AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research, November 24, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 24, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift (open access)

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico (open access)

Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia

A New method for identifying possible causal relationships between CO2, total solar irradiance and global temperature change

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Predicting the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 and its timing

Evidence of a decadal solar signal in the Amazon River: 1903 to 2013

Decadal variability of upper ocean heat content in the Pacific: Responding to the 11-year solar cycle

Long-term variations in global sea level extremes

Ocean versus atmosphere control on western European wintertime temperature variability

Spectral characteristics of instrumental and climate model surface temperatures

Preaching to different choirs: How to motivate dismissive, uncommitted, and alarmed audiences to adapt to climate change?

Integrated radar and lidar analysis reveals extensive loss of remaining intact forest on Sumatra 2007–2010 (open access)

Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient

Temperature changes derived from phenological and natural evidence in South Central China from 1850 to 2008 (open access)

Indications for a North Atlantic ocean circulation regime shift at the onset of the Little Ice Age

Air pollution and climate response to aerosol direct radiative effects: a modeling study of decadal trends across the northern hemisphere

Assessing the role of precursor cyclones on the formation of extreme Greenland blocking episodes and their impact on summer melting across the Greenland ice sheet

OMI total column ozone: extending the long-term data record (open access)

The changing ozone depletion potential of N2O in a future climate

First surface velocity maps for glaciers of Monte Tronador, North Patagonian Andes, derived from sequential Pléiades satellite images

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 19, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 19, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Regional dependence in the timing of onset of rapid decline in Arctic sea ice concentration

Can we map the interannual variability of the whole upper Southern Ocean with the current database of hydrographic observations?

An impulse response function for the ‘long tail’ of excess atmospheric CO2 in an Earth system model

The relationship between inter-annual and long-term cloud feedbacks

Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming

The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Changes in climate extremes and catastrophic events in the Mongolian Plateau from 1951 to 2012

An Initial Study on Climate Change Fingerprinting Using The Reflected Solar Spectra

Antarctic sea ice response to weather and climate modes of variability

Estimation of continuous anthropogenic CO2: model-based evaluation of CO2, CO, δ13C(CO2) and Δ14C(CO2) tracer methods (open access)

Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases (open access)

Climate response to Amazon forest replacement by heterogeneous crop cover (open access)

The effects of global change upon United States air quality (open access)

Timing of rice maturity in China is affected more by transplanting date than by climate change

Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering (open access)

Review: Potential catastrophic reduction of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean: Its impact on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems

The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review (open access)

Farmer’s intended and actual adoption of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies (open access)

Improving the estimation of the true mean monthly and true mean annual air temperatures in Greece (open access)

Heat content of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool is increasing (open access)

Projections for the duration and degree days of the thermal growing season in Europe derived from CMIP5 model output

Global energy budgets and “Trenberth diagrams” for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets

Recent changes in Arctic temperature extremes: warm and cold spells during winter and summer (open access)

Why Finance Ministers Favor Carbon Taxes, Even If They Do Not Take Climate Change into Account

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming (open access)

Nitrogen deposition and its effect on carbon storage in Chinese forests during 1981–2010

Environmental impacts of German food consumption and food losses

Between redeemer and work of the devil: The transnational Brazilian biofuel discourse

Temperature driven changes in the diet preference of omnivorous copepods: no more meat when it’s hot?

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 13, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 13, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

Conceptual model analysis of the influence of temperature feedbacks on polar amplification

On Anomalous Ocean Heat Transport toward the Arctic and Associated Climate Predictability

Differences Between Conservatives and Liberals in Information Seeking Behavior and Perceived Risks Associated with Climate-driven Changes to Local Forest Conditions

Does the NMME Capture a Recent Decadal Shift Toward Increasing Drought Occurrence in the Southwestern US?

The transient and equilibrium climate response to rapid summertime sea ice loss in CCSM4

The global land shortwave cryosphere radiative effect during the MODIS era (open access)

Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss (open access)

Putting the clouds back in aerosol–cloud interactions (open access)

Coastal lagoons and rising sea level: A review

Land surface phenology of China’s temperate ecosystems over 1999–2013: Spatial–temporal patterns, interaction effects, covariation with climate and implications for productivity

Is there a transition of solar radiation from dimming to brightening over India?

Re-estimation of glacier mass loss in Greenland from GRACE with correction of land-ocean leakage effects

Approaches to Observe Anthropogenic Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (open access)

What shapes perceptions of climate change? New research since 2010

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Climate change and larval-transport in the ocean: Fractional effects from physical and physiological factors

On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic

Multi-decadal shoreline changes in response to sea level rise in the Marshall Islands

Metropolitan foodsheds: a resilient response to the climate change challenge?

Mediterranean climate future: an insightful look into the Basin’s precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing (open access)

Biogenic acidification reduces sea urchin gonad growth and increases susceptibility of aquaculture to ocean acidification

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, November 7, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on November 7, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Changing Amazon biomass and the role of atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate and land use

Loitering of the retreating sea ice edge in the Arctic Seas

Climatology and trends of tropical cyclone high wind in mainland China: 1959–2011

The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation

How did ocean warming affect Australian rainfall extremes during the 2010/11 La Niña event?

Early Cenomanian “hot greenhouse” revealed by oxygen isotope record of exceptionally well-preserved foraminifera from Tanzania

Twentieth century increase in snowfall in coastal West Antarctica (open access)

Seasonal and interannual variability of fast ice extent in the southeastern Laptev Sea between 1999 and 2013

Atmospheric energy transport to the Arctic 1979-2012 (open access)

Mass balance of the Sør Rondane glacial system, East Antarctica

Large-scale reconstruction of accumulation rates in northern Greenland from radar data

Sensitivities of glacier mass balance and runoff to climate perturbations in Norway

Temperature distribution and thermal anomalies along a flowline of the Greenland ice sheet

Greenland high-elevation mass balance: inference and implication of reference period (1961–90) imbalance

Climate change implications for tropical islands: Interpolating and interpreting statistically downscaled GCM projections for management and planning

Characterizing the Hadley circulation response through regional climate feedbacks

Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014 (open access)

Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes (open access)

An Overview of Weather and Climate Extremes – Products and Trends (open access)

Chemical weathering and consumption of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the Alpine region

Intercomparison of the temperature contrast between the arctic and equator in the pre- and post periods of the 1976/1977 regime shift

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: process and prospects for sustained assessment

Temporal evolution of Hudson Bay Sea Ice (1971–2011)

Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world

Detection and attribution of the effects of climate change on bat distributions over the last 50 years

Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity

Canopy leaf area of a mature evergreen Eucalyptus woodland does not respond to elevated atmospheric [CO2] but tracks water availability

Local indicators of climate change: the potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

Reconstruction and homogenization of the longest instrumental precipitation series in the Iberian Peninsula (Barcelona, 1786–2014)

Novel wildlife in the Arctic: the influence of changing riparian ecosystems and shrub habitat expansion on snowshoe hares

Decadal changes in radiative fluxes at land and ocean surfaces and their relevance for global warming (open access)

Detection and attribution of regional CO2 concentration anomalies using surface observations

Life cycle assessment of energy generation in Poland (open access)

Leave before it’s too late: Anthropogenic and environmental triggers of autumn migration in a hunted ungulate population

Contrasting synchrony in root and leaf phenology across multiple sub-Arctic plant communities

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 30, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 30, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Has the grand idea of geoengineering as Plan B run out of steam?

Holocene North Atlantic Overturning in an atmosphere–ocean-sea-ice model compared to proxy-based reconstructions

Large methane emissions from a subarctic lake during spring thaw: mechanisms and landscape significance

Placing the 2012–2015 California-Nevada drought into a paleoclimatic context: Insights from Walker Lake, California-Nevada, USA

Millennial-scale oscillations between sea ice and convective deep water formation

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea-level rise: Past and future

Distributed subglacial discharge drives significant submarine melt at a Greenland tidewater glacier

Future change in ocean productivity: Is the Arctic the new Atlantic?

The impact of regional Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric circulation and the NAO

Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Comparison of radiative energy flows in observational datasets and climate modeling

Stratospheric geoengineering impacts on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (open access)

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate? (open access)

The U.S. Drought of 2012 (open access)

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study (open access)

Decadal trends of the annual amplitude of global precipitation (open access)

Air temperature changes in Svalbard and the surrounding seas from 1865 to 1920

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming

Carbon sequestration in soil

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits (open access)

Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on US public health (open access)

Sensitivity of global wildfire occurrences to various factors in the context of global change

Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK

Fisheries management responses to climate change in the Baltic Sea (open access)

Warming affects hatching time and early season survival of eastern tent caterpillars

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 26, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 26, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Interannual variations of light-absorbing particles in snow on Arctic sea ice

Trends in mesospheric ice layers in the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2013

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

The detectability of climate engineering

The 2011 Great Flood in Thailand: Climate Diagnostics and Implications from Climate Change

How Has Human-induced Climate Change Affected California Drought Risk?

Historical changes in frequency of extreme floods in Prague (open access)

The importance of Asia as a source of black carbon to the European Arctic during springtime 2013 (open access)

Glacier changes in the Ravi basin, north-western Himalaya (India) during the last four decades (1971–2010/13)

Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models

Analysis of recent changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Pakistan

Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks

Recent accelerating mass loss of southeast Tibetan glaciers and the relationship with changes in macroscale atmospheric circulations

Effect of methane leakage on the greenhouse gas footprint of electricity generation

The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph

Do rapidly developing countries take up new responsibilities for climate change mitigation?

Global warming-related tree growth decline and mortality on the north-eastern Tibetan plateau

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds – combining annual and decadal time scales

Geographical imbalances and divides in the scientific production of climate change knowledge

Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection (open access)

3D simulation of boreal forests: structure and dynamics in complex terrain and in a changing climate (open access)

Climatization: A Critical Perspective of Framing Disasters as Climate Change Events (open access)

California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 20, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 20, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

Southward shift of the northern tropical belt from 1945 to 1980

Origins of Anthropocene awareness

Thousand-year history of northeastern Europe exploration in the context of climatic change: Medieval to early modern times

Neither dust nor black carbon causing apparent albedo decline in Greenland’s dry snow zone; implications for MODIS C5 surface reflectance

Regional sea level change in response to ice mass loss in Greenland, the West Antarctic and Alaska

Increase in HFC-134a emissions in response to the success of the Montreal Protocol

Empirical error functions for monthly-mean Arctic sea-ice drift

A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation

First records of winter sea-ice concentration in the southwest Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean

Links between Eastern Equatorial Pacific Stratification and Atmospheric CO2 Rise during the last Deglaciation

Sensitivity of the southern ocean to enhanced regional antarctic ice sheet meltwater input (open access)

Gas-hydrate dissociation prolongs acidification of the Anthropocene oceans

The role of the selection problem and non-Gaussianity in attribution of single events to climate change

Quantifying the limits of a linear temperature response to cumulative CO2 emissions

Blowing snow as a natural glaciogenic cloud seeding mechanism

Volcanic synchronization of Dome Fuji and Dome C Antarctic deep ice cores over the past 216 kyr (open access)

Images of climate change – a pilot study of young people’s perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Local perceptions in climate change debates: insights from case studies in the Alps and the Andes

Multi-decadal variability in the Greenland ice core records obtained using intrinsic timescale decomposition

Global patterns of solar influence on high cloud cover

Variations in annual winter mean temperature in South China since 1736

Protected areas’ role in climate-change mitigation

Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions (open access)

Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models? (open access)

Ground ice melt in the high Arctic leads to greater ecological heterogeneity

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 14, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 14, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios

Climate and human influences on historical fire regimes (AD 1400–1900) in the eastern Great Basin (USA)

Origins of Climate Model Discrepancies in Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption and Global Precipitation Changes

Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: a key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback

Consistent decrease in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last 3 centuries

Salt precipitation in sea ice and its effect on albedo, with application to Snowball Earth

Factors controlling cloud albedo in marine subtropical stratocumulus regions in climate models and satellite observations

Explaining the spread in global mean thermosteric sea level rise in CMIP5 climate models

The Climate Change Web Portal: a system to access and display climate and earth system model output from the CMIP5 archive

The role of snow cover affecting boreal-arctic soil freeze–thaw and carbon dynamics (open access)

Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate (open access)

Climate change and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems and countermeasures in China (open access)

Natural and human-induced changes in summer climate over the East Asian monsoon region in the last half century: A review (open access)

A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios (open access)

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth

Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century (open access)

Response to CO2 enrichment of understory vegetation in the shade of forests

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Dynamic habitat suitability modelling reveals rapid poleward distribution shift in a mobile apex predator

Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland (1951–2010): from warming to hiatus (open access)

The last Eurasian ice sheets – a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1 (open access)

Temperature-induced water stress in high-latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming

Theme issue ‘Responding and adapting to climate change: uncertainty as knowledge’ compiled and edited by Stephan Lewandowsky, Timothy Ballard and Richard D. Pancost

Uncertainty as knowledge (full text)

Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 9, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 9, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system: introduction (open access)

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback

Insights into low-latitude cloud feedbacks from high-resolution models

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate? (open access)

The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO2 (open access)

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback (open access)

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints (open access)

Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change

Can cirrus cloud seeding be used for geoengineering?

Anticipating the Anthropocene (open access)

Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica

Relationship Between Sunshine Duration and Temperature Trends Across Europe Since the Second Half of the 20th Century

Long term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: more evidence of high climate sensitivity

Blocking variability: Arctic Amplification versus Arctic Oscillation

Decadal variability in seawater pH in the West Pacific: Evidence from coral δ11B records

Effect of sea-ice melt on inherent optical properties and vertical distribution of solar radiant heating in Arctic surface waters

Global deep ocean oxygenation by enhanced ventilation in the Southern Ocean under long-term global warming

Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

A minimum standard for publishing computational results in the weather and climate sciences

Sea level budget over 2005–2013: missing contributions and data errors (open access)

Parallelisms between sea surface temperature changes in the western tropical Atlantic (Guiana Basin) and high latitude climate signals over the last 140 000 years (open access)

Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity, habitat connectivity, and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta, Canada

Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models’ response to warming

The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010 (open access)

Daily gridded meteorological variables in Brazil (1980–2013)

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

Direct radiative feedback due to biogenic secondary organic aerosol estimated from boreal forest site observations (open access)

Focus on high energy particles and atmospheric processes (open access)

Biogas: Clean Energy Access with Low-Cost Mitigation of Climate Change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, October 5, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 5, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus

North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies

Carbon isotope ratios suggest no additional methane from boreal wetlands during the rapid Greenland Interstadial 21.2

Using single-forcing GCM simulations to reconstruct and interpret Quaternary climate change

Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics (open access)

A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

Transition into a Hothouse World at the Permian–Triassic boundary—A model study

Climate change with elevation and its potential impact on water resources in the tianshan mountains, central Asia

Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century

The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate (open access)

Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat – Assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades

Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades

High spatial and temporal organization of changes in precipitation over Germany for 1951–2006

Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits

A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »


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