AGW Observer

Observations of anthropogenic global warming

New climate papers, part 2 – impacts of climate change

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on September 24, 2013

In March I published a batch of early 2013 papers on climate related issues. It’s time to give another update. Since March, there has been lot of new papers, so I’ll divide them to 5 posts. There are 734 papers altogether, so these posts should keep you busy for a while:

Part 1. Reality of climate change (temperature, other climate parameters, climate extremes, future projections).
Part 2. Impacts of climate change (cryosphere, oceans, mankind, ecosystems, other issues).
Part 3. Mitigation and adaptation (greenhouse gases, mankind reaction, energy, technologies and products, adaptation, general mitigation).
Part 4. Past climate changes.
Part 5. Other papers (feedbacks and forcings, general climate science, other issues).

Part 2 contains papers that deal with impacts of climate change. There are 277 papers in part 2. Subsections are cryosphere (65 papers), oceans (29 papers), mankind (40 papers), ecosystems (122 papers), and other issues (21 papers).

See About New research from last week series for some information of my new research stream (the post discusses weekly posts which I don’t do anymore, but the parts about what papers get included are valid also currently).


Thinning of Arctic sea ice observed in Fram Strait: 1990-2011

Rapid decrease of observed mass balance in Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Tianshan Mountains, central Asia

Response of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in winter to Arctic sea ice decline

Interannual variability of arctic landfast ice between 1976 and 2007

Arctic marginal ice zone trending wider in summer and narrower in winter

Atlantic influence on spring snowfall over the Alps in the past 150 years (open access)

Critical mechanisms for extreme arctic sea-ice extent in summers of 2007 & 1996 (open access)

Charred forests increase snowmelt

Future projections of Greenland surface mass balance

Causes and consequences of mid-21st-century rapid ice loss events

CHAMP confirms CRACE results of Greenland ice mass loss

Accelerated mass loss of Kamchatka Peninsula glaciers in recent decades

Glacier response to current climate change and future scenarios in the northwestern Italian Alps

Meteorological controls on glacier mass balance in High Asia

Forests on thawing permafrost: fragmentation, edge effects, and net forest loss

Recent changes (1991-2010) in glacier mass balance and air temperature in the European Alps

Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999–2011 (open access)

Glacier mass balance of Norway 1961-2010 calculated by a temperature-index model

Alpine snow cover in a changing climate

Decreasing trends in North American snowpacks

Observed variations in multidecadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012

Characterization of recent glacier decline in the Cordillera Real, Bolivian Andes

Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high resolution (open access)

Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability

Glaciers retreating and shrinking in Columbia Icefield, Canada (open access, h/t @realglacier)

Observed variations in multi-decadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012

Changes in glaciers, climate and runoff in 2nd half of 20th century in Naryn basin, Central Asia

Future sea ice conditions in western Hudson Bay and consequences for polar bears

Antarctic sea ice trends seem to be still within natural variability

Atmospheric winter response to a projected future Antarctic sea-ice reduction

Model simulated atmospheric impacts of an Arctic sea ice minimum

Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall (mostly decrease but high latitude increase)

Reduced North American snow pack since 1979

Role of sea ice in global biogeochemical cycles: emerging views and challenges

Recent snowfall anomalies in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Time-variable gravity observations of ice sheet mass balance: precision and limitations of GRACE data

Energy budget of first-year Arctic sea ice in advanced stages of melt

Rapid loss of firn pore space accelerates 21st century Greenland mass loss

Frozen ground boundary shifting in response to temperature variations at northern China and Mongolia

Modelling past sea ice changes

Satellite estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 (open access)

The absence of memory in the climatic forcing of glaciers

Recent strong anticyclonic circulation has accelerated the decrease in summer Arctic sea ice

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change

Rapid thinning of lake-calving Yakutat Glacier and the collapse of the Yakutat Icefield in Alaska

Acceleration of snow melt in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core during the twentieth century

Recent climate and ice-sheet changes in West Antarctica compared with the past 2,000 years

Apparent Eurasian October snow cover extent increase might be dataset artifact (open access)

Arctic sea ice circulation and drift speed: Decadal trends and ocean currents

Snow cover variability in the Himalayan–Tibetan region

Physical mechanisms of European winter snow cover variability and its relationship to the NAO

An updated and quality controlled surface mass balance dataset for Antarctica (open access)

Surface mass balance model intercomparison for the Greenland ice sheet (open access)

Global glacier volume is projected to reduce by 29-41% during this century

Regional patterns and proximal causes of the recent snowpack decline in the Rocky Mountains, USA

Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion

Sea ice thickness estimations over the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, 2003-2009

Shorter snowfall season associated with higher temperatures over northern Eurasia (open access)

An observed negative trend in West Antarctic accumulation rates from 1975 to 2010

A negative feedback which might slow Arctic sea ice loss

A new bed elevation dataset for Greenland (open access)

Modeling Antarctic ice shelf responses to future climate changes and impacts on the ocean

Detection and attribution of observed changes in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover

Recent, very rapid retreat of a temperate glacier in SE Iceland

Impact of freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on North Atlantic climate variability


Mechanisms of global mean steric sea level change

Contribution of the pacific decadal oscillation to global mean sea level trends

Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of AMOC at 26.5°N

Tropical cyclones cause CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater in a high-CO2 world

Sea level changes at Tenerife Island (NE Tropical Atlantic) since 1927

ENSO Variability and Reversibility in Response to CO2 Concentration Changes

New study confirms the existence of a global sea–level acceleration

Australia’s unique influence on global sea level in 2010–2011

Anthropogenic acceleration of sea level rise quantified

Trends in the deep Southern Ocean: Implications for Antarctic bottom water properties & volume export

Accurate Determination of Sea Level Rise Vulnerability: A Solomon Islands Example

20th century sea-level rise inferred from tide gauge, geologically derived and thermosteric sea-level changes

Climate change and decadal to centennial-scale climate periodicities in NE Pacific

With sea level rise, the episodic swell will increasingly cause major impacts to Pacific islands

Influence of Southern Annular Mode on projected weakening of AMOC

Northern North Atlantic sea-surface height and ocean heat content variability

Semi-empirical and process-based global sea level projections

Trends of ocean acidification in California’s Santa Monica Bay timeseries

Large contribution of ice sheet and mountain glacier melt to recent sea level rise

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

Global trends in surface ocean pCO2 from in situ data

Oceanic hindcast simulations at high resolution suggest that the Atlantic MOC is bistable

Interaction network based early warning indicators for the Atlantic MOC collapse

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

Climate-model induced differences in 21st century glacier contributions to sea-level rise

Role of mode and intermediate waters in future ocean acidification

Increased rate of SLR since 1990 is not natural cycle but response to increased radiative forcing (open access)

AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 years

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is expected to weaken during 21st century


Global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in German private household sector (OA)

Climate change & river floods in EU: Socio-economic consequences & costs & benefits of adaptation

Identifying the exposure of two subsistence villages in Alaska to climate change

Temperatures and the Growth and Development of Maize and Rice: A Review

Measuring household vulnerability to climate change—Why markets matter

The science and economics of extreme warming

Impacts of extreme weather events and climate change concerning thermal power plants

Climatic Change has special issue on Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States

Extreme weather impacts on freight railways in Europe

Vulnerability of the oil and gas sector to climate change and extreme weather events

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions

Understanding the relationship between environmental change and migration

Climate change will significantly affect future crop production in southern Africa

China’s regional vulnerability to drought and its mitigation strategies under climate change

The Impact of Recent Heat Waves on Human Health in California

Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic tropical cyclones (open access)

Year patterns of climate impact on wheat yields

The potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa (open access)

Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change

Climate change impacts on global agriculture: higher food prices, significant losses in welfare

The impact of climate change on the European energy system

Does diurnal temperature range influence seasonal suicide mortality?

Impact of elevated CO2, temperature and precipitation on winter wheat yield in North China Plain

Global crop and high temperatures: historical trends and future projections (open access)

Temperature-related mortality in summer over the past 17 years has declined in Seoul, South Korea

Changes in the timing of hay cutting in Germany do not keep pace with climate warming

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate

The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and “climate migration” (open access)

Climate change and water resources in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal

Shifts in the seasonal distribution of deaths in Australia, 1968–2007

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The North Atlantic Oscillation affects the quality of Cava (Spanish sparkling wine)

Increasing atmospheric CO2 helps common allergenic fungal species to induce allergies

Climate has affected global crop yield variability over past 50 years (open access)

Climatic impacts on winter wheat yields in Picardy, France and Rostov, Russia: 1973–2010

Regional disparities in the CO2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields (open access)

Increasing aerosols offset benefits of warming on rice yields in Jiangsu Province, China

The impact of heat waves on children’s health

Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries


Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice

Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s

Tipping points in tropical tree cover: linking theory to data

Forecasting The Viability Of Sea Turtle Eggs In A Warming World

Drought footprint on European ecosystems between 1999 and 2010

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching

Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and land ecosystems (open access)

Earlier flowering of Cranberry causes ecological mismatch with bog copper butterfly

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history

Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climate and anthropogenic factors (open access)

Phenology predicts the native and invasive range limits of common ragweed

Warming increases biomass+reduces diversity in experimental wetland communities

Earlier tree leaf out with warmer spring temperatures

Climate change & fishing are necessary for explaining decadal biological variability in N Pacific

Vegetation response to extreme climate events on Mongolian Plateau 2000-2010 (open access)

Savanna vegetation phenology across the North Australian Tropical Transect

Respiration of Mediterranean cold-water corals is not affected by ocean acidification as projected for the end of the century (open access)

Temperature effects on food supply and chick mortality in tree swallows (open access)

Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions

Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes

Biodiversity ensures plant–pollinator phenological synchrony against climate change

Expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology

Widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing (only small role for climate)

Effects of ocean warming and acidification on the energy budget of an excavating sponge

The role of CO2 variability and exposure time for biological impacts of ocean acidification

Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China

Trends in landings of fish species potentially affected by climate change in Portuguese fisheries

Coralline algal structure is more sensitive to rate than magnitude of acidification (open access)

Seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton from space

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds

Elevated CO2 increases invasive potential of Phragmites australis in coastal marshes of N America

Bergmann’s rule is maintained during a rapid range expansion in a damselfly

Temperature modulates response of a sea urchin early life stages to CO2-driven acidification

Vulnerability of 208 endemic or endangered species in China to the effects of climate change

Climate change may induce contrasting seasonal impacts on fish bio-ecology and physiology

Hysteresis between coral reef calcification and the seawater aragonite saturation state

Predicting current and future global distributions of whale sharks

Shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

Future for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification (open access)

Heat freezes niche evolution

Intra-guild interactions and projected impact of climate and land use on North American pochard ducks

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

When you take forest out of rainforest, also rain leaves

Benthic buffers and boosters of ocean acidification on coral reefs (open access)

Climatic change causes abrupt changes in forest composition

Simulated changes in Northwest US climate in response to Amazon deforestation

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

Observed climate-induced changes in plant phenology in the Netherlands

Melaleuca genus might be able to adapt to climate change

Eucalyptus trees grown outside their native range have limited adjustment to elevated CO2 and climate warming

Past locust outbreaks in the Czech Lands: do they indicate particular climatic patterns?

Vegetation changes and their responses to climate change from 1982 to 2011 in middle Himalayans

Estimation of potential impacts of climate change on growth and yield of temperate tree species

Parasites and global warming

Plant response to climate change along the forest-tundra ecotone in northeastern Siberia

Projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of vertebrate species’ climatic niche evolution

Compositional shifts in Costa Rican forests due to climate-driven species migrations

Can marine cloud brightening reduce coral bleaching?

Climate change effect on birch and oak pollen seasons in the United States

Increasing Arctic cloudiness damps phytoplankton production increase due to sea ice receding (open access)

Climate-driven faunal movement routes and human-dominated landscapes

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations

Increased temperature reduces herbivore host-plant quality

Temporal variability of thermal refuges and water temperature patterns in Atlantic salmon river

Elevated CO2 level impairs the ability of damselfish to learn the identity of predators

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

Diatoms can be an important exception to temperature-size rules

Predicting species-specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records

Regional decline in growth rates of massive Porites corals in Southeast Asia

Climate-Mediated Shifts In Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches And Human Development

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Global Warming and Neotropical Rainforests: A Historical Perspective

Climate change might not affect the calling behaviour of anuran amphibians

Drought response of Norway spruce and European larch indicates high vulnerability

Dampening effects of long-term experimental drought on growth and mortality rates of Holm oak forest

Native bees buffer negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops

Range expansion through fragmented landscapes under a variable climate

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

Increased CO2 stimulates reproduction in a coral reef fish

Climate driven recent increase in Swiss fungi fruiting may have amplified forest carbon cycling

Earlier springs decrease peak summer productivity in North American boreal forests (open access)

Microclimatic challenges in global change biology

Does thermal history influence the tolerance of temperate gorgonians to future warming?

CO2 fertilisation has increased maximum foliage cover across the globe’s warm, arid environments

Predicting shifts in North American deer parasite distribution with climate change

Ocean acidification, warming, and tidal downwelling as factors in the future of cold-water corals

Earlier Arctic springs cause phenological mismatch in long-distance migrants

Do invasive species perform better in their new ranges?

The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards

Greater phenological sensitivity to temperature on higher Scottish mountains

Global warming might cause sharp decline to tropical-forest productivity in coming decades

Warmer spring limits tree growth due to drier soil in mountain forests of NW China (open access)

Global change affects the feeding ecology and contaminant exposures of East Greenland polar bears

Climate warming affects biological invasions by shifting interactions of plants and herbivores

Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change

Factors challenging our ability to detect long-term trends in ocean chlorophyll (open access)

Influence of climate factors on spatial distribution of Texas cattle breeds

Early onset of spring increases the phenological mismatch between plants and pollinators

Large-scale heterogeneity of Amazonian phenology (open access)

Climate change induced changes in Columbia Basin streamflows challenge the future of salmon (open access)

Pollen season and climate: Is the timing of birch pollen release in the UK approaching its limit?

Plant phenological records in northern Finland since the 18th century

Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology

Evaluating phenological responses using a lifelong study of first flowering dates

Olive tree phenology and climate variations in the Mediterranean area over the last two decades

Response of phytoplankton to climate variability associated with North Atlantic Oscillation

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming

Large turnover in local phytoplankton community composition in a warming ocean

Migrate or evolve: options for plant pathogens under climate change

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia

A novel algorithm to assess gross primary production for terrestrial ecosystems from MODIS imagery

The response of a mid- and high latitude peat bog to predicted climate change

Could some coral reefs become sponge reefs as our climate changes?

Temporal Distribution and Weather Correlates of Norway Rat Infestations in Madrid, Spain

The simulated atmospheric response to expansion of the Arctic boreal forest biome

Recent climate and fire disturbance impacts on boreal and arctic ecosystem productivity

Effects of seasonal snow on the growing season of temperate vegetation in China

Effects of climate change on birds in protected areas of Colombia

Annual plants change in size over a century of observations

Rapid change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than gradual change

The plant phenological online database (open access)

Rapid climate driven shifts in wintering distributions of three common waterbird species


Recent global dust trend and connections to climate forcing

Trends in storm-triggered landslides over southern California

Climate-induced increase of hypoxia in the Lake of Zurich

Temporal and spatial variability of the global water balance

Historic and future increase in global land area affected by monthly heat extremes (open access)

Will Future Climate Favor More Erratic Wildfires in the Western United States? (answer=yes)

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

Extremely warm temperatures as a potential cause of recent high mountain rockfall

Global hydrological cycle response to rapid and slow global warming

Controls on recent Alaskan lake changes identified from water isotopes and remote sensing

Soil moisture’s underestimated role in climate change impact modelling in low energy systems

Variability of vegetation fires with rain and deforestation in Brazil’s state of Amazonas

Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access (open access)

Rapid ice melting drives Earth’s pole to the east

Climate change increases North Sea hypoxia risk, less nutrient loading decreases the risk (open access)

Climate change increases frequency of shallow spring landslides in the French Alps

Increased mass over the Tibetan Plateau: from lakes or glaciers?

A significant increase in wave height in the North Atlantic Ocean over the 20th century

Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes

Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Observed ocean deoxygenation is not likely to be due to natural internal variability (open access)

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