AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research – climate change impacts on mankind (September 2, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 2, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City (Botzen et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1735-9

Abstract: Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6 months after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 of over 1,000 residents in flood-prone areas in New York City. Democrats’ perception of their probability of suffering flood damage is significantly higher than Republicans’ and they are also more likely to invest in individual flood protection measures. However, 50% more Democrats than Republicans in our sample expect to receive federal disaster relief after a major flood. These results highlight the importance of taking into account value-based considerations in designing disaster risk management policies.

Changes in wheat potential productivity and drought severity in Southwest China (Wang et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1895-6

Abstract: Wheat production in Southwest China (SWC) plays a vital role in guaranteeing local grain security, but it is threatened by increasingly frequent seasonal drought in recent years. In spite of the importance, the impact of past climate change on wheat potential productivity and drought severity has not been properly addressed. In this study, we employed a relatively simple resource use efficiency model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of the potential productivity (PP) and rainfed productivity (RP) of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Southwest China (SWC) from 1962 to 2010. A wheat drought severity index was defined as the relative difference between PP and RP, i.e., (PP-RP)/PP, to evaluate the changing frequency and severity of drought under warming SWC. Across the entire region from 1962 to 2010, the negative impact of decreasing sunshine hours (0.06 h day−1 per decade, p < 0.05) on PP was offset by the increase in average temperature of wheat growing season (0.22 °C per decade, p < 0.01). PP increased by 283 kg ha−1 per decade (p < 0.01), while RP did not show significant trend due to increased water stress. The gap between PP and RP has increased by 26 kg ha−1 per decade (p < 0.01). Moderate and severe drought mostly occurred in central and southern SWC. The percentage of stations experienced moderate or severe drought increased by 2.0 % (p < 0.05) per decade, and reached 52 % in recent decade. Our results, together with the uneven distribution of rainfall, indicate great potential for irrigation development to harvest water and increase wheat yield under the warming climate in SWC.

Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change (Zaveri et al. 2016) http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005/meta

Abstract: India is one of the world’s largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India’s agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India’s food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India’s agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.

Exploring the effect of heat on stated intentions to move (Zander et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1727-9

Abstract: Climate change is leading to more frequent and longer heat waves and in many places, such as large parts of Australia, to an increase in average temperatures. Rising temperatures can reduce well-being and influence decisions about residency and mobility among people. This study assesses the intentions of a nationally representative sample of working-age people living in Australia to move to somewhere cooler than where they currently live as a response to increasing heat. We found that 11 % of respondents intend to move away from their current place or residence because of increasing temperatures. We also found that men are more likely to intend to move, as are those who feel often stressed by heat, those with a generally high level of mobility, and those who are worried about climate change. Age does not explain movement intentions although it has been found that young people are generally the most mobile, and then those in retirement age again. This means that people formerly expected to be rather immobile might be more likely to intend to move when they feel the local climate has become intolerably hot. Planning for infrastructure and service provision, which has a long lead time, will therefore need adjustment to account for the likely effects of climate change on mobility decisions and settlement patterns.

Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes (Melia et al. 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069315/abstract

Abstract: The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic-transit shipping. By mid-century for standard Open Water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice – ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions have a larger impact by late-century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial inter-annual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late-century.

Other papers

Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies (Dueri et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301352

Effects of urban vegetation on mitigating exposure of vulnerable populations to excessive heat in Cleveland, Ohio (Declet-Barreto et al. 2016) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0026.1

Influence of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range on incidence of cardiac arrhythmias (Kim & Kim, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1221-0

Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province (Zhao et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1225-9

Impacts of aviation fuel sulfur content on climate and human health (Kapadia et al. 2016) http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/10521/2016/

Impact assessment of climate change and later-maturing cultivars on winter wheat growth and soil water deficit on the Loess Plateau of China (Ding et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1714-1

Will commercial fishing be a safe occupation in future? a framework to quantify future fishing risks due to climate change scenarios (Rezaee et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209471530027X

The impact of climate change on the winegrape vineyards of the Portuguese Douro region (Cunha & Richter, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1719-9

The ‘Pacific Adaptive Capacity Analysis Framework’: guiding the assessment of adaptive capacity in Pacific island communities (Warrick et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1036-x

Impact of short-term temperature variability on emergency hospital admissions for schizophrenia stratified by season of birth (Zhao et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1235-7

Whale watch or no watch: the Australian whale watching tourism industry and climate change (Meynecke et al. 2016) http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1034-z

Perceptions of environmental change and migration decisions (Koubi et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1767-1

An overview of the opportunities and challenges of promoting climate change adaptation at the local level: a case study from a community adaptation planning in Nepal (Regmi et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1765-3

Heat exposure on farmers in northeast Ghana (Frimpong et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1219-7

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble (Silva et al. 2016) http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/9847/2016/

Assessment of atmospheric moisture harvesting by direct cooling (Gido et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809516302216

Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios (Eitelberg et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300978

Adaptation to Climate Change: Commitment and Timing Issues (Breton & Sbragia, 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10640-016-0056-9

Markets and climate are driving rapid change in farming practices in Savannah West Africa (Ouédraogo et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1029-9

Farmer-level adaptation to climate change and agricultural drought: empirical evidences from the Barind region of Bangladesh (Hossain et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-016-2360-7

Climatic consequences of adopting drought tolerant vegetation over Los Angeles as a response to California drought (Vahmani & Ban-Weiss, 2016) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069658/abstract

Increased climate risk in Brazilian double cropping agriculture systems: Implications for land use in Northern Brazil (Pires et al. 2016) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303318

The influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index on hospital admissions through diseases of the circulatory system in Lisbon, Portugal (Almendra et al. 2016) http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1214-z

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