AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research, October 5, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on October 5, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Russian anthropogenic black carbon: Emission reconstruction and Arctic black carbon simulation

Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus

North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies

Carbon isotope ratios suggest no additional methane from boreal wetlands during the rapid Greenland Interstadial 21.2

Using single-forcing GCM simulations to reconstruct and interpret Quaternary climate change

Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics (open access)

A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

Transition into a Hothouse World at the Permian–Triassic boundary—A model study

Climate change with elevation and its potential impact on water resources in the tianshan mountains, central Asia

Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century

The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan heat low and its impact on the West African climate (open access)

Impacts of urbanization on future climate in China

Velocity of temperature and flowering time in wheat – Assisting breeders to keep pace with climate change

Rapid warming in the Tibetan Plateau from observations and CMIP5 models in recent decades

Observed trend of diurnal temperature range in the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades

High spatial and temporal organization of changes in precipitation over Germany for 1951–2006

Loss of thermal refugia near equatorial range limits

A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 30, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 30, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Southern Ocean buoyancy forcing of ocean ventilation and glacial atmospheric CO2

Projected changes to Tasman Sea eddies in a future climate

Organic carbon remobilized from thawing permafrost is re-sequestered by reactive iron on the Eurasian Arctic Shelf

Sensitivity of Soil Water Availability to Changing Snowmelt Timing in the Western U.S.

Contribution of increased Agulhas leakage to tropical Atlantic warming

Simulation of black carbon in snow and its climate impact in the Canadian Global Climate Model (open access)

CryoSat-2 delivers monthly and inter-annual surface elevation change for Arctic ice caps (open access)

To what extent could functional diversity be a useful tool in inferring ecosystem responses to past climate changes?

The impact of Indonesian peatland degradation on downstream marine ecosystems and the global carbon cycle

The complementarity and comparability of climate change adaptation and mitigation

Forest Biogeochemistry in Response to Drought

Reframing adaptation: The political nature of climate change adaptation

China’s air pollution reduction efforts may result in an increase in surface ozone levels in highly polluted areas

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

Power to change: Analysis of household participation in a renewable energy and energy efficiency programme in Central Australia

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 25, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 25, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists (open access)

Ice-core records of biomass burning

Recent decadal trends in global phytoplankton composition

Measuring glacier surface temperatures with ground-based thermal infrared imaging

Direct aerosol effects during periods of solar dimming and brightening hidden in the regression residuals: evidence from Potsdam measurements

Satellite observations of changes in snow-covered land surface albedo during spring in the Northern Hemisphere (open access)

Astronomical calibration of the geological timescale: closing the middle Eocene gap (open access)

Ice sheet mass loss caused by dust and black carbon accumulation (open access)

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

Recent climatic changes in Romania from observational data (1961–2013)

Cyclones and their possible changes in the Arctic by the end of the twenty first century from regional climate model simulations

Communicating climate change: conduits, content, and consensus

Is supplementary feeding in gardens a driver of evolutionary change in a migratory bird species? (open access)

Agriculture and the threat to biodiversity in sub-saharan africa (open access)

The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation

Summertime atmosphere–ocean preconditionings for the Bering Sea ice retreat and the following severe winters in North America (open access)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

On Volkswagen’s emissions

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 24, 2015


Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation | 1 Comment »

New research, September 22, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 22, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Modern glacier velocities across the Icefield Ranges, St Elias Mountains, and variability at selected glaciers from 1959 to 2012

Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century

Ice thickness measurements and volume estimates for glaciers in Norway

Direct measurements of World Ocean tidal currents with surface drifters

Observational evidence of strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation since 1980

Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

The Influence of Sea Ice Dynamics on the Climate Sensitivity and Memory to Increased Antarctic Sea Ice

ENSO-like Variability: 1900-2013

Coordinated Global and Regional Climate Modelling

Coupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost–ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle (open access)

Building a sustained climate assessment process

Relationships between maximum temperature and heat-related illness across North Carolina, USA

The effect of temperature on arson incidence in Toronto, Ontario, Canada

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

Warmer, deeper and greener mixed layers in the north Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years

Ships’ logbooks from the Arctic in the pre-instrumental period (open access)

Summertime atmosphere–ocean preconditionings for the Bering Sea ice retreat and the following severe winters in North America (open access)

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 18, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 18, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover

The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science (open access)

Re-examining the relationship between climate sensitivity and the Southern Hemisphere radiation budget in CMIP models

Trends and Spatial Variability in Dry Spells Across the South-Central United States

A millennial summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern Canada using oxygen isotopes in subfossil trees (open access)

Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Loess Plateau (China) during 1960–2013 under global warming

Evidence of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the magnetic properties of Alpine lakes during the last 2500 years

Debunking the climate hiatus (open access)

Private diaries as information sources in climate research

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation

Limits to the quantification of local climate change (open access)

Environmental implications of perfluorotributylamine—a potent greenhouse gas

Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 14, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 14, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Eurasian winter cooling in the warming hiatus of 1998–2012

Noble gases trace Greenland’s surface and submarine melt in the ocean

Observations of the Summer Breakup of an Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Sea ice convergence along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: Variability and extremes (1992–2014)

Climatic consequences of a Pine Island Glacier collapse

Fatalities in the United States Indirectly Associated with Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Atmospheric impact of Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation

Drought Adaptation and Climate Change Beliefs Amongst Working Ranchers in Montana

Linear trends and closures of 10-year observations of AIRS stratospheric channels

Impact of Holocene climate variability on Arctic vegetation

Why does precipitation in northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010?

Adapting to climate change in shifting landscapes of belief

Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes (open access)

The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change (open access)

How you talk about climate change matters: A communication network perspective on epistemic skepticism and belief strength

Biomass sustainability criteria: Greenhouse gas accounting issues for biogas and biomethane facilities

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 9, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 9, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

How well must climate models agree with observations? (open access)

Environment and Climate of Early Human Evolution

Global Monsoon Dynamics and Climate Change

Oceanic Forcing of Ice-Sheet Retreat: West Antarctica and More

Disentangling the contribution of multiple land covers to fires-mediated carbon emissions in Amazonia during the 2010 drought

Anomalous carbon uptake in Australia as seen by GOSAT

A Theory for Bjerknes Compensation: The Role of Climate Feedback

XBT Science: assessment of instrumental biases and errors

Black carbon concentrations and mixing state in the Finnish Arctic (open access)

Evolution of Ossoue Glacier (French Pyrenees) since the end of the Little Ice Age (open access)

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 3: Analysis and interpretation of trends (open access)

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models (open access)

Modeling climate change impact on potato crop phenology, and risk of frost damage and heat stress in northern Europe

How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing? (open access)

Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis (open access)

A model based investigation of the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, nitrogen deposition and land use change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the historical period

Causes of drying trends in northern hemispheric land areas in reconstructed soil moisture data (open access)

Sustainable domestic lighting options for poor people—an empirical study

Climate constraints on the carbon intensity of economic growth (open access)

Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions (open access)

Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends (open access)

Decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation main cause of future west European summer atmospheric circulation changes (open access)

Diversity enhances carbon storage in tropical forests

Effects of ocean acidification on Posidonia oceanica epiphytic community and shoot productivity

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, September 5, 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 5, 2015

Some new papers from last few days:

Dramatically increased rate of observed hot record-breaking in recent Australian temperatures

Ice thickness in the Northwest Passage

Positive tropical marine low-cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud-controlling factors

Evidence for Weakening of the Walker Circulation from Cloud Observations

Positive feedback in climate: stabilization or runaway, illustrated by a simple experiment

Need for Caution in Interpreting Extreme Weather Statistics

Quantifying the resolution level where the GRACE satellites can separate Greenland’s glacial mass balance from surface mass balance (open access)

Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates (open access)

Is there a solar signal in lower stratospheric water vapour? (open access)

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses (open access)

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections (open access)

Using historical climate observations to understand future climate change crop yield impacts in the Southeastern US

Scientific advocacy, environmental interest groups, and climate change: are climate skeptic portrayals of climate scientists as biased accurate?

Impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

Exploring the economic case for climate action in cities

Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost (open access)

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization (open access)

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

New research – August 2015

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 1, 2015

Below are some new climate related papers from August 2015. They are not ordered by subject but roughly by publication time.

Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion

More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?

Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth System model

Investigating the recent apparent hiatus in surface temperature increases: Part 1. Construction of two 30-member Earth System Model ensembles

Influence of ice thickness and surface properties on light transmission through Arctic sea ice

Sea surface temperature warming patterns and future vegetation change

Modelling annual mass balances of eight Scandinavian glaciers using statistical models (open access)

The mechanisms of North Atlantic CO2 uptake in a large Earth System Model ensemble (open access)

Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport (open access)

Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: Estimates of present and future conditions

NDVI-based vegetation responses to climate change in an arid area of China

Trophic mismatch and its effects on the growth of young in an Arctic herbivore

Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs

Scholarly motivations to conduct interdisciplinary climate change research

Glacial fluctuations since the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ at Rothera Point (western Antarctic Peninsula)

Response of Atlantic Overturning to Future Warming in a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Sheet Model

Submarine permafrost depth from ambient seismic noise

Solar influences on spatial patterns of Eurasian winter temperature and atmospheric general circulation anomalies

Detection of recent regional sea surface temperature warming in the Caribbean and surrounding region

State of the Climate in 2014

Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss

A New Estimation of Urbanization’s Contribution to the Warming Trend in China

How has subtropical stratocumulus and associated meteorology changed since the 1980s?

Area, elevation and mass changes of the two southernmost ice caps of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago between 1952 and 2014 (open access)

Probing the past 30-year phenology trend of US deciduous forests (open access)

Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions (open access)

A collection of sub-daily pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period with a focus on the “year without a summer” 1816 (open access)

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions (open access)

Climatology and changes in cloud cover in the area of the Black, Caspian, and Aral seas (1991–2010): a comparison of surface observations with satellite and reanalysis products

Why is the Bay of Bengal experiencing a reduced rate of sea surface warming?

Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern US in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation (open access)

Change points of global temperature (open access)

New satellite climate data records indicate strong coupling between recent frozen season changes and snow cover over high northern latitudes (open access)

Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss (open access)

Inventory and recent changes of small glaciers on the northeast margin of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, Argentina

New long-term mass-balance series for the Swiss Alps

Expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell in response to greenhouse gas forcing

Climate Variability and Change since 850 C.E.: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

A Global Repository for Planet-Sized Experiments and Observations

Mass loss and imbalance of glaciers along the Andes Cordillera to the sub-Antarctic islands

Improved surface temperature estimates with MASTER/AVIRIS sensor fusion

Permafrost or seasonal frost? A review of paleoclimate proxies of the last glacial cycle in the East Central European lowlands

A processing system to monitor Greenland outlet glacier velocity variations at decadal and seasonal time scales utilizing the Landsat imagery

Estimating the onset of spring from a complex phenology database: trade-offs across geographic scales

Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

The spiritual significance of glaciers in an age of climate change

Carbon emissions reduction in China’s food industry

A global synthesis of the effects of biological invasions on greenhouse gas emissions

On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty

Increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the upper atmosphere observed by SABER

Low-cloud characteristics over the tropical western Pacific from ARM observations and CAM5 simulations

The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: Why the “wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier” scaling does not hold over land

Air-Mass Origin in the Arctic. Part II: Response to Increases in Greenhouse Gases

How Well Do the CMIP5 Models Simulate the Antarctic Atmospheric Energy Budget?

Melt pond fraction and spectral sea ice albedo retrieval from MERIS data – Part 2: Case studies and trends of sea ice albedo and melt ponds in the Arctic for years 2002–2011 (open access)

The match and mismatch between photosynthesis and land surface phenology of deciduous forests

How will climate change affect explosive cyclones in the extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere?

Recent trend analysis of mean air temperature in Greece based on homogenized data

Impact of urbanization on US surface climate (open access)

The impact of weather changes on air quality and health in the United States in 1994–2012 (open access)

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years

First observations, trends and emissions of HCFC-31 (CH2ClF) in the global atmosphere

A Comparison of Temperature and Precipitation Responses to Different Earth Radiation Management Geoengineering Schemes

Anomalous behavior of Indian summer monsoon in the warming environment

Responses of wheat and rice to factorial combinations of ambient and elevated CO2 and temperature in FACE experiments

Net ecosystem exchange of CO2 with rapidly changing high Arctic landscapes

Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100 (open access)

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet? (open access)

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe? (open access)

Mixed-phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

Grounding line retreat of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica, 1996 to 2013

On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century

Trends of ice breakup date in south-central Ontario

Sensitivity of radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake and climate feedbacks to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014

Fluxes and fate of dissolved methane released at the seafloor at the landward limit of the gas hydrate stability zone offshore western Svalbard

Improving Arctic sea ice prediction using PIOMAS initial sea ice thickness in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A new method of comparing forcing agents in climate models

Deep ocean temperature measurement with an uncertainty of 0.7 mK

Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence (open access)

Retrieving the paleoclimatic signal from the deeper part of the EPICA Dome C ice core (open access)

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate (open access)

Glacier changes and related glacial lake expansion in the Bhutan Himalaya, 1990–2010

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms? (open access)

Learning from mistakes in climate research (open access)

How do young people engage with climate change? The role of knowledge, values, message framing, and trusted communicators

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to North European spring ecosystems

Facing unprecedented drying of the Central Andes? Precipitation variability over the period AD 1000–2100 (open access)

Net exchanges of methane and carbon dioxide on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2100 (open access)

Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies (poen access)

The Arctic and Polar cells act on the Arctic sea ice variation (open access)

Orbitally forced ice sheet fluctuations during the Marinoan Snowball Earth glaciation

Recent contrasting winter temperature changes over North America linked to enhanced positive Pacific North American pattern

Atmospheric responses to the redistribution of anthropogenic aerosols

Subglacial water drainage, storage, and piracy beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet

Increased influence of nitrogen limitation on CO2 emissions from future land use and land-use change

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions and the extremely low Bothnian Bay sea ice extent in 2014/15

Reassessment and update of long-term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over Europe (1939-2012)

Robust warming pattern of global subtropical oceans and its mechanism

Quantifying climate forcings and feedbacks over the last millennium in the CMIP5/PMIP3 models

Water Under a Changing and Uncertain Climate: Lessons from Climate Model Ensembles

The sea-level response to external forcings in historical simulations of CMIP5 climate models

Separating internal variability from the externally forced climate response

Environmental drivers of drought deciduous phenology in the Community Land Model (open access)

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009 (open access)

Methane exchange in a poorly-drained black spruce forest over permafrost observed using the eddy covariance technique

Contrasting responses of gross primary productivity to precipitation events in a water-limited and a temperature-limited grassland ecosystem

Evidence linking satellite-derived sea-surface temperature signals to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Threshold of the volcanic forcing that leads the El Niño-like warming in the last millennium: results from the ERIK simulation

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change (open access)

Recent temperature variability and change in the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru

Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions (open access)

Biosphere–atmosphere exchange of methane in India as influenced by multiple environmental changes during 1901–2010

The potential for reducing China’s carbon dioxide emissions: Role of foreign-invested enterprises

Is anthropogenic sea level fingerprint already detectable in the Pacific Ocean? (open access)

Assessing carbon lock-in (open access)

Foregone carbon sequestration due to land occupation—the case of agro-bioenergy in Finland

Climate change-associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia

Soil carbon storage controlled by interactions between geochemistry and climate

Estimates of volcanic-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,500 years

Responses of carbon uptake and oceanic pCO2 to climate change in the North Atlantic: A model study with the Bergen Earth System Model

Tornadoes, Social Science, and the False Alarm Effect

Physical Mechanisms of Tropical Climate Feedbacks Investigated using Temperature and Moisture Trends

Improving Arctic sea ice edge forecasts by assimilating high horizontal resolution sea ice concentration data into the US Navy’s ice forecast systems (open access)

Assessing biodiversity vulnerability to climate change: testing different methodologies for Portuguese herpetofauna

The climate responsibilities of industrial carbon producers (open access)

Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming (open access)

On judging the credibility of climate predictions (open access)

The language of denial: text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics

Contrasting regional versus global radiative forcing by megacity pollution emissions

The political economy of passing climate change legislation: Evidence from a survey

Climate change beliefs and perceptions of agricultural risks: An application of the exchangeability method

Posted in Climate science | Leave a Comment »


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