagus, 2002)
Circulation weather types and their influence on temperature and precipitation in Estonia (Post et al. 2002)
Atmospheric precipitable water in Estonia, 1990–2001 (Okulov et al. 2002)
Selection of representative stations by means of a cluster analysis for the BAMAR region in the PIDCAP period (Oesterle, 2002)
BALTEX water and energy budgets in the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II (Roads et al. 2002)
Circulation of the Baltic Sea and its connection to the Pan-Arctic region — a large scale and high-resolution modeling approach (Maslowski & Walczowski, 2002)
Simulated water and heat cycles of the Baltic Sea using a 3D coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model (Meier & Döscher, 2002)
The fragile climatological niche of the Baltic Sea (Stipa & Vepsäläinen, 2002)
Surface radiant and energy flux densities inferred from satellite data for the BALTEX watershed (Berger, 2002)
Rain observations with a vertically looking Micro Rain Radar (MRR) (Peters et al. 2002)
The BALTIMOS (BALTEX Integrated Model System) field experiments: A comprehensive atmospheric boundary layer data set for model validation over the open and ice-covered Baltic Sea (Brümmer et al. 2002)
Area averaging of land surface–atmosphere fluxes in NOPEX: challenges, results and perspectives (Gryning et al. 2002)
Inter-annual variability of Baltic Sea water balance components and sea level (Malinin et al. 2002)
Water, heat and salt exchange between the deep basins of the Baltic Sea (Lehmann & Hinrichsen, 2002)
Energy and water balance of the Baltic Sea derived from merchant ship observations (Lindau, 2002)
Precipitation fields over the Baltic Sea derived from ship rain gauge measurements on merchant ships (Clemens & Bumke, 2002)
The snow cover characteristics of northern Eurasia and their relationship to climatic parameters (Kitaev et al. 2002)
Long-term changes of the river runoff in Latvia (Klavins et al. 2002)
Snow water equivalent variability and forecast in Lithuania (Rimkus & Stankunavichius, 2002)
Relationship between atmospheric circulation indices and climate variability in Estonia (Tomingas, 2002)
Small-scale variability of the wind field over a typical Scandinavian lake (Venäläinen et al. 2003)
Primary particulate matter emissions and the Finnish climate strategy (Karvosenoja & Johansson, 2003)
Droughts and rainfall in south-eastern Finland since AD 874, inferred from Scots pine ring-widths (Helama & Lindholm, 2003)
Estimation of different forest-related contributions to the radiative balance using observations in southern Finland (Kurtén et al. 2003)
Long-term measurements of surface fluxes above a Scots pine forest in Hyytiälä, southern Finland, 1996–2001 (Suni et al. 2003)
Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station — characterization of aerosol radiative parameters (Jennings et al. 2003)
Field measurements of atmosphere–biosphere interactions in a Danish beech forest (Pilegaard et al. 2003)
Atmospheric trace gas and aerosol particle concentration measurements in Eastern Lapland, Finland 1992–2001 (Ruuskanen et al. 2003)
A decade of trace gas measurements using DOAS in Finnish Lapland (Virkkula et al. 2003)
Overview of the atmospheric research activities and results at Pallas GAW station (Hatakka et al. 2003)
Influence of air mass source sector on variations in CO2 mixing ratio at a boreal site in northern Finland (Aalto et al. 2003)
Comparison of new particle formation events at two locations in northern Finland (Komppula et al. 2003)
On the concept of condensation sink diameter (Lehtinen et al. 2003)
A cloud microphysics model including trace gas condensation and sulfate chemistry (Kokkola et al. 2003)
Ozone flux measurements over a Scots pine forest using eddy covariance method: performance evaluation and comparison with flux-profile method (Keronen et al. 2003)
Measuring shoot-level NOx flux in field conditions: the role of blank chambers (Raivonen et al. 2003)
Aerosols in boreal forest: wintertime relations between formation events and bio-geo-chemical activity (Kulmala et al. 2004)
Meteorological evaluation of a severe air pollution episode in Helsinki on 27–29 December 1995 (Pohjola et al. 2004)
FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century (Carter et al. 2004)
Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland (Kaivo-oja et al. 2004)
Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century (Jylhä et al. 2004)
Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast (Johansson et al. 2004)
Trends and scenarios of ground-level ozone concentrations in Finland (Laurila et al. 2004)
Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century (Syri et al. 2004)
Soil CO2 efflux from a podzolic forest soil before and after forest clear-cutting and site preparation (Pumpanen et al. 2004)
Hydraulic aspects of environmental flood management in boreal conditions (Helmiö & Järvelä, 2004)
Age-dependent climate sensitivity of Pinus sylvestris L. in the central Scandinavian Mountains (Linderholm & Linderholm, 2004)
Daytime temperature sum — a new thermal variable describing growing season characteristics and explaining evapotranspiration (Solantie, 2004)
Composition and origins of aerosol during a high PM10 episode in Finland (Tervahattu et al. 2004)
Patterns of coherent dynamics within and between lake districts at local to intercontinental scales (Magnuson et al. 2004)
Atmospheric circulation and its impact on ice phenology in Scandinavia (Blenckner et al. 2004)
The effect of climate and landuse on TOC concentrations and loads in Finnish rivers (Arvola et al. 2004)
The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the winter characteristics of Windermere (UK) and Pääjärvi (Finland) (George et al. 2004)
Reflection of the changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Gulf Stream Position Index in the hydrology and phytoplankton of Võrtsjärv, a large, shallow lake in Estonia (Nõges, 2004)
Effects of an extreme precipitation event on water chemistry and phytoplankton in the Swedish Lake Mälaren (Weyhenmeyer et al. 2004)
Potential springtime greenhouse gas emissions from a small southern boreal lake (Keihäsjärvi, Finland) (Huttunen et al. 2004)
Meteorological and climatological factors affecting transport and deposition of nitrogen compounds over the Baltic Sea (Hongisto & Joffre, 2005)
Climate driven changes in the spawning of roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)) and bream (Abramis brama (L.)) in the Estonian part of the Narva River basin (Nõges & Järvet, 2005)
On the existence of neutral atmospheric clusters (Kulmala et al. 2005)
Wind wave statistics in Tallinn Bay (Soomere, 2005)
Climatic turning points and regime shifts in the Baltic Sea region: the Baltic winter index (WIBIX) 1659–2002 (Hagen & Feistel, 2005)
Productivity of boreal forests in relation to climate and vegetation zones (Solantie, 2005)
Feedback processes between climate, surface and vegetation at the northern climatological tree-line (Finnish Lapland) (Vajda & Venäläinen, 2005)
Station for Measuring Ecosystem–Atmosphere Relations (SMEAR II) (Hari & Kulmala, 2005)
Formation and growth of fresh atmospheric aerosols: eight years of aerosol size distribution data from SMEAR II, Hyytiälä, Finland (Dal Maso et al. 2005)
Evaluation of an automatic algorithm for fitting the particle number size distributions (Hussein et al. 2005)
Annual and size dependent variation of growth rates and ion concentrations in boreal forest (Hirsikko et al. 2005)
Organic compounds in atmospheric aerosols from a Finnish coniferous forest (Anttila et al. 2005)
Physico-chemical characterization and mass closure of size-segregated atmospheric aerosols in Hyytiälä, Finland (Saarikoski et al. 2005)
Wintertime CO2 evolution from a boreal forest ecosystem (Ilvesniemi et al. 2005)
On-line PTR-MS measurements of atmospheric concentrations of volatile organic compounds in a European boreal forest ecosystem (Rinne et al. 2005)
Research Unit of Physics, Chemistry and Biology of Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change: overview of recent results (Kulmala et al. 2005)
Probability of nucleation events and aerosol particle concentration in different air mass types arriving at Hyytiälä, southern Finland, based on back trajectories analysis (Sogacheva et al. 2005)
Seasonal variations of trace gases, meteorological parameters, and formation of aerosols in boreal forests (Lyubovtseva et al. 2005)
Effect of ammonium bisulphate formation on atmospheric water-sulphuric acid-ammonia nucleation (Anttila et al. 2005)
A combined photochemistry/aerosol dynamics model: model development and a study of new particle formation (Grini et al. 2005)
Design and performance characteristics of a condensation particle counter UF-02proto (Mordas et al. 2005)
Eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and sensible and latent heat fluxes during a full year in a boreal pine forest trunk-space (Launiainen et al. 2005)
Methane fluxes at the sediment–water interface in some boreal lakes and reservoirs (Huttunen et al. 2006)
Sea level variability at the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea (Dailidiene et al. 2006)
Past and future changes in sea level near the Estonian coast in relation to changes in wind climate (Suursaar et al. 2006)
Cyclone Gudrun in January 2005 and modelling its hydrodynamic consequences in the Estonian coastal waters (Suursaar et al. 2006)
Trends in sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast during the period 1949/1950–2003/2004 and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation (Jaagus, 2006)
Post-glacial sedimentation rate and patterns in six lakes of the Kokemäenjoki upper watercourse, Finland (Valpola & Ojala, 2006)
Monitoring of black carbon and size-segregated particle number concentrations at 9-m and 65-m distances from a major road in Helsinki (Pakkanen et al. 2006)
Spring in the boreal environment: observations on pre- and post-melt energy and CO2 fluxes in two central Siberian ecosystems (Arneth et al. 2006)
Regional climate simulations for the Barents Sea region (Keup-Thiel et al. 2006)
Determination of forest growth trends in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia): combination of tree-ring analysis and remote sensing data (Lopatin et al. 2006)
Life cycle assessment of Finnish cultivated rainbow trout (Grönroos et al. 2006)
High soil carbon efflux rates in several ecosystems in southern Sweden (Tagesson & Lindrot, 2007)
Methods for determining emission factors for the use of peat and peatlands — flux measurements and modelling (Alm et al. 2007)
Annual CO2 and CH4 fluxes of pristine boreal mires as a background for the lifecycle analyses of peat energy (Saarnio et al. 2007)
Heterotrophic soil respiration in forestry-drained peatlands (Minkkinen at al., 2007)
Tree stand volume as a scalar for methane fluxes in forestry-drained peatlands in Finland (Minkkinen at al., 2007)
Greenhouse gas emissions from cultivated and abandoned organic croplands in Finland (Maljanen et al. 2007)
Carbon dioxide exchange above a 30-year-old Scots pine plantation established on organic-soil cropland (Lohila et al. 2007)
Soil greenhouse gas emissions from afforested organic soil croplands and cutaway peatlands (Mäkiranta et al. 2007)
Carbon gas exchange of a re-vegetated cut-away peatland five decades after abandonment (Yli-Petäys et al. 2007)
Emission factors and their uncertainty for the exchange of CO2, CH4 and N2O in Finnish managed peatlands (Alm et al. 2007)
Greenhouse impact due to different peat fuel utilisation chains in Finland — a life-cycle approach (Kirkinen et al. 2007)
Peat-based emissions in Finland’s national greenhouse gas inventory (Lapveteläinen et al. 2007)
A wide-range multi-channel Air Ion Spectrometer (Mirme et al. 2007)
The 222Rn activity concentration, external radiation dose and air ion production rates in a boreal forest in Finland between March 2000 and June 2006 (Hirsikko et al. 2007)
Hot-air balloon as a platform for boundary layer profile measurements during particle formation (Laakso et al. 2007)
Road-side measurements of aerosol and ion number size distributions: a comparison with remote site measurements (Tiitta et al. 2007)
Size distributions of atmospheric ions in the Baltic Sea region (Komppula et al. 2007)
Size distributions of atmospheric ions inside clouds and in cloud-free air at a remote continental site (Lihavainen et al. 2007)
Nucleation events detected at the high altitude site of the Puy de Dôme Research Station, France (Venzac et al. 2007)
Modal structure of the atmospheric aerosol particle size spectrum for nucleation burst days in Estonia (Pugatsova et al. 2007)
Ion and particle number concentrations and size distributions along the Trans-Siberian railroad (Vartiainen et al. 2007)
Charged particle size distributions and analysis of particle formation events at the Finnish Antarctic research station Aboa (Virkkula et al. 2007)
Simulating aerosol nucleation bursts in a coniferous forest (Tammet & Kulmala, 2007)
Quantum chemical studies of hydrate formation of H2SO4 and HSO4– (Kurtén et al. 2007)
Validation of the SNOWPACK model in five different snow zones in Finland (Rasmus et al. 2007)
Antecedent snow conditions affect water levels and plant biomass of a fen in the southern boreal forest: results from an experiment using mesocosms (Benoy et al. 2007)
Holocene vegetation history of the Riisitunturi fell area in NE Finland, traced by the palynostratigraphy of two disgenic upland lakes (Huttunen, 2007)
FinROSE — middle atmospheric chemistry transport model (Damski et al. 2007)
The energy balance and vertical thermal structure of two small boreal lakes in summer (Elo, 2007)
Environmental changes in SE Estonia during the last 700 years (Saarse & Niinemets, 2007)
Thermally driven mesoscale flows — simulations and measurements (Törnblom et al. 2007)
Meteorological features behind spring runoff formation in the Nemunas River (Stankunavicius et al. 2007)
Impact of climate change on Estonian coastal and inland wetlands — a summary with new results (Kont et al. 2007)
Nitrogen pools and C:N ratios in well-drained Nordic forest soils related to climate and soil texture (Callesen et al. 2007)
Timing of plant phenophases in Finnish Lapland in 1997–2006 (Pudas et al. 2008)
Climatological characteristics of summer precipitation in Helsinki during the period 1951–2000 (Kilpeläinen et al. 2008)
Aerosol particle formation events at two Siberian stations inside the boreal forest (Dal Maso et al. 2008)
Aerosol components and types in the Baltic Sea region (Reinart et al. 2008)
The effects of fluctuating climatic conditions and weather events on nutrient dynamics in a narrow mosaic riparian peatland (Kull et al. 2008)
The relationship between fire activity and fire weather indices at different stages of the growing season in Finland (Tanskanen & Venäläinen, 2008)
Long-term trends in spring phenology in a boreal forest in central Finland (Lappalainen et al. 2008)
Development of Finnish peatland area and carbon storage 1950–2000 (Turunen, 2008)
Snow accumulation on evergreen needle-leaved and deciduous broad-leaved trees (Suzuki et al. 2008)
Boreal forest leaf area index from optical satellite images: model simulations and empirical analyses using data from central Finland (Stenberg et al. 2008)
Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon in stand throughfall and percolation water in 12 boreal coniferous stands on mineral soils in Finland (Lindroos et al. 2008)
Response of boreal forest vegetation to the fertility status of the organic layer along a climatic gradient (Salemaa et al. 2008)
Water-extractable organic compounds in different components of the litter layer of boreal coniferous forest soils along a climatic gradient (Hilli et al. 2008)
The costs of monitoring changes in forest soil carbon stocks (Mäkipää et al. 2008)
Momentum fluxes and wind gradients in the marine boundary layer — a multi-platform study (Högström et al. 2008)
The response of phytoplankton to increased temperature in the Loviisa archipelago, Gulf of Finland (Ilus & Keskitalo, 2008)
Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia) (Lopatin et al. 2008)
Sensitivity of Baltic Sea deep water salinity and oxygen concentration to variations in physical forcing (Gustafsson & Omstedt, 2009)
Regionalisation of the precipitation pattern in the Baltic Sea drainage basin and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric circulation (Jaagus, 2009)
Diurnal variability of precipitable water in the Baltic region, impact on transmittance of the direct solar radiation (Jakobson et al. 2009)
Water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin: Evaluation of simulated fluxes in a regional climate model (Lind & Kjellström, 2009)
An enhanced sea-ice thermodynamic model applied to the Baltic Sea (Tedesco et al. 2009)
Is greenhouse gas forcing a plausible explanation for the observed warming in the Baltic Sea catchment area? (Bhend & von Storch, 2009)
Detecting changes in winter seasons in Latvia: the role of arctic air masses (Draveniece, 2009)
Future trends and variability of the hydrological cycle in different IPCC SRES emission scenarios — a case study for the Baltic Sea region (Jacob & Lorenz, 2009)
Changes in the water budget in the Baltic Sea drainage basin in future warmer climates as simulated by the regional climate model RCA3 (Kjellström & Lind, 2009)
Long-term temperature and salinity records from the Baltic Sea transition zone (Madsen & Højerslev, 2009)
Simulated crop yield — an indicator of climate variability (Saue & Kadaja, 2009)
Changes in frequency of Baltic Sea cyclones and their relationships with NAO and climate in Estonia (Sepp, 2009)
Highlights of the physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland reflecting potential climate changes (Soomere et al. 2009)
Recurrence of heavy precipitation, dry spells and deep snow cover in Finland based on observations (Venäläinen et al. 2009)
Simulating river flow to the Baltic Sea from climate simulations over the past millennium (Graham et al. 2009)
Storm surges in the Odra mouth area during the 1997–2006 decade (Kowalewska-Kalkowska & Wisniewski, 2009)
Adaptation to floods and droughts in the Baltic Sea basin under climate change (Kundzewicz, 2009)
Comparison of regional and ecosystem CO2 fluxes (Gryning et al. 2009)
Dependence of upwelling-mediated nutrient transport on wind forcing, bottom topography and stratification in the Gulf of Finland: Model experiments (Laanemets et al. 2009)
Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change (Langner et al. 2009)
Atmospheric CO2 variation over the Baltic Sea and the impact on air–sea exchange (Rutgersson et al. 2009)
Towards policies and adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic Sea region — outputs of the ASTRA project (Leal Filho & Mannke, 2009)
Upwelling characteristics derived from satellite sea surface temperature data in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea (Uiboupin & Laanemets, 2009)
The effect of temperature and PAR on the annual photosynthetic production of Scots pine in northern Finland during 1906–2002 (Hari & Nöjd, 2009)
Temporal variations in surface water CO2 concentration in a boreal humic lake based on high-frequency measurements (Huotari et al. 2009)
The urban measurement station SMEAR III: Continuous monitoring of air pollution and surface–atmosphere interactions in Helsinki, Finland (Järvi et al. 2009)
Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in two coastal wetlands in the northeastern Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea (Liikanen et al. 2009)
Temperature and humidity characteristics of two willow stands, a peaty meadow and a drained pasture and their impact on landscape functioning (Brom & Pokorny, 2009)
A comprehensive network of measuring stations to monitor climate change (Hari et al. 2009)
Smart-SMEAR: on-line data exploration and visualization tool for SMEAR stations (Junninen et al. 2009)
Measurements of humidified particle number size distributions in a Finnish boreal forest: derivation of hygroscopic particle growth factors (Birmili et al. 2009)
A comparison of new particle formation events in the boundary layer at three different sites in Europe (Jaatinen et al. 2009)
Comparison of net CO2 fluxes measured with open- and closed-path infrared gas analyzers in an urban complex environment (Järvi et al. 2009)
Physical and chemical characteristics of aerosol particles and cloud-droplet activation during the Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE) (Kivekäs et al. 2009)
Snow scavenging of ultrafine particles: field measurements and parameterization (Kyrö et al. 2009)
Aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer for measuring ultrafine aerosol particles (Laitinen et al. 2009)
Ozone concentration variations observed in northern Finland in relation to photochemical, transport and cloud processes (Laurila et al. 2009)
Ion-UHMA: a model for simulating the dynamics of neutral and charged aerosol particles (Leppä et al. 2009)
Overview of the research activities and results at Puijo semi-urban measurement station (Leskinen et al. 2009)
Long-term field measurements of charged and neutral clusters using Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) (Manninen et al. 2009)
eucalyptol the cause of nocturnal events observed in Australia? (Ortega et al. 2009)
Connection between new particle formation and sulphuric acid at Hohenpeissenberg (Germany) including the influence of organic compounds (Paasonen et al. 2009)
Analysis of organic compounds in ambient aerosols collected with the particle-into-liquid sampler (Parshintsev et al. 2009)
Observations of aerosol–cloud interactions at the Puijo semi-urban measurement station (Portin et al. 2009)
The evolution of nucleation- and Aitken-mode particle compositions in a boreal forest environment during clean and pollution-affected new-particle formation events (Vaattovaara et al. 2009)
Characteristics of new particle formation events and cluster ions at K-puszta, Hungary (Yli-Juuti et al. 2009)
Carbon dioxide exchange on a northern boreal fen (Aurela et al. 2009)
Spring recovery of photosynthesis and atmospheric particle formation (Dal Maso et al. 2009)
Annual variations of atmospheric VOC concentrations in a boreal forest (Hakola et al. 2009)
Long-term measurements of the carbon balance of a boreal Scots pine dominated forest ecosystem (Ilvesniemi et al. 2009)
Pressure responses of portable CO2 concentration sensors (Kulmala et al. 2009)
CO2 exchange and component CO2 fluxes of a boreal Scots pine forest (Kolari et al. 2009)
Biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from the Eurasian taiga: current knowledge and future directions (Rinne et al. 2009)
Synoptic circulation and its influence on spring and summer surface ozone concentrations in southern Sweden (Tang et al. 2009)
Emissions of volatile halogenated compounds from a meadow in a coastal area of the Baltic Sea (Valtanen et al. 2009)
Evaluating the diffuse attenuation coefficient of dry snow by using an artificial light source (Rasmus & Huttunen, 2009)
Prolongation of soil frost resulting from reduced snow cover increases nitrous oxide emissions from boreal forest soil (Maljanen et al. 2010)
Holocene groundwater table fluctuations in a small perched aquifer inferred from sediment record of Kankaanjärvi, SW Finland (Kaakinen et al. 2010)
An offline study of the impact of lakes on the performance of the ECMWF surface scheme (Dutra et al. 2010)
The impact of lakes on the European climate as simulated by a regional climate model (Samuelsson et al. 2010)
A study on effects of lake temperature and ice cover in HIRLAM (Eerola et al. 2010)
Simulation of temperate freezing lakes by one-dimensional lake models: performance assessment for interactive coupling with regional climate models (Martynov et al. 2010)
External data for lake parameterization in Numerical Weather Prediction and climate modeling (Kourzenova, 2010)
Deriving an effective lake depth from satellite lake surface temperature data: a feasibility study with MODIS data (Balsamo et al. 2010)
First steps of a Lake Model Intercomparison Project: LakeMIP (Stepanenko et al. 2010)
A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century (Krinner & Boike, 2010)
Implementation of the lake parameterisation scheme FLake into the numerical weather prediction model COSMO (Mironov et al. 2010)
Coupling of the FLake model to the Surfex externalized surface model (Salgado & Le Moigne, 2010)
Applicability of the FLake model to Lake Balaton (Vörös et al. 2010)
Impact of warmer climate on Lake Geneva water-temperature profiles (Perroud & Goyette, 2010)
Modeling the impact of global warming on water temperature and seasonal mixing regimes in small temperate lakes (Kirillin, 2010)
Depth induced breaking of wind generated surface gravity waves in Estonian coastal waters (Alari & Raudsepp, 2010)
Vertical and horizontal variation of carbon pools and fluxes in soil profile of wet southern taiga in European Russia (Šantrůčková et al. 2010)
Climate effects on zooplankton biomasses in a coastal Baltic Sea area (Hansson et al. 2010)
Validation of three-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Gulf of Finland (Myrberg et al. 2010)
Coupling the 1-D lake model FLake to the community land-surface model JULES (Rooney & Jones, 2010)
Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on climate in Latvia (Klavins & Rodinov, 2010)
Quality assurance in the FMI Doppler Weather Radar Network (Saltikoff et al. 2010)
Geographical origin of aerosol particles observed during the LAPBIAT measurement campaign in spring 2003 in Finnish Lapland (Kaasik et al. 2011)
Occurrence of synoptic flaw leads of sea ice in the Gulf of Finland (Pärn & Haapala, 2011)
Characteristics and variability of the vertical thermohaline structure in the Gulf of Finland in summer (Liblik & Lips, 2011)
Coastal erosion processes in the eastern Gulf of Finland and their links with geological and hydrometeorological factors (Ryabchuk et al. 2011)
Wind forced currents over the shallow Naissaar Bank in the Gulf of Finland (Lilover et al. 2011)
Changes in phytoplankton communities along a north–south gradient in the Baltic Sea between 1990 and 2008 (Jaanus et al. 2011)
Radiative transfer simulations link boreal forest structure and shortwave albedo (Rautiainen et al. 2011)
Land use, geomorphology and climate as environmental determinants of emergent aquatic macrophytes in boreal catchments (Alahuhta et al. 2011)
Possible effects of climate change on potato crops in Estonia (Saue & Kadaja, 2011)
Below-cloud scavenging of aerosol particles by snow at an urban site in Finland (Paramonov et al. 2011)
land ecosystem–atmosphere processes study (iLEAPS) assessment of global observational networks (Guenther et al. 2011)
On measurements of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases in Siberia and future research needs (Kulmala et al. 2011)
Remote sensing based estimates of surface wetness conditions and growing degree days over northern Alberta, Canada (Akther & Hassan, 2011)
Northward density shift of bird species in boreal protected areas due to climate change (Virkkala & Rajasärkkä, 2011)
Eco-energy and urbanisation: messages from birds about wind turbine proliferation (Fox, 2011)
Do long-distance migrants use temperature variations along the migration route in Europe to adjust the timing of their spring arrival? (Halkka et al. 2011)
Using first arrival dates to infer bird migration phenology (Lindén, 2011)
Wave hindcast statistics in the seasonally ice-covered Baltic Sea (Tuomi et al. 2011)
Soil drought increases atmospheric fine particle capture efficiency of Norway spruce (Räsänen et al. 2012)
Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland (Laapas et al. 2012)
Seasonal changes in canopy leaf area index and MODIS vegetation products for a boreal forest site in central Finland (Rautiainen et al. 2012)
Comparison of atmospheric concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds, chloride and base cations at Ähtäri and Hyytiälä, Finland (Ruoho-Airola, 2012)
Atlantic salmon abundance and size track climate regimes in the Baltic Sea (Huusko & Hyvärinen, 2012)
Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Baltic States (Kriauciuniene et al. 2012)
Excavation-drier method of energy-peat extraction reduces long-term climatic impact (Silvan et al. 2012)
Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas (Stankūnavičius et al. 2012)
Climatology of cyclones with a southern origin, and their influence on air temperature and precipitation in Estonia (Mändla et al. 2012)
Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff (Hänninen & Vuorinen, 2012)
Summer concentrations of NMHCs in ambient air of the Arctic and Antarctic (Hellén et al. 2012)
Collapse and recovery of the European smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) population in a small boreal lake — an early warning of the consequences of climate change (Keskinen et al. 2012)

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New research – climate change impacts on mankind (July 28, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 28, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change (Mitchell et al. 2016)

Abstract: It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

Climate change and migration in the Pacific: options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands (Constable, 2016)

Abstract: As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

Rural drinking water issues in India’s drought-prone area: a case of Maharashtra state (Udmale et al. 2016)

Abstract: Obtaining sufficient drinking water with acceptable quality under circumstances of lack, such as droughts, is a challenge in drought-prone areas of India. This study examined rural drinking water availability issues during a recent drought (2012) through 22 focus group discussions (FGDs) in a drought-prone catchment of India. Also, a small chemical water quality study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of water for drinking purpose based on Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The drought that began in 2011 and further deteriorated water supplies in 2012 caused a rapid decline in reservoir storages and groundwater levels that led, in turn, to the failure of the public water supply systems in the Upper Bhima Catchment. Dried up and low-yield dug wells and borewells, tanker water deliveries from remote sources, untimely water deliveries, and degraded water quality were the major problems identified in the FGDs. In addition to severe drinking water scarcity during drought, the quality of the drinking water was found to be a major problem, and it apparently was neglected by local governments and users. Severe contamination of the drinking water with nitrate-nitrogen, ammonium-nitrogen, and chlorides was found in the analyzed drinking water samples. Hence, in addition to the water scarcity, the results of this study point to an immediate need to investigate the problem of contaminated drinking water sources while designing relief measures for drought-prone areas of India.

Climate change impacts on European agriculture revisited: adding the economic dimension of grasslands (Aghajanzadeh-Darzi et al. 2016)

Abstract: Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Collapse of Lowland Maya Civilization (Douglas et al. 2016)

Abstract: Paleoclimatologists have discovered abundant evidence that droughts coincided with collapse of the Lowland Classic Maya civilization, and some argue that climate change contributed to societal disintegration. Many archaeologists, however, maintain that drought cannot explain the timing or complex nature of societal changes at the end of the Classic Period, between the eighth and eleventh centuries ce. This review presents a compilation of climate proxy data indicating that droughts in the ninth to eleventh century were the most severe and frequent in Maya prehistory. Comparison with recent archaeological evidence, however, indicates an earlier beginning for complex economic and political processes that led to the disintegration of states in the southern region of the Maya lowlands that precedes major droughts. Nonetheless, drought clearly contributed to the unusual severity of the Classic Maya collapse, and helped to inhibit the type of recovery seen in earlier periods of Maya prehistory. In the drier northern Maya Lowlands, a later political collapse at ca. 1000 ce appears to be related to ongoing extreme drought. Future interdisciplinary research should use more refined climatological and archaeological data to examine the relationship between climate and social processes throughout the entirety of Maya prehistory.

Other papers

Death from respiratory diseases and temperature in Shiraz, Iran (2006–2011) (Dadbakhsh et al. 2016)

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability (Pérez et al. 2016)

Precipitation Effects on Motor Vehicle Crashes Vary by Space, Time and Environmental Conditions (Tamerius et al. 2016)

The potential for adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan livestock systems (de Jalón et al. 2016)

Can Gridded Precipitation Data and Phenological Observations Reduce Basis Risk of Weather Index-based Insurance? (Dalhaus et al. 2016)

Sea surface temperature impacts on winter cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula (Capa-Morocho et al. 2016)

Separating the effects of phenology and diffuse radiation on gross primary productivity in winter wheat (Williams et al. 2016)

Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change (Cobon et al. 2016)

Heat-related mortality: Effect modification and adaptation in Japan from 1972 to 2010 (Ng et al. 2016)

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities (Antunes et al. 2016)

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview (Weir et al. 2016)

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050 (Röös et al. 2016)

“Climate change damages”, conceptualization of a legal notion with regard to reparation under international law (Kugler & Sariego, 2016)

Temperature deviation index and elderly mortality in Japan (Lim et al. 2016)

Climatic influence on corn sowing date in the Midwestern United States (Choi et al. 2016)

New Zealand kiwifruit growers’ vulnerability to climate and other stressors (Cradock-Henry, 2016)

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine (Mosedale et al. 2016)

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New research – climate change mitigation (July 25, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 25, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change mitigation are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.


What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

Abstract: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net −5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with −1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.

Productivity ranges of sustainable biomass potentials from non-agricultural land

Abstract: Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha−1 a−1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha−1 a−1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

Understanding the nuclear controversy: An application of cultural theory

Abstract: The need for a secure and sustainable energy future has become firmly entrenched on the global political agenda. Governments worldwide are seeking solutions that will ensure security of their energy supplies, while reducing carbon emissions in the fight against climate change. Advocates of nuclear power have reframed the technology as the most reliable, cost-effective and immediate solution to both of these policy problems, and predicted the emergence of a ‘nuclear renaissance’. However, there is little evidence to date that suggests a nuclear renaissance has actually taken place. Public opinion polling demonstrates that many remain unconvinced of the need for nuclear power. This paper uses Cultural Theory as a heuristic to understand why the arguments for a nuclear renaissance have been largely unsuccessful. It argues that the failure of nuclear advocates to engage with a wider cross-section of world-views has prevented the controversy surrounding nuclear power from being resolved, and the nuclear renaissance from becoming a reality. In doing so, this paper builds upon a growing recognition of the contribution that social science research can make to understanding public acceptance of energy policy choices.

An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering

Abstract: Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state-of-the-art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering.

Pacific Islanders’ understanding of climate change: Where do they source information and to what extent do they trust it?

Abstract: The experience of environmental stress and attitudes towards climate change was explored for 1226 students at the University of the South Pacific, the foremost tertiary institution serving the independent nations of the Pacific. Students sourced information regarding climate change from media including television, radio, and newspapers; the community (typically via their village, church, and extended family); the University and their friends; and in addition to regional agencies such as the Pacific Community. Most students concluded that they could not believe all of the informations provided by these sources. The findings demonstrate that most students—the future elite of the region—rank global environmental change as the highest future risk. Although nearly all respondents believed that climate change was happening, more than half of respondents believed that the risk was exaggerated and only one-third believed that science would find an answer, suggesting a lack of trust in scientific sources of information. Results also showed that these attitudes varied across demographic factors such as age, region, and gender. The understanding of contemporary attitudes towards global environmental change among a cohort that is likely to include future national leaders in the Pacific Islands region presents unique opportunities for long-range planning of intervention and support strategies. Of particular note for effective intervention and support is the breadth and trustworthiness of various information sources including Pacific Island leaders.

Other papers

What are the limits to oil palm expansion?

Risks affecting the biofuels industry: A US and Canadian company perspective

Investigating biofuels through network analysis

Life cycle inventories of electricity supply through the lens of data quality: exploring challenges and opportunities

Increasing beef production won’t reduce emissions

Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States

Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways

An assessment of alternative carbon mitigation policies for achieving the emissions reduction of the Clean Power Plan: Case study for the state of Indiana

A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards

Can climate policy enhance sustainability?

Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals

REDD+ politics in the media: a case from Nepal

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change

The impact of different cooling strategies on urban air temperatures: the cases of Campinas, Brazil and Mendoza, Argentina

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Unravelling the United Kingdom’s climate policy consensus: The power of ideas, discourse and institutions

Could artificial ocean alkalinization protect tropical coral ecosystems from ocean acidification?

Impacts of sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry

A comparative life cycle assessment of commercially available household silver-enabled polyester textiles

Most promising flexible generators for the wind dominated market

Conflicts of economic interests by limiting global warming to +3 °C

Reforestation in a high-CO2 world—Higher mitigation potential than expected, lower adaptation potential than hoped for

Fossil fuels, employment, and support for climate policies

China’s low-carbon transition for addressing climate change

Safety and effective developing nuclear power to realize green and low-carbon development

Coping with climate change and China’s wind energy sustainable development

Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm

An analysis of Chinese provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiencies based on energy consumption structure

The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process

Implicit CO2 prices of fossil fuel use in Switzerland

Could more civil society involvement increase public support for climate policy-making? Evidence from a survey experiment in China

Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the US Gulf coast

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New research, June 17, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 17, 2016

After this, there will be a few weeks break in these posts. New research posts will then resume possibly in a new form – stay tuned.

Some new papers from last few days:

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

Threshold Sensitivity of Shallow Arctic Lakes and Sub-lake Permafrost to Changing Winter Climate

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

Longer thaw seasons increase nitrogen availability for leaching during fall in tundra soils (open access)

Spatial patterns and frequency of unforced decadal-scale changes in global mean surface temperature in climate models

Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

A new perspective on global mean sea-level (GMSL) acceleration

The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

Organic matter losses in German Alps forest soils since the 1970s most likely caused by warming

Reversal of global atmospheric ethane and propane trends largely due to US oil and natural gas production

A high resolution record of Greenland mass balance

Derivation and validation of supraglacial lake volumes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from high-resolution satellite imagery

Revisiting Extreme Storms of the Past 100 Years for Future Safety of Large Water Management Infrastructures (open access)

Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades

Role of ocean evaporation in California droughts and floods

Effects of a Warming Climate on Daily Snowfall Events in the Northern Hemisphere

Can significant trends be detected in surface air temperature and precipitation over South America in recent decades?

On the ambiguous nature of the 11-year solar cycle signal in upper stratospheric ozone

Improved Retrieval of Cloud Liquid Water from CloudSat and MODIS

Albedo climatology for European land surfaces retrieved from AVHRR data (1990-2014) and its spatial and temporal analysis from green–up to vegetation senescence

Using satellite-derived optical thickness to assess the influence of clouds on terrestrial carbon uptake

An observationally based global band-by-band surface emissivity dataset for climate and weather simulations

Decadal to centennial variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge (open access)

Biodiversity in marine invertebrate responses to acute warming revealed by a comparative multi-omics approach

The effects of elevated CO2 and eutrophication on surface elevation gain in a European saltmarsh

How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France ? A generic modeling approach

Micro-climatic controls and warming effects on flowering time in alpine snowbeds

Spring bloom onset in the Nordic Seas (open access)

The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa

Regional organisations and climate change adaptation in small island developing states

Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region

Paradigms and poverty in global energy policy: research needs for achieving universal energy access (open access)

Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use

Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resources availability

A quantitative description of state-level taxation of oil and gas production in the continental U.S

Towards a low carbon growth in Mexico: Is a double dividend possible? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

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