AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New research – climate change impacts on mankind (July 28, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 28, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on mankind are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change (Mitchell et al. 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006/meta

Abstract: It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ~70% and by ~20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ~315 and ~735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

Climate change and migration in the Pacific: options for Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands (Constable, 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1004-5

Abstract: As climate change impacts, particularly rising sea levels, manifest there is a high probability that some island populations will be faced with the need to relocate. This article discusses several discourses around migration options for people affected by climate change impacts in small island developing states. Options currently available to citizens of the Pacific nations of Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are explored, including the perspective that high levels of customary land tenure in the Pacific are a barrier to permanent movement to other Pacific countries. Migration to Pacific Rim countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the USA is complicated by strict migration eligibility criteria, which often require proof of language abilities and income, and may restrict the number of accompanying dependants. The Compact of Free Association provides visa-free entry to the USA for citizens of the Marshall Islands, but the lack of financial assistance restricts eligibility to those with existing financial resources or family networks that can provide access to capital. The difficulty of directly attributing single weather/climate events to climate change hinders the formulation of a definition of climate change-related migration. This obstacle in turn hinders the establishment of effective visa categories and migration routes for what is likely to become a growing number of people in coming decades.

Rural drinking water issues in India’s drought-prone area: a case of Maharashtra state (Udmale et al. 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074013/meta

Abstract: Obtaining sufficient drinking water with acceptable quality under circumstances of lack, such as droughts, is a challenge in drought-prone areas of India. This study examined rural drinking water availability issues during a recent drought (2012) through 22 focus group discussions (FGDs) in a drought-prone catchment of India. Also, a small chemical water quality study was undertaken to evaluate the suitability of water for drinking purpose based on Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The drought that began in 2011 and further deteriorated water supplies in 2012 caused a rapid decline in reservoir storages and groundwater levels that led, in turn, to the failure of the public water supply systems in the Upper Bhima Catchment. Dried up and low-yield dug wells and borewells, tanker water deliveries from remote sources, untimely water deliveries, and degraded water quality were the major problems identified in the FGDs. In addition to severe drinking water scarcity during drought, the quality of the drinking water was found to be a major problem, and it apparently was neglected by local governments and users. Severe contamination of the drinking water with nitrate-nitrogen, ammonium-nitrogen, and chlorides was found in the analyzed drinking water samples. Hence, in addition to the water scarcity, the results of this study point to an immediate need to investigate the problem of contaminated drinking water sources while designing relief measures for drought-prone areas of India.

Climate change impacts on European agriculture revisited: adding the economic dimension of grasslands (Aghajanzadeh-Darzi et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1018-z

Abstract: Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Collapse of Lowland Maya Civilization (Douglas et al. 2016)
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012512

Abstract: Paleoclimatologists have discovered abundant evidence that droughts coincided with collapse of the Lowland Classic Maya civilization, and some argue that climate change contributed to societal disintegration. Many archaeologists, however, maintain that drought cannot explain the timing or complex nature of societal changes at the end of the Classic Period, between the eighth and eleventh centuries ce. This review presents a compilation of climate proxy data indicating that droughts in the ninth to eleventh century were the most severe and frequent in Maya prehistory. Comparison with recent archaeological evidence, however, indicates an earlier beginning for complex economic and political processes that led to the disintegration of states in the southern region of the Maya lowlands that precedes major droughts. Nonetheless, drought clearly contributed to the unusual severity of the Classic Maya collapse, and helped to inhibit the type of recovery seen in earlier periods of Maya prehistory. In the drier northern Maya Lowlands, a later political collapse at ca. 1000 ce appears to be related to ongoing extreme drought. Future interdisciplinary research should use more refined climatological and archaeological data to examine the relationship between climate and social processes throughout the entirety of Maya prehistory.

Other papers

Death from respiratory diseases and temperature in Shiraz, Iran (2006–2011) (Dadbakhsh et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1206-z

Food security in the face of climate change: Adaptive capacity of small-scale social-ecological systems to environmental variability (Pérez et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016301182

Precipitation Effects on Motor Vehicle Crashes Vary by Space, Time and Environmental Conditions (Tamerius et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0009.1

The potential for adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in Sub-Saharan livestock systems (de Jalón et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1026-z

Can Gridded Precipitation Data and Phenological Observations Reduce Basis Risk of Weather Index-based Insurance? (Dalhaus et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0020.1

Sea surface temperature impacts on winter cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula (Capa-Morocho et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303045

Separating the effects of phenology and diffuse radiation on gross primary productivity in winter wheat (Williams et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003317/abstract

Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change (Cobon et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1732-z

Heat-related mortality: Effect modification and adaptation in Japan from 1972 to 2010 (Ng et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300656

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities (Antunes et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1196-x

Social and cultural issues raised by climate change in Pacific Island countries: an overview (Weir et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1012-5

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050 (Röös et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1013-4

“Climate change damages”, conceptualization of a legal notion with regard to reparation under international law (Kugler & Sariego, 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300213

Temperature deviation index and elderly mortality in Japan (Lim et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-015-1091-x

Climatic influence on corn sowing date in the Midwestern United States (Choi et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4799/abstract

New Zealand kiwifruit growers’ vulnerability to climate and other stressors (Cradock-Henry, 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1000-9

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine (Mosedale et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13406/abstract

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – temperature (July 26, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 26, 2016

Some of the latest papers on temperature are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate (Sévellec, Sinha & Skliris, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068950/abstract

Abstract: The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here, surface air temperature from twenty climate models is analysed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st Century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st Century and future re-occurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

Underestimated warming of northern Canada in the Berkeley Earth temperature product (Way, Oliva & Viau, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4808/abstract

Abstract: The Berkeley Earth surface temperature (BERK) project provides gridded global temperature anomaly products using an automated geostatistical approach to adjust station data for systematic biases. Despite its widespread usage, the BERK data set has not been evaluated at the national-scale, especially in data-sparse high latitude environments. This study provides an evaluation of the BERK product across all of Canada using 333 climate stations made available from the homogenized Environment Canada station network (HTcan). Comparison between co-located monthly air temperature anomalies for the two data sets suggests small differences between the two products for mean surface (∼2 m) air temperature. However, the relatively minimal bias in mean temperature is a consequence of contrasting cold and warm biases in minimum and maximum air temperatures, respectively, that are larger but effectively even out when averaged together. The BERK product is shown to exhibit systematic underestimation of recent regional warming in northern Canada which when combined with an overestimation of warmth earlier in the record results in an observable reduction in warming rates for minimum and mean temperature anomalies since 1950. The temporal evolution and spatial pattern of the observed biases suggest that the BERK-automated adjustments to station data in northern Canada miss some inhomogeneities in the raw station data. These results highlight the need for enhanced data recovery and homogenization efforts in data-sparse high latitude regions and emphasize the importance of national-scale climate data sets for evaluating global gridded products. We also recommend caution when using the BERK minimum and maximum monthly air temperature products for long-term trend analyses.

Revisiting whether recent surface temperature trends agree with the CMIP5 ensemble (Lin & Huybers, 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0123.1

Abstract: A weaker trend in global mean temperature over the past 15 years relative to the preceding decades has been characterized as significantly lower than those contained within the CMIP5 ensemble. In this study, divergence between model simulations and observations is estimated using a fixed-intercept linear trend with a slope estimator that has one-third the noise variance compared to simple linear regression. Following the approach of Fyfe et al. (2013) where inter-model spread is used to assess the distribution of trends, but using the fixed-intercept trend metric, demonstrates that recently observed trends in global-mean temperature are consistent (p > 0.1) with the CMIP5 ensemble for all 15-year intervals of observation-model divergence since 1970. Significant clustering of global trends according to modeling center indicates that the spread in CMIP5 trends is better characterized using ensemble members drawn across models, as opposed to using ensemble members from a single model. Despite model-observation consistency at the global level, substantial regional discrepancies in surface temperature trends remain.

Climate change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, during the last 50 years from meteorological observations (Marshall, Vignols & Rees, 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0179.1

Abstract: We provide a detailed climatology and evaluation of recent climate change in the Kola Peninsula, Arctic Russia, a region influenced by both the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The analysis is based on 50 years of monthly surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation (PPN) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from ten meteorological stations for 1966-2015. Regional mean annual SAT is ~0°C: the moderating effect of the ocean is such that coastal (inland) stations have a positive (negative) value. Examined mean annual PPN totals rise from ~430 mm in the north-east of the region to ~600 mm in the west.

Annual SAT in the Kola Peninsula has increased by 2.3 ± 1.0 °C over the past 50 years. Seasonally, statistically significant warming has taken place in spring and fall, although the largest trend has occurred in winter. While there has been no significant change in annual PPN, spring has become significantly wetter and fall drier. The former is associated with the only significant seasonal SLP trend (decrease). A positive winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is generally associated with a warmer and wetter Kola Peninsula while a positive Siberian High (SH) index has the opposite impact. The relationship between both the NAO and SH and SAT is broadly coherent across the region whereas their relationship with PPN varies markedly, although none of the relationships are temporally invariant. Reduced sea ice in the Barents and White Seas and associated circulation changes are likely to be the principal drivers behind the observed changes.

Water temperature increases in the river Rhine in response to climate change (Hardenbicker et al. 2016)
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1006-3

Abstract: The present study analyzes climate change effects on the water temperature of the Rhine, one of the largest rivers in Central Europe. Simulation calculations were performed based on a range of climate and river flow projections for the near (2021–2050) and for the far future (2071–2100) compared to a reference period (1961–1990). Changes in mean annual water temperature in the near future range between +0.6 and +1.4 °C and between +1.9 and +2.2 °C in the far future (average of nine stations). Monthly mean values of the far future change in a more differentiated way by +0.4 to +1.3 °C in spring and +2.7 to +3.4 °C in late summer. The length of periods of high water temperature, expressed as successive days with water temperatures over 27 °C, increases by a factor of four until 2100. These prolonged durations of periods with unusually high water temperatures may provoke changes in the food web and in the rates of biological processes in the Rhine.

Other papers

Assessing the uncertainty of CESM-LE in simulating the trends of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over China (Li, Zhu & Dong, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4837/abstract

Reconciling Observed and Modelled Temperature and Precipitation Trends over Europe by Adjusting for Circulation Variability (Saffioti et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069802/abstract

Geo-spatial analysis of temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over India using daily gridded (1°×1°) temperature data of 1969–2005 (Chakraborty et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1869-8

Sudden stratospheric warmings observed in the last decade by satellite measurements (Kishore et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302656

Longitudinal Asymmetric Trends of Tropical Cold-point Tropopause Temperature and Their Link to Strengthened Walker Circulation (Hu et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0851.1

An in situ-based analysis of the relationship between land surface ‘skin’ and screen-level air temperatures (Good, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025318/abstract

Spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature trends throughout the Brazilian Legal Amazon, 1973–2013 (Almeida et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4831/abstract

Spatial variation of deterministic chaos in mean daily temperature and rainfall over Nigeria (Fuwape et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1867-x

Homogenisation of temperature and precipitation time series with ACMANT3: method description and efficiency tests (Domonkos & Coll, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4822/abstract

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming (Kosaka & Xie, 2016)
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2770.html

The changing shape of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature distributions (McKinnon et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025292/abstract

Future Decreases in Freezing Days Across North America (Rawlins et al. 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0802.1

Arctic warming, moisture increase and circulation changes observed in the Ny-Ålesund homogenized radiosonde record (Maturilli & Kayser, 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1864-0

Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: recent trends and an update to 2013 (Feidas, 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1854-2

Urban Heat Island traverses in the City of Adelaide, South Australia (Clay et al. 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095516300293

Recent Extreme Arctic Temperatures are due to a Split Polar Vortex (Overland & Wang, 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1

Potential tropical Atlantic impacts on Pacific decadal climate trends (Chikamoto et al. 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069544/abstract

Consistent land surface temperature data generation from irregularly spaced Landsat imagery (Fu & Weng, 2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302565

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969–2012) (Kumar et al. 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1844-4

Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models (Smith & Polvani, 2016)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3230-4

From Urban to National Heat Island: the effect of anthropogenic heat output on climate change in high population industrial countries (Murray & Heggie, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000352/abstract

From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China (Xie, Huang & Liu, 2016)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4809/abstract

Weekly cycles in peak time temperatures and urban heat island intensity (Earl, Simmonds & Tapper, 2016)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074003/meta

Radiative and Dynamical Influences on Polar Stratospheric Temperature Trends (Ivy, Solomon & Rieder, 2016)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0503.1

Posted in AGW evidence, Climate claims, Climate science | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change mitigation (July 25, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 25, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change mitigation are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069563/abstract

Abstract: The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net −5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with −1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.

Productivity ranges of sustainable biomass potentials from non-agricultural land
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074026/meta

Abstract: Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha−1 a−1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha−1 a−1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

Understanding the nuclear controversy: An application of cultural theory
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303597

Abstract: The need for a secure and sustainable energy future has become firmly entrenched on the global political agenda. Governments worldwide are seeking solutions that will ensure security of their energy supplies, while reducing carbon emissions in the fight against climate change. Advocates of nuclear power have reframed the technology as the most reliable, cost-effective and immediate solution to both of these policy problems, and predicted the emergence of a ‘nuclear renaissance’. However, there is little evidence to date that suggests a nuclear renaissance has actually taken place. Public opinion polling demonstrates that many remain unconvinced of the need for nuclear power. This paper uses Cultural Theory as a heuristic to understand why the arguments for a nuclear renaissance have been largely unsuccessful. It argues that the failure of nuclear advocates to engage with a wider cross-section of world-views has prevented the controversy surrounding nuclear power from being resolved, and the nuclear renaissance from becoming a reality. In doing so, this paper builds upon a growing recognition of the contribution that social science research can make to understanding public acceptance of energy policy choices.

An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.423/abstract

Abstract: Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state-of-the-art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering.

Pacific Islanders’ understanding of climate change: Where do they source information and to what extent do they trust it?
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-1001-8

Abstract: The experience of environmental stress and attitudes towards climate change was explored for 1226 students at the University of the South Pacific, the foremost tertiary institution serving the independent nations of the Pacific. Students sourced information regarding climate change from media including television, radio, and newspapers; the community (typically via their village, church, and extended family); the University and their friends; and in addition to regional agencies such as the Pacific Community. Most students concluded that they could not believe all of the informations provided by these sources. The findings demonstrate that most students—the future elite of the region—rank global environmental change as the highest future risk. Although nearly all respondents believed that climate change was happening, more than half of respondents believed that the risk was exaggerated and only one-third believed that science would find an answer, suggesting a lack of trust in scientific sources of information. Results also showed that these attitudes varied across demographic factors such as age, region, and gender. The understanding of contemporary attitudes towards global environmental change among a cohort that is likely to include future national leaders in the Pacific Islands region presents unique opportunities for long-range planning of intervention and support strategies. Of particular note for effective intervention and support is the breadth and trustworthiness of various information sources including Pacific Island leaders.

Other papers

What are the limits to oil palm expansion?
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300814

Risks affecting the biofuels industry: A US and Canadian company perspective
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303561

Investigating biofuels through network analysis
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303536

Life cycle inventories of electricity supply through the lens of data quality: exploring challenges and opportunities
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11367-016-1163-0

Increasing beef production won’t reduce emissions
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13436/abstract

Health and climate benefits of offshore wind facilities in the Mid-Atlantic United States
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074019/meta

Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002/meta

An assessment of alternative carbon mitigation policies for achieving the emissions reduction of the Clean Power Plan: Case study for the state of Indiana
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303500

A retrospective analysis of benefits and impacts of U.S. renewable portfolio standards
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303408

Can climate policy enhance sustainability?
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1701-6

Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1700-7

REDD+ politics in the media: a case from Nepal
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1731-0

Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13423/abstract

The impact of different cooling strategies on urban air temperatures: the cases of Campinas, Brazil and Mendoza, Argentina
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1851-5

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1729-7

Unravelling the United Kingdom’s climate policy consensus: The power of ideas, discourse and institutions
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300863

Could artificial ocean alkalinization protect tropical coral ecosystems from ocean acidification?
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074008/meta

Impacts of sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070111/abstract

A comparative life cycle assessment of commercially available household silver-enabled polyester textiles
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11367-016-1145-2

Most promising flexible generators for the wind dominated market
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303421

Conflicts of economic interests by limiting global warming to +3 °C
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11027-016-9718-8

Reforestation in a high-CO2 world—Higher mitigation potential than expected, lower adaptation potential than hoped for
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068824/abstract

Fossil fuels, employment, and support for climate policies
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302828

China’s low-carbon transition for addressing climate change
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927816300120

Safety and effective developing nuclear power to realize green and low-carbon development
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927816300168

Coping with climate change and China’s wind energy sustainable development
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927816300272

Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801630067X

An analysis of Chinese provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiencies based on energy consumption structure
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303202

The Hinkley Point decision: An analysis of the policy process
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303044

Implicit CO2 prices of fossil fuel use in Switzerland
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303056

Could more civil society involvement increase public support for climate policy-making? Evidence from a survey experiment in China
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300759

Understanding perceptions of changing hurricane strength along the US Gulf coast
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4805/abstract

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on cryosphere (July 23, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 23, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on cryosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2751.html

Abstract: Antarctic sea-ice extent has been slowly increasing in the satellite record that began in 1979. Since the late 1990s, the increase has accelerated, but the average of all climate models shows a decline. Meanwhile, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an internally generated mode of climate variability, transitioned from positive to negative, with an average cooling of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, a slowdown of the global warming trend and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low near Antarctica that has contributed to regional circulation changes in the Ross Sea region and expansion of sea ice. Here we show that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in global coupled climate models is characterized by anomalies similar to the observed sea-level pressure and near-surface 850 hPa wind changes near Antarctica since 2000 that are conducive to expanding Antarctic sea-ice extent, particularly in the Ross Sea region in all seasons, involving a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low. These atmospheric circulation changes are shown to be mainly driven by precipitation and convective heating anomalies related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in the equatorial eastern Pacific, with additional contributions from convective heating anomalies in the South Pacific convergence zone and tropical Atlantic regions.

Million year old ice found under meter thick debris layer in Antarctica
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069889/abstract

Abstract: Cosmogenic nuclide measurements associated with buried glacier ice in Ong Valley, in the Transantarctic Mountains, suggest the preservation of ancient ice. There are three glacial tills on the valley floor which have formed from the concentration of regolith contained within sublimating glacier ice. Two tills are less than 1 m thick and underlain by ice. Measurements of cosmogenic 10Be, 26Al, and 21Ne show that (i) the youngest buried ice unit and corresponding till are at least 11–13 ka, (ii) another ice unit and corresponding intermediate-age till are at least 1.1 Ma old under any circumstances and most likely older than 1.78 Ma, and (iii) the oldest till is at least 1.57 Ma and most likely greater than 2.63 Ma. These observations highlight the longevity of ice under thin debris layers and the potential to sample ancient ice for paleoclimate/paleoatmosphere information close to the present land surface.

Accelerating retreat and high-elevation thinning of glaciers in central Spitsbergen
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1317/2016/

Abstract: Svalbard is a heavily glacier-covered archipelago in the Arctic. Dickson Land (DL), in the central part of the largest island, Spitsbergen, is relatively arid and, as a result, glaciers there are relatively small and restricted mostly to valleys and cirques. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of glacier changes in DL based on inventories compiled from topographic maps and digital elevation models for the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum, the 1960s, 1990, and 2009/2011. Total glacier area has decreased by  ∼ 38 % since the LIA maximum, and front retreat increased over the study period. Recently, most of the local glaciers have been consistently thinning in all elevation bands, in contrast to larger Svalbard ice masses which remain closer to balance. The mean 1990–2009/2011 geodetic mass balance of glaciers in DL is among the most negative from the Svalbard regional means known from the literature.

The Andes Cordillera. Part I: snow distribution, properties, and trends (1979–2014)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4804/abstract

Abstract: Snow cover presence, duration, properties, and water amount play a major role in Earth’s climate system through its impact on the surface energy budget. Snow cover conditions and trends (1979–2014) were simulated for South America – for the entire Andes Cordillera. Recent data sets and SnowModel developments allow relatively high-resolutions of 3-h time step and 4-km horizontal grid increment for this domain. US Geological Survey’s Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 topography, Global Land Cover (GlobCover), Randolph Glacier Inventory (v. 4.0) glacier, and NASA modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications data sets were used to simulate first-order atmospheric forcing (e.g. near-surface air temperature and precipitation, including the fraction of precipitation falling as snow) and terrestrial snow characteristics (e.g. snow cover days, snow water equivalent depth, and snow density). Simulated snow conditions were verified against moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer-derived snow cover extent and 3064 individual direct observations of snow depths. Regional variability in mean annual air temperature occurred: positive trends in general were seen in the high Andes Cordillera, and negative trends at relatively lower elevations both east and west of the Cordillera. Snow precipitation showed more heterogeneous patterns than air temperature due to the influence from atmospheric conditions, topography, and orography. Overall, for the Cordillera, much of the area north of 23°S had a decrease in the number of snow cover days, while the southern half experienced the opposite. The snow cover extent changed ∼−15% during the simulation period, mostly between the elevations of ∼3000 and 5000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). However, below 1000 m a.s.l. (in Patagonia) the snow cover extent increased. The snow properties varied over short distances both along and across the Andes Cordillera.

Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003–2012)
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1259/2016/

Abstract: Improving the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and ice sheet models (ISMs) to simulate spatiotemporal variations in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is crucial for prediction of future sea level rise. While several studies have examined recent trends in GrIS mass loss, studies focusing on mass variations at sub-annual and sub-basin-wide scales are still lacking. At these scales, processes responsible for mass change are less well understood and modeled, and could potentially play an important role in future GrIS mass change. Here, we examine spatiotemporal variations in mass over the GrIS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites for the January 2003–December 2012 period using a “mascon” approach, with a nominal spatial resolution of 100 km, and a temporal resolution of 10 days. We compare GRACE-estimated mass variations against those simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM and the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). In order to properly compare spatial and temporal variations in GrIS mass from GRACE with model outputs, we find it necessary to spatially and temporally filter model results to reproduce leakage of mass inherent in the GRACE solution. Both modeled and satellite-derived results point to a decline (of −178.9 ± 4.4 and −239.4 ± 7.7 Gt yr−1 respectively) in GrIS mass over the period examined, but the models appear to underestimate the rate of mass loss, especially in areas below 2000 m in elevation, where the majority of recent GrIS mass loss is occurring. On an ice-sheet-wide scale, the timing of the modeled seasonal cycle of cumulative mass (driven by summer mass loss) agrees with the GRACE-derived seasonal cycle, within limits of uncertainty from the GRACE solution. However, on sub-ice-sheet-wide scales, some areas exhibit significant differences in the timing of peaks in the annual cycle of mass change. At these scales, model biases, or processes not accounted for by models related to ice dynamics or hydrology, may lead to the observed differences. This highlights the need for further evaluation of modeled processes at regional and seasonal scales, and further study of ice sheet processes not accounted for, such as the role of subglacial hydrology in variations in glacial flow.

Other papers

The effects of Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution in a global climate model
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011835/abstract

Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2740.html

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) in Greenland: a Review
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs40641-016-0040-z

Long-term changes of glaciers in north-western Spitsbergen
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301084

Twelve-year cyclic surging episodes at Donjek Glacier in Yukon, Canada
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1427/2016/

Glacier melting and precipitation trends detected by surface area changes in Himalayan ponds
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1433/2016/

Effects of sources, transport and post-depositional processes on levoglucosan records in southeastern Tibetan glaciers
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024904/abstract

A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301023

Interaction of sea ice floe size, ocean eddies and sea ice melting
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069742/abstract

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074022/meta

Predictability of Arctic annual minimum sea ice patterns
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0102.1

Changes in summer sea ice, albedo, and portioning of surface solar radiation in the Pacific sector of Arctic Ocean during 1982-2009
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011831/abstract

Patterns of Sea-Ice Retreat in the Transition to a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0733.1

Sea ice leads in the Arctic Ocean: Model assessment, interannual variability and trends
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068696/abstract

Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024679/abstract

The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0651.1

The Role of Springtime Arctic Clouds in Determining Autumn Sea Ice Extent
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0136.1

Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025164/abstract

Water-mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the Southern Ocean overturning
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2749.html

A review of recent changes in Southern Ocean sea ice, their drivers and forcings
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116300364

About the consistency between Envisat and CryoSat-2 radar freeboard retrieval over Antarctic sea ice
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1415/2016/

Monitoring surface deformation over permafrost with an improved SBAS-InSAR algorithm: With emphasis on climatic factors modeling
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302760

Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-earth-060614-105126

Carbon loss and chemical changes from permafrost collapse in the northern Tibetan Plateau
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JG003235/abstract

The Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Snowpack and the Hydrology of the Northeastern and Upper Midwest, U.S.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0632.1

Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068520/abstract

Effect of snow grain shape on snow albedo
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0276.1

The Andes Cordillera. Part II: Rio Olivares Basin snow conditions (1979–2014), central Chile
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4828/abstract

Design of a scanning laser meter for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of snow depth and its application in the Alps and in Antarctica
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1495/2016/

Decreasing Spatial Dependence in Extreme Snowfall in the French Alps since 1958 under Climate Change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025427/abstract

A snow climatology of the Andes Mountains from MODIS snow cover data
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4795/abstract

Spatiotemporal Snowfall Variability in the Lake Michigan Region: How is Warming Affecting Wintertime Snowfall?
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0285.1

Posted in Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research – climate change impacts on biosphere (July 22, 2016)

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 22, 2016

Some of the latest papers on climate change impacts on biosphere are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers – they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones.

Highlights

Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13404/abstract

Abstract: Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world’s last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world’s major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity.

Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074021/meta

Abstract: The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ~16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June–July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

Air pollutants degrade floral scents and increase insect foraging times
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231016305210

Abstract: Flowers emit mixtures of scents that mediate plant-insect interactions such as attracting insect pollinators. Because of their volatile nature, however, floral scents readily react with ozone, nitrate radical, and hydroxyl radical. The result of such reactions is the degradation and the chemical modification of scent plumes downwind of floral sources. Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are developed to investigate dispersion and chemical degradation and modification of floral scents due to reactions with ozone, hydroxyl radical, and nitrate radical within the atmospheric surface layer. Impacts on foraging insects are investigated by utilizing a random walk model to simulate insect search behavior. Results indicate that even moderate air pollutant levels (e.g., ozone mixing ratios greater than 60 parts per billion on a per volume basis, ppbv) substantially degrade floral volatiles and alter the chemical composition of released floral scents. As a result, insect success rates of locating plumes of floral scents were reduced and foraging times increased in polluted air masses due to considerable degradation and changes in the composition of floral scents. Results also indicate that plant-pollinator interactions could be sensitive to changes in floral scent composition, especially if insects are unable to adapt to the modified scentscape. The increase in foraging time could have severe cascading and pernicious impacts on the fitness of foraging insects by reducing the time devoted to other necessary tasks.

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12645/abstract

Abstract: Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species’ responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated.

Climate adaptation is not enough: warming does not facilitate success of southern tundra plant populations in the high Arctic
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13417/abstract

Abstract: Rapidly rising temperatures are expected to cause latitudinal and elevational range shifts as species track their optimal climate north and upward. However, a lack of adaptation to environmental conditions other than climate – for example photoperiod, biotic interactions, or edaphic conditions – might limit the success of immigrants in a new location despite hospitable climatic conditions. Here we present one of the first direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that warmer temperatures at northern latitudes will confer a fitness advantage to southern immigrants relative to native populations. As rates of warming in the Arctic are more than double the global average, understanding the impacts of warming in Arctic ecosystems is especially urgent. We established experimentally warmed and non-warmed common garden plots at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic with seeds of two forb species (Oxyria digyna and Papaver radicatum) originating from 3-5 populations at different latitudes across the Arctic. We found that plants from the local populations generally had higher survival and obtained a greater maximum size than foreign individuals, regardless of warming treatment. Phenological traits varied with latitude of the source population, such that southern populations demonstrated substantially delayed leaf-out and senescence relative to northern populations. Our results suggest that environmental conditions other than temperature may influence the ability of foreign populations and species to establish at more northerly latitudes as the climate warms, potentially leading to lags in northward range shifts for some species.

Short-term climate change manipulation effects do not scale up to long-term legacies: Effects of an absent snow cover on boreal forest plants
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12636/abstract

Abstract: 1.Despite time lags and non-linearity in ecological processes, the majority of our knowledge about ecosystem responses to long-term changes in climate originates from relatively short-term experiments.

2.We utilized the longest ongoing snow removal experiment in the world and an additional set of new plots at the same location in northern Sweden to simultaneously measure the effects of long-term (11 winters) and short-term (1 winter) absence of snow cover on boreal forest understorey plants, including effects on root growth and phenology.

3.Short-term absence of snow reduced vascular plant cover in the understorey by 42%, reduced fine root biomass by 16%, reduced shoot growth by up to 53%, and induced tissue damage on two common dwarf shrubs. In the long-term manipulation, more substantial effects on understorey plant cover (92% reduced) and standing fine root biomass (39% reduced) were observed, whereas other response parameters, such as tissue damage, were observed less. Fine root growth was generally reduced, and its initiation delayed by c. 3 (short-term) to 6 weeks (long-term manipulation).

4.Synthesis We show that one extreme winter with a reduced snow cover can already induce ecologically significant alterations. We also show that long-term changes were smaller than suggested by an extrapolation of short-term manipulation results (using a constant proportional decline). In addition, some of those negative responses, such as frost damage and shoot growth, were even absolutely stronger in the short-term compared to the long-term manipulation. This suggests adaptation or survival of only those individuals that are able to cope with these extreme winter conditions, and that the short-term manipulation alone would over-predict long-term impacts. These results highlight both the ecological importance of snow cover in this boreal forest, and the value of combining short- and long-term experiments side by side in climate change research.

Other papers

Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12650/abstract

An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13440/abstract

A risk-benefit model to simulate vegetation spring onset in response to multi-decadal climate variability: Theoretical basis and applications from the field to the Northern Hemisphere
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303148

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13435/abstract

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13437/abstract

Effects of permafrost thaw on nitrogen availability and plant-soil interactions in a boreal Alaskan lowland
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12639/abstract

Explaining inter-annual variability of gross primary productivity from plant phenology and physiology
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316303070

Realized climate niche breadth varies with population trend and distribution in North American birds
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12490/abstract

Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13429/abstract

Multiple cues influence multiple traits in the phenotypically plastic melanization of the cabbage white butterfly
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3694-2

Richer histories for more relevant policies: 42 years of tree cover loss and gain in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13434/abstract

Tracking the long-term responses of diatoms and cladocerans to climate warming and human influences across lakes of the Ring of Fire in the Far North of Ontario, Canada
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10933-016-9901-7

Exposure to a heat wave under food limitation makes an agricultural insecticide lethal: a mechanistic laboratory experiment
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13415/abstract

Assessing European ecosystem stability to drought in the vegetation growing season
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12472/abstract

Phosphorus feedbacks may constrain tropical ecosystem responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069241/abstract

Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3533/2016/

Earth science data records of global forest cover and change: Assessment of accuracy in 1990, 2000, and 2005 epochs
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302498

Climate change: consequences on the pollination of grasses in Perugia (Central Italy). A 33-year-long study
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1198-8

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13410/abstract

Advanced long-term bird banding and climate data mining in spring confirm passerine population declines for the Northeast Chinese-Russian flyway
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116300418

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13375/abstract

Fern species richness and abundance are indicators of climate change on high-elevation islands: evidence from an elevational gradient on Tahiti (French Polynesia)
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1734-x

Achieving climate connectivity in a fragmented landscape
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/26/7195.short

Global change and ecosystem connectivity: How geese link fields of central Europe to eutrophication of Arctic freshwaters
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13280-016-0802-9

Herbivory and nutrient limitation protect warming tundra from lowland species’ invasion and diversity loss
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13397/abstract

Impacts of warming and elevated CO2 on a semi-arid grassland are non-additive, shift with precipitation, and reverse over time
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12634/abstract

Changes in Sahelian annual vegetation growth and phenology since 1960: A modeling approach
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301570

Growth and carbon relations of mature Picea abies trees under five years of free air CO2 enrichment
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12621/abstract

Assessment and prediction of the first-flowering dates for the major fruit trees in Korea using a multi-RCM ensemble
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4800/abstract

Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-015-1086-7

Infection risk decreases with increasing mismatch in host and pathogen environmental tolerances
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.12641/abstract

Heat resistance throughout ontogeny: body size constrains thermal tolerance
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13407/abstract

Increased autumn rainfall disrupts predator-prey interactions in fragmented boreal forests
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13408/abstract

Bivalve aquaculture-environment interactions in the context of climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13346/abstract

Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12474/abstract

Posted in Global warming effects | 2 Comments »

New page in AGW Observer: New research

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on July 3, 2016

I have added a new page to the site. The page shows the latest research papers divided to different subjects. Later on there will be archive pages for each subject. The new papers in the new research front page will be occasionally gathered to a blog posts by subject, and after the post has been published the papers in question will be moved to the archive pages. This way the new research front page only shows the latest papers and you can check the older papers from the archive. I’m also going to add the papers from the old new research posts (from this date to the beginning of the feature in 2010) to the archive pages, but this will take quite a lot of time.

The new page will be updated quite frequently so if you don’t want to wait for the blog posts containing the new papers on each subject, you might want to check the new research page regularly.

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New research, June 17, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 17, 2016

After this, there will be a few weeks break in these posts. New research posts will then resume possibly in a new form – stay tuned.

Some new papers from last few days:

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1659-4

Threshold Sensitivity of Shallow Arctic Lakes and Sub-lake Permafrost to Changing Winter Climate
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068506/abstract

Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GB005405/abstract

Longer thaw seasons increase nitrogen availability for leaching during fall in tundra soils (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064013/meta

Spatial patterns and frequency of unforced decadal-scale changes in global mean surface temperature in climate models
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0609.1

Uncertainties in the attribution of greenhouse gas warming and implications for climate prediction
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024337/abstract

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3231-3

A new perspective on global mean sea-level (GMSL) acceleration
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069653/abstract

The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825216301246

Organic matter losses in German Alps forest soils since the 1970s most likely caused by warming
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2732.html

Reversal of global atmospheric ethane and propane trends largely due to US oil and natural gas production
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2721.html

A high resolution record of Greenland mass balance
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069666/abstract

Derivation and validation of supraglacial lake volumes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from high-resolution satellite imagery
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302267

Revisiting Extreme Storms of the Past 100 Years for Future Safety of Large Water Management Infrastructures (open access)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000368/abstract

Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011777/abstract

Role of ocean evaporation in California droughts and floods
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069386/abstract

Effects of a Warming Climate on Daily Snowfall Events in the Northern Hemisphere
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0687.1

Can significant trends be detected in surface air temperature and precipitation over South America in recent decades?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4792/abstract

On the ambiguous nature of the 11-year solar cycle signal in upper stratospheric ozone
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069958/abstract

Improved Retrieval of Cloud Liquid Water from CloudSat and MODIS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0077.1

Albedo climatology for European land surfaces retrieved from AVHRR data (1990-2014) and its spatial and temporal analysis from green–up to vegetation senescence
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024933/abstract

Using satellite-derived optical thickness to assess the influence of clouds on terrestrial carbon uptake
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JG003365/abstract

An observationally based global band-by-band surface emissivity dataset for climate and weather simulations
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0355.1

Decadal to centennial variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0443.1

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge (open access)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13366/abstract

Biodiversity in marine invertebrate responses to acute warming revealed by a comparative multi-omics approach
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13357/abstract

The effects of elevated CO2 and eutrophication on surface elevation gain in a European saltmarsh
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13396/abstract

How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France ? A generic modeling approach
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209631630016X

Micro-climatic controls and warming effects on flowering time in alpine snowbeds
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-016-3669-3

Spring bloom onset in the Nordic Seas (open access)
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3485/2016/

The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300589

Regional organisations and climate change adaptation in small island developing states
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-0991-6

Should we build wind farms close to load or invest in transmission to access better wind resources in remote areas? A case study in the MISO region
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302944

Paradigms and poverty in global energy policy: research needs for achieving universal energy access (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064014/meta

Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10640-016-0042-2

Likelihood of climate change pathways under uncertainty on fossil fuel resources availability
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2016/EE/C6EE01008C

A quantitative description of state-level taxation of oil and gas production in the continental U.S
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302920

Towards a low carbon growth in Mexico: Is a double dividend possible? A dynamic general equilibrium assessment
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302956

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, June 13, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 13, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Sensitivity of Arctic warming to sea-ice concentration
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD023953/abstract

New visualizations highlight new information on the contrasting Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice trends since the late 1970s
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302218

Conventional intensive logging promotes loss of organic carbon from the mineral soil
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13387/abstract

Bergmann’s rule in the oceans? Temperature strongly correlates with global interspecific patterns of body size in marine mammals
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12476/abstract

Quantifying the drivers of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GB005400/abstract

Climate impacts on multidecadal pCO2 variability in the North Atlantic: 1948–2009 (open access)
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3387/2016/

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2727.html

Variability of Tornado Occurrence over the Continental United States since 1950
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JD024465/abstract

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought in the Continental U.S. during the Past Century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069660/abstract

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1840-8

Anthropogenic influence on the frequency of extreme temperatures in China
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069296/abstract

Fire and Climate in Mongolia (1532-2010 CE)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069059/abstract

Increasing Trend of Pan Evaporation over Semi-Arid Loess Plateau under a Warming Climate
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0041.1

So, how much of the Earth’s surface is covered by rain gauges? (open access)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00283.1

Century-scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069628/abstract

Future Aerosol Reductions and Widening of the Northern Tropical Belt
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024803/abstract

Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3218-0

Anomalous mid-twentieth century atmospheric circulation change over the South Atlantic compared to the last 6000 years (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064009/meta

Tropospheric moisture in the Southwest Pacific as revealed by homogenized radiosonde data: climatology and decadal trend
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4780/abstract

Lower tropospheric mixing as a constraint on cloud feedback in a Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0042.1

Stratospheric Temperature Climate Data Record from Merged SSU and AMSU-A Observations
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0018.1

Amphibian Breeding Phenology Trends under Climate Change: Predicting the Past to Forecast the Future
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13390/abstract

Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13386/abstract

Anthropogenic-driven rapid shifts in tree distribution lead to increased dominance of broadleaf species
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13394/abstract

Assessing woody vegetation trends in Sahelian drylands using MODIS based seasonal metrics
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302280

Daytime warming lowers community temporal stability by reducing the abundance of dominant, stable species
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13391/abstract

Seagrass meadows are threatened by expected loss of peatlands in Indonesia
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13392/abstract

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13330/abstract

Near future pH conditions severely impact calcification, metabolism and the nervous system in the pteropod Heliconoides inflatus
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13350/abstract

On the declining relationship between tree growth and climate in the Midwest United States: the fading drought signal
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1720-3

Recent glacier changes in the Tien Shan observed by satellite gravity measurements
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115300321

Greenland Ice Sheet influence on Last Interglacial climate: global sensitivity studies performed with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (open access)
http://www.clim-past.net/12/1313/2016/

An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065003/meta

Conflict about Climate Change at the American Meteorological Society: Meteorologists’ Views on a Scientific and Organizational Controversy (open access)
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00265.1

Linking climate change perceptions to adaptation and mitigation action
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1718-x

An experimental investigation into ‘pledge and review’ in climate negotiations
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1711-4

Climate change and social transformations: is it time for a quantum leap?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.413/abstract

A people‐centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11625-016-0379-z

Cost-effective electric vehicle charging infrastructure siting for Delhi (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064010/meta

The relative importance of climate change and population growth for exposure to future extreme droughts
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1716-z

Future heat-related climate change impacts on tourism industry in Cyprus
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-0997-0

Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1707-0

Temperature and precipitation effects on agrarian economy in late imperial China (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064008/meta

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | 2 Comments »

New research, June 6, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 6, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

Isolating the Temperature Feedback Loop and Its Effects on Surface Temperature
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0287.1

Changes in anthropogenic carbon storage in the Northeast Pacific in the last decade
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JC011775/abstract

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land use and climate change
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12769/abstract

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago – Svalbard, Norway
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13381/abstract

Modelling interannual variation in the spring and autumn land surface phenology of the European forest (open access)
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3305/2016/

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818115301892

Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1837-3

Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069330/abstract

Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069314/abstract

Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier (open access)
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1191/2016/

Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1708-z

Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3200-x

Fast–slow climate dynamics and peak global warming
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3202-8

The Atlanto-Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3179-3

Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3199-z

On Cold Spells in North America and Storminess in Western Europe
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069392/abstract

Interdecadal Change in Tropical Pacific Precipitation Anomaly Pattern around the late-1990s during Boreal Spring
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0462.1

Tropospheric circulation during the early twentieth century Arctic warming
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3212-6

Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00704-016-1836-4

Seasonality of Global and Arctic Black Carbon Processes in the AMAP Models
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024849/abstract

Tambora 1815 as a test case for high impact volcanic eruptions: Earth system effects (open access)
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.407/abstract

1200 years of warm-season temperature variability in central Scandinavia inferred from tree-ring density (open access)
http://www.clim-past.net/12/1297/2016/

A 2000-year temperature reconstruction in the Animaqin Mountains of the Tibet Plateau, China
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/early/2016/06/03/0959683616646187.abstract

A refined method for calculating paleotemperatures from linear correlations in bamboo coral carbon and oxygen isotopes
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002931/abstract

Vulnerability of and risk to water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of West China under a scenario of climate change
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1709-y

Climate change adaptation: factors influencing Chinese smallholder farmers’ perceived self-efficacy and adaptation intent
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-016-0975-6

Impacts of drought and responses of rural populations in West Africa: a systematic review
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.411/abstract

Local communities’ belief in climate change in a rural region of Sub-Saharan Africa
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10668-016-9816-5

Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13382/abstract

Interactive effects of temperature and drought on cassava growth and toxicity: implications for food security?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13380/abstract

Visual climate change art 2005–2015: discourse and practice
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.400/abstract

Nitrogen fertilization challenges the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064007/meta

Making sense of climate risk information: the case of future indoor climate risks in Swedish churches
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300110

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

New research, June 2, 2016

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on June 2, 2016

Some new papers from last few days:

No significant increase in long-term CH4 emissions on North Slope of Alaska despite significant increase in air temperature
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069292/abstract

Evidence for methane production by the marine algae Emiliania huxleyi (open access)
http://www.biogeosciences.net/13/3163/2016/

Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2731.html

Circulation and meltwater distribution in the Bellingshausen Sea: from shelf break to coast
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068998/abstract

Ice flow dynamics and mass loss of Totten Glacier, East Antarctica from 1989 to 2015
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069173/abstract

Extraordinary runoff from the Greenland ice sheet in 2012 amplified by hypsometry and depleted firn retention (open access)
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/1147/2016/

Modeling of ocean-induced ice melt rates of five West Greenland glaciers over the past two decades
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068784/abstract

Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068378/abstract

Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064006/meta

A new method for generating the thermal growing degree-days and season in China during the last century
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4781/abstract

Impact of pollen resources drift on common bumble bees in NW Europe
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13373/abstract

Scale dependence of temperature as an abiotic driver of species’ distributions
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12463/abstract

Effect of water temperature on survival of early-life stages of marbled flounder Pseudopleuronectes yokohamae in Tokyo Bay, Japan
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113616300939

Geospatial assessment of long-term changes in carbon stocks and fluxes in forests of India (1930–2013)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818116301163

Modelling impact of freezing temperatures on reproductive organs of deciduous fruit trees
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192316302581

Distribution ranges and spring phenology explain late frost sensitivity in 170 woody plants from the Northern Hemisphere
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12466/abstract

Colony-specific calcification and mortality under ocean acidification in the branching coral Montipora digitata
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113616300940

Vulnerability of a semi-enclosed estuarine sea to ocean acidification in contrast with hypoxia
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068996/abstract

Space-based detection of missing sulfur dioxide sources of global air pollution
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2724.html

Arctic sea surface height variability and change from satellite radar altimetry and GRACE, 2003-2014
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JC011579/abstract

Revealing the early ice flow patterns with historical Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photographs back to 1960s
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068990/abstract

Global snow cover estimation with Microwave Brightness Temperature measurements and one-class in situ observations
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302036

Eroding permafrost coasts release low amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from ground ice into the nearshore zone of the Arctic Ocean
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GB005337/abstract

Glacial onset predated Late Ordovician climate cooling
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016PA002928/abstract

Learning the hard way: a case study of an attempt at agricultural transformation in response to climate change
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1698-x

Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300620

Climate change impacts on rainfed cropping production systems in the tropics and the case of smallholder farms in North-west Cambodia
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10668-016-9818-3

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10640-016-0036-0

Green and cool roofs to mitigate urban heat island effects in the Chicago metropolitan area: evaluation with a regional climate model (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064004/meta

Bias present in US federal agency power plant CO2 emissions data and implications for the US clean power plan (open access)
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064005/meta

Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10668-016-9813-8

CO2 emission and economic growth in Algeria
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516302713

Mode of action uncovered for the specific reduction of methane emissions from ruminants by the small molecule 3-nitrooxypropanol
http://www.pnas.org/content/113/22/6172.short

Impacts of artificial ocean alkalinization on the carbon cycle and climate in Earth system simulations
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068576/abstract

A global life cycle assessment for primary zinc production
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11367-016-1131-8

Life cycle assessment of consumption choices: a comparison between disposable and rechargeable household batteries
http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11367-016-1134-5

Posted in Adaptation & Mitigation, Climate science, Global warming effects | Leave a Comment »

 
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